Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manteo, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 190903 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 403 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

SYNOPSIS. A strong cold front will cross the region this morning. High pressure will briefly extend south into the area late today and tonight. An area of low pressure will pass to the southeast of the region Thursday and Thursday night. Cool high pressure will build over the area Friday into the weekend. Yet another system will impact the area early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. As of 230 AM Wed . Strong cold front over VA will push quickly S thru region this morn. Widespread shra will cont along and ahead of front then taper off and end from N to S later today as drier air spreads in behind front. Strong CAA in wake of front will lead to temps dropping mainly into the 40s this morn then holding rather steady into the aftn. NNE winds will be gusty along the coast once the front crosses.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/. As of 230 AM Wed . The front will cont well to the S as high pres noses in from the N. Expect cont mainly cloudy skies however precip shld stay mainly to the S with just slight pops late srn tier. Lows will range from mid 30s NW to lower 40s SE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 355 AM Wed . Confidence continues to increase in some winter- weather threat across eastern NC Thursday night into early Friday morning, and although some uncertainty remains in regards to extent and accumulations confidence here has also increased.

Thursday into Thursday night . Still a tricky forecast with in regards to winter weather impacts. Confidence is increasing that we may see a period of some snow Thursday night into early Friday morning although some questions remain on when rain will switch to snow, as well as accumulation amounts.

Daylight hours Thursday should be mainly rain. A strong shortwave trough is forecast to dive out of the Great Lakes regions Thursday morning and interact with the now stalled frontal boundary to the south which will spur cyclogenesis off the southeast coast. The shortwave will pivot southeastward through the Ohio Valley, while 160+ kt jet will be located off the Mid Atlantic coast. Ground zero for sfc cyclogenesis will be off the Carolina coast, as area will be under influence of favorable right entrance region of upr jet. Precip is expected to develop north of the sfc front as increasing WAA/fgen occurs aloft through the day. P-type will be rain, with increase in coverage through the day, and maximized across srn zones.

Tricky part of the forecast arrives late Thu afternoon, as CAA is expected to commence late in the day as the low begins to depart to the east. It appears increasingly likely there will be a window for some snow before moisture gets shunted offshore. Rain should mix with and change to snow, esp inland. Guidance has trended a little faster with this transition with a modestly faster intrusion of the upper cold air layer and the far interior coastal plain could start to see flakes in the late afternoon.

We are finally starting to see signs of model consensus with spread in forecast accumulations not nearly as large as this time yesterday morning. The GFS has come down in forecast amounts while the ECMWF trended slightly up. Although the ECMWF is still the most conservative guidance it shows 2-3" of snow along and west of Highway 17 (with excellent consensus with its ensemble members). Although we don't have the full picture yet with high- res guidance, consensus here is on the conservative side as well. Of particular note, a look at GEFS plumes for Havelock now show tightly clustered members for snowfall of around 1-2" - a significant improvement in consensus over the past 24 hours. Some guidance are still indicating potential for some heavy mesoscale banding setting up for a time, as DGZ is collocated with highest Omega/UVV. Where and if this occurs remains nearly impossible to ascertain this far out in time and will not reflect this in this morning's forecast.

A notable holdout is the NAM, but it is now a outlier bringing the coastal low closer to the coast. Consequently, this brings the colder air in faster and results in stronger frontogenesis - resulting in impressive (but likely highly exaggerated) snowfall totals. Kept it out of the forecast blend but it does underscore the potential for higher snowfall amounts if the low does end up tracking slightly closer to shore.

The snowfall forecast for this package has changed little with the previous, with a 1-2" possible along and west of Highway 17 with lighter accumulations elsewhere. We remain below consensus for a few reasons, including warm surface temperatures which should initially melt the snow (apart from grassy surfaces and elevated surfaces). Observed soil temperatures in the area are in the low to mid 50s. Additionally, coastal winter storms like this generally feature SLRs below below 10:1 due to the large volume of liquid water involved in crystal growth. As always, it should be emphasized this situation continues to remain fluid and the forecast will continue to be refined as more model data comes in.

Coastal flooding will be a concern for southern parts of the Pamlico Sound and adjacent Neuse River and tributaries, as strong northerly winds develop - see the Coastal Flooding section for more details.

Friday . System will quickly depart by daybreak, and any precip will quickly exit. It will be cold in the morning, with sub freezing temps expected inland. Icy roads will be a possibility Friday morning with treacherous travel conditions. A blustery day despite a return to sunshine, with highs only in the mid/upr 30s most locales. Attention will be on coastal flooding and tidal concerns with the stiff northerly winds expected. Friday night will be quite cold with arctic high pres settling in with clr skies and calm/light winds. Lows expected well down into the 20s inland with low 30s beaches.

Saturday . Drier weather takes control as high pressure shifts overhead, with temperatures expected to moderate into the 50s over the weekend.

Sunday through Tuesday . Another system is expected to approach the Carolinas Sunday night or Monday as an upper trough digs into the central plains. Still some model discrepancies on exact timing, but 18/12Z global model suite in good agreement on fairly wet system and have continued high PoPs this period.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Short Term /through 06Z Thu/ . As of 1220 AM Wed . Widespread IFR or worse will develop shortly and cont thru mid to late morn as shra overspread region with low cigs assoc with cold front. As drier air spreads S in wake of front later this morn expect rain to end with cigs grad lifting thru MVFR to VFR by late morn/early aftn. VFR will then cont thru this evening. NE winds will gust to around 20 kts behind front later this morn into the aftn before diminishing this evening.

Long Term /Thu Through Sunday/ . As of 400 AM Wednesday . Unsettled weather is expected through Thursday night as a series of low pressure systems move to the south of the area, resulting in periods of sub-VFR conditions. Some -SN may be briefly observed at sites Thursday night to early Fri morning as low pressure develops offshore. Light accumulations are possible. Cool high pressure rebuilds over the area Friday with VFR conditions expected.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 230 AM Wed . The strong cold front will reach nrn tier prior to daybreak then quickly push S thru rest of region. Expect a NNE surge 20 to 30 kts to push S behind front and could see a brief pd of near Gale force gusts. The front will stall to the S tonight with high pres ridging S into the area keeping decent pres grdnt over region with NE winds 15 to 25 kt N and 20 to 30 kt S. SCA cont all but Pamlico River today into tonight . added Gale Watch headline for stronger winds that develop later Thu.

Seas will build to 6 to 8 ft today and cont in that range tonight.

Long Term /Thu through Sun/ . As of 4 AM Wednesday . SCA conditions are expected to linger through Saturday with Gales likely late Thursday into Friday for at least Pamlico sound and the coastal waters with seas building to 10-13 feet by Friday afternoon. Winds will weaken below SCA overnight Friday although seas are expected to subside far slower, getting below 6 feet by Sunday. Winds remain northerly for the period before becoming generally light Saturday night and Sunday as high pressure moves overhead.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 230 AM Wed . Minor water level rises expected for areas adjacent to the Southern Pamlico Sound, mainly Eastern Carteret and areas along the lower Neuse River, today with strong NNE surge. However not expecting any sig flooding issues at this time.

NNE gale force winds are looking more likely Thursday night into Friday, as an area of low pressure lifts east to northeastward off the Carolina coast. There is potential for minor soundside water level rises for areas adjacent to the Southern Pamlico Sound, mainly Eastern Carteret and areas along the lower Neuse River, Thursday night and Friday. Minor inundation 1-2 ft (agl) will be possible.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ137. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 4 PM EST Thursday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 2 PM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM EST Thursday for AMZ156-158. Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 6 PM EST Thursday for AMZ150.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . RF SHORT TERM . RF LONG TERM . TL/MS AVIATION . RF/MS MARINE . RF/MS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . MHX

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC	10 mi	57 min	W 6 G 8.9	57°F	55°F		1017.5 hPa
44086	14 mi	44 min			50°F	4 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370	19 mi	51 min	WSW 8.9 G 11	56°F			1017.1 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC	20 mi	39 min			49°F	3 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430)	24 mi	39 min			49°F	4 ft
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC	48 mi	57 min	W 7 G 9.9	59°F	56°F		1017.7 hPa

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC	2 mi	44 min	W 5	3.00 mi	Overcast	57°F	56°F	98%	1017.9 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC	7 mi	64 min	W 3	5.00 mi	Rain	57°F	56°F	100%	1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMQI

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Roanoke Sound Channel, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (4,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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