Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nags Head, NC

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:22PM Thursday July 18, 2019 2:01 PM EDT (18:01 UTC) Moonrise 8:44PMMoonset 6:25AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 1006 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms early this afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nags Head, NC
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location: 35.91, -75.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 181418
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1018 am edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
The area will remain between subtropical high pressure offshore
and a weak troughing inland through early next week. A front
will approach and stall near the area by the middle of next
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1015 am thu... Much of the cirrus clouds are working its
way east of the area very slowly, but the low stratus coverage
mainly along the coast remains. Made minor adjustments to the
temperature forecast, but it will depend on the evolution of
this cirrus and low stratus over the next few hours. Even the
temperature adjustments (trimmed a degree or two), temperatures
are expected to rebound quickly as soon as the clouds clear.

A weak shortwave will shift over eastern north carolina today.

Relatively dry mid-levels this morning will moisten by this
afternoon as the main lobe of shortwave energy, based around 600
mb, moves overhead. CAPE values around 3000-3500 j kg expected
across much of the area, with values of 4000+ j kg possible for
locations that remain sunny well into the afternoon. Hi-res
guidance indicates that greatest coverage and intensity of
storms this afternoon will occur along a corridor from
jacksonville to new bern to belhaven. A few storms producing
gusty winds and hail are possible, but lack of shear will
discourage storm organization and widespread severe weather is
not anticipated.

Hot conditions will continue, with highs reaching into the mid
to upper 90s for locations where cloud coverage remains minimal
into the afternoon, with persistent high humidity bringing heat
index values of around 105 or slightly higher, and prompting the
issuance of a heat advisory for the entire area.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
As of 330 am thu... The very weak shortwave will breakdown into
more of a generally weakness in the trough aloft tonight. Deep
layer moisture and conditional instability will keep at least a
mention of slight chance pops in the forecast overnight, with
greatest chances near the greater low level lapse rates over the
ocean. Generally warm and muggy conditions persist with lows
about 5 to 10 degrees above normal for most.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
As of 330 am thu... The long term period will be characterized
by mainly zonal upper level flow across the northern CONUS with
the southern u.S. Stuck under a broad ridge through the end of
the week. By the beginning of next week, a deepening low over
the gulf of alaska will help promote a more amplified pattern
across the CONUS with strong ridging over the west and a
deepening trough over the east. The resultant impacts to eastern
nc weather is a typical summer surface pattern into early next
week with high pressure over the western atlantic and a trough
of low pressure inland. By the end of the period, the more
pronounced upper troughing will help push a front into the
region and increase precip coverage across the region.

Fri... On Fri hgts begin to build back over the
region as ridge expands eastward. Maintained small chance pop for
typical diurnal shra tsra with better chc inland. Hot temps and
high humidity will cont Fri with apparent temps at or above 105 most
spots in the afternoon.

Saturday and Sunday... Continued hot and very humid for the weekend
with similar temperatures both days. Thicknesses increase
with 850 mb temps reaching 20+ c across eastern nc. As the upper
level trough begins to amplify to the west heights will fall some
Sunday, but temperatures will be very similar. Expect highs over
the weekend to average in the mid to upper 90s. Dew points
remain high and heat indices will range 105 to 110. Scattered
convection is possible along the sea breeze each day but with
the ridge firmly in control coverage will be limited. Capping
pops at 30% for the period.

Monday thru wed... A break in the heat is finally in sight as
the upper level trough amplifies, dropping heights across the
region and helping to usher a front south across the mid-
atlantic and into the carolinas by mid-week. There are still
model differences regarding timing and progression of the front
which precludes likely pops for now, but the best chance of precip
looks to be sometime Tuesday. Regardless,
the front will be accompanied with deep moisture and a
pronounced mid- level shortwave. It should be noted the
front is expected to stall with plenty of moisture to work with (pwats
of 2+ inches) and multiple subtle lobes of mid-level energy riding
along the boundary. Thus some respectable rainfall totals are possible,
although the question of where the front stalls remains unanswered.

Behind the front highs will struggle to crack 90, and fall even farther
by the middle of the week.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
Short term through Thu night ...

as of 7 am thu...VFR conditions will prevail through the period
in southwest flow that will become gusty this morning.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form across
the area this afternoon, with hi-res guidance consistently
indicating that storm coverage and duration will be highest
near new bern and along the sea breeze this afternoon, but at
least brief flight restrictions are possible at all terminals
during passing showers and thunderstorms.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 330 am thu... Typical summertime pattern this period with
high pressure offshore and a trough of low pressure inland, with
mainly scattered showers and storms Thu and fri, and more
isolated coverage Sat and sun. As ridge begins to break down mon
may see an uptick in shra tsra. Patchy fog or stratus will be
possible early each morning, especially in areas that receive
rain.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 1015 am thu... Moderate southwesterly winds this morning
will trend upwards by midday, bringing wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt
to water bodies most exposed to southwesterly winds. A small
craft advisory remains in effect for the coastal waters and
sounds south of oregon inlet, with the potential for occasional
winds to 25 kt across the croatan and roanoke sounds early the
afternoon, but the duration too short to justify inclusion in
the sca. Seas will increase to 4 to 6 ft in response to the
winds, with elevated winds and seas persisting through tonight.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 230 pm wed... Tight pressure gradient will cont through
fri between inland surface trough and offshore high pres. This
will result in moderate SW flow 15-25 kt Thu night thru Friday
with some 6 ft seas expected outer central SRN wtrs where sca
will be up. The gradient relaxes somewhat Fri night thru Sunday
with winds dropping to 10 to 20 kts and seas 3 to 5 ft. As front
approaches early next week SW winds increase again to 15 to 25
kt Mon with again some 6 foot seas outer wtrs.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for ncz029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 am edt
Friday for amz135.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 9 pm edt
Friday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 6 pm edt
Friday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Bm cb
short term... Cb
long term... Ms
aviation... Ms cb
marine... Bm ms cb
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 8 mi68 min S 20 G 24 84°F 85°F1015.1 hPa
44086 11 mi37 min 78°F3 ft
44095 18 mi46 min 80°F3 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 21 mi62 min SSW 14 G 19 89°F 58°F1013.9 hPa (-0.7)
FRFN7 21 mi122 min 1 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 24 mi62 min 82°F2 ft
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 49 mi62 min SSW 11 G 15 83°F 80°F1016 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC6 mi82 minSW 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F77°F67%1014.9 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC9 mi82 minSW 310.00 miFair91°F76°F63%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S12
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1 day agoS13
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SW6SW6SW6S4SW9SW8SW9SW8SW7SW10SW8SW9SW8SW6SW7SW7SW8SW8SW7SW9SW8
2 days agoNE8NE8E6E5E4E7CalmCalmNE4E3CalmCalmSE3CalmSE3CalmS4SW7SW4SW5SW5S4S8S9

Tide / Current Tables for Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina
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Jennetts Pier (ocean)
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Thu -- 03:16 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:08 AM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:10 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:23 PM EDT     3.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.10.40.10.20.71.52.32.93.232.61.81.10.50.20.40.91.72.63.33.63.63.2

Tide / Current Tables for Oregon Inlet Marina, Pamlico Sound, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.