Wake Forest, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wake Forest, NC

June 15, 2024 11:33 PM EDT (03:33 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 8:33 PM
Moonrise 1:35 PM   Moonset 12:54 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wake Forest, NC
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Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 160103 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 900 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
A stationary front will remain pinned south of central North Carolina through tonight then pivot up across western North Carolina through Sunday. High pressure will extend into the region from the Atlantic through much of the upcoming week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 900 PM Saturday...

A 1022mb surface high pressure located over the Great Lakes this evening will continue shifting eastward toward New England tonight behind a cold front that has settled and stalled south of our area.
Behind the front dewpoints have fallen into the lower 60s and upper 50s, especially across the north. The seabreeze has been penetrating inland aggressively this evening and allowing some elevated dewpoints to also penetrate back inland. There is relatively good model agreement that moisture confined to a shallow layer below a strong subsidence inversion at 700mb, will shift westward into the western Piedmont overnight with increasing easterly low-level flow flow around the high to our north. The NAM even suggest a tongue of up to 1000 MUCAPE nosing toward the Triad by 09Z, and while that amount of CAPE may be overdone, the HRRR has been consistent in developing some showers in the western Piedmont by daybreak. There is some evidence of the shower activity in the southern NC mountains already this evening. If the showers do not develop prior to sunrise, the moisture convergence should be available for isolated showers through mid morning, with a fair amount of stratus or stratocu. Lows tonight in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 225 PM Sunday...

A strong ~593dm upper level anticyclone will shift eastward and will become centered over NC. Underneath the associated 30 meter H5 rises, surface high centered over New England will ridge south down the mid-Atlantic and Carolina seaboard.

Differential heating and terrain-induced lift via low-level SELY flow along the eastern slopes of the southern Appalachians will support scattered showers and storms across the NC mtns and foothills during the afternoon and evening. Given proximity to this weak forcing and/or associated outflow, cannot rule out a stray shower across the far western counties. Otherwise, dry conditions will persist.

The low-level easterly maritime flow into the area will also result in slightly cooler daytime highs. Highs ranging from mid 80s north to lower 90s south, with noticeably less humid air, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area near the low-level ridge axis where dewpoints will lower into the 50s.

Lows Sunday night 63-68 with some patchy fog/stratus possible.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 233 PM Saturday...

...Hot and dry next week with increasing temperatures and minimal rain chances...

The forecast for much of the upcoming week will feature dry weather with increasingly warm temperatures. An anomalously strong H5 ridge (with heights around 592-594dm) will center itself over NC on Monday and remain virtually stationary through the middle of the week. At the surface, high pressure off the coast will promote a prolonged period of southeasterly winds through Wednesday. While there will be some moisture on the periphery of the ridge, it's likely to pool against the mountains to our west with any potential for showers or storms confined to areas of the far western Piedmont. Elsewhere, it'll be a challenge to get much more than high clouds across the area given strong subsidence throughout the column. Temperatures for the first half of the week should range from the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

On Thursday the ridge will strengthen further and begin to shift northward. By late week, 500mb heights are forecast to approach 596- 597dm which would be near record values at KGSO for mid June. At the surface, this will translate to even warmer temperatures with late week highs ranging from the mid to upper 90s. Return flow from the ridge will serve to advect additional moisture into the area and precip chances will increase, but only slightly. Strong subsidence aloft will likely limit the potential for any widespread/beneficial precipitation across the area but afternoon pulse-type showers could potentially become more common by next weekend. Grand ensemble still only suggesting 10-15 percent PoPs late in the week which is certainly higher than earlier in the week, but still below climo. Of note: there are some 12Z ensemble members that suggest a subtropical plume of moisture and troughing will enter the area late in the week but exactly how that evolves and what (if any) forcing mechanism comes into play is still very uncertain.

In terms of sensible weather impacts next week, increasing temperatures could be problematic for individuals that are sensitive to heat. While Heat Index values will generally stay out of the triple digits through next Saturday (thanks in large part to dewpoints in the 60s vs the 70s), other heat tools such as Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (which takes into account full exposure to the sun along with wind speeds and humidity) and HeatRisk (which examines temperatures relative to climatology along with CDC data) suggest next weekend's conditions could warrant the first heat-related headlines of the year for portions of central NC. However, the chance of showers and storms and associated cloud cover could keep conditions below dangerous values, adding to the uncertainty of next weekend's forecast.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 750 PM Saturday...

There is a low probability of a brief MVFR to IFR cig may develop near the Triad terminals within a tongue of increased moisture as it advects E to W across central NC after midnight. Confidence remains low on the development of low MVFR cigs after daybreak at GSO/INT, but latest NWP continues to hint at this possibility especially among the more pessimistic guidance. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF period. Surface winds will remain stirred overnight veering to E to SE through the afternoon/evening.

Outlook: Some early morning stratus is possible at KINT/KGSO Mon morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period.


RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KLHZ TRIANGLE NORTH EXECUTIVE,NC 11 sm48 mincalm10 smClear70°F57°F64%30.11
KRDU RALEIGHDURHAM INTL,NC 16 sm42 minENE 0810 smA Few Clouds79°F55°F45%30.09
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Raleigh/Durham, NC,




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