Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rocky Mount, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:58PM Thursday February 20, 2020 12:51 PM EST (17:51 UTC) Moonrise 5:13AMMoonset 3:13PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rocky Mount, NC
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location: 35.97, -77.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 201628 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1130 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will cross the Southeast states through tonight, as Arctic high pressure noses in from the northwest. The low will move offshore early Friday morning, with high pressure building over the region Friday through the weekend. This high pressure will move offshore Sunday night, with another storm system approaching from the west on Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 430 AM Thursday .

Changes: -Have upgraded the northern and central coastal plain counties to a Winter Storm Warning for 3 to 5 inches of snow.

-Have also expanded the Winter Storm Advisory to now include all of our southern tier counties, with storm total snowfall 1 to 2 inches, with some slightly higher amounts possible across the north central Piedmont.

Overall thinking has changed very little.

An expansive area of Arctic high pressure over the Central US will spread slowly east-southeastward into the region through Friday. Meanwhile, a secondary meso-scale bubble high has developed across Virginia tidewater region. Over the past 12 hours, it has been this high that has advected some modified cP air, featuring dewpoints in the 20s, into the NW Piedmont. Models indicate that this dry air will continue to advect south this afternoon through tonight, which will help to set the stage for a very complex winter storm.

In the meantime, a positive-tilted long wave trough, extending NE to SW from the Canadian maritimes to the Southern Rockies will amplify as it traverses ESE, reaching the Carolinas tonight, before moving offshore on Friday. The approach of the upper trough will give rise to cyclogenesis off the SE coast this afternoon, with the low moving NE, but remaining off the Carolina Coast this evening and overnight.

Renewed isentropic lift and overrunning along a sharpening H8 frontal zone retreating north into the area and within the right entrance region of the southern stream jet will result in light rain developing across southern portions of the area between 12 to 15z. Ensuing strong 700-850 Fgen will then fuel moderate to strong ascent across central NC between 18z Thu to 06z Friday, before this band weakens and pivots SE of the area through the predawn hours. Liquid equivalent is expected to range from around a 0.25" of an inch across the NW Piedmont to around an inch across southern coastal plain zones.

As the modified cP air advects south through the afternoon and evening, the higher precip rates associated with the F-gen band(s) will result in strong wet-bulb cooling effect, allowing a NW to SE change-over from rain to snow across the area through the afternoon and evening. A brief period of some transition sleet and/or freezing can be expected, but not significant. Snow will taper off NW to SE through the evening and overnight hours, will some lingering light snow/flurries across the SE zones during the predawn hours.

The proverbial "sweet spot" where the duration of liquid equivalent/saturation coincides with sufficiently cold air is expected to be across the northern and central coastal plain zones; with 3 to 4 inches of snow are possible. Elsewhere 1 to 3 inches are possible, with the lowest amounts across the southern/southwestern zones.

As previous forecasts have highlighted, this is a very complex scenario, where many things have to come together, including having to overcome both above freezing BL temps, and abnormally warm ground temps from what is currently the warmest DJF on record! Additionally, without being underneath the heavier precip bands, it may be very difficult to accumulate any snow prior to sunset.

Highs in the upper 30s/near 40 north to lower/mid 40s south, with gusty NELY into the teens to lower 20s, making it feel much cooler. Very cold tonight, especially with the potential for snow cover. Lows in the lower to mid 20s NW to lower 30s SE, with wind chills in the teens.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. As of 245 AM Thursday .

Cannot rule out a snow shower remaining across the southeast early Friday morning, but think the bulk of the precipitation will have departed to the east. Expect that the bigger concern will be with leftover liquid from today's rain and snow freezing on area roadways with morning temperatures in the 20s and lower 30s. Air temperatures are not expected to rise above freezing until about noon. The bulk of cloud cover will have also moved east of the region by sunrise, and the day should be full of sun. With a stiff northerly wind, only a few locations are expected to reach 40 degrees, with the bulk of the area remaining in the 30s. Wind chills will generally remain in the 20s. Winds will become light overnight as high pressure begins to move into the region and the pressure gradient relaxes. Lows everywhere will fall into the low to mid 20s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 245 AM Thursday .

Saturday and Sunday should be beautiful days as high pressure moves over the southeast United States. There will be little cloud cover and highs in the 50s.

Cloud cover will dramatically increase Sunday night as low pressure moves over the central Plains. Models have backed off the speed of this system, so have also cut back on pops Sunday night - and may not have been aggressive enough in reducing them. However, that low will still be the major weather maker through the first half of the week. The low will be near Cleveland by Tuesday morning and will race northeast to Maine by Wednesday morning. The bulk of the rain appears to be ahead of the front, which will pass over the Carolinas on Tuesday. Have likely pops in the forecast Monday and Monday night, dropping off to chance pops Tuesday before a brief respite Tuesday night. Another weaker system is expected to travel across the Appalachians Wednesday, bringing chance pops back into the forecast. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 1125 AM Thursday .

Aviation conditions will be generally poor over the next 24 hours, although they will improve late in the forecast period. The combination of a frontal zone sitting to our S, low pressure tracking eastward along this front, and Arctic high pressure nosing in from the NW and N will bring a threat of mostly wintry precip to central NC. VFR to MVFR conditions and a light rain/sleet mix in these first few hours of the TAF valid period will drop to IFR/LIFR by 21z areawide, with a wintry mix, mostly snow with a little rain/sleet at INT/GSO/RDU/RWI and mostly rain with a little snow/sleet at FAY, to follow from late afternoon through the early morning hours. Cigs will be mostly IFR, and precip may be heavy at times, mainly at RDU/RWI/FAY between 00z and 06z, reducing vsbys at times to LIFR. And just off the surface, we'll have winds from the NE at 25-35 kts above 1500 ft AGL starting early this evening and continuing through 18z Fri, and this may bring challenges in aircraft handling. Improvement to VFR is expected at RDU/RWI/FAY after 09z tonight, and at INT/GSO after 12z, as this storm system moves offshore.

Looking beyond 18z Fri, VFR conditions are expected to persist through Sun beneath deep high pressure, although wintry accumulation may linger on the ground through Fri night/Sat morning. The next storm system will arrive Mon, bringing a good chance of sub-VFR conditions with rain Mon through Tue. -GIH

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Friday for NCZ009>011-026>028-043-078. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Friday for NCZ007-008-021>025-038>042-073>077-083>086-088-089.



SYNOPSIS . Hartfield NEAR TERM . CBL SHORT TERM . Green LONG TERM . Green AVIATION . Hartfield


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 98 mi58 min NNE 2.9 G 7 45°F 50°F1029.5 hPa

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rocky Mount, Rocky Mount-Wilson Regional Airport, NC8 mi59 minNE 910.00 miOvercast44°F27°F51%1028.4 hPa
Tarboro-Edgecombe Airport, NC15 mi57 minNNE 810.00 miOvercast44°F27°F52%1028.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRWI

Wind History from RWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10NE10N14N7N7E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3NE4N5NE5NE8NE9NE7NE8NE9
1 day agoCalmS3S4S3SW3CalmS4S4S5S6S5S3SW4CalmSW3SW3CalmN5NE9N10N15
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2 days agoNE8NE8N6NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3--CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3CalmCalmCalmSW5Calm4

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Nansemond River, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:57 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:09 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:39 AM EST     3.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:55 PM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:05 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:54 PM EST     3.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60-0.20.10.71.62.53.33.83.83.52.71.80.90.2-00.30.91.72.533.22.92.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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