Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Knoxville, TN
April 23, 2025 11:06 PM EDT (03:06 UTC)
Change Location
Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:50 AM Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 3:27 AM Moonset 2:40 PM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Knoxville, TN
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS64 KMRX 232320 AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 720 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Key Messages:
1. Periods of showers and storms through the period. Greatest coverage this evening and especially for Thursday afternoon/evening.
2. Slightly above normal temperatures through Thursday.
Discussion:
Meso-analysis shows marginal instability with MLCAPES of 1000-1500 over much of east Tennessee and southwest North Carolina with more stable airmass over southwest Virginia. Effective shear is weak and generally less than 25 knots. DCAPE of 600 or less, weak boundary layer winds, and mid-level lapse rates of 6 degrees of less depict a limited environment for severe storms. Some isolated strong convection with gusts of 35 mph, brief heavy rain, and lightning are expected through early this evening.
Main forcing is orographic lift thus greatest coverage along over/near the Plateau and far east Tennessee/southwest North Carolina.
For Tonight, isolated showers are expected otherwise deterministic and ensemble models shows increasing high and mid- level clouds which will limit fog development overnight/early Thursday morning.
For Thursday, the deterministic models and ensemble solutions depict increasing coverage of convection. This is due to the short-wave over east Texas/mid-Mississippi valley moving slowly across the Tennessee valley for tomorrow. A fairly saturated vertical profile so expect a good deal of coverage of showers and embedded storms. Again, instability and shear are limited for any severe development at best.
Overall, temperatures will be slight above normal through the period.
LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Key Messages: 1. Wet pattern continues through Saturday then drying out some for early next week.
2. Overall, slightly above normal temperatures are expected throughout much of the extended forecast, especially for early to mid next week.
Discussion:
For Friday, a fairly progressive upper air pattern with a series of short-waves moving across the region. Instability is marginal with MLCAPES of 1000 or less with weak shear and saturated environment. Limited chance of strong storms but scattered to wide spread convection expected.
For Saturday, an upper trough sweeps across the Great Lakes and upper Ohio valley pulling a frontal boundary through the region.
Again, instability limited ahead of frontal boundary and the majority of the dynamics stays well north of the area. Ensemble QPF is quite low and generally below 0.25 inch.
For Sunday through Tuesday, upper ridging builds across the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians with warming temperatures. Unseasonably warm with highs some 10+ degrees above normal for Monday and Tuesday. By Tuesday, deterministic and ensemble models show increasing boundary layer moisture with a return of terrain forced afternoon/evening convection.
For Wednesday, upper ridge weakens allowing for more widespread mainly afternoon/evening storms.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Storms will continue to roam the southern Appalachians through the evening. Coverage will diminish with the setting sun, but a few stray storms will stick around past midnight. Expect another round of storms tomorrow. Certainty is high that storms will occur, but low confidence on timing of when they'll impact a terminal.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 61 78 63 / 60 40 70 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 59 78 61 / 40 30 70 30 Oak Ridge, TN 78 59 78 60 / 50 30 70 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 55 78 58 / 30 20 60 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 720 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Key Messages:
1. Periods of showers and storms through the period. Greatest coverage this evening and especially for Thursday afternoon/evening.
2. Slightly above normal temperatures through Thursday.
Discussion:
Meso-analysis shows marginal instability with MLCAPES of 1000-1500 over much of east Tennessee and southwest North Carolina with more stable airmass over southwest Virginia. Effective shear is weak and generally less than 25 knots. DCAPE of 600 or less, weak boundary layer winds, and mid-level lapse rates of 6 degrees of less depict a limited environment for severe storms. Some isolated strong convection with gusts of 35 mph, brief heavy rain, and lightning are expected through early this evening.
Main forcing is orographic lift thus greatest coverage along over/near the Plateau and far east Tennessee/southwest North Carolina.
For Tonight, isolated showers are expected otherwise deterministic and ensemble models shows increasing high and mid- level clouds which will limit fog development overnight/early Thursday morning.
For Thursday, the deterministic models and ensemble solutions depict increasing coverage of convection. This is due to the short-wave over east Texas/mid-Mississippi valley moving slowly across the Tennessee valley for tomorrow. A fairly saturated vertical profile so expect a good deal of coverage of showers and embedded storms. Again, instability and shear are limited for any severe development at best.
Overall, temperatures will be slight above normal through the period.
LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Key Messages: 1. Wet pattern continues through Saturday then drying out some for early next week.
2. Overall, slightly above normal temperatures are expected throughout much of the extended forecast, especially for early to mid next week.
Discussion:
For Friday, a fairly progressive upper air pattern with a series of short-waves moving across the region. Instability is marginal with MLCAPES of 1000 or less with weak shear and saturated environment. Limited chance of strong storms but scattered to wide spread convection expected.
For Saturday, an upper trough sweeps across the Great Lakes and upper Ohio valley pulling a frontal boundary through the region.
Again, instability limited ahead of frontal boundary and the majority of the dynamics stays well north of the area. Ensemble QPF is quite low and generally below 0.25 inch.
For Sunday through Tuesday, upper ridging builds across the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians with warming temperatures. Unseasonably warm with highs some 10+ degrees above normal for Monday and Tuesday. By Tuesday, deterministic and ensemble models show increasing boundary layer moisture with a return of terrain forced afternoon/evening convection.
For Wednesday, upper ridge weakens allowing for more widespread mainly afternoon/evening storms.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Storms will continue to roam the southern Appalachians through the evening. Coverage will diminish with the setting sun, but a few stray storms will stick around past midnight. Expect another round of storms tomorrow. Certainty is high that storms will occur, but low confidence on timing of when they'll impact a terminal.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 61 78 63 / 60 40 70 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 59 78 61 / 40 30 70 30 Oak Ridge, TN 78 59 78 60 / 50 30 70 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 55 78 58 / 30 20 60 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KTYS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTYS
Wind History Graph: TYS
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of great lakes
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Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,
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