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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 320 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt early this evening. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 6 ft after midnight.
Thu..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds around 10 kt, becoming ne. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

AMZ100 320 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. High pressure builds in from the west through the rest of the week, bringing fair weather back to enc. A low pressure system may impact the area late this weekend and early next week.

FXUS62 KMHX 111915 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 215 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds in from the west through the rest of the week, bringing fair weather back to ENC. A low pressure system may impact the area late this weekend and early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 215 PM Mon...Latest analysis shows 1025mb high pressure centered over TN/MS/AL. High pressure will ridge in from the west stronger overnight, quickly weakening the gradient and bringing light to calm winds inland after sunset. This, in addition to grad clearing skies, will make for favorable radiational cooling conditions with lows likely falling into the upper 20s for areas away from the water, with a few lower to mid 20s possible for the most efficient radiational cooling spots. Fog is unlikely given the very cool/dry airmass, but a little steam/ditch fog near moisture sources is possible given the widespread rainfall over the past 24 hrs.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
As of 215 PM Mon...Sfc high pressure will become centered over the Carolinas as flow becomes more zonal Tuesday. Below normal temps will continue with sunny skies, with highs in the low/mid 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 320 AM Mon...Upper level pattern trends zonal as upper trough digs into the western CONUS during the period. High pressure will be the dominant surface feature through the rest of the work week, punctuated by a dry reinforcing cold front traversing the area on Wednesday. No rain chances are expected and the front will be accompanied by little more than an increase in mid and high level cloud cover. Temperatures will hover at or slightly below average into the weekend. With calm winds and clear skies on Tuesday night, pushed forecast on the coolest side of guidance with the expectation of excellent radiational cooling.

For the weekend, still keeping an eye on next area of low pressure forming in the Gulf and potentially lifting along the East Coast.
Still considerable variation among guidance, but signal has trended more towards a suppressed solution as high pressure remains entrenched across the Carolinas, keeping low and impactful weather more towards SC and areas south. Opted to lower PoPs from the previous forecast out of respect for this trend.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 215 PM Mon...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Sct-bkn scu should dissipate with loss of heating this evening, with skies becoming SKC. A much drier and cooler airmass fills in tonight, with only a very low chance of some shallow fog at PGV and EWN through the pre-dawn hours Tuesday.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the week as strong cool high pressure remains in control over the Carolinas. Gusty northerly winds make a return on Wednesday as a reinforcing cold front sweeps across the area.
Nights with calmer winds will be ideal candidates for shallow radiational fog given freshly saturated soils from yesterday's soaking rains.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 215 PM Mon...Latest obs show NW-NNW winds 15-20 kt gusting to 25 kt across the coastal waters with seas 6-9 ft north of Ocracoke and 4-7 ft south. High pressure will continue to build over the waters tonight, becoming centered over the Carolinas Tuesday. Conditions will be slowly improving, with winds diminishing to 10-15 kt by late tonight and 5-15 kt Tue.
Seas will subside to 4-7 ft late tonight and 3-6 ft by Tue afternoon. SCAs continue for the coastal waters through Tuesday and into Tuesday evening for the central waters.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 340 AM Mon...Two threats to watch in the medium range outside of otherwise benign boating conditions across the waters of eastern NC. Dry reinforcing cold front is expected to traverse the waters on Wednesday, bringing a surge of northerly winds Wed night into Thursday across all zones save for inland rivers with gusts up to 30 kt at times. After this front passes, attention turns to low pressure progged to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and lift into the western Atlantic over the weekend.
Magnitude of impacts is uncertain owing to model differences in timing and track, but there is a signal for at least increasing swell to intrude into the area from the south.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ150-156- 158.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ152-154.

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Jennetts Pier (ocean)
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Mon -- 05:36 AM EST     3.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:13 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:33 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:54 PM EST     2.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:56 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet

Roanoke Sound Channel
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Mon -- 01:38 AM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:57 AM EST     0.55 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:40 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:34 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:15 PM EST     0.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Roanoke Sound Channel, North Carolina, Tide feet

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