Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Knoxville, TN
February 17, 2025 6:25 AM EST (11:25 UTC) Change Location
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Area Discussion for Morristown, TN
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FXUS64 KMRX 170830 AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 330 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
Key Messages:
1. Light snow showers and flurries continue through the early morning hours, especially in the east TN mountains and southwest Virginia. Any accumulations expected to be minor.
2. Cold today with decreasing clouds southwest to northeast. Cold tonight with lighter winds.
3. Warmer Tuesday with increasing clouds.
Discussion:
Regional radar imagery is still showing some light snow showers or flurries moving southeast across southeast Kentucky into southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee south to about the Knoxville Airport. Weak vorticity was showing on short term models especially around 06Z tonight and decreasing by about 12Z this morning. The cold air advection should start to decrease later tonight, with winds slowly lowering late tonight and cloud ceilings beginning to lift as the drier airmass filters into the forecast area. Will keep flurries in the forecast to about sunrise or 12-13Z. Not expecting any significant accumulation but a few lower elevation spots in the northeast part of the forecast area where flurries have lasted longer may get a dusting before the flurries end later this morning. The higher mountains of Virginia and east Tennessee may see an inch or possibly more by daylight.
The main story today will be the return of the sunshine after the low level moisture gets scoured out which should be by mid to late morning in the southeast near Chattanooga and not until early afternoon central valley. The northeast parts may not break out until late afternoon. The time of clearing will affect highs and this will keep higher elevations near freezing but elsewhere they will be about 10 degrees below normal, upper 30s to mid 40s.
The nice cool weather today will not stay long as changes start tonight as clouds increase ahead of the next system developing in the Rockies and spreading into the Plains states overnight. The upper trough behind Sundays cold front will move out during the day today as surface high pressure centered in south central Canada moves southeast into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Another cold night like this morning Monday night. Some moisture spreads into the Ohio Valley early Tuesday which will begin to spread clouds south into Tennessee as well. Think airmass will be too dry for any precipitation. The upper flow will become more zonal Tuesday and temperatures will warm about 5 degrees above today but still below average for mid February.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
Key Messages:
1. Increasing chance for snowfall across most of the area Wednesday into Thursday.
2. Very cold temperatures through Friday, with a weekend warming trend, but still below normal temperatures.
Discussion:
After a nice preview of spring-like weather the past couple of weeks, winter will return in full force this week as a winter storm affects the area on Wednesday and Thursday, accompanied by bitterly cold temperatures through Friday.
At the start of this period, strong high pressure over south-central Canada will extend east across the OH Valley, while a surface low develops near the TX coastline. The low will track east near the Gulf Coast and strengthen as the upper flow becomes more amplified across the Southeast. QG forcing in the jet entrance region will bring precip into our area starting late Tuesday night, ramping up in intensity Wednesday morning. Cold surface air supplied by the strong high will initially be below freezing in most of the area, aided by evaporative cooling and as the column moistens from the top down. Precip begins as snow at onset Tuesday night, but an uncertainty with this system is the potential for low level warming during the day with the increasing sun angle, the inverted surface trough across the TN Valley, and potential downslope warming from southerly winds around 25-30 kt at mountaintop level. Models are not in good agreement in their depictions of the low level temperature profile. The Wednesday morning commute could be impacted as that will likely be the time of greatest snowfall rates, and confidence is higher that most of the precip will be snow early Wednesday morning.
The 850-700 mb trough crosses the area in the afternoon, with a NW flow pattern developing. Cold advection with steepening lapse rates will keep scattered to numerous snow showers going through Wednesday night, with some upslope enhancement in the higher terrain. With decreasing moisture depth, snow showers become more isolated with some flurries Wednesday night, with additional accumulations only in the higher elevations by Thursday morning.
Right now, the expectation is for Advisory-level snow amounts for most of the area (1-3" except less than 1" in the southern tier of counties), with potentially higher amounts in parts of SW VA the mountains. Confidence of snow accumulation is highest in the northern Cumberland Plateau and SW VA, with lower confidence going south. The cold temperatures Wednesday night through Thursday night (highs in the 20s to low 30s, lows in the teens) combined with even a little snow accumulation may make for difficult travel conditions during this period. Thursday's highs in the 20s could be within a few degrees of record low maximum temperatures for the date.
The remainder of the forecast will be dry with a warming trend, although temperatures will still be below normal as most of the eastern US will be under a broad upper trough through the weekend.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
Low clouds continue tonight with MVFR ceilings between 1500 and 2500 ft through about 12Z Monday. Patchy snow flurries are expected but with no reductions in the visibility near TRI overnight and next few hours at TYS. Otherwise, no impacts expected. Winds are subsiding at CHA and TYS but may stay gusty at TRI until late tonight. Clouds begin to clear out across the region by late morning or afternoon Monday with VFR conditions prevailing.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 28 50 32 / 0 0 0 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 26 46 29 / 0 0 0 50 Oak Ridge, TN 41 25 46 28 / 0 0 0 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 21 44 28 / 0 10 0 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 330 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
Key Messages:
1. Light snow showers and flurries continue through the early morning hours, especially in the east TN mountains and southwest Virginia. Any accumulations expected to be minor.
2. Cold today with decreasing clouds southwest to northeast. Cold tonight with lighter winds.
3. Warmer Tuesday with increasing clouds.
Discussion:
Regional radar imagery is still showing some light snow showers or flurries moving southeast across southeast Kentucky into southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee south to about the Knoxville Airport. Weak vorticity was showing on short term models especially around 06Z tonight and decreasing by about 12Z this morning. The cold air advection should start to decrease later tonight, with winds slowly lowering late tonight and cloud ceilings beginning to lift as the drier airmass filters into the forecast area. Will keep flurries in the forecast to about sunrise or 12-13Z. Not expecting any significant accumulation but a few lower elevation spots in the northeast part of the forecast area where flurries have lasted longer may get a dusting before the flurries end later this morning. The higher mountains of Virginia and east Tennessee may see an inch or possibly more by daylight.
The main story today will be the return of the sunshine after the low level moisture gets scoured out which should be by mid to late morning in the southeast near Chattanooga and not until early afternoon central valley. The northeast parts may not break out until late afternoon. The time of clearing will affect highs and this will keep higher elevations near freezing but elsewhere they will be about 10 degrees below normal, upper 30s to mid 40s.
The nice cool weather today will not stay long as changes start tonight as clouds increase ahead of the next system developing in the Rockies and spreading into the Plains states overnight. The upper trough behind Sundays cold front will move out during the day today as surface high pressure centered in south central Canada moves southeast into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Another cold night like this morning Monday night. Some moisture spreads into the Ohio Valley early Tuesday which will begin to spread clouds south into Tennessee as well. Think airmass will be too dry for any precipitation. The upper flow will become more zonal Tuesday and temperatures will warm about 5 degrees above today but still below average for mid February.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
Key Messages:
1. Increasing chance for snowfall across most of the area Wednesday into Thursday.
2. Very cold temperatures through Friday, with a weekend warming trend, but still below normal temperatures.
Discussion:
After a nice preview of spring-like weather the past couple of weeks, winter will return in full force this week as a winter storm affects the area on Wednesday and Thursday, accompanied by bitterly cold temperatures through Friday.
At the start of this period, strong high pressure over south-central Canada will extend east across the OH Valley, while a surface low develops near the TX coastline. The low will track east near the Gulf Coast and strengthen as the upper flow becomes more amplified across the Southeast. QG forcing in the jet entrance region will bring precip into our area starting late Tuesday night, ramping up in intensity Wednesday morning. Cold surface air supplied by the strong high will initially be below freezing in most of the area, aided by evaporative cooling and as the column moistens from the top down. Precip begins as snow at onset Tuesday night, but an uncertainty with this system is the potential for low level warming during the day with the increasing sun angle, the inverted surface trough across the TN Valley, and potential downslope warming from southerly winds around 25-30 kt at mountaintop level. Models are not in good agreement in their depictions of the low level temperature profile. The Wednesday morning commute could be impacted as that will likely be the time of greatest snowfall rates, and confidence is higher that most of the precip will be snow early Wednesday morning.
The 850-700 mb trough crosses the area in the afternoon, with a NW flow pattern developing. Cold advection with steepening lapse rates will keep scattered to numerous snow showers going through Wednesday night, with some upslope enhancement in the higher terrain. With decreasing moisture depth, snow showers become more isolated with some flurries Wednesday night, with additional accumulations only in the higher elevations by Thursday morning.
Right now, the expectation is for Advisory-level snow amounts for most of the area (1-3" except less than 1" in the southern tier of counties), with potentially higher amounts in parts of SW VA the mountains. Confidence of snow accumulation is highest in the northern Cumberland Plateau and SW VA, with lower confidence going south. The cold temperatures Wednesday night through Thursday night (highs in the 20s to low 30s, lows in the teens) combined with even a little snow accumulation may make for difficult travel conditions during this period. Thursday's highs in the 20s could be within a few degrees of record low maximum temperatures for the date.
The remainder of the forecast will be dry with a warming trend, although temperatures will still be below normal as most of the eastern US will be under a broad upper trough through the weekend.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
Low clouds continue tonight with MVFR ceilings between 1500 and 2500 ft through about 12Z Monday. Patchy snow flurries are expected but with no reductions in the visibility near TRI overnight and next few hours at TYS. Otherwise, no impacts expected. Winds are subsiding at CHA and TYS but may stay gusty at TRI until late tonight. Clouds begin to clear out across the region by late morning or afternoon Monday with VFR conditions prevailing.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 28 50 32 / 0 0 0 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 26 46 29 / 0 0 0 50 Oak Ridge, TN 41 25 46 28 / 0 0 0 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 21 44 28 / 0 10 0 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Airport Reports
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KTYS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTYS
Wind History Graph: TYS
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of great lakes
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Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,

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