Nags Head, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nags Head, NC

May 27, 2024 8:06 AM EDT (12:06 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM
Moonrise 11:25 PM   Moonset 8:11 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 717 Am Edt Mon May 27 2024

.small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm edt this afternoon through late tonight - .

Today - S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms early this afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms late.

Tonight - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.

Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the morning.

Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening.

Wed - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds and nw 1 ft at 2 seconds.

Wed night - SE winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 9 seconds and N 1 ft at 4 seconds.

Thu - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

Thu night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.

Fri - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.

Fri night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 717 Am Edt Mon May 27 2024

Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A cold front will then move through tonight or Tuesday. The next front passes late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nags Head, NC
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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 271131 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 731 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will then move through tonight or Tuesday.
The next front passes late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 645 AM Monday...

- Severe thunderstorm risk through the day

- Elevated heat risk this afternoon

A complicated forecast is on the table today, with a conditional higher end severe weather potential still apparent.

The small MCS that moved through ENC last night has moved offshore and weakened. In its wake, an outflow boundary has been laid out that essentially stretches west to east along the NC/SC state line, and is acting more like a warm front.
Meanwhile, an expansive MCS is ongoing from the central Appalachians south through the Lower TN Valley. Increasing southerly flow, and warm/moist advection ahead of the MCS, appears to be supporting scattered elevated convection north of the above-mentioned outflow boundary/warm front. As the southerly flow strengthens, the outflow/warm front should lift north, with the morning convection also lifting north into Virginia. For the early morning update, I've pulled back some on the chance of thunderstorms, especially just after sunrise, as it now appears the best forcing will keep convection focused just to our west/NW through at least mid-morning. There's still some potential, though, especially as WAA increases overhead.
Additionally, if any morning convection can become surface- based, there would be a tendency to turn more right with time, potentially glancing our area.

Attention then turns to the west where the ongoing, and expansive, MCS is trekking east across the Appalachians. Recent 06z-09z short- term guidance remains mixed on how the ongoing MCS will evolve as we move through the day. Warming cloudtops across the northern end of the MCS is suggestive of a weakening trend. However, the southern end of the MCS still appears very healthy.

East of the MCS, short-term guidance is insistent on increasing southerly flow leading to boundary layer recovery/moistening beneath steep mid-level lapse rates through this evening, supporting moderate to strong destabilization. SREF probability guidance gives a 70% chance of MLCAPE exceeding 2000 j/kg, with some deterministic guidance indicating values as high as 3000 j/kg. The magnitude of instability is noteworthy, especially in tandem with 40-50kt of deep layer shear forecast. At face value, this would be supportive of some higher-end severe weather potential (ie. golf ball, or larger, hail and 60-70+ mph wind gusts). That said, there are still some uncertainties with what impact the upstream MCS, and any morning convection, will have.
We'll continue to message the higher end potential, but also continue to note that there is more uncertainty than normal.
Lastly, while the highest risk looks to be wind and hail. 0-1km SRH is forecast to top out around 100-150 m2/s2 which would support a tornado risk, especially where/if supercells develop.
This risk could be maximized along any residual boundaries and/or the afternoon seabreeze. There appears to be a focused area from the coastal plain northeast through the Albemarle Sound vicinity where guidance is hinting at the greatest tornado potential.

Stay tuned for updates through the day on this ever-evolving situation.

Thunderstorms aside, hot temperatures and dewpoints in the 70s will lead to an elevated heat risk, with a "feels like" temperature closer to 100 degrees inland.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 230 AM Monday...

- Continued strong/severe thunderstorm potential overnight

An unstable airmass will remain in place through the night as we remain in a southwesterly flow regime aloft. It's unclear how much convection will be ongoing through the night, as any daytime convection will likely play an important role in where storms exist through the night. However, barring widespread convection during the day today, there should still be a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms overnight ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Stay tuned for updates on this risk through the night. Otherwise, it will be a very mild night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 0400 Monday...Long term opens up with showers associated with lingering front Tues and then clearing through the week as cool high pressure builds in.

Tuesday...Cold front lingers near the coast through the day Tues as the base of the upper trough approaches from the NW. Showers confined to the coast early Tues with chances increasing toward the HWY17 corridor in the afternoon as seabreeze inches inland.
PoPs decrease from W to E behind the front which is expected to fully push offshore through the evening, briefly turning winds more Nerly. MaxTs in upper 80s most, upper 70s to low 80s beaches.

Rest of Workweek...Upper trough persists with shortwaves passing through the base of the trough Wednesday and again on Thursday with weak SFC trough developing inland behind the front. This troughing inland will delay the arrival of the SFC high from the NW, keeping temps fairly warm Wed. Temps cool end of the week as the high pressure begins spilling over the area, MaxTs in upper 70s, MinTs in the 50s. Forecast remains dry through this period.

Weekend...Upper trough swings through the East Coast and offshore with SFC almost directly overhead Saturday morning pushing offshore through the weekend. Get back to warm Serly flow regime early next week ahead of the next front.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 12z Tuesday/...
As of 715 AM Monday...

- Multiple rounds of TSRA possible over the next 24 hrs

SCT TSRA are ongoing just west of Eastern NC at this time, and these are expected to remain just to our W/NW through the morning hours. With this update, then, I'll remove the VCTS mention for the morning hours. Attention then turns to another cluster of TSRA back to the west that is just now crossing the Appalachians, and whether or not that will hold together to the coast. If so, there would be another risk of strong wind gusts of 40-50kt+. Another scenario is that those TSRA weaken as they cross the Appalachians, with additional TSRA developing from the SW, moving NE across the area later today into tonight. In that scenario, there would be a higher risk of 50kt+ wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes. Sub-VFR conditions can be expected where TSRA occur as well. Late tonight, an area of low CIGs may develop in the wake of any TSRA activity.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 400 AM Monday...Showers and thunderstorms are expected possible Tues with a drying trend setting up for the remainder of the workweek. Periods of sub- VFR conditions are possible but flight cats expected to remain VFR outside of convection.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

- Elevated winds and seas this afternoon into tonight

- Increased thunderstorm risk through tonight

Southerly flow will steadily increase through the day, peaking this afternoon and this evening at 15-25kt. Confidence remains high enough to continue with a SCA to cover the 25kt and 5-6ft seas potential. Additionally, confidence has increased in 25kt winds occurring for a time across all waters, so with this update I've added the Neuse, Bay, Pungo, and Pamlico Rivers to the SCA. As a cold front approaches tonight, the gradient may relax enough to keep the winds below 25kt overnight, but we'll continue to re- evaluate this potential and adjust the SCA headline as necessary. A round, or two, of thunderstorms is possible through tonight. Where thunderstorms occur, there is the potential for 40-50kt gusts, hail, and waterspouts.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 0400 Monday...A front lingers near the coast through the day Tuesday before finally pushing offshore overnight/early Wed.
Showers and tstorms possible. SWerly winds 10-15G20kt. Winds briefly turn Nerly behind the front early Wed before becoming SWerly again as SFC trough approaches and moves through Wed night, turning winds Nerly for the remainder of the work week.
Seas generally falling through the week; 2-4ft Tues, 2-3ft Wed, 1-3ft late week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for AMZ131-136-137-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135-150.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156-158.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 8 mi48 min S 7G9.9 77°F 73°F29.90
44086 11 mi40 min 70°F2 ft
44095 18 mi40 min 68°F2 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 21 mi40 min 65°F1 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 21 mi48 min SSE 8G8 71°F 29.86
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 24 mi66 min 70°F 67°F2 ft
41082 25 mi126 min S 9.7 70°F 29.87
41083 41 mi126 min S 7.8 67°F 63°F29.88
44079 44 mi186 min SW 5.8 65°F 61°F29.89
41120 48 mi66 min 68°F2 ft
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 49 mi48 min SSW 6G8.9 74°F 75°F29.91


Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KMQI DARE COUNTY RGNL,NC 6 sm21 minSSW 0910 smClear77°F70°F78%29.88
KFFA FIRST FLIGHT,NC 9 sm16 minSSW 0310 smPartly Cloudy75°F70°F83%29.86
Link to 5 minute data for KMQI


Wind History from MQI
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina
   
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Jennetts Pier (ocean)
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Mon -- 05:00 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:51 AM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:52 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:09 PM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
3.3
1
am
2.6
2
am
1.7
3
am
1
4
am
0.4
5
am
0.2
6
am
0.4
7
am
1
8
am
1.7
9
am
2.4
10
am
2.9
11
am
3.1
12
pm
2.8
1
pm
2.3
2
pm
1.6
3
pm
0.9
4
pm
0.4
5
pm
0.3
6
pm
0.6
7
pm
1.2
8
pm
2
9
pm
2.8
10
pm
3.5
11
pm
3.7


Tide / Current for Oregon Inlet Marina, Pamlico Sound, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Oregon Inlet Marina, Pamlico Sound, North Carolina, Tide feet


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic   
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Morehead City, NC,




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