Farragut, TN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Farragut, TN

April 15, 2024 9:24 PM EDT (01:24 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:01 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM
Moonrise 11:28 AM   Moonset 1:57 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farragut, TN
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Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN
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FXUS64 KMRX 152344 AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 744 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Key Messages:

1.Chance of showers and thunderstorms in northern sections this evening, with a few storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Storms possible in NE sections again Tuesday afternoon.

2. Above normal temperatures continue for Tuesday, with highs in the 80s in most spots.

Discussion:

Convection has begun to develop along a pre-frontal trough across northern WV/VA. In the next few hours, the CAMS show additional development farther west, across southern OH/northern KY. This expected activity will propagate SE, and could reach our SW VA counties in the 00-06Z time frame. Right now, that area is capped, but RAP mesoanalysis shows weakening CIN in the next few hours.
Given the steep midlevel lapse rates leading to MLCAPE near 2000J/kg, low WBZ heights, and adequate shear, large hail may be a threat with the storms, along with damaging wind gusts. CAMS have some discrepancies about when this activity will dissipate, but expect a downward trend from 04-08Z as the boundary layer stabilizes.

A 850-700 mb ridge axis crosses the area in the morning, with a weak shortwave trough following behind it in the afternoon. With afternoon heating and MLCAPE developing to near 1500 J/kg in NE TN/SW VA, some strong to severe storms will be possible again, although lapse rates are not as steep as this evening. Warm temperatures can be expected again tomorrow, with highs well into the 80s for most locations outside the mountains.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Key Messages:

1. Increasing rain chances with showers and thunderstorms Wednesday.
A break in the rain Thursday. Rain chances increase with a chance for more thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

2. Turning much cooler Sunday and Monday behind cold front.
Lingering rain chances through at least Sunday with slowing of front.

Discussion:

Tuesday night the strong upper level ridge over the east and southeast will continue to combine with a low level southerly flow and increase warm advection into the region. After a very warm day Tuesday and increasing clouds Tuesday evening temperatures will be slow to fall. Lows expected in the lower to mid 60s.

An approaching low pressure system into the Great Lakes pushes a cold front through the Tennessee Valley Wednesday. Models are showing a weakening trend with this front as it shifts east as main system goes far to the north. Have kept higher rain chances then MAV/MET blend. ECMWF only model keeping the front and precipitation widespread with the other 2 models drier. Some storms that are able to form could still get moderate instability and shear late in the day with ample daytime heating into the mid to upper 70s and dew points in the upper 50s to near 60 along the plateau and southern valley. The plateau area should see the highest risk with marginal damage possible. The weak front should move east Wednesday night with a dry and continued warm day Thursday as no cold air will follow this front. Weak high pressure will slowly slide east late Thursday and Thursday night. A new low pressure area forms across the western southern plains Wednesday night and Thursday.

This weaker low and system will be a slower mover and ECMWF shows it weakening as it approaches Friday night. Not much shower and thunderstorm activity moves in with most of the convection to the southwest of the local area. The GFS shows a little more convection Friday but again shows redevelopment far to the west. It looks like overrunning along the front will bring more significant rainfall across the region Saturday and Sunday with the ECMWF and the GFS only Sunday. With the uncertainty Have rain chances through the weekend. Monday the front shifts east. Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday then cooling down Saturday and much cooler Sunday and Monday with highs only in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Some hi-resolution guidance continues to show a few isolated showers/storms developing near southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee tonight. Have included vicinity thunder mention at TRI but confidence is quite low in any direct impacts to the terminal.
Most likely timing seems to be through about 6z. Otherwise, mid to high level clouds stream across the area with light winds through TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 85 64 77 / 0 0 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 85 65 77 / 10 10 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 59 85 63 77 / 0 10 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 81 60 78 / 30 20 10 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KTYS MC GHEE TYSON,TN 9 sm31 minSW 0510 smMostly Cloudy75°F57°F54%30.00
KDKX KNOXVILLE DOWNTOWN ISLAND,TN 16 sm29 minWSW 0510 smClear75°F59°F57%29.99
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Wind History from TYS
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Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,



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