Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rocky Mount, NC

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:27PM Friday July 19, 2019 7:12 PM EDT (23:12 UTC) Moonrise 9:27PMMoonset 7:31AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rocky Mount, NC
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location: 35.97, -77.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 191946
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
346 pm edt Fri jul 19 2019

Synopsis
A strong ridge of high pressure will build over the mid atlantic
region through Sunday, then begin to break down and weaken Monday.

The current heat wave will continue and worsen through the weekend.

A pattern change to wetter and cooler weather will arrive next week.

Near term today through tonight
As of 155 pm Friday...

forecast remains on track, with isolated to scattered storms peaking
in the late afternoon early evening but lasting well into the night
as some elevated CAPE persists with weak residual boundaries. The
current thermal and moisture setup is similar to what it's been for
a few days, with moderate to high MLCAPE (1500-2500 j kg), low level
lapse rates near or just over 8 c km, and d-cape near or over 1000
j kg, but with poor deep layer shear and unimpressive mid level
lapse rates under 6 c km. As such, we should see another couple of
cells today with the potential for strong downburst winds but
without much high reflectivity well aloft. The subtle mid level
shear axis still extends through central nc, although the weak winds
aloft are limiting its contribution to ascent. Will maintain
isolated pops except over the far S and e, where better deep
moisture should boost coverage. Weak elevated CAPE should hold well
into the night, so will be slow to trail pops off overnight. The
heat advisory will be held as is for E sections through 7 pm. Lows
71-78 under fair to partly cloudy skies. -gih

Short term Saturday through Saturday night
As of 210 pm Friday...

Excessive heat warning now in effect for Saturday Saturday night
for the eastern piedmont, sandhills, and coastal plain, with a
heat advisory over the western piedmont...

the extreme heat remains the big story heading into the weekend,
with a greater potential for adverse health impacts as people engage
in outdoor activities this weekend. The extended length of this heat
wave with minimal cooling at night only heightens the concern, as
studies of previous deadly heat waves have similarly been long-lived
with very muggy nights during which temps barely dip below 80f. The
mid level ridge axis builds strongly across nc this weekend, with
the low level thermal ridge holding firm from central nc northeast
across central E va and de md, where low level thicknesses may
approach 1450 m with 850 mb temps sitting in the 19-21c range. As
the light SW low level flow ensures elevated dewpoints well into the
70s, the heat indices are expected to climb to 108-113f over the
eastern two-thirds of the central nc forecast area Saturday.

Elsewhere, readings are expected to reach near 105 for at least a
couple of hours. Will convert the existing excessive heat watch for
sat Sat night to an excessive heat warning for these eastern areas,
and will post a heat advisory for the rest of central nc including
the triad. (the watch will remain in place for the same eastern
sections for sun; see the long term discussion for details.) while
pw will stay above normal, the warmth of the entire column and a
lack of substantial boundaries or triggers aloft to focus convection
should restrict storm coverage, and will leave pops as isolated.

Expect highs of 94-99 followed by lows of 73-78. -gih

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 345 pm Friday...

the upper ridge remains in place on Sunday with the bermuda high in
place at the surface. This will give us yet another, but hopefully a
final day of extreme heat across central nc. An excessive heat watch
remains in place from us highway 1 eastward for heat index values of
110 degrees and above. Points west can expect 105-109 degree heat
indices.

For Monday the pattern begins to change as an upper level trough
begins to dig into the great lakes region from canada, but it is a
bit delayed compared to previous runs of the models and thus we will
still have a fairly hot day on Monday for much of the area with
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s east of highway 1 but some
relief at least to the lower 90s in the triad. Heat index values
will also be lower but still 100-104 across the east.

Overnight Monday night a low pressure system will begin to develop
over new york as the upper trough continues to dig through the ohio
valley. The surface low will track into new england Tuesday morning
and a strong frontal zone will track across the appalachians and
into the carolinas on Tuesday, bringing a fair amount of rain to
central nc and more importantly, extinguishing the heat as the triad
will struggle to get to 80 degrees with mid 80s across the
southeast. The front will linger along the coast or slightly inland
through the end of the week, potentially bringing some higher rain
totals to this portion of the state with upwards of 2 inches
possible through Thursday. Temperatures are gradually expected to
warm through the 80s towards 90 degrees by the end of the week but
still much more comfortable than what we are currently experiencing.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
As of 1235 pm Friday...

vfr conditions will continue to dominate through the next 24 hrs
over central nc. Hot conditions will continue with deep mixing,
resulting in high-based convective clouds in the afternoon and areas
of mid and high clouds resulting from dissipated storms through sat
morning. Isolated showers storms and storm clusters remain possible,
mainly 20z-06z with higher chances at fay and lower chances
elsewhere, but these should be few in number and largely
circumnavigable. Winds will be mostly light from the sw, although a
few infrequent gusts to 15-18 kts are possible this afternoon.

Looking beyond 18z sat, isolated storms will again be possible each
afternoon evening Sat and sun, but coverage will be low. Storm
chances will increase Mon as a cold front approaches from the nw,
and good shower storm chances will persist Tue Wed as the front
settles southeastward over the region. The risk of early-morning sub-
vfr fog stratus will remain low through Mon morning, but chances
will start to inch up for Tue and Wed morning. -gih

Climate
Record high temperatures and years for the next few days.

Rdu gso fay
fri 7 19 101 1902 98 1977 101 2002
sat 7 20 102 1942 100 1977 104 1932
sun 7 21 102 2011 102 1926 105 1937
mon 7 22 103 2011 101 1926 107 1932

Rah watches warnings advisories
Excessive heat warning from 10 am Saturday to 6 am edt Sunday for
ncz007>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089.

Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for ncz007>011-024>028-
040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089.

Excessive heat watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
ncz007>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089.

Heat advisory from 10 am Saturday to 6 am edt Sunday for ncz021>023-
038-039-073-074-083-084.

Synopsis... Badgett
near term... Hartfield
short term... Hartfield
long term... Ellis
aviation... Hartfield
climate... Cc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 98 mi55 min S 5.1 G 7 90°F 87°F1012.8 hPa

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rocky Mount, Rocky Mount-Wilson Regional Airport, NC8 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair84°F71°F65%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from RWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW6E3SE4SE5S3CalmCalmCalmS3S3S5S6SW6S7S8S7SW8SW8S8S4SW6W5Calm
1 day agoS8S7S9S6S9SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Nansemond River, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:54 AM EDT     4.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:12 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:18 PM EDT     3.74 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:11 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.14.343.32.31.30.60.20.40.91.82.73.43.73.63.12.31.40.70.40.51.122.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.