Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 9:54 AM   Moonset 12:10 AM

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FXUS62 KRAH 130620 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 210 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will gradually shift off the Southeast coast today.
Low pressure will move in from the west tonight and Tuesday. A cold front will move through on Wednesday followed by weak high pressure Thursday.

NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
As of 210 AM Monday...

High pressure will move offshore today. This will allow WAA with a return SW flow this afternoon. An increase in high cloudiness will aid in keeping temperatures down a bit this afternoon as they begin to thicken. Highs are still expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s.

A broad southerly flow tonight will continue to increase moisture from the Gulf/Atlantic. An upper level trough will approach from the west later tonight. Most models suggest the likelihood of scattered to numerous showers develop overnight. QPF through 12z should be less than 0.25 of an inch at most locations. It will be mild overnight with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 210 AM Monday...

Showers are expected especially Tuesday into Tuesday evening before tapering off from the SW late Tuesday and Tuesday night. PW values peak Tuesday when 1.7 to 2 inch values are expected. It appears that a mid-level dry slot will cut off the main bulk of the showers late Tuesday afternoon and night. There s a chance of a few thunderstorms Tuesday; however, it is still unclear of how much instability there will be given the expected rainfall much of the morning keeping it stable. Highs are expected to reach only the lower to mid 70s keeping the instability low (with few breaks in the overcast anticipated). In-situ CAD should also develop with the rain Tuesday over the Piedmont potentially keeping highs in the 65-70 range.

Rain chances lessen Tue evening/overnight into early Wed as a dry slot moves in behind the mid-level shortwave. However, lingering low- level saturation should favor drizzle/shower chances over portions of the area, and perhaps some fog. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s.

QPF on the order of 0.75 to 1.25 still appears the highest probabilities (potentially less if convection along the deep south remains active well into Tuesday).

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 355 PM Sunday...

A mid/upr-level trough over the cntl Appalachians vicinity at the start of the medium range will move across and offshore the Middle Atlantic through Wed night, during which time an accompanying surface low will move across and offshore the srn Middle Atlantic. A trailing cold front will move southeast and across cntl NC during the afternoon-evening Wed. Progressive shortwave ridging aloft and underlying, weak surface high pressure will follow for Thu-Thu night. A perturbed, srn stream-dominated pattern will then prevail through at least Sat, with a pre-frontal, Appalachians-lee surface trough in place Fri and the passage of a frontal low and cold front Sat-Sat night.

Sensible weather related to the pattern described above will feature areas of light rain and drizzle Wed morning, followed by likely showers/storms along and ahead of the cold front Wed afternoon- evening. Veered and generally weak, unidirectional wswly flow suggests any associated severe weather risk will be low. Dry conditions will follow through early Fri, followed by at or above climo probabilities of showers and storms ahead of the the next system late Fri-Sat evening, and probably drying conditions by Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 120 AM Monday...

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with a steady increase in upper level cloudiness expected today and tonight.

Looking beyond 00z Tue, VFR conditions are expected through Mon evening, although light sprinkles will begin spreading into the western Piedmont during the evening hours. Widespread rain with a high chance of sub-VFR conditions and increasing/shifting winds aloft will overspread the area from SW to NE starting Mon night, lasting through Tue afternoon. Rain should become lighter and more patchy Tue evening/night, but sub-VFR fog and low clouds should linger through Wed morning. A band of showers with brief sub-VFR conditions is expected to swing through Wed afternoon/evening. Areas of sub-VFR clouds are possible early Thu morning, otherwise VFR conditions will dominate Thu. Scattered sub-VFR showers and storms are possible Fri afternoon.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Bannermans Branch
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Mon -- 01:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:28 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:10 AM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:28 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:54 PM EDT     1.17 feet High Tide
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Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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