Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rocky Mount, NC

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 140 AM Friday...

Quiet weather and a nearly cloudless sky will continue. The strongest mid level westerlies will hold to our N, across the N CONUS and S Canada across New England, including a potent shortwave trough that will cross Manitoba/Ontario today and Quebec/New England tonight. Weak flow will prevail over the rest of the CONUS, including a weak mid level low over the S Gulf States, keeping NC in a dry and light NW steering flow. At the surface, meanwhile, a cool surface high centered over S OH will continue to build through the central Appalachians and pour S through central NC through tonight.
The very dry air in place and upstream (PW < 0.4") plus weak surface flow as the high settles over the Carolinas will translate into few to no clouds today and light surface winds. While morning thicknesses are projected to be around 20 m below normal, the quickly modifying air mass should result in temps today that are comparable or very slightly above Thursday's highs, in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Clear and calm conditions tonight will foster good radiational cooling, favoring lows from around 40 to the mid 40s, with a few upper 30s in the typically colder spots. -GIH

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 200 AM Friday...

The dry and quiet weather is likely to continue into the weekend, with warming temps. The surface high centered over the W Carolinas will drift southward and expand W-E across the S Gulf States and over and off the coast of the Southeast states, resulting in a a light SW surface wind over NC as a weak lee trough forms over the W Piedmont. But there will still be no opportunity for moisture return given that the ridge to our S will cut off the Gulf and Atlantic, plus the persistence of dry-source NW flow aloft. As a result, skies will remain clear to mostly clear. Low level thicknesses are expected to have risen to near or just above normal Sat morning, and given high daytime insolation, temps should peak above normal, with highs in the mid 70s to near 80. Expect a milder night Sat night, with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. -GIH


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 240 AM Friday...

The extended forecast is rather quiet - there will be high pressure at the beginning of the period, a cold front will move through Monday, and another high pressure will fill in behind the front. The 11/00Z GFS/GEFS doesn't show any precipitation as the front crosses the state, and neither does the 11/00Z ECMWF run, but the 10/12Z ECMWF/EPS runs had some light precipitation generally southeast of US-1. Maintaining forecast continuity, have made some slight tweaks to the spatial coverage of slight chance pops Monday evening, since the Grand Ensemble also supports precipitation Monday evening.
However, the European model suite also shows some minimal precipitation chances Tuesday as an upper trough swings through, but not seeing any other model guidance with precipitation for the trough, will maintain a dry forecast Tuesday.

While a cold front earlier this week brought the first consecutive days with highs in the 70s this fall for many locations, next week's cold front will be even more potent, bringing the first consecutive days with highs in the 60s - and some locations near the Virginia border won't even reach 60 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday. As for lows, Monday night will be a transition period, with lows in the upper 30s and 40s everywhere by Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 125 AM Friday...

VFR conditions will hold, with high confidence, across central NC today through tonight, as high pressure drifts overhead. Any clouds will be few and far between, with no vsby restrictions expected. The only potential concern is for borderline low level wind shear at FAY early this morning, a result of winds aloft (at 1200-1500 ft AGL)
from the NE at around 25-30 kts until 12z. Surface winds will remain light at all sites, under 8 kts, mainly from the N or NE this morning, then variable in direction later today through tonight.

Looking beyond 06z Sat, an increase in clouds is expected Mon into Tue with an incoming cold front and upper level disturbance, however VFR conditions are likely to persist through Tue, with very low chances for any rain. -GIH

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.