Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nags Head, NC

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 7:53PM Sunday August 18, 2019 2:33 AM EDT (06:33 UTC) Moonrise 8:47PMMoonset 8:02AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 950 Pm Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Overnight..S winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers late this evening, then showers with a chance of tstms.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 6 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nags Head, NC
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location: 35.91, -75.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 180146
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
946 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will track northeast across eastern nc late
tonight and Sunday. High pressure offshore will extend west into
eastern north carolina through mid week. A cold front will
approach late week.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
As of 945 pm Saturday... Precip has briefly ended most areas
with just lingering shra cst. Regional rdr shows increasing shra
far SE N carolina assoc with low pres. These shra and a few
tsra will spread NE and impact the area overnight. Best cvrg
with locally heavy rain likely greater than 1 inch will be near
cst. Have low chc to no pops currently that will will ramp up to
categorical cst to chc deep inland overnight.

Prev disc... Latest surface analysis indicates high pressure
offshore with a weak area of low pressure near charleston, sc,
lifting northeast along the coast. Quasi-zonal flow aloft with
weak shortwave troughs moving through the area, aiding in
convective development persistence at times.

Convection currently remains along a line from bladen county
ene to hyde county, with additional showers and thunderstorms
developing off CAPE fear moving towards the region. Will
maintain likely pops for these features near and just inland of
the coast. SPC mesoanalyses indicate a large swath of pwats at
or above 2.25 inches stretching from coastal ga to cape
hatteras. Given instability and shear remain weak,
localized poor drainage flooding remains the biggest hazard
through this afternoon and tonight. Overnight temps will remain
warm with minimum temps in the low 70s inland to mid 70s along
the coast and outer banks.

The area of low pressure currently near charleston, sc, will
lift northeast into eastern nc between 06-12z tonight. Deep
tropical moisture will be embedded in this system. Continued
previous trend of pops coincident with passage of low starting
late tonight. There may be a flood concern for the eastern
counties outside of the coastal plain, and will have to monitor
for a flash flood issuance with later updates.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
As of 3 pm Saturday... By sunrise Saturday, the surface low is
expected to be near jacksonville, lifting northeast towards
norther dare county throughout the day. There will be a
precipitation gradient from west to east across eastern nc with
the low pressure passage, and continued highest pops for eastern
half of the area. QPF for the low passage ranges from a half-
inch inland to 1-3 inches along the coast from carteret county
to dare county. Given recent rainfall from the past few days and
pwats near climatological normals, with shear and instability
remaining weak, biggest threat with this low will be potential
for flash flooding and poor drainage flooding. There may be a
flood concern for the eastern counties outside of the coastal
plain, and will have to monitor for a flash flood issuance with
later updates. Temps will be dependent on surface low track and
associated precipitation, with highs ranging from near 90 inland
to 80s near the coast.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
As of 310 am sat... Weak broad upper troughing with rising
heights will remain over the area into early next week. At the
surface, low pressure will track northeast across the nc coastal
plain Sunday with heavy rain possible through the afternoon. A
more amplified upper trough is forecast for late next week which
should push a stronger cold front into and possibly through the
region late in the period. This pattern will keep warm muggy
and unsettled conditions across eastern nc through late next
week.

Sun... Expecting widespread shower and thunderstorm activity to
move across the area through early afternoon as the
aforementioned low tracks across the region. The shower activity
should become scattered in the mid to late afternoon. Locally
heavy amounts are possible with pw values forecast to be around
2.5".

Mon thru fri... Typical summer pattern expected with offshore
high pressure and an inland trough producing a very warm and
muggy southerly flow across the area. Scattered mainly afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected through mid
week. The showers and thunderstorms could become more numerous
thu and Fri as a cold front moves into the area in response to
the amplifying mid level flow. Temps will cont near to slightly
above normal with upr 80s and lower 90s for highs and muggy 70s
for lows.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
Short term through Sunday ...

as of 630 pm sat... Tricky fcst with potential st fog and
convection overnight into Sun morn. Area of ifr stratus has
formed SRN tier as precip is ending. This may briefly lift thru
evening then majority of guidance shows ifr CIGS developing
again after 06z. Shra and a few tsra will increase as well late
with ERN sites having best chc. Low clouds shld grad lift thru
sun morn and expect mainlyVFR in the aftn with much less precip
cvrg in wake of low pres.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday ...

as of 310 am sat... Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected through early Sun afternoon as low
pressure tracks across the area. Scattered mainly afternoon and
evening showers and tstms expected through Mon through Wed with
brief periods of subVFR conditions. In addition, some patchy
fog st poss late night early morn with high dewpts and rather
light winds.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 945 pm Saturday... Many of the higher res mdls are showing
a period of ssw winds 20 to 25 kts over at least ERN portion of
pamlico sound late tonight into Sun aftn... Based on this will
issue a short duration SCA for these wtrs. Shra tsra have
briefly diminished but expected to ramp up overnight thru first
part of Sunday.

Prev disc... Latest surface and buoy data indicate SW ssw winds
5-15 kt across the waters with seas ranging 3 to 5 ft. Gradient
winds will relax some through later today, though low pressure
moving north through the eastern nc waters tonight will cause
southerly winds to increase to 15-25 kt with higher gusts again
possible for the outer coastal waters, bringing seas back into
the 5-7 ft range. Maintained SCA into Sunday. For the rest of
the area, winds generally in the 5-15 kt range through the
period.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday ...

as of 310 am sat... Very difficult forecast Sun into Sun night
as an area of low pressure is forecast to track across the nc
coastal plain. Expecting a period of SCA winds and seas with
this feature sun. Significant differences in the track of the
low have led to a low confidence forecast and will forecast
winds 10-20 kt with higher gusts and seas 4-7 ft for now and
continue to monitor. Remainder of the forecast mon-wed will see
s SW flow 10-15 kt and seas 2-4 ft as atlantic high pressure
prevails across the waters.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Sunday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Sunday for amz156-158.

Small craft advisory from 5 am to 4 pm edt Sunday for amz135.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Dag rf
short term... Dag
long term... Jme
aviation... Rf jme
marine... Dag rf jme


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 8 mi51 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 75°F 80°F1016.6 hPa
44086 11 mi38 min 78°F2 ft
44095 18 mi47 min 73°F3 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 21 mi33 min 78°F2 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 21 mi45 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 79°F 70°F1016.4 hPa
FRFN7 21 mi153 min 2 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 24 mi33 min 79°F2 ft
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 49 mi51 min SW 6 G 8 79°F 78°F1016.7 hPa

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC6 mi78 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F73°F88%1017.3 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC9 mi73 minN 010.00 miFair76°F74°F93%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMQI

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS14S15SW12SW11SW6SW9SW6SW12S13S16SW16SW17SW10SW12SW9SW14S10S6SW11SW12SW11SW10SW8SW9
2 days agoN5SW14SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina
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Jennetts Pier (ocean)
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Sun -- 03:51 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:53 AM EDT     3.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:05 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:03 PM EDT     3.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.61.81.10.60.40.71.32.12.93.43.63.42.82.11.40.80.60.81.322.83.43.63.4

Tide / Current Tables for Oregon Inlet Marina, Pamlico Sound, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.