NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 235 AM Friday...

Patchy ground fog will be an issue through mid morning, then expect a largely dry day for most, but with isolated afternoon showers primarily over the W and S Piedmont into the Sandhills.

A diffuse MSLP pattern persists over NC early this morning, and the combination of this very weak near-surface flow fostering nocturnal stabilization along with a damp ground has prompted patchy fog formation, much of it shallow and pooled in low spots. Areas of mid clouds have hindered prime radiational cooling over our far W and E areas, but as these mid clouds continue to drift southward through this morning, most places should see at least some fog, some of it dense. Will monitor for the need for a dense fog advisory.

Otherwise, once the fog lifts and disperses by mid to late morning, skies should be partly cloudy, but various models and ensemble systems differ on rain chances. Deterministic models such as the GFS and ECMWF paint a wide swath of precip across all but our far NE this afternoon into early evening, with peaks in amounts over the SW Piedmont, a solution mostly corroborated by the NAM and latest RAP runs. But ensemble output such as the NBM and HRRR show only a few fleeting isolated showers today into tonight. Observational data does show support for at least some weak forcing for ascent today, with weak perturbations seen on current GOES layer WV imagery over W PA on pace to drop through VA into N NC by this evening, and daytime heating with surface dewpoints in the 60s and minor moisture flux from a damp ground could result in a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE later today. Will include a period of isolated showers across the W and S Piedmont into the Sandhills later today, with the dry mid levels likely to curb most deep convection that could generate lightning. Highs from the upper 70s to mid 80s. Any showers should peter out and shift to our S early this evening, leaving dry conditions overnight, however another round of patchy fog and low stratus is probable late tonight, following persistence with little change in antecedent conditions and surface wind. Lows generally 60 to 65. -GIH

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 315 AM Friday...

Confidence is increasing in scattered showers and perhaps a few storms across the N and W Piedmont and far NE late Sat. A prominent shortwave seen on WV imagery over the Upper Midwest is on track to round the top of the amplified ridge centered over TX and covering much of the central CONUS through tonight, before diving SE through the Mid Atlantic region late Sat and Sat night. While the timing of this DPVA may not take full advantage of the daytime heating and resulting destabilization this far SE, we should see an uptick in mid level flow to support some deeper convection esp over the mountains to our NW, and this activity may spill SE into our NW and far N sections very late in the day and through the evening. Most deterministic models and ensemble systems support this, with isolated to scattered coverage across our NW and far N late afternoon through the evening, and this is where we'll have 15%-30% pops, mainly from 21z-06z but with perhaps an isolated shower or two lingering in the far NE overnight. With dry weather through much of the Sat daytime hours, temps should reach slightly above normal highs around 80 to the mid 80s, as thicknesses are projected to be 5- 10 m above normal. Lows in the low-mid 60s Sat night. -GIH

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 325 PM Thursday...

Saturday morning, surface high pressure will be centered over eastern Canada with a pressure ridge extending all the way to the Gulf Coast. A weak front will move across the area Saturday night.
Am not terribly impressed by the depth of the moisture with the front, but there are too many models, deterministic and ensembles, to keep a dry forecast in that time period. Rainfall does not appear to be substantial, but have gone ahead and added slight chance pops across the northern half of the area. Sunday and Monday continue to have a dry forecast as high pressure reestablishes itself, with just the Triad being clipped on Tuesday with a slight chance of showers in advance of the next front. Low pressure will move across the Great Lakes during the middle of the week, and it currently appears that the most likely timing for any showers or thunderstorms with the upcoming cold front will be Wednesday night. Highs will be slightly above normal for the weekend, then drop a few degrees below normal for the weekdays. Lows will be near normal through the extended period.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 100 AM Friday...

The chance for MVFR-IFR fog remain high early this morning (mainly 07z-14z), due to warm moist air and very light winds near the ground. Areas of mid clouds currently cover the far W Piedmont (including GSO and esp INT) as well as our NE sections, which is helping to keep fog from becoming too widespread so far, however as these mid clouds continue to push southward and break up, widespread dense fog and areas of low cigs in stratus are likely. There are no strong indicators favoring one particular terminal over another for dense fog formation, but most guidance indicates the best chances are E of the Triad, including RDU/RWI/FAY which have all seen some rain in the last 24 hours to further moisten the ground. A gradual dispersion and mixing out of fog/stratus will result in a trend to VFR conditions by 16z, persisting through early tonight. Isolated showers are possible later today, but overall the vast majority of the area will stay dry. Surface winds will remain light (under 10 kt) mainly from the NE or ENE through tonight.

Looking beyond 06z Sat, another round of areas of early-morning fog and stratus producing sub-VFR conditions is possible 08z-14z Sat morning across central NC terminals, otherwise VFR conditions are favored to dominate through early Sun night. A backdoor front will drop through NC Sun night as high pressure noses in from the north, bring another chance of sub-VFR conditions early Mon morning and again early Tue morning. Mostly dry weather will persist, however, through Tue. -GIH

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.