Wednesday, July8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Creswell, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:26PM Wednesday July 8, 2020 6:19 PM EDT (22:19 UTC) Moonrise 10:12PMMoonset 8:12AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Creswell, NC
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location: 35.8, -76.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 081950 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 350 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. An area of low pressure over South Carolina will slowly lift northeast along the North Carolina coast tonight and move north of the area on Thursday evening. The low will then gradually lift north along the Mid Atlantic coast through late week. A weak front trailing the low will linger near the region into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. As of 330 PM Wednesday . Surface low in the Wilmington area at late afternoon with areas of light to moderate showers rotating from east to west over inland areas. There is a bit of a lull in precipitation coverage along the southern coast especially, but think additional bands may approach that area as the low slowly lifts up the coast. Considering lowering PoPs/QPF a bit, but given a record high precipitable water value of 2.35 inches from this morning's sounding, heavy downpours are possible depending on where heavy rain bands set up. HRRR and 3km NAM have been inconsistent with rain placement, so opted to just keep PoPs and QPF high this evening and overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. As of 335 PM Wednesday . Surface low will move along or just off the NC coast during the day Thursday with moisture/precipitation wrapping back into the area from east to west as it passes. Some localized heavy downpours will again be possible and have kept PoPs in the likely category area-wide for tomorrow. Some embedded thunderstorms will be possible, but overall cloud cover and lack of instability should keep storms at a minimal level. Uniform high temperatures in the mid 80s are expected for Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 340 PM Wednesday . Low pressure will move slowly northeast along or just off the coastal Carolinas through Friday resulting in unsettled weather for late week. An upper trough and surface cold front will cross the area late Saturday with showers and thunderstorms again possible this weekend. Unsettled weather continues into early next week with broad troughing in control over the region.

Thursday Night through Friday . Surface low is forecast to move slowly off the Carolina coast Thu Night through Friday. There remains disagreement on whether the low remains inland or manages to traverse the warm Atlantic waters. If the latter occurs the low could evolve into a subtropical or tropical system just off the coast of the Outer Banks. The National Hurricane Center places the chance of tropical cyclone development at 50 percent (medium) once the low emerges over the Atlantic.

Guidance still diverges on how quickly the low exits the region on Friday, with the GFS continuing to be the fastest of the ensemble and the NAM/ECMWF slower. Given the GFS progressive bias leaned the forecast closer to the slower solutions. Deep moisture being drawn in by the low will promote increasing coverage and intensity of convection, and maintained high-end likely PoPs for this period. Storm total QPF through Thursday night ranges from 1-2 inches inland to 2-4 inches along the immediate coast. Temps should be near normal, with the potential for some below normal max temps for days with more extensive cloud cover and precip.

Biggest change to the forecast was to knock down PoPs on Friday as weak upper ridging will build in behind the departing low, helping to keep convective coverage much more isolated than the previous days.

Saturday and Sunday . As the low departs the area, a broad eastern CONUS trough will develop with a strong shortwave and cold front moving through the area late Saturday into Saturday night. These features will result in slightly above normal temps in southwesterly flow, with showers/thunderstorms possible with the weak front Saturday evening/night. Shortwave energy is forecast to rotate through the upper trough although typical timing issues of these disturbances precludes anything beyond chance PoPs for now.

AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Short Term /through 18Z Thursday/ . As of 1250 PM Wednesday . Mixed bag on aviation this afternoon with KEWN currently IFR with the remaining TAF sites in low-end VFR range. Locally heavy downpours may briefly reduce visibilities this afternoon. Later tonight from around 06Z on most all guidance is showing IFR or worse developing for the TAF sites as the low pres begins to lift N along the coast with low lvl flow becoming NE.

Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/ . As of 345 PM Wednesday . As a slow moving area of low pressure moves into the area, expect more widespread sub-VFR conditions through the long term as the area of low pressure tracks through or just off the Eastern NC coast. Guidance diverges beyond Thursday night, with duration of sub-VFR conditions dependent on track of surface low which looks to lift northeast of the region sometime late Thursday evening into Friday. A more typical summertime pattern will return for the weekend with diurnally driven convection during the afternoon and patchy fog/stratus in the early morning hours.

MARINE. Short Term /Tonight and Thursday/ . As of 345 PM Wednesday . Surface low currently located near the Wilmington area at late afternoon. There has been a small uptick in winds/seas this afternoon with SSE/SE winds 10-15 knots with a few higher gusts and seas 2-4 feet. As the low starts to move up and coast and develop a bit Thursday, winds increase to 15-20 knots and seas build to 3-5 feet. Some of the wave guidance shows a few 6-footers over the outer central waters, but kept capped at 5 feet for now until we have a bit more certainly over the future of the low. NHC continues to show a high chance of development of the low, but that most likely happens north of our marine area, but will certainly monitor for any changes. Consult the latest NHC products.

Long Term /Thursday through Monday/ . As of 350 PM Wednesday . High uncertainty in the marine forecast for Thursday Night and Friday as low pressure lifts along the coast. Intensity of winds will be dependent on whether low tracks over waters or stays inland. There remains the potential for SCA conditions for the northern and central waters, but with such high uncertainty held off on any headlines at the current time. Seas could build to 4-6 ft for northern and central waters, with 3-5 ft seas in all other waters later Thursday evening. Other period of concern for SCA will be Saturday/Sunday as front approaches and then stalls near the waters allowing for enhanced southwesterly flow of 15-20 kts with occasional gusts to 25 kt and seas reaching 6 feet at times for outer coastal waters.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to be widespread through Friday which could impact marine safety.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . CTC SHORT TERM . CTC LONG TERM . RF AVIATION . RF/CTC/MS MARINE . DAG/RF/CTC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 44 mi91 min SE 7 G 8 1012.9 hPa
FRFN7 45 mi139 min 2 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 46 mi83 min 77°F2 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 46 mi91 min E 8 G 8.9

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Edenton, Northeastern Regional Airport, NC18 mi24 minE 410.00 miFair79°F77°F93%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEDE

Wind History from EDE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5E6E5E6E8E5E8E5CalmCalm
1 day agoSW12
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S7SW5S5S5S6SW7SW4SW4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4SE5SE5S5E14
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Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:33 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:33 AM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:35 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:49 PM EDT     3.48 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.21.30.50.100.41.222.73.13.12.82.11.40.70.20.20.61.32.12.83.33.5

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:40 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:42 AM EDT     3.09 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:36 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:53 PM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.32.41.40.60.1-00.30.91.82.533.12.82.31.50.80.40.30.61.22.12.93.53.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.