Monday, April6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Farragut, TN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 8:04PM Monday April 6, 2020 1:03 AM EDT (05:03 UTC) Moonrise 5:34PMMoonset 5:40AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farragut, TN
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location: 35.86, -84.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN
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FXUS64 KMRX 052310 AAA AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION . UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 710 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

UPDATE. FOR 00Z AVIATION.

UPDATE. EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION.

Did a quick update to the grids to account for the showers that have developed on the Plateau. They should dissipate within the next hour or two, and stay west of I-40. Temperatures were adjusted as well to bring the forecast closer to obs.

DGS

AVIATION. 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A few spotty showers have popped up across NE TN and SW VA. While they are unlikely to affect the TAF sites before dissipating in a few hours, they may serve to raise dewpoints at TRI, which may lead to some fog development. For now, will carry MVFR vis for a few hours late tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast. Isolated showers will be possible again tomorrow afternoon.

DGS

PREV DISCUSSION. /ISSUED 335 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight and Monday) . A couple showers may still be occurring for a brief period this evening in extreme northeastern sections of the forecast area in the higher terrain before ending for the night. Lows will be slightly milder tonight with low level moisture just a tad higher. Saturation may be attained in spots across the Great Valley so some patchy fog is possible late tonight. The weak frontal boundary that was struggling to make it east of the Appalachians will stall out over Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee during the latter half of the short term period. There will be a corridor of deeper moisture and some instability in the vicinity of this boundary. Therefore, slight and low chance pops for a couple showers or thunderstorms were maintained across Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee with emphasis in the higher terrain on Monday. The forecast area stays in the warm regime and Monday's high temperatures will be very similar to today's highs, if not a degree warmer especially across southern sections.

LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday) . A split flow pattern will be in place to start the long term period as an omega blocking pattern is situated across central and eastern Canada. The polar jet will attempt to undercut this feature along the western Canadian border, while a southern stream jet remains situated across roughly the I-40 corridor from New Mexico eastward through late Tuesday night or perhaps into Wednesday. Meanwhile a cutoff low will be moving onshore in California Monday night into Tuesday morning, slowly shifting east through the desert southwest through midweek. Models diverge pretty quickly from Wednesday onward in their handling the evolution of the upper pattern, especially with respect to the western cutoff low. The key difference revolves around how quickly this upper low opens up and phases with northern branch energy, with the ECMWF continuing to hold a closed low as far west as the southern Arizona/New Mexico border as late as Friday evening while the GFS has an open wave Oklahoma and nearly absorbed into the outskirts of an eastern upper trough.

Bringing it back to the local level, expect much of Monday night to be dry, with increasing rain chances on Tuesday morning. A weak H5 shortwave will move east through the northern plains Monday night into Tuesday, with associated low pressure developing over the upper midwest and moving east into the Great Lakes. Strengthening southerly flow across the southeast will bring some better moisture into the southern Appalachian region, yielding showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms during the day Tuesday. A weak front associated with this low will approach from the northwest on Wednesday, giving another round of scattered showers. The best chance of rain during the long term may actually be on Thursday. Stronger shortwave energy will drop southeast out of Canada Wednesday night into Thursday, pushing another front quickly towards our area by early Thursday. This clears the area by Thursday afternoon.

For Thursday night onward, the forecast was trended towards the drier ECMWF. The GFS, as mentioned, phases the western cutoff low with the stronger shortwave energy that drops out of Canada late Wednesday night which eventually carves out a large trough over the northeastern quarter of the United States. The ECMWF holds the cutoff low back to the west much longer. Regardless of which model you believe at this moment, dry conditions for Thursday night through at least the first part of Saturday seems reasonable. Thus the forecast was trended largely in that direction, which favors the ECMWF solution.

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . NONE. TN . NONE. VA . NONE.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Knoxville, McGhee Tyson Airport, TN10 mi71 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F46°F49%1017 hPa
Oak Ridge, TN12 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair62°F52°F70%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTYS

Wind History from TYS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W5W8
G14
SW8W5W6NW3W5N7N3CalmSW3
1 day agoCalmNE4CalmCalmS4E3E3NE7E5NE6NE7N9NE9NE8E6NE7NE5NE4E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE4NE3NE3NE4CalmN5E3CalmNE3NE6N9NE7NE853NE7NE8N5CalmNE3NE4CalmNE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Morristown, TN (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.