Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Creswell, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 4:51PM Thursday December 5, 2019 5:08 PM EST (22:08 UTC) Moonrise 1:30PMMoonset 12:30AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Creswell, NC
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location: 35.8, -76.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 051950 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 250 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will pass overhead tonight then drift offshore Friday. The next cold front crosses Friday night with high pressure rebuilding over the area this weekend. A stronger cold front approaches early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 235 PM Thu . Latest analysis shows increasingly zonal flow aloft over the Carolinas with broad high pressure centered over the southeastern U.S. continuing to expand east and very little cloud cover. Quiet evening expected as high pressure gradually shifts directly overhead with winds expected to decouple soon after sunset. As such temperatures will quickly drop this evening as excellent radiational cooling takes hold. Went a degree or two below the coolest guidance and show a rate of cooling faster than guidance. Widespread low to mid 30s are expected with a few well sheltered areas dipping into the upper 20s. OBX will hover around 40 degrees.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/. As of 240 PM Thu . A strong shortwave trough currently noted on WV imagery over central Colorado is forecast to quickly slide and dig towards the southeast U.S. overnight aiding in weak aiding in weak cyclogenesis over the southern Mississippi Valley on Friday. High clouds from this developing low will stream over the area in the morning with increasing cloud cover as the shortwave approaches the Carolinas. QPF from this system will hold off until after sunset.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 215 PM Thursday . A weak system will produce an area of light rain Friday night and early Saturday, especially along the Crystal Coast. More unsettled weather is likely for Sunday night through at least Tuesday night as deep moisture returns ahead of a strong cold front.

Friday Night . A fast-moving cold front, will cross the area Friday night into early Saturday morning. The best chance of measurable rainfall continues to be from the southern coastal plain to the Crystal Coast where PoPs have been increased to likely.

Saturday through Sunday . Strong high pressure will pass to our north Saturday into Sunday with cooler temperatures in the low/mid 50s Sat accompanied by gusty north winds. Rather chilly Saturday night as winds diminish inland, allowing temperatures to drop to the lower 30s, ranging to the lower 40s Outer Banks. With the high moving east of the area Sunday, winds veer to E/ESE with temperatures moderating to the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Sunday Night through Wednesday . The combination of a deepening mid-level trough, mid-level shortwave energy and precipitable water values that will increase to 1.25 inches or better will lead to a more unsettled weather pattern with better chances of showers Sunday night and then off and on through midday Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front. Per trends in guidance, the highest QPF and PoPs will be Sunday night and again Tuesday night. With the more southerly flow, high temperatures will be above normal Monday and Tuesday. Highs Monday will be well into the 60s with a few lower 70s possible Tuesday. The strong cold front arrives Wednesday afternoon with quickly dropping temperatures, setting up widespread lows near or below freezing by Thursday morning.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term /through 06Z Friday/ . As of 1230 PM Thurs . High confidence in VFR through the period with high pressure continuing to gradually build from the southwest today, then settling overhead by Friday morning. Gusty conditions expected for the next few hours before winds rapidly calm down with decoupling. Dew point depressions should remain high enough tonight to preclude the threat of patchy fog.

Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/ . As of 215 PM Thursday . A period of sub VFR conditions, mainly in ceilings will be possible Fri night as an area of light rains moves across the area. VFR conditions are expected to prevail Saturday into Sunday as strong high pressure moves north of the region. Unsettled weather is expected Sunday through Tuesday with periodic showers and areas of sub-VFR ceilings during this period.

MARINE. Short Term /Tonight and Friday/ . As of 245 PM Fri . Latest buoy observations show seas 3-5 feet except at 44014, which still has 9 foot seas - thus there are probably some 6+ foot seas lingering in the northern outer waters. Winds have diminished to 10-15 knots with higher gusts with the exception of Diamond Shoals, which is stubbornly holding onto gusts around 25 knots. Given these current obs kept the SCA from Ocracoke Inlet north for the next hour or so but expect marine conditions to be completely below SCA by sunset. Winds and seas will continue to diminish as high pressure gradually settles overhead tonight and then drifts offshore Friday with winds veering SW at 10-15 knots by the afternoon.

Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/ . As of 215 PM Thursday . An active weather pattern this weekend through early next week will result in hazardous boating conditions with strong winds at times and a prolonged period of elevated seas AOA 6 ft. Fri night W winds 10-15 kt will become N and increase to 20-25 kt late following the passage of a cold front and developing strong CAA. N/NE winds will continue 20-25 kt Sat and Sat night with seas building to 4-7 ft. Sunday NE winds 15-20 kt will veer to SE and increase to 20-25 kt late with seas 3-5 ft building to 4-6 ft late. Mon through Tue winds ahead of a cold front will be S/SW 15-25 kt with seas 6-10 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ150- 152-154.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . MS SHORT TERM . MS LONG TERM . JME/CTC AVIATION . JME/MS MARINE . JME/MS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 44 mi51 min WNW 12 G 14 52°F 1017.2 hPa
FRFN7 45 mi129 min 2 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 46 mi39 min 54°F3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 46 mi57 min WNW 6 G 7 50°F 53°F1017.8 hPa

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Edenton, Northeastern Regional Airport, NC18 mi14 minN 010.00 miFair52°F31°F47%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEDE

Wind History from EDE (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:27 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:44 AM EST     2.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:54 AM EST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:55 PM EST     2.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:20 PM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.82.82.62.21.71.20.90.70.91.31.92.42.72.92.72.31.81.20.70.50.50.91.4

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:28 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:05 AM EST     2.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:12 AM EST     0.88 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:05 PM EST     2.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:29 PM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.72.82.72.521.51.10.90.91.21.72.32.72.82.82.521.40.80.50.50.81.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.