Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Farragut, TN
May 8, 2024 4:48 PM EDT (20:48 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:34 AM Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 5:41 AM Moonset 8:35 PM |
Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN
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FXUS64 KMRX 081944 AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 344 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Key Message:
1. Risk of severe weather remains through this evening and into the overnight hours. All hazards remain possible, large hail, heavy rain, flooding, damaging winds, tornados.
2. The highest risk areas from now through this evening will generally be along I-40, from Knoxville and westward, including the northern Cumberland Plateau. Then, the severe threat shifts further south, south of I-40, later this evening into tonight.
Discussion.
Scattered showers and a few storms are currently ongoing across the forecast area. This mornings round of showers and storms have significantly stabilized the atmosphere, generally from Morristown and all points northeastward into northeast TN and southwest VA.
These areas are still in a slight risk for severe weather but no longer under an enhanced risk. These are the areas that we feel will be the least favorable to see additional severe weather through the rest of the event. Having said that, do not let your guard down but just keep in mind the threat probabilities are now lower. With skies just now beginning to clear, if instability can recover across these areas then the threat levels will rise.
From now through late evening, the area of greatest concern will be along the I-40 corridor from Knoxville and points westward, as well as across the northern Cumberland Plateau. There is currently a tight instability gradient across middle TN and east along I-40 into the east TN Valley. Latest HRRR shows additional convection developing over the next few hours across middle TN and then progressing east along the instability gradient. All hazards will be possible with this next round of convection. The biggest question is how far north will the threat area be. Current sat imagery shows skies clearing across northern Cumberland Plateau.
HRRR shows this area having modest instability recovery through this evening. The general timeframe for this next round appears to be between 22Z and 03Z. HRRR also continues to show a few strong helicity tracks across this area, which is more reason for concern. Thereafter, a line of convection moves in south of I-40 corridor between 02 and 03Z and progresses east across the southern east TN valley and into southwest NC through 06Z. All hazards remain possible with this line of convection as well.
The final round of convection looks like it will push through the area between 06Z and 12Z. The severe threat during this last round is much more uncertain due to limited instability.
The biggest threat area, if any, should be limited to the southern TN Valley as this area has the best chance to have some remaining instabilty according the HRRR. All hazards remain possible with this final line of convection but much more uncertainty exists.
One area we have not thoroughly discussed is the flooding. Thus far, we have seen several areas receive between 1 and 2" of precip with isolated pockets of 2 to 3". With the next few rounds of convection, we are expecting an additional 1 to 2" with isolated amounts of 2 to 3". These additional rainfall amounts will become increasing problematic across areas that have already seen the higher rainfall totals. 6 hour FFG is generally 1 to 2 inches across the areas that have received the higher totals.
There are a few isolated areas with FFG as low as low as 0.5" in 6 hours.
Showers and storms should generally exit the forecast area tomorrow morning between 12 and 15z. A few showers and isolated storms may linger through mid afternoon across southwest NC. Dry conditions are forecast areawide by late afternoon with sunshine returning to most areas.
LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Key Message:
1. Cooler weather late week and into the weekend behind the cold front.
2. Lingering showers possible Friday with shortwaves within the northwest upper flow. Quick shortwave may bring some showers and thunderstorms Saturday (highest chance northern areas).
3. Drier weather expected Sunday and Monday with a gradual warming trend. Chance of showers increases again mid-week.
Discussion.
Behind the cold front on Thursday, cooler and drier air will arrive across the region within the northwest upper flow. Troughing and cooler air aloft will result in some diurnal convection on Friday afternoon with limited potential for thunder.
A stronger shortwave is expected to move through the upper level northwest flow on Saturday with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible on Saturday afternoon, with the highest chance for precipitation across our northern counties through southwest Virginia.
Ridging begins to build on Sunday and Monday with drier weather and a gradual warming trend into early next week. Chance of rain begin to return on Tuesday and Wednesday as a system is expected to develop across the Lower Mississippi Valley, but certainty in timing
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Messy TAF period as several rounds of showers and thunderstorms move across the area. Mostly MVFR conditions are anticipated but there will be a period of VFR conditions at CHA through this evening. A brief period of VFR also expected at TYS later this afternoon. Any thunderstorm passing over a terminal could produce gusty and erratic winds that differ from the official TAF forecast.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 86 62 76 / 90 60 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 81 59 70 / 90 70 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 65 83 58 71 / 90 60 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 77 57 67 / 80 70 30 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Cherokee-Clay.
TN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock- Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs- Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter- Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea- Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi- Union-Washington TN-West Polk.
VA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Lee-Russell-Scott VA- Washington VA-Wise.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 344 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Key Message:
1. Risk of severe weather remains through this evening and into the overnight hours. All hazards remain possible, large hail, heavy rain, flooding, damaging winds, tornados.
2. The highest risk areas from now through this evening will generally be along I-40, from Knoxville and westward, including the northern Cumberland Plateau. Then, the severe threat shifts further south, south of I-40, later this evening into tonight.
Discussion.
Scattered showers and a few storms are currently ongoing across the forecast area. This mornings round of showers and storms have significantly stabilized the atmosphere, generally from Morristown and all points northeastward into northeast TN and southwest VA.
These areas are still in a slight risk for severe weather but no longer under an enhanced risk. These are the areas that we feel will be the least favorable to see additional severe weather through the rest of the event. Having said that, do not let your guard down but just keep in mind the threat probabilities are now lower. With skies just now beginning to clear, if instability can recover across these areas then the threat levels will rise.
From now through late evening, the area of greatest concern will be along the I-40 corridor from Knoxville and points westward, as well as across the northern Cumberland Plateau. There is currently a tight instability gradient across middle TN and east along I-40 into the east TN Valley. Latest HRRR shows additional convection developing over the next few hours across middle TN and then progressing east along the instability gradient. All hazards will be possible with this next round of convection. The biggest question is how far north will the threat area be. Current sat imagery shows skies clearing across northern Cumberland Plateau.
HRRR shows this area having modest instability recovery through this evening. The general timeframe for this next round appears to be between 22Z and 03Z. HRRR also continues to show a few strong helicity tracks across this area, which is more reason for concern. Thereafter, a line of convection moves in south of I-40 corridor between 02 and 03Z and progresses east across the southern east TN valley and into southwest NC through 06Z. All hazards remain possible with this line of convection as well.
The final round of convection looks like it will push through the area between 06Z and 12Z. The severe threat during this last round is much more uncertain due to limited instability.
The biggest threat area, if any, should be limited to the southern TN Valley as this area has the best chance to have some remaining instabilty according the HRRR. All hazards remain possible with this final line of convection but much more uncertainty exists.
One area we have not thoroughly discussed is the flooding. Thus far, we have seen several areas receive between 1 and 2" of precip with isolated pockets of 2 to 3". With the next few rounds of convection, we are expecting an additional 1 to 2" with isolated amounts of 2 to 3". These additional rainfall amounts will become increasing problematic across areas that have already seen the higher rainfall totals. 6 hour FFG is generally 1 to 2 inches across the areas that have received the higher totals.
There are a few isolated areas with FFG as low as low as 0.5" in 6 hours.
Showers and storms should generally exit the forecast area tomorrow morning between 12 and 15z. A few showers and isolated storms may linger through mid afternoon across southwest NC. Dry conditions are forecast areawide by late afternoon with sunshine returning to most areas.
LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Key Message:
1. Cooler weather late week and into the weekend behind the cold front.
2. Lingering showers possible Friday with shortwaves within the northwest upper flow. Quick shortwave may bring some showers and thunderstorms Saturday (highest chance northern areas).
3. Drier weather expected Sunday and Monday with a gradual warming trend. Chance of showers increases again mid-week.
Discussion.
Behind the cold front on Thursday, cooler and drier air will arrive across the region within the northwest upper flow. Troughing and cooler air aloft will result in some diurnal convection on Friday afternoon with limited potential for thunder.
A stronger shortwave is expected to move through the upper level northwest flow on Saturday with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible on Saturday afternoon, with the highest chance for precipitation across our northern counties through southwest Virginia.
Ridging begins to build on Sunday and Monday with drier weather and a gradual warming trend into early next week. Chance of rain begin to return on Tuesday and Wednesday as a system is expected to develop across the Lower Mississippi Valley, but certainty in timing
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Messy TAF period as several rounds of showers and thunderstorms move across the area. Mostly MVFR conditions are anticipated but there will be a period of VFR conditions at CHA through this evening. A brief period of VFR also expected at TYS later this afternoon. Any thunderstorm passing over a terminal could produce gusty and erratic winds that differ from the official TAF forecast.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 86 62 76 / 90 60 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 81 59 70 / 90 70 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 65 83 58 71 / 90 60 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 77 57 67 / 80 70 30 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Cherokee-Clay.
TN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock- Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs- Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter- Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea- Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi- Union-Washington TN-West Polk.
VA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Lee-Russell-Scott VA- Washington VA-Wise.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KTYS MC GHEE TYSON,TN | 9 sm | 55 min | SE 06 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 72°F | 63°F | 73% | 29.84 | |
| KDKX KNOXVILLE DOWNTOWN ISLAND,TN | 16 sm | 13 min | calm | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 73°F | 66°F | 78% | 29.83 |
Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,
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