Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 7:38AM||Sunset 6:00PM||Tuesday January 28, 2020 11:32 AM EST (16:32 UTC)||Moonrise 10:03AM||Moonset 9:37PM||Illumination 14%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farragut, TNHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KMRX 281352 AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Morristown TN 852 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020
UPDATE. MORNING UPDATE.
No major changes made for the morning update. Most locations south of Interstate 40 are seeing sunny skies for the first time in a while, locations further north remain under low clouds. Still expect clouds to lift further north through the day, but not completely clear out. Still have some observations and reports of fog in mainly the river valleys this morning. Expect most of these locations to have the fog burn off over the next couple of hours. A Special Weather Statement remains in effect to alert people of the possibility of the freezing fog through the morning.
AVIATION. 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Mostly VFR through the period at CHA/TYS, however with some MVFR/IFR fog this morning which was featured in the prevailing lines with tempos. Furthermore, any dense fog could result is freezing fog initially before surface temps begin to warm. Otherwise at TRI, expecting low VFR to MVFR cigs through the period. Late in the cycle, moisture will increase from the west as another system approaches, thus all sites feature increasing sky cover and lowering cigs. Winds will remain light and nly/nwly.
PREV DISCUSSION. /ISSUED 345 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020/ SHORT TERM . (Today through Tonight) . The upper pattern this morning is highlighted by troughing over the northeast CONUS favoring deep nwly flow across the OH/TN valley and southern Appalachian region, all while a closed H5 low rotates atop the TX panhandle. At the surface, high pressure continues to nose into the TN valley from the west while a region of cyclogenesis deepens over north TX beneath the aforementioned H5 cyclone. Closer to home, llv moisture trapped beneath an inversion continues to promote low stratus across portions of northeast TN and southwest VA, while mostly clear skies prevail elsewhere (generally south of I40). Latest radar analysis indicates no precipitation across the southern Appalachians, thus will cancel the current Winter Weather Advisory ahead of schedule. Otherwise for this morning, modest radiational cooling in the lower valley will support patchy fog, with some dense fog possible, perhaps some patchy freezing fog in outlying sheltered areas.
Moving through the rest of the period, dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures will highlight the weather on Tuesday, all amidst light winds. Temperatures look warmest across the southern valley/mtns/plateau given expected clearing and thus more insolation while sky cover gradually increases further north, yet still with temperatures at or above normal. Tonight guidance suggests the above H5 cyclone will open up as it slides into the Midsouth region, with an area of isentropic upglide out ahead. Precipitation associated with the area of upglide will shift east through northern AL/GA and Middle TN overnight, eventually sliding across the southern valley/plateau by periods end. With that, added in slight chances for rain, possibly rain snow/sleet mix for an hour or two before warming prevails. Low QPF and short duration should keep any of this possible wintry precip from yielding any impacts.
LONG TERM . (Wednesday through Monday night) . The extended period will be near seasonal temperatures with a couple chances for precipitation, including snow, across portions of the area.
On Wednesday, an upper trough will be present across the Southeast CONUS, but will lack phasing with the northern stream vort max. In addition, strongest jet dynamics and synoptic lift remain to our south across GA and FL which greatly limits precipitation coverage and QPF totals. For this reason, did not use higher than chance PoPs for this system at this time. Weak isentropic lift ahead of the low will likely produce some light precip, but totals will likely be 0.1 inch or less across valley locations with up to 0.2 inch in the mountains. Models are in better agreement in showing the best lift midday Wednesday through the afternoon hours, saturation through the DGZ, and 850mb temperatures at or around 0 to -2C. Based on these variables, there will be some snow across the higher elevations with any precipitation. With a lack of low-level Arctic air or CAA, temperatures will be too warm for accumulating snow across lower elevations; although a few flakes could mix in, especially along ridgetops. Light snow seems probable above 2500 feet elevation, but accumulations will be limited to areas generally at or above 3500 feet with 1 to 2 inches of snow possible above that level. However, this is very dependent upon total QPF and the timing of precipitation, and based on the lack of strong forcing, uncertainty in amounts is high. This currently appears to be a system with minimal or no impacts.
Ridging increases on Thursday with subsidence and a mostly sunny sky. An upper trough will be located across the Rockies, and this trough will transition east on Friday with increasing clouds and chances of precipitation by Friday afternoon as isentropic lift increases across the region. The uncertainty with this system is tied to how the southern shortwave phases with the northern shortwave. At this time, they remain separate with a weaker surface cyclone and a lack of cold air across our area until Saturday when phasing occurs and the surface cyclone strengthens just off the East Coast. In this scenario, the forecast would be very similar to Wednesday with light valley rain and mountain snow. Current QPF forecast amounts are generally light based on the forecast having phasing and the strengthening cyclone east of our area. Because of the uncertainty in phasing and location of best lift, did not go higher than chance PoPs. Northwest flow and lingering moisture on Saturday night may produce some additional light snow showers across the higher elevations. Temperatures are expected to be near or slightly below normal and generally below MOS guidance on Friday and Saturday.
The GFS and ECMWF are both in good agreement with strong ridging building in on Monday with SW flow increasing through the day ahead of the next trough across the Southern Plains. This should allow temperatures to rise about 15 degrees above normal with rain chances increasing Monday night.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 38 48 37 54 / 10 30 30 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 35 47 38 50 / 0 10 30 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 49 34 46 37 51 / 10 10 30 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 30 43 36 47 / 0 10 20 30 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . NONE. TN . NONE. VA . NONE.
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Knoxville, McGhee Tyson Airport, TN||10 mi||40 min||N 4||10.00 mi||Partly Cloudy||43°F||35°F||74%||1018.9 hPa|
|Oak Ridge, TN||12 mi||40 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||41°F||33°F||73%||1020.6 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KTYS
Wind History from TYS (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||SW||SW||SW||SW||W||Calm||Calm||NW||Calm||Calm||S||S||SW||Calm||W||Calm||SW||Calm||SW||W||SW||SW||SW||SW|
|2 days ago||W||W||W||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||W||SW||W||W||W||SW||W||SW||W||SW||SW||SW||Calm||S|
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GEOS Local Image of Southeast EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Morristown, TN (11,2,3,4)(on/off)  Help
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