Manns Harbor, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manns Harbor, NC

June 20, 2024 3:54 PM EDT (19:54 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM
Moonrise 6:35 PM   Moonset 3:08 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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AMZ131 Alligator River- 304 Pm Edt Thu Jun 20 2024

Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.

Fri - SE winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon.

Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.

Sat - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.

Sat night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.

Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.

Sun night - SW winds around 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers after midnight.

Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.

Mon night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.

Tue - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves light chop.

Tue night - SE winds around 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 304 Pm Edt Thu Jun 20 2024

Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - SWell from a tropical wave north of the bahamas this afternoon will gradually abate through tonight, with sca conditions coming to an end later tonight. Threat for coastal showers and storms increases through the weekend as coastal trough sharpens offshore. NExt round of sca conditions likely with an approaching cold front early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manns Harbor, NC
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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 201942 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 342 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure continues to extend across the Carolinas with weak coastal troughing in place through tomorrow. This may bring some showers to the region into the weekend. A steady increase in heat and humidity is expected over the next several days with "feels like" temperatures potentially reaching the triple digits on Sunday. The next chance for much needed appreciable rain comes early next week with a frontal passage.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 320 PM Thu...Mid-level ridge remains in place over much of the eastern CONUS this afternoon as expansive Atlantic high pressure continues to ridge over the Carolinas like the past few days. Main difference in the pattern today is a weak tropical wave just north of the Bahamas, which is forecast to drift towards and eventually across the far southeastern coast.
Eastern NC won't feel any direct impacts from this wave, but it will serve as a source for deeper moisture to makes it way into the area into the weekend.

Another dry and cloudless night is on tap for tonight. Given the persistent easterly flow, however, low-level moisture continues to deepen and with a radiational cooling set up some patchy fog is probable in the pre-dawn hours. Best signal for formation is west of Highway 17, but shallow low-impact fog is possible anywhere in well sheltered locations. Lows tonight will be similar to yesterday, in the mid to upper 60s inland and low 70s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
As of 345 PM Thu...Coastal trough will gradually sharpen offshore as aforementioned tropical wave shifts toward coastal GA/FL in the morning. With the deeper moisture advection, the trough will provide a focal point for shower develop and likely a few thunderstorms given ample instability offshore thanks to warm SSTs. Hi-res guidance continues to favor some of this activity penetrating inland, mainly along the Crystal Coast and the Outer Banks from Cape Hatteras south, and maintained mentionable PoPs for these areas from the previous forecast. A second round of convection is possible along the sea breeze in the afternoon. Farther inland, high pressure and subsidence aloft will stubbornly remain in place maintaining hot and dry conditions. Here, highs will climb into the low 90s but dew points will make a run towards the low 60s. Along the coast, highs settle in the upper 80s but dew points will climb well into the upper 60s to potentially 70 along the immediate coast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 315 AM Thursday...

- Still watching the SW Atlantic

- Increased risk of heat impacts late-weekend into next week

- Increased risk of thunderstorms next week

Synoptic Summary: Persistent, and anomalous, ridging aloft over the Eastern U.S. is forecast to finally break down by this weekend, with broad troughing continuing into next week. At the SFC, low pressure is forecast to move across the SW Atlantic and towards the FL/GA coast on Friday, with coastal troughing developing north through the coast of the Carolinas. Broad surface troughing is then forecast to develop across the Eastern U.S. over the weekend, and last into next week. A front, or two, may attempt to make a run at ENC next week.

Saturday-Sunday: High pressure shifting further east out into the Atlantic will allow a warming, and moistening, southerly flow to develop over the weekend. Despite the increasing moisture, it doesn't look like the chance of precip will immediately respond, mainly due to a lack of better instability. At minimum, though, it looks like a few showers or storms may develop on the seabreeze both days. The bigger story over the weekend will be the building heat.
With the southerly flow developing, we'll lose the "cooler" easterly flow of late that has helped keep temps and humidity at more comfortable levels. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show a good signal for heat-related impacts, especially on Sunday, as heat indices ("feels like" temps) reach 100-105 degrees. Sunday could be our first opportunity for heat headlines if recent trends hold.

Monday-Thursday: Humidity will continue to increase next week with a continued southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. With increasing low-level thicknesses, the heat and humidity combination is expected to lead to a continued risk of heat- related impacts. The risk of thunderstorms will be increasing during this time as well, though, which will have a daily impact on where the greatest risk of dangerous heat will be. Bottom line, there continues to be a good signal for multiple days of an elevated to significant heat risk for much of the area.

Regarding the thunderstorm risk, Monday continues to be the day favored for the highest chance, and is also the next appreciable chance of wetting rainfall to help offset the recent stretch of dry weather. Guidance differs on the timing of a couple of fronts that may attempt to move into the area, which of course factors into where the greatest coverage of thunderstorms will be. Also of note, some guidance hint at the remnants of the SW Atlantic wave getting pulled northeast through the area. If this were to occur, this would support an increased risk of precip. Lastly, the shear/instability combo still appears supportive of a marginal severe weather risk on Monday, and that will be something to watch in the coming days.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Friday/...
As of 130 PM Thu...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this afternoon as offshore high continues to extend over the Carolinas for yet another day. Scattered to broken cu field will continue through daytime hours with the probability of any rainfall under 10% this afternoon. Main focus turns to tonight, primarily along the coastal plain, where clear skies, calm winds, and increasing low-level moisture provide a favorable set up for some patchy fog early Fri AM. Introduced MVFR cigs at PGV and ISO for this risk.

Moving into Friday, increasing clouds and moisture from the south as weak tropical wave/low, currently just north of the Bahamas, migrates across the far southeastern coast tomorrow morning. The increase in moisture will feed an uptick in offshore showers and a few thunderstorms, which could drift along the immediate coast tomorrow morning. Afternoon sea breeze circulation could also spark convection in the early afternoon.
Signal right now keeps any MVFR cigs from penetrating more than a few miles inland, but can see a low-end risk for EWN/OAJ if moisture intrudes farther than forecast.

As of 7 AM Thursday...VFR conditions persist. Some 35kft ceilings are still scattered across the CWA but will lift soon and make way for diurnal cu this afternoon. A better fog setup will be in place tonight given an increase in moisture, clear skies, and decoupling winds. Confidence was not high enough to include mention of fog in the TAFs at this time, but the best chance would be across western terminals (PGV, ISO, and OAJ).

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...

- Increased risk of TSRA and sub-VFR conditions Monday

A developing coastal trough may support low CIGs and SHRA/TSRA along the immediate coast Friday. This will be followed by isolated SHRA and TSRA developing each day along the seabreeze over the weekend. A better chance of TSRA and sub-VFR conditions is still expected Monday. A period of breeze southwesterly winds is expected Sunday into Monday as well, with non-TSRA gusts of 20-25kt possible.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 345 PM Thu...Swell from a weak tropical wave just north of the Bahamas this afternoon continues to encroach into our offshore waters, mainly south of Cape Hatteras, where seas have climbed to around 5-6 feet (with a few 7 foot observations across far Onslow Bay). High pressure remains in control with another day of easterly flow around 10-15 kt. The tropical wave is forecast to drift inland near the FL/GA border tomorrow morning, and this afternoon's swell will gradually abate through the evening. SCAs remain for the waters south of Ocracoke Inlet, but all others were dropped this cycle with waves reaching only 4 to 5 feet.

Another benign day of boating conditions returns tomorrow, with winds gradually veering more southerly through the day as the surface high finally begins to move further offshore. Winds will generally be no higher than 10 kt and seas will be able to return back to around 4 feet, except 3 feet closer to shore.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...

- Elevated wind and seas Monday

- Increased thunderstorm risk on Monday

Elevated seas from today will begin to slow lay down on Friday as the persistent easterly flow of late begins to subside. Weaker flow continues into Saturday, with south winds of 5-15kt common. That southerly flow will notably increase to 15-25kt Sunday into Monday, with a subsequent increase in seas to 4-6 ft once again. Sunday and Monday will present the next chance of SCA conditions. Coastal troughing developing on Friday now appears more supportive of scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially for the waters south of Cape Hatteras. This risk then subsides over the weekend some, before increasing again as we move into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER
As of 4 AM Thur...Minimum RHs will reach 35-40% this afternoon (primarily away from the coast). Given the continued dry airmass, dry fuels, and E'rly breezes, these conditions remain noteworthy for any ongoing, or planned, fires.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ156- 158.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 19 mi54 minE 8G8.9 80°F 30.35
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 21 mi58 min 76°F3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 26 mi54 minENE 8G11 79°F 81°F30.37
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 28 mi54 min 77°F 77°F3 ft
44086 30 mi58 min 78°F4 ft
44095 38 mi28 min 77°F4 ft
41082 45 mi174 minENE 7.8 77°F 30.37


Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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Wind History graph: MQI
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Tide / Current for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
   
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
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Thu -- 12:59 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:45 AM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:39 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:05 PM EDT     3.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
0.5
1
am
0.3
2
am
0.5
3
am
1
4
am
1.7
5
am
2.4
6
am
2.8
7
am
2.9
8
am
2.6
9
am
2.1
10
am
1.4
11
am
0.8
12
pm
0.4
1
pm
0.3
2
pm
0.6
3
pm
1.3
4
pm
2.2
5
pm
3
6
pm
3.6
7
pm
3.8
8
pm
3.7
9
pm
3.2
10
pm
2.4
11
pm
1.5


Tide / Current for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
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Thu -- 01:05 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:46 AM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:40 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:11 PM EDT     3.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
0.4
1
am
0.2
2
am
0.4
3
am
0.8
4
am
1.4
5
am
2.1
6
am
2.5
7
am
2.6
8
am
2.4
9
am
2
10
am
1.4
11
am
0.7
12
pm
0.3
1
pm
0.2
2
pm
0.5
3
pm
1.1
4
pm
2
5
pm
2.9
6
pm
3.6
7
pm
3.9
8
pm
3.8
9
pm
3.3
10
pm
2.6
11
pm
1.6


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