Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nags Head, NC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 725 AM Sun...Quiet weather continues for another day.
Yesterday's mid-level split flow regime is consolidating into broader troughing as northern stream shortwave digs towards the Great Lakes, spurring surface cyclogenesis over the Midwest early this morning. The s/w is forecast to continue diving into the mid-Atlantic through Monday morning, while the surface low continues to drift eastward and slowly deepen, progged to be over the Gulf of Maine by daybreak on Monday.

The aforementioned low will be dragging a cold front towards the Carolinas, although the frontal passage itself won't occur until Monday. The tightening pressure gradient will result in breezier southwest winds today, and some gusts up to 25 mph are possible across the inner coastal plain this afternoon. More noticeably, pre-frontal WAA will bump up low-level thicknesses further allowing highs to nudge near the 80-degree mark - a couple degrees above average. Sunny skies will prevail as column remains dry at all levels.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/
As of 345 AM Sun...Front will continue its sojourn southward but with some weak low to mid-level moisture advection. This may support some thin mid-level cloud decks drifting over the region early Mon AM, but otherwise clear skies continue to prevail.
Winds remain elevated overnight, and combined with ongoing WAA temperatures will be quite mild, in the low 60s inland but upper 60s to around 70 along area beaches. Winds will keep low-levels mixed and inhibit any fog threat.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 330 AM Sun... A dry cold front pushes across the region on Monday while strong high pressure ridging gradually builds in from the west on Tuesday and Wednesday. Ridging eventually becomes centered over the Eastern Seaboard late in the week continuing to bring cool but dry weather to eastern North Carolina.

Monday through Wednesday...Broad troughing will remain over the Eastern Seaboard on Monday as a shortwave rounds the base of this trough and pushes offshore Mon night. At the surface, cold front will be located across the Triad region to start the day but will quickly push off the coast by Mon night. Forecast guidance and latest sounding data continue to suggest that ENC will be too dry to promote any precip with this frontal passage and this front will mainly be denoted by the drop in dewpoints behind the front and a wind shift. Out ahead of the front W-SW'rly flow and increasing low level thicknesses will support highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Mon, while lows Mon evening will be cooler as temps get into the upper 40s to 50s across ENC.

On Tuesday and Wednesday upper level troughing begins to sharpen and dig deeper into the Southeast as a much stronger shortwave rounds the base of the upper level trough. As this occurs, we will get some additional moisture and cloud cover streaming in from the north and west in association with the incoming shortwave. GFS/GEFS and as of recently the EPS have trended wetter over the last day or so for Wed. However, the ECMWF/Canadian, and NAM show a much drier atmosphere with this shortwave being starved for moisture before it moves out over the Gulf Stream and precip quickly develops well offshore. Given much of the guidance remains dry and NW'rly flow typically does not carry much moisture with it, elected to keep PoP's sub-mentionable but will need to monitor the trends in the coming days in case showers need to be added to the forecast on Wed.
Much cooler temps behind the front with highs only getting into the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows getting into upper 30s/40s inland and 50s along the OBX each night.

Thursday into the weekend...Upper troughing eventually pushes offshore Thurs and Fri as an upper level ridge builds in from the west. At the surface high pressure becomes centered over the Eastern Seaboard by Fri keeping things dry across ENC. Temps will gradually moderate into the weekend as well even under NE'rly flow as low level thicknesses creep up. Expect the coolest day to be Thursday with temps still in the 60s across the area but highs will quickly warm into the 70s by the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /Through 12Z Monday/...
As of 725 AM Sun...Apart from some very shallow fog observations at OAJ, VFR has held strong overnight and will continue to do so through the period as very dry airmass remains over the Carolinas. High pressure will gradually weaken through the day as mid-level shortwave and attendant surface low cross the mid- Atlantic today, dragging a cold front toward the region. The tightening pressure gradient ushers in gustier southwesterly winds, with some peak gusts reaching up to 20 kt at times across the inner coastal plain especially in the afternoon. Some thin mid-level clouds may intrude late in the period as moisture increases modestly ahead of the front.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...VFR conditions will continue through the entire period. However, as a cold front moves through the region on Mon it will shift ongoing SW'rly winds Mon morning at 5-15 kts to a NW'rly direction at 5-10 kts with gusts up near 15-20 kts at times Mon afternoon and evening. Light NW'rly winds then persist through the rest of the period.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 355 AM Sun...Benign boating conditions remain this morning. Regional observations show west to southwesterly winds of 5-10 kt with seas at around 2-3 feet. Periods have shortened through the day, now at around 11-12 seconds.

Quiet conditions will not last long as cold front approaches from the west. Southwesterly gradient winds increase this afternoon and tonight, reaching up to 20-25 kt sustained after sunset with frequent gusts up to 30 kt. Offshore, this surge will build seas up to 4-6 feet with a few higher waves likely across Raleigh Bay. Soundside, choppy waters will reach heights of around 2-3 feet. Apart from some minor timing adjustments, inherited SCA headlines were largely left intact from the previous forecast.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...SCAs will be in place across all waters outside of the Neuse/Bay/Pamlico and Pungo Rivers as elevated SW'rly flow out ahead of an incoming cold front persists with widespread 15-25 kt winds and 25-30 kt gusts across the area. In response to the increased SW'rly flow seas will be 4-7 ft Mon morning across our coastal waters. Aforementioned cold front will then track across the region Mon evening shifting the winds to a NW'rly direction from N to S at 10-20 kts with gusts up near 25 kts early Mon evening before winds ease further Mon night down to 10-15 kts with gusts up near 20 kts. This will briefly end SCA's across our waters. However a second round of SCA conditions will be possible Tue night as a second surge of NW'rly winds associated with an incoming trough will impact our waters before easing Wed into Thurs. Seas will remain around 4-6 ft into Mon night before lowering to 2-5 ft by Tue.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ131-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158.