Knoxville, TN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Knoxville, TN

June 16, 2024 8:42 PM EDT (00:42 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 8:55 PM
Moonrise 2:55 PM   Moonset 1:39 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Knoxville, TN
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Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN
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FXUS64 KMRX 162330 AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 730 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Key Messages:

1. Storms from this afternoon dissipating quickly this evening.

2. Hot again Monday with another chance of afternoon and early evening storms.

Discussion:

The upper high center is past us now, leaving us with a little less suppression of afternoon storms. Storms that develop this afternoon should dissipate during the evening cooling, with another round Monday afternoon. Both days will have the best chances of storm in the mountains, however, on Monday the upper flow will be more favorable for bringing convection out into the valley, so there should be better coverage of storms up the I-81 corridor as storms from the southern Appalachians move quickly off the mountains northwestward across the valley. Also, dewpoints will be higher Monday up the I-81 corridor as the return flow continues.

The storms from this afternoon will tend to travel to the northeast along the terrain, but outflow boundaries will cause subsequent storms on the flanks of the previous cells that will allow for chances of storms in the foothills and somewhat out into the valley as well. Also, storms are traveling very slowly so localize flooding is possible, but once again things should fall apart this evening.

Temperatures will be hot again Monday but still staying below advisory levels.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Key Messages:

1. Hot weather to continue.

2. Low (20 to 30%) chances for thunderstorms to return for the weekend.

Discussion:

The upper ridge that we will be talking about no matter how tired we are of talking about it starts out due east of us on Tuesday before beginning its vacation stay in the Mid Atlantic on Wednesday. With our region on the edge of the highest heights of the anomalous ridge, we will continue to run a few degrees above average but should stay below our daily record highs. Ridge strength will peak in intensity around 600 dm near NJ and NY by Thursday afternoon.
Locally here 700 mb heights will be near seasonal records on both Wednesday and Thursday, which should help to stymie any convection chances, especially with no other synoptic support to counterbalance the ridge.

By Friday we might start to see some relief, ensembles have yet to get on board, but both GFS and Euro deterministic guidance have persisted in showing a weak tropical or subtropical low moving underneath the ridge and coming ashore in the southeast on Thursday.
The path of the low thereafter is uncertain, but if it comes up our way hopefully we can at least get clouds to stifle the heat. The ridge position will be a little further south at this point, so the existence of this low will be crucial to how pleasant or unpleasant the start of the weekend shall be. To get a sense of spread, the ensembles and NBM depict 93F in Chattanooga on Friday for a high, GFS a little quicker with the low gets to 87F, and the Euro sits at a cool 71F. In this case we have no choice but to wait and see and stick close to the NBM and ensemble consensus, and meanwhile hope the deterministic are right in their potential solutions. Should the relief from the east not come to fruition, heat will persist a bit longer before a potential break from a western trough arrives beyond this period.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Isolated thunderstorms will continue for the first couple of hours of this TAF cycle. Afterwards expect VFR conditions with high clouds overhead. Another round of afternoon thunderstorms is expected again tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 94 74 91 / 10 20 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 92 71 92 / 20 40 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 70 92 70 91 / 10 30 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 88 68 89 / 10 60 10 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.




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Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,




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