Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manteo, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 141951 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 351 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak front will linger offshore through tonight before exiting offshore with high pressure building in from the north. A front will push southward for the weekend, increasing chances for unsettled weather.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 335 PM Tue . Upper trough currently over the Gulf of Maine is slowly lifting over the open Atlantic with upper ridging currently amplifying over the Great Lakes. The ridge will be the dominant upper feature over the Carolinas in the short term, with its axis nearly overhead by Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front is now just barely offshore with light easterly winds helping nudging sound breezes inland, while keeping the southerly sea breeze closer to the coast. Further along the eastern Piedmont, storms are attempting to fire along a weak moisture gradient.

Near term . Forecasting the remainder of today to be predominantly dry with only an isolated shower or storm expected along the sea and sound breezes. A rogue shower from the Piedmont boundary may sneak into the coastal plain late this afternoon. The main inhibiting factors are rising heights as the aforementioned ridge builds into the area, ushering in considerably drier air and subsidence aloft. This will effectively strangle updrafts before they have a chance to sustain themselves. If a storm can sustain itself it could produce gusty downdrafts as characterized by MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/kg and DCAPES north of 1200 J/kg per RAP soundings.

Tonight . Upper ridge will strengthen bringing dry conditions overnight and all storm activity quickly coming to an end after sunset. Mainly clear skies will prevail tonight with mainly calm winds. Patchy fog and possible stratus threat appears a bit more elevated overnight with favorable onshore easterly winds expected. Lows remain in the low 70s, mid to upper 70s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/. As of 345 PM Tue . Upper ridging will gradually shift overhead tomorrow with high pressure ridging in from the north. No appreciable upper level forcing present tomorrow so any convective chances will be along where the sea breeze intersects the deepest moisture, which is forecast to be to our southwest over far SE NC and NE SC. Kept a slight chance PoP mention for our southwestern tier, although would not be shocked to see an isolated cell farther north along the coastal plain. Low level thicknesses fall only a few meters compared to today and therefore highs will only be a degree or so cooler than today but still holding in the low 90s, upper 80s beaches. Combined with expected Tds in the upper 60s to low 70s, heat indices could reach 100+ degrees.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 330 AM Tue . The upper trough residing over the east coast earlier in the week will move eastward off the coast and begin to lift out, giving way to upper level ridging that is expected to dominate the pattern through the end of the week. In the absence of any larger scale forcing, convection each afternoon will largely be instability driven with initiation likely to occur along the sea breeze. SPC supports this by maintaining general thunder through the week.

By Thursday, attention will turn to the Midwest, where a surface disturbance will attempt to organize and move into the Great Lakes region, trying to create some semblance of a frontal boundary but remaining largely disorganized until Friday when a strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is expected between two surface highs, one over the upper Midwest, the second off of the northeast coast. These features remain much better defined in the GFS solution as was the case yesterday, however would argue the GFS has moved towards the EC with a less defined surface low and uncertainty in the timing of any frontal boundary pushing south, if at all, into eastern NC for the weekend. Regardless of how well this feature organizes, low level moisture, and thus PoPs will increase for the weekend but will keep at chance values for now. Early next week, a more organized boundary pushes south out of Canada, keeping the pattern fairly unsettled.

Highs this week generally in the low 90s inland to upper 80s along the coast with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Heat index values inland will push the mid to upper 90s most days this week.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Short Term /through 18Z Wed/ . As of 1245 PM Tue . VFR shld dominate most of the period. Some wdly sct shra/tsra poss this aftn with EWN prob best shot and will cont VCTS mention there . otherwise sct CU expected. Winds go calm tonight and with mclr skies will likely see patchy late night fog and added MVFR vsbys to all sites. Fog wl rapidly dissipate after sun up Wed with again some sct Cu grad developing.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Saturday/ . As of 330 AM Tuesday . VFR expected through much of the long term, aside from sea breeze convection during the afternoons and an associated chance of fog during the early morning hours where precipitation occurs. Conditions will become more unsettled by the weekend and will bring an increased chance of showers and storms to the area.

MARINE. Short Term /Tonight and Wednesday/ . As of 345 PM Tue . Quiet marine conditions across the waters with generally light and variable winds at 5 kt or less as a cold front lingers just off the coast. Buoys reported seas of 2-3 feet across all coastal waters. Advancing sea/sound breezes have allow for easterly and southerly winds of 5-10 kt with gusts to 15 kt at times. Light easterly winds return overnight before increasing to 10-15 kt across all waters tomorrow and dry conditions. Seas remain at 2-3 feet through the period.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Saturday/ . As of 330 AM Tue . Southwesterly winds at 5-10 kts gusting 10-15 kts should prevail through much of the forecast period with seas around 2-3 feet through Sunday before some 4 foot swell starts to creep into eastern edges of the coastal waters early next week as swly winds increase to 10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . MS SHORT TERM . MS LONG TERM . RTE AVIATION . RTE/RF MARINE . RTE/MS

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC	10 mi	64 min			85°F
44086	14 mi	51 min			82°F	2 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC	20 mi	38 min			80°F	1 ft
FRFN7	20 mi	124 min				1 ft
44095	21 mi	38 min			81°F	2 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430)	24 mi	38 min			81°F	2 ft
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC	48 mi	64 min			85°F

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC	2 mi	69 min	ESE 10	10.00 mi	Fair	82°F	72°F	73%	1015.2 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC	7 mi	69 min	E 5	10.00 mi	Fair	83°F	72°F	70%	1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMQI

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)

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W6 G14

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S14 G18

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S17 G20

S14 G18

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Tide / Current Tables for Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Roanoke Sound Channel, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (18,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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