Tuesday, July7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manns Harbor, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:27PM Tuesday July 7, 2020 8:06 PM EDT (00:06 UTC) Moonrise 9:36PMMoonset 7:09AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manns Harbor, NC
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location: 35.98, -75.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 071941 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 341 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. An area of low pressure will move slowly from Georgia into the Carolinas through Thursday and will linger near the coast into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. As of 330 PM Tuesday . Mostly light to moderate showers continue across the southern and western CWA, with only widely scattered showers along the Outer Banks. Latest HRRR and 3km NAM did not initialize particular well on the current rainfall and will just follow mostly trends in radar/satellite for the near term. While a lull in the precipitation is likely during the evening and into the early overnight hours, expect showers/storms to reinvigorate offshore and move toward coast toward daybreak Wednesday morning. With precipitable water approaching 2 inches and minimal wind in the mid-levels, some heavy downpours are likely with a quick inch or two possible, producing brief flooding of low-lying areas. Lows tonight will be in the low/mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. As of 330 PM Tuesday . The surface low will linger along the South Carolina coast on Wednesday as a weak 500 mb low become closed over the Carolinas during the day. Deep feed of moisture with precipitable water over 2 inches, will lead to periods of heavy rain and most of eastern NC is in a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall from WPC. PoPs in the likely to categorical range for Wednesday with the highest values and biggest QPF closer to the coast. With cloud cover and precipitation, high temperatures for Wednesday will be limited to about 82 to 85 degrees.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 310 PM Tuesday . Low pressure will move slowly northeast along or just off the coastal Carolinas Wednesday Night through Friday resulting in unsettled weather for late week. An upper trough and surface cold front will cross the area late Saturday with showers and thunderstorms again possible this weekend.

Wednesday Night through Friday . Surface low is forecast to move slowly over or just off the Carolinas Wednesday Night trough Friday. Guidance is in better agreement through Thursday, with considerable divergence by Friday on the timing of departure with the surface low lifting northeast of the area. The circulation around this area of low pressure will draw deeper moisture north into the area and enhance coverage/intensity of showers and thunderstorms especially during peak heating. Trended PoPs to slightly higher for this period given better agreement, with storm total QPF through Thursday night ranging 1-2 inches inland to 2.5-3.5 inches along the immediate coast. Temps should be near normal, with the potential for some below normal max temps for days with more extensive cloud cover and precip.

The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring this low for development, and currently places the chance of tropical cyclone formation at 40 percent (medium) once it re-emerges over the Atlantic off or just along the SC/NC coast.

Saturday and Sunday . The low pressure area should lift northeast away from the area by late Friday into early Saturday. A broad eastern CONUS trough will develop with a strong shortwave and cold front moving through the area late Saturday into Saturday night. These features will result in slightly above normal temps in southwesterly flow, with showers/thunderstorms possible with the weak front Saturday evening/night, and again Sunday mainly due to diurnally driven convection.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Short Term /through 18Z Wednesday/ . As of 1230 Pm Tuesday . VFR conditions currently at TAF sites, but rain coverage is quickly increasing, especially near KOAJ, KISO and KEWN and expect periods of MVFR ceilings in showers through the afternoon, a brief IFR is likely in heavier downpours and scattered thunderstorms. Some improvement is possible for a few hours late this evening and into the early overnight hours, but a return to MVFR is likely Wednesday morning in steadier showers and a few scattered thunderstorms.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/ . As of 330 PM Tuesday . As a slow moving area of low pressure moves into the area, expect more widespread sub-VFR conditions through the long term as the area of low pressure tracks through or just off the Eastern NC coast. Guidance diverges beyond Thursday, with duration of sub-VFR conditions dependent on track of surface low which looks to lift northeast of the region sometime late Thursday into Friday.

MARINE. Short Term /Tonight and Wednesday/ . As of 340 PM Tuesday . Winds have increased a bit this afternoon in relation to other days, running SE at 10-15 knots in most areas. Seas are at 2-3 feet. S/SE winds are expected tonight into Wednesday at 10-15 knots with seas continuing at 2-3 feet.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/ . As of 3 PM Tuesday . Winds shift to more easterly by late Wed and eventually northeasterly by Thurs morning. Seas build to 2-4 ft Wed night then 3-5 ft Thurs through Friday. May see Small Craft Advisories Thursday night through Friday for the central coastal waters where seas could build to 4-6 ft in response to the low pressure crossing the ENC waters. All other waters appear to peak at 3-5 ft during the later portions of the forecast.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to become be widespread Wednesday Night through Friday which could impact marine safety.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . CTC SHORT TERM . CTC LONG TERM . DAG AVIATION . DAG/CTC MARINE . DAG/CTC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 19 mi49 min SE 11 G 12 1016.2 hPa
FRFN7 19 mi127 min 2 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 21 mi41 min 79°F2 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 26 mi49 min ESE 6 G 8.9
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 28 mi41 min 81°F2 ft
44086 30 mi54 min 83°F2 ft
44095 38 mi41 min 82°F2 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC15 mi72 minSSW 910.00 miFair82°F71°F70%1016.9 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC17 mi72 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F69°F67%1016.6 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC22 mi73 minS 410.00 miFair84°F75°F74%1016.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMQI

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW12SW10SW9SW8SW6SW7W5W6CalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE6E7S5SE9S10S10
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1 day agoS3S6SE3SE3SW6SW6SW4SW6SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4SW8S9S10S10S9S10
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2 days agoE9E5E3E4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmE5E5E7E8E7E5SE7S4SE4

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:51 AM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:48 AM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:48 PM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:07 PM EDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.50.60-0.10.20.91.72.53.13.22.92.31.50.70.200.311.92.83.43.73.5

Tide / Current Tables for FRF Pier, Duck, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.