Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Farragut, TN

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Key Messages:

1. Dry with warming trend continuing.

2. Southwest winds begin to increase Friday afternoon.

Discussion:

Surface high pressure shifts to the east tonight and Friday with low pressure across the upper Mississippi Valley. The increasing pressure gradient will result in southwesterly winds increasing on Friday afternoon. Otherwise, dry air remains across the region with low RH values. With the increasing winds on Friday afternoon, there will be an elevated wildfire spread risk Friday afternoon that we will highlight in the FWF.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Key Messages:

1. Dry and warming this weekend. High clouds increase late weekend ahead of a low pressure system.

2. Increasing confidence in frontal passage on Monday with chances for showers and thunderstorms. Overall severe risk is low because of minimal instability.

3. Subtropical high pressure and zonal flow behind the front means more near normal to above normal temperatures next week.

4. Increasing convective chances Wednesday/Thursday as southwest flow brings increasing moisture ahead of a shortwave trough.

Discussion:

Strong 592 dam 500mb ridge across south Georgia and northern Florida will help to keep us dry this weekend with warm air aloft and limited instability. Convection, and severe weather chances, remain to our west closer to the Mississippi River Valley.

By Monday, this ridge is expected to flatten in response to the strong shortwave which will allow a weak cold front to move across the region with showers and thunderstorms. With limited height falls, overall instability is low. The GFS shows MLCAPE less than 500 J/Kg during the afternoon with 40 to 50 kt EBShear values.
The overall severe risk is low, but the stronger storms could be capable of damaging wind gusts since gradient winds at around 5000 ft will be near 40 kt. Any thunderstorm downdraft would present a risk of strong winds.

We dry out on Tuesday with clearing conditions and zonal flow aloft resulting in near to slightly above normal temperatures across the region. High pressure quickly slides east of the Southern Appalachians by Wednesday with southwest flow returning.
This will lift the frontal boundary to our south back north across the region as a warm front with scattered showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Wednesday night. A notable shortwave will result in height falls and additional instability for scattered convection next Thursday. Exact forecast solutions are still uncertain, but the GFS forecast MLCAPE of around 1000 J/Kg and EBShear around 15 to 25 kt would support primarily multicell convection with primarily gusty wind hazards.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Gusty winds expected to develop during the daytime hours, flow will be up the Tennessee Valley, with strong southerly flow to 20 knots at KCHA, moving to the southwest at KTYS and KTRI. A peak gust up to 30 knots is possible. Winds will begin to weaken late as the nighttime inversion returns. Otherwise VFR conditions with dry weather persisting.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 59 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 59 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 82 58 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 52 84 58 / 0 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.