Tuesday, July14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manteo, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:24PM Tuesday July 14, 2020 6:03 PM EDT (22:03 UTC) Moonrise 12:25AMMoonset 1:51PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 400 Pm Edt Tue Jul 14 2020
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers and tstms early this evening.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Wed night..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manteo, NC
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location: 35.91, -75.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 141951 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 351 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak front will linger offshore through tonight before exiting offshore with high pressure building in from the north. A front will push southward for the weekend, increasing chances for unsettled weather.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 335 PM Tue . Upper trough currently over the Gulf of Maine is slowly lifting over the open Atlantic with upper ridging currently amplifying over the Great Lakes. The ridge will be the dominant upper feature over the Carolinas in the short term, with its axis nearly overhead by Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front is now just barely offshore with light easterly winds helping nudging sound breezes inland, while keeping the southerly sea breeze closer to the coast. Further along the eastern Piedmont, storms are attempting to fire along a weak moisture gradient.

Near term . Forecasting the remainder of today to be predominantly dry with only an isolated shower or storm expected along the sea and sound breezes. A rogue shower from the Piedmont boundary may sneak into the coastal plain late this afternoon. The main inhibiting factors are rising heights as the aforementioned ridge builds into the area, ushering in considerably drier air and subsidence aloft. This will effectively strangle updrafts before they have a chance to sustain themselves. If a storm can sustain itself it could produce gusty downdrafts as characterized by MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/kg and DCAPES north of 1200 J/kg per RAP soundings.

Tonight . Upper ridge will strengthen bringing dry conditions overnight and all storm activity quickly coming to an end after sunset. Mainly clear skies will prevail tonight with mainly calm winds. Patchy fog and possible stratus threat appears a bit more elevated overnight with favorable onshore easterly winds expected. Lows remain in the low 70s, mid to upper 70s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/. As of 345 PM Tue . Upper ridging will gradually shift overhead tomorrow with high pressure ridging in from the north. No appreciable upper level forcing present tomorrow so any convective chances will be along where the sea breeze intersects the deepest moisture, which is forecast to be to our southwest over far SE NC and NE SC. Kept a slight chance PoP mention for our southwestern tier, although would not be shocked to see an isolated cell farther north along the coastal plain. Low level thicknesses fall only a few meters compared to today and therefore highs will only be a degree or so cooler than today but still holding in the low 90s, upper 80s beaches. Combined with expected Tds in the upper 60s to low 70s, heat indices could reach 100+ degrees.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 330 AM Tue . The upper trough residing over the east coast earlier in the week will move eastward off the coast and begin to lift out, giving way to upper level ridging that is expected to dominate the pattern through the end of the week. In the absence of any larger scale forcing, convection each afternoon will largely be instability driven with initiation likely to occur along the sea breeze. SPC supports this by maintaining general thunder through the week.

By Thursday, attention will turn to the Midwest, where a surface disturbance will attempt to organize and move into the Great Lakes region, trying to create some semblance of a frontal boundary but remaining largely disorganized until Friday when a strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is expected between two surface highs, one over the upper Midwest, the second off of the northeast coast. These features remain much better defined in the GFS solution as was the case yesterday, however would argue the GFS has moved towards the EC with a less defined surface low and uncertainty in the timing of any frontal boundary pushing south, if at all, into eastern NC for the weekend. Regardless of how well this feature organizes, low level moisture, and thus PoPs will increase for the weekend but will keep at chance values for now. Early next week, a more organized boundary pushes south out of Canada, keeping the pattern fairly unsettled.

Highs this week generally in the low 90s inland to upper 80s along the coast with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Heat index values inland will push the mid to upper 90s most days this week.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Short Term /through 18Z Wed/ . As of 1245 PM Tue . VFR shld dominate most of the period. Some wdly sct shra/tsra poss this aftn with EWN prob best shot and will cont VCTS mention there . otherwise sct CU expected. Winds go calm tonight and with mclr skies will likely see patchy late night fog and added MVFR vsbys to all sites. Fog wl rapidly dissipate after sun up Wed with again some sct Cu grad developing.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Saturday/ . As of 330 AM Tuesday . VFR expected through much of the long term, aside from sea breeze convection during the afternoons and an associated chance of fog during the early morning hours where precipitation occurs. Conditions will become more unsettled by the weekend and will bring an increased chance of showers and storms to the area.

MARINE. Short Term /Tonight and Wednesday/ . As of 345 PM Tue . Quiet marine conditions across the waters with generally light and variable winds at 5 kt or less as a cold front lingers just off the coast. Buoys reported seas of 2-3 feet across all coastal waters. Advancing sea/sound breezes have allow for easterly and southerly winds of 5-10 kt with gusts to 15 kt at times. Light easterly winds return overnight before increasing to 10-15 kt across all waters tomorrow and dry conditions. Seas remain at 2-3 feet through the period.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Saturday/ . As of 330 AM Tue . Southwesterly winds at 5-10 kts gusting 10-15 kts should prevail through much of the forecast period with seas around 2-3 feet through Sunday before some 4 foot swell starts to creep into eastern edges of the coastal waters early next week as swly winds increase to 10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . MS SHORT TERM . MS LONG TERM . RTE AVIATION . RTE/RF MARINE . RTE/MS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 10 mi64 min 85°F
44086 14 mi51 min 82°F2 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 20 mi38 min 80°F1 ft
FRFN7 20 mi124 min 1 ft
44095 21 mi38 min 81°F2 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 24 mi38 min 81°F2 ft
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 48 mi64 min 85°F

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC2 mi69 minESE 1010.00 miFair82°F72°F73%1015.2 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC7 mi69 minE 510.00 miFair83°F72°F70%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMQI

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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S7SW8CalmW3CalmW4SW6SW6CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmN4N5NE4NE4E5CalmE5E7E6E8
1 day agoSW16SW18SW16SW13SW15SW13SW11W8W9W8W9W9W6W5W5NW7NW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina
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Jennetts Pier (ocean)
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:36 AM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:47 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:13 PM EDT     3.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:50 PM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.42.72.72.52.11.510.70.60.81.322.63.13.33.22.92.41.81.30.90.81

Tide / Current Tables for Roanoke Sound Channel, North Carolina
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Roanoke Sound Channel
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:57 AM EDT     0.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:14 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:34 PM EDT     0.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.20.30.40.40.40.30.20.20.10.10.10.10.20.30.40.50.50.40.40.30.20.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.