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FXUS64 KMRX 290844 AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 344 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 318 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Key Messages:

1. Warmer today but high temps still slightly below normal.

2. Breezy again this afternoon, but not as windy as yesterday.

3. Enhanced Fire Danger in place today due to low RH and breezy winds.

Discussion:

A very cold start this morning with temperatures around 15 degrees below normal. The upper trough to our northeast is currently pushing further east and high pressure is gradually nudging in from the southwest. Heights will rise today and the 850 mb flow becomes more westerly. This will allow temps to rise into the upper 40s and lower 50s, which is 5 to 10 degrees below normal. 30 to 35 knots of flow is present at 850mb today due to a moderately tight pressure gradient between the high to our southwest and the trough over New England. This means another day of breezy conditions across the higher elevations, but not as windy as yesterday. Elevations above 4000 feet will see gusts from 25 to 35 mph. A steep mid-level inversion will persist across our lower elevation valley locations through late morning to early afternoon. This will keep winds on the calmer side until better mixing occurs by mid afternoon. Then, breezy winds will develop for most valley locations with gusts from 15 to 20 mph.

With the warmer temperatures today, and still dry airmass, moderately low RH values are expected this afternoon. Low RH combined with breezy afternoon winds will elevate fire weather concerns from mid to late afternoon. An Enhanced Fire Danger statement has been issued for most of the area through this evening.

Tonight, warmer temps are expected due to southwest flow developing along with increasing high clouds. Temps will be around 5 degrees below normal.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Key Messages:

1. Dry conditions Thursday with a warming temperature trend continuing.

2. Rain still expected late Thursday night and Friday, and strong gusty winds possible for that same time period in the higher elevations and foothills.

3. Additional rain possible at times Friday night through Monday however considerable uncertainty on the details.

4. Colder Monday night and Tuesday.

Discussion:

Thursday begins the extended forecast with upper level short wave ridging and a broad surface high pressure situated over the Eastern Tennessee Valley. Thursday stays dry, with warmer temperatures continuing.

Changes in the pattern start Thursday night as an upper level short wave lift out of the southern Plains Thursday night and then continues eastward with a weakening trend while moving across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the day Friday. A strengthening low level jet develops out ahead of the system late Thursday night through Friday afternoon. This will bring winds up to about 20 mph from the south and southeast with gusts to about 40 mph in the eastern Tennessee mountains and foothills. A wind advisory still looks possible late Thursday night and Friday. Rainfall amounts look to be about 0.50 inches through Friday. The surface low will weaken as it moves northeast across the Ohio Valley Friday night. There will be enough instability for a few thunderstorms in the south Saturday. Early Saturday the front will be moving through east Tennessee but moisture will linger in the area especially south with another shortwave Saturday night into Sunday.

Sunday night a new upper trough will move from the northwest to the southeast into the eastern Tennessee Valley. Low pressure moves across the Ohio Valley with another cold front Monday into Monday night with some light precipitation. The airmass may be cold enough for some light snow in the higher elevations of the mountains Monday night and Tuesday. Precipitation amounts for the last three days of the forecast period are trending lighter with amounts mostly less than 0.25 inches. Temperatures will be above normal through much of the extended with highs in the 60s over the weekend cooling to the 50s Tuesday behind last front and much cooler in the higher elevations.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy afternoon winds at TYS and TRI with gusts up to 20kts from the southwest.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 32 60 45 / 0 0 0 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 32 60 42 / 0 0 0 60 Oak Ridge, TN 50 29 58 40 / 0 0 0 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 27 56 35 / 0 0 0 30

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

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