Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manteo, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 041338 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 938 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build over the area this weekend, as low pressure moves slowly east over the Atlantic. High pressure slides offshore Monday, while a backdoor cold front pushes into portions of Eastern NC. The front then pushes north of the area Tuesday, and then a stronger cold front will move through the area late this week.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/. As of 940 AM Sat . No significant changes needed to previous forecast for update this morning. The low pres that has been retrograding to the W past cpl days will begin to shift SE today well offshore. Main impact will be some increase in clouds over NE half of region with SW tier remaining mclr. Clouds and N wind will keep highs in the mid/upr 50s NE coast while SW tier approaches 70. The N winds will be a bit breezy central and nrn beaches.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/. As of 250 AM Sat . Low pressure will cont to move E away from the region over the Atlantic as high pres builds in from the W. Clouds over mainly NE tier will begin to slide E with most of the region seeing mclr skies. Lows will range from lower 40s inland to 45 to 50 beaches.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As 310 AM Sat . Warm and somewhat unsettled conditions expected early next week. Then, a stronger cold front will cross the area Thursday or Friday, with cooler conditions likely going into next weekend.

Sunday . Northerly flow will slowly subside Sunday as high pressure builds overhead. Still relatively "cool" low level heights will lead to high temps ranging from the low 70s inland, to the low 60s to upper 50s over NE NC and the Outer Banks, where cool ocean flow will keep conditions chilly.

Monday through Wednesday . High pressure will slide offshore Monday, while a backdoor cold front sinks south into portions of the area by the afternoon. With temperatures warming well into the 70s away from the coast, some instability will develop, and scattered thunderstorms could initiate along the sea breeze. Decent wind shear values across the area could yield some stronger storms if cells can mature.

The backdoor front will retreat north Tuesday morning, and southwesterly flow will strengthen, and low level heights will build. Some scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be possible Tuesday as the front strengthens to the north with weak cyclogenesis possible. Then, some weak subsidence behind this feature Wednesday should lead to mostly dry conditions. Temperatures both days could reach the low 80s inland, and low to mid 70s along the coast.

Thursday and Friday . Some pretty big changes to the forecast for this period, with most models now flipping to a solution that involves a stronger cold front crossing the area sometime late Thursday or into Friday. ECMWF and CMC show a drier solution, with little to any precip over the area, while the GFS is a bit slower, which allows for better moisture transport over the area . leading to a depiction of more rain. Either way it looks as though Thursday remains mostly dry, and will carry slight chance PoPs Friday for now. Continued warm temps with readings into the 70s and low 80s Thursday, and then 70s on Friday.

AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 630 AM Sat . VFR conditions will cont to dominate. Mdls show moisture slowly pushing SW over NE half of region today as low pres moves SE offshore. Think most of taf sites will see at worst sct clouds with better moisture and cigs further E, PGV and EWN have best shot of some bkn cigs this aftn. Tonight the clouds are fcst to begin shifting back E with mclr skies over the taf sites. N winds may gust to around 15 kts or so today.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/ . As of 340 AM Sat . VFR conditions are expected through the Monday afternoon, when some scattered showers or thunderstorms develop. Scattered precip likely again Tuesday, with dry weather returning Wednesday.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 940 AM Sat . The NE swell continues to increase with 8 to 10 foot seas central and N, fcst on track with no changes planned. Latest obs show N/NNE winds 15-25 kt, with seas 8-10 ft north of Ocracoke and 3-5 ft south. As the offshore low tracks SE today most of the mdls show N winds increasing a bit with some gusts 20 to 25 kts expected cstl wtrs. Appears winds over Pamlico Sound will remain below 25 kts today so will drop SCA there. Tonight as the low drifts further offshore and high pres builds in from the W expect N winds to diminish to 10 to 20 kts.

Seas will cont to build to 8 to 11 ft N and 4 to 6 ft S later today. Seas will remain elevated in that range thru most of tonight as well. Given current winds and seas have delayed SCA srn tier til later today.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/ . As of 340 AM Sat . Strong swell 6-10 ft will linger Sunday and into Monday morning, while winds turn from the N around 10-15 kts Sunday to SW 15-20 kts Monday. SSW flow continues Tuesday and Wednesday at around 10-20 kts, while seas remain 4-6 ft.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 250 AM Sat . Will cont the High Surf and Coastal Flood Advisories for areas from Cape Hat N. Much of this is assuming the NE swell will build to 8 to 10 feet and given current trends do not have strong confidence in this. The high tide later this aftn prob has best potential to produce beach erosion and some ocean overwash. If the swell does build as big as mdls show may need to extend the Coastal Flood Advisory but for now will just cont thru this evening. Given trends in waves have ended the High Surf Mon morning.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ203-205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ156. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . RF/CQD SHORT TERM . RF LONG TERM . SGK AVIATION . RF/SGK MARINE . RF/CQD/SGK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . MHX

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC	10 mi	54 min	N 16 G 20	52°F	54°F		1013.4 hPa
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370	19 mi	48 min	N 15 G 18	51°F			1013.4 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC	20 mi	48 min			53°F	8 ft
FRFN7	20 mi	138 min				7 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430)	24 mi	48 min			50°F	9 ft
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC	48 mi	48 min	N 18 G 20	53°F	59°F		1013.8 hPa

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC

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NW23 G29

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N16 G23

N13 G18

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2 days ago

N19 G28

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N20 G25

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NW20 G31

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N7 G10

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W6 G9

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W10 G15

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N16 G21

N14 G23

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC	2 mi	23 min	NNE 14 G 19	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	54°F	43°F	68%	1014.6 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC	7 mi	43 min	N 8 G 18	10.00 mi	Fair	52°F	43°F	73%	1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMQI

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)

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NW10 G22

NW12 G19

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N12 G19

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N22 G32

N18 G30

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N14 G24

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NE13 G24

N11 G18

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Calm

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N9 G16

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N12 G20

N14 G20

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Tide / Current Tables for Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Roanoke Sound Channel, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (10,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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