Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 7:39AM||Sunset 5:59PM||Tuesday January 26, 2021 7:37 PM EST (00:37 UTC)||Moonrise 3:54PM||Moonset 6:08AM||Illumination 98%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farragut, TNHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KMRX 262353 AAA AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION . UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 653 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021
UPDATE. FOR 00Z AVIATION.
SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Wednesday Night) .
The main weather concerns/message for the short term is the following:
1) Rain changing to snow across the entire area late Wednesday and especially for the evening hours. 2) Significant snow accumulations for the far east Tennessee Mountains and parts of southwest Virginia for Wednesday night and Thursday morning. 3) Light snowfall amounts possible for the northern Plateau and northeast Tennessee Wednesday evening and night.
For Tonight, increasing isentropic lift across the Gulf Coast states will pull rain showers and mainly mid-level clouds north into the far east Tennessee Mountains, southwest North Carolina and parts of southeast Tennessee. Due to plenty of dry air below the mid-level moisture, most of the rain will not reach the ground (Virga).
For most Wednesday, the area will be in-between systems with broken clouds with some sunshine. Temperatures will be able to warm into the 50s across much of the valley.
For late Wednesday (generally 21Z and later) through Wednesday night, a strong upper trough will become negative tilted across the southern Appalachians. A near 160kts 300mb jet will move across the region placing the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians under the favored jet dynamics.
Strong Ageostrophic Vertical Circulation (AVC) due to jet dynamics will produce strong Omega across the dendritic snow growth zone for a couple of hours Wednesday evening through early Thursday morning. Initally the boundary layer will be too warm for snow across the valley but strong dynamic forcing will change the rain to snow for areas generally along and north of interstate 40.
Tricky forecast in determining where the snow line will be for accumulating snowfall. Low confidence in exact snow amounts across the northern and central valley locations. For the Mountains, snowfall confidence is much higher with amounts of 4 inches or more possible, thus have issued a Winter Storm Watch.
The strong dynamics will move east of the area soon after midnight Wednesday night/Thursday morning with orographic forcing keeping likely chances of snow there through around daybreak.
LONG TERM. (Thursday through Tuesday) .
A few snow showers or flurries may linger into Thursday morning but with the northwest flow/cold advection relaxing the precip will end and clouds will clear out with plenty of sunshine by afternoon. Surface high pressure and a building ridge aloft will keep things dry Friday, and after a cold early morning temperatures will recover to near/slightly below seasonal normals.
This weekend, models depict an upper trough moving east out of the Rockies with a developing surface low moving out of the Plains into the Ohio River Valley. Models then show surface development shifting to near the east coast then tracking northeast into Monday. Details on this system are still hazy given significant model disagreement, but right now it looks like much of the precipitation on the front end Saturday afternoon through at least the first part of Sunday night will be liquid, while on the back side there will be a changeover to more snow as colder air pushes in. However, it might be close on the front end over the northeast, so will include some wintry mix over the northeastern areas Saturday night into early Sunday. There may be some snow accumulation on the back side Sunday night through Monday night in the cold advection, particularly over the higher terrain.
Surface high pressure and ridging aloft will be building in again by Tuesday, so we should end the long term period with a dry day but with temperatures still below normal.
AVIATION. 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Incoming cold front will reinforce northerly winds at all sites tonight and Wed, with some showers and lower ceilings developing around the TN/GA border. Have a PROB30 to account for this at KCHA. Not confident in whether rain or MVFR ceilings will occur so just have SHRA with SCT015 bases in. That period of rain is brief and next shot of rain comes in with upper disturbance moving in after roughly 18z-20z time frame. Expect -SHRA to affect KCHA and KTYS, but doubt it makes it to KTRI by the end of the period. Flight categories remain VFR at all terminals, but should drop to low-end MVFR or even IFR levels at KTYS and KCHA as second round of showers moves in. Winds will be largely out of the NNE through the period, but may see a brief change to SW at KCHA just ahead of the upper disturbance during the afternoon hours.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 58 30 45 26 / 30 60 40 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 54 29 39 23 / 10 80 80 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 41 55 28 39 22 / 10 80 60 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 53 26 35 18 / 0 80 80 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . NONE. TN . Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains- Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.
VA . Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for Russell-Washington-Wise.
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Knoxville, McGhee Tyson Airport, TN||10 mi||45 min||SSW 5||10.00 mi||Fair||56°F||39°F||53%||1012.4 hPa|
|Oak Ridge, TN||12 mi||45 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||56°F||34°F||44%||1013.2 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KTYS
Wind History from TYS (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||N||NE||Calm||Calm||NE||NE||Calm||NE||NE||N||E||NE||NE||NE||NE||N||N||Calm||Calm||S||W||SE||N|
|2 days ago||NE||NE||NE||NE||NE||NE||NE||NE||NE||NE||NE||N||N||SE||NE||E||NW||Calm||NE||NE||NE||Calm||Calm||Calm|
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GEOS Local Image of Southeast EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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