Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Nags Head, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:51PM Thursday December 12, 2019 1:19 PM EST (18:19 UTC) Moonrise 5:25PMMoonset 7:19AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 933 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..NE winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers late.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers likely.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nags Head, NC
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location: 35.91, -75.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 121710 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1210 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will continue to ridge in from the north through Friday morning. Then, an area of low pressure will form and move up the East Coast late Friday, bringing a cold front through the area on Saturday. High pressure will build in briefly Sunday and Monday, followed by another cold front on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 945 AM Thursday . Other than some stratocumulus skirting the Outer Banks, associated with a developing trough offshore, skies are clear across eastern NC at mid-morning. Strong CAA is underway and temperatures are unlikely to climb more than a few degrees through late afternoon with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s in most locations. Latest 3km NAM and HRRR continue to indicate some isolated showers along the Outer Banks and Sounds region later in the day and will maintain the low PoP for these areas for this update.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/. As of 630 AM Thurs . Precip chances will continue tonight for the Outer Banks and areas just to the west as the coastal trough moves closer to land. Showers will also increase from the west towards daybreak as an area of low pressure develops to the SW. Temperatures will likely bottom out early tonight, and then rise through the rest of the night as low level thicknesses and clouds increase. We'll see lows in the mid 30s inland, while areas along the coast only drop into the mid to upper 40s early tonight. By tomorrow morning, temps will have risen into the low 40s inland, and the low to mid 50s along the coast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 330 AM Thu . Periods of unsettled weather expected through the long term period, with roller coaster temps as a progressive/amplified active weather pattern is expected to continue.

Friday through Saturday . Rain chances inc Fri as deep srly flow increases with digging long wave trough across the lower MS River Valley, which will spur low pressure development over the deep south. This low will ride up the coast rapidly, with rain becoming likely through the day Fri, peaking Fri evening when best UVV/Fgen/PWATS will converge. Maintained the categorical pops this period, as good model to model consistency as well as spaghetti ensembles converging on this solution. Widespread moderate to heavy rain will be possible Fri evening. Still some uncertainty on exact track of the low, there could be potential for strong to even severe storms if storm track is further inland such as advertised by the ECM/CMC. Latest 12/00Z ECM continues to indicate aoa 500 J/KG of sfc based capes advecting into the area with plentiful shear overnight Friday. Best chance of a stronger storm would be along the coast where best instability will reside. Upr trough will still be west of the region though deepest moisture will be offshore Sat morning. Could be quite a bit of showers around first half of Sat due to good forcing with upr trough and continued swrly flow sfc and aloft, and have a likely pop through around noon, with rapid drying later in the day. It will be mild both days with highs in the 60s.

Sunday through Monday . Drier conditions with near to above normal temps expected late weekend to early next week as quasi zonal flow develops and progressive high pressure dominates.

Tuesday . Next potent cold front and possible low pressure system quickly advance towards the region by Mon night and Tue, and introduced 50-70% pops this period, focused on Tue as converging model solns focus timing of the next strong cold front moving through by later Tue.

Wednesday . A return to dry albeit cooler weather pattern by Wed as long wave trough axis shifts to the eastern Seaboard with sfc high pres building into the region. Highs in the 50s with lows dropping back to the 30s.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term /through Friday/ . As of 1210 PM Thu . VFR conditions currently across the area with mostly sunny skies. Pred VFR expected through 06z tonight, with prolonged period of sub-VFR conditions developing late tonight and early Fri morning. Will likely see ceilings lower to MVFR between 06-12z, with shower chances increasing after 15z Friday. Could see a period of LLWS develop Friday afternoon and evening as strong SW winds develop aloft.

Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/ . As of 330 AM Thu . Sub-VFR conditions expected into Sat morning with widespread rain showers and low clouds. Return to VFR later Sat through Monday as high pres builds back in.

MARINE. Short Term /Through Tonight/ . As of 945 AM Thursday . Winds have diminish below 20 knots and have dropped all SCA's for the Sounds on this update. N/NNE winds continue at 20-25 knots with gusts as high as 31 knots at Diamond Buoy and 30 knots at Cape Lookout at mid- morning. Seas persist in the 5-8 foot range. A coastal trough will form over the western Gulf Stream this afternoon, which will have strong winds continuing just to the west of it, especially over the central and southern waters. Winds eventually subside to NE 15-20 tonight with seas 5-6 ft.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/ . As of 330 AM Thu . No changes to previous thinking with an active weather pattern expected through the weekend which will result in hazardous boating conditions with strong winds and elevated seas AOA 6 ft through the period. There will be a break in the gusty winds and high for much of Friday ahead of the next system, and seas may drop below 6 feet for all but the ctrl waters, but winds and seas come back up Friday night ahead of low pressure that will skirt up the coast bringing gusty swrly winds 15-25 kt through Sat. Winds and seas finally subside later Sunday as high pres begins to build into the area.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ150.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . CTC SHORT TERM . SGK LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . CQD/TL MARINE . CTC/TL/SGK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 8 mi56 min N 11 G 15 46°F 51°F1036.7 hPa
44086 11 mi55 min 54°F6 ft
44095 18 mi34 min 59°F6 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 21 mi50 min 53°F5 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 21 mi50 min NE 14 G 17 44°F 1037.2 hPa
FRFN7 21 mi140 min 5 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 24 mi50 min 54°F6 ft
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 49 mi50 min N 21 G 24 47°F 53°F1035.2 hPa

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC6 mi1.7 hrsNE 1010.00 miOvercast45°F31°F61%1038.3 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC9 mi25 minno data10.00 miOvercast45°F32°F62%1036.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMQI

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN12
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1 day agoS16S14S13SW14SW14S12SW13SW14SW12SW4W5N6NE9
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2 days agoS8S9SW6SW11S8SW10SW9SW7S9SW10SW12SW11SW10SW14
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Tide / Current Tables for Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina
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Jennetts Pier (ocean)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 12:38 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EST     3.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:19 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:34 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:19 PM EST     3.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.10.31.12.13.13.743.73.12.21.30.50-00.41.122.73.132.51.80.9

Tide / Current Tables for Oregon Inlet Marina, Pamlico Sound, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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