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FXUS62 KRAH 300821 CCA AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 315 AM EST THU Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
Surface high pressure across the Southeast early this morning will shift offshore this afternoon. A warm front will develop off the Carolina coast tonight, then move inland and stall over the west- central Carolinas Friday and Friday night. A cold front will approach from the west over the weekend as multiple upper-air disturbances move across the region.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 950 PM Wednesday...

Another unseasonably cold and dry night ahead

Low amplitude mid/upper-level ridging now centered over the mid MS Valley, and preceding strong height rises (80-120 meters), will move east and across the lwr Great Lakes and middle Atlantic tonight.
Deep subsidence, and dryness characterized by 00Z-observed PWs of around a quarter inch or less across the region, will result.
However, satellite data depict a large area of mostly thin, high clouds stretching this evening from the nrn GOM to the upr Midwest; and these will continue to stream east and across cntl NC overnight.
Some orographic/standing wave influence has already been noted this evening around AVL, but backing of winds aloft with time suggest that enhancement should remain over wrn NC. As such, strong radiational cooling will continue amid calm to occasional sswly surface stirring around a modified Arctic high centered over the Southeast. Previously forecast low temperatures in the upr teens to upr 20s needed little adjustment.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 210 PM Wednesday...

High pressure will be centered just offshore the Carolinas Thursday morning, broadly extending from the southern Atlantic Ocean into the southeastern United States. The high will continue moving farther to the east through the period, while low pressure develops over Texas and moves northeast into the central Plains. Have maintained the dry forecast that was inherited for Thursday and Thursday night. Rising heights will result in highs about 10 degrees warmer than today, which should bring temperatures near seasonal values. Clear skies and light winds should allow temperatures to drop quickly after sunset, then become nearly steady after midnight as high clouds move in from west to east. Lows will also be seasonable in the 30s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 315 AM Thursday...

The upper air pattern at the start of the long term period features an upper level ridge across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and southwestern Atlantic with a developing trough across the northern Plains. A fast northern jet stream is joined by the subtropical jet across the MO Valley on Saturday with a moist southwesterly flow across the southeastern U.S. persisting through the weekend as the upper trough shifts into the western Great Lakes late Sunday. At the surface, the lingering wedge front across the far western/northern Piedmont on Saturday morning lifts north into the mid-Atlantic as a southwesterly flow transports moist air into the region with surface dew points climbing through the 50s with dew points reaching 60 in the Triangle by Saturday evening and the lower 60s across the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. These elevated dew points will persist through Sunday evening.

Precipitation chances will be limited early Saturday morning with slight chance PoPs across the north near the VA border and chance PoPs elsewhere. The threat of rain will increase from the south and southwest on Saturday morning and especially the afternoon as the upper trough and strengthening upper jet approach, a mid-level short wave trough moves northeast across the area, and as a region of low level isentropic lift centered near the 300-305K surfaces moves across the area. Rain chances continue on Saturday night and decrease a bit into Sunday when the precipitation will become more showery and a little more scattered. Will not include any mention of thunder at this point given the stable nature of the airmass on Saturday although a thunderstorm can't be ruled out across the east on Sunday with some steepening of mid level lapse rates. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, warm and somewhat muggy conditions are expected through the weekend. Rainfall amounts from 12Z Saturday to Sunday night will range from around a quarter to a third of an inch near the VA border, to around a half inch in the Triad and Triangle and three quarters of an inch across the south including Fayetteville.

In addition to the much needed rain, a big story will be the arrival of much above average temperatures and a little humidness with dewpoints in the upper 50s to the lower 60s in much of the area.
Highs both days this weekend will range from the lower 60s in the Triad and VA border counties to the near 70 across the south. Sunday may be a couple of degrees warmer than Saturday. These highs are about 5 to 12 degrees above average. Lows will be mild and range in the 50 on Sunday morning which is about 15 to 20 degrees above average.

The trough axis advances east on Sunday night into Monday as a strong northern stream short wave trough rips across the TN Valley and into the Carolinas on Monday and Monday night. An associated cold front moves into the western Carolinas on Sunday night and then off the coast by Monday morning. This will bring the precipitation to and end by Sunday night with a cooler and drier airmass spilling into the region on Monday into Tuesday with clearing skies. Highs on Monday will range in the lower to mid 60s or about 5 degrees above average with highs on Tuesday in the mid 50s to around 60 which is close to average.

A robust short wave trough drops across the OH Valley into the Carolinas on Wednesday and Wednesday night. This Clipper system lacks deep moisture but will bring some mid and high level moisture and cloudiness. Given the dry low levels and a westerly to northwesterly low level flow, will keep the forecast dry. Highs on Wednesday will range in the lower to mid 50s. -Blaes

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 1225 AM Thursday...

Through 06Z Friday: Clouds during the next 24 hours will be mainly high and with no vsby restrictions, thus VFR conditions during the TAF period. Winds will be 10kt or less during this time.

After 06Z Friday: Moisture advection assoc with deep S-SW flow ahead of the next trough will result in increasing clouds on Friday with some light rain possible, esp over the Piedmont. Thus look for some patchy sub-VFR conditions then. Persistent moist SW flow will keep the risk for sub-VFR clouds and rain chances in the forecast right through the weekend until the upper trough axis moves through the area early Monday... after which VFR conditions should return for the first half of the week.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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