Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manns Harbor, NC

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:22PM Thursday July 18, 2019 11:31 PM EDT (03:31 UTC) Moonrise 8:45PMMoonset 6:26AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manns Harbor, NC
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location: 35.98, -75.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 190154
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
954 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
The area will remain between subtropical high pressure offshore
and a weak troughing inland through early next week. A front
will approach and stall near the area by the middle of next
week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
As of 950 pm thurs... A few complexes of strong thunderstorms
continue to move east and into the coastal plain at this hour.

Most high res models keep convection ongoing for the next few
hours, and then dissipate precip quickly around midnight. Then,
expect just some offshore thunderstorms, though couldn't rule
out a shower along the immediate coast. Very warm temps will
continue overnight with lows expected in the upper 70s to low
80s.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday
As of 330 pm thurs... More of the same pattern with sfc high
pressure well offshore and inland trough, while heights aloft
gradually build back in. The main story for tomorrow will be the
heat and humidity... Will issue a heat advisory for the area,
with heat indices reaching 105 to 110 degrees. Expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop mainly along the sea
breeze as the atmosphere becomes quite unstable. Expect highs
in the mid to upper 90s inland and upper 80s to low 90's along
the beaches.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
As of 305 pm Thursday... The long term period will be
characterized by mainly zonal upper level flow across the
northern CONUS with the southern u.S. Stuck under a broad ridge
through the end of the week. By the beginning of next week, a
deepening low over the gulf of alaska will help promote a more
amplified pattern across the CONUS with strong ridging over the
west and a deepening trough over the east. The resultant impacts
to eastern nc weather is a typical summer surface pattern into
early next week with high pressure over the western atlantic and
a trough of low pressure inland. By the end of the period, the
more pronounced upper troughing will help push a front into the
region and increase precip coverage.

Saturday and Sunday... Continued hot and very humid for the weekend
with similar temperatures both days. Thicknesses increase
with 850 mb temps reaching 20+ c across eastern nc. As the upper
level trough begins to amplify to the west. Heights will fall
some Sunday, but temperatures will be very similar. Expect highs
over the weekend to average in the mid to upper 90s. Dew points
remain high and heat indices will range 105 to 110. Scattered
convection is possible along the sea breeze each day but with
the ridge firmly in control coverage will be limited. Capping
pops at 30% for the period.

Monday thru wed... A break in the heat is finally in sight as
the upper level trough amplifies, dropping heights across the
region and helping to usher a front south across the mid-
atlantic and into the carolinas by mid-week. While there are
still model differences regarding timing and progression of the
front Tuesday into Wednesday, guidance agreement has increased
and have increased pops to likely for Tuesday into Tuesday
night, with likelies continuing along the coast for Wednesday.

The front will be accompanied with deep moisture and a
pronounced mid-level shortwave. It should be noted the front is
expected to stall with plenty of moisture (pwats of 2+ inches)
and multiple subtle lobes of mid-level vorticity riding along
the boundary. Thus some respectable rainfall totals are
possible, although the question of where the front stalls
remains unanswered. Behind the front highs will struggle to
crack 90, and fall even further by the middle of the week.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
Short term through tomorrow evening ...

as of 730 pm thurs...VFR conditions are expected through the taf
period. Some scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening
across the coastal plain, but then the area will be mostly dry
overnight. Scattered thunderstorms will again develop by
tomorrow afternoon, with brief periods of sub-vfr conditions
possible.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday ...

as of 250 pm Thursday... Typical summertime pattern this period
with high pressure offshore and a trough of low pressure inland,
with mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms Saturday and
Sunday. As ridge shifts farther offshore on Monday may see an
uptick in convection. A cold front will approach from the
northwest late Monday, helping to focus showers thunderstorms
along it as it crosses into eastern nc through Tuesday. Patchy
fog or stratus will be possible early each morning, especially
any areas that receive rain.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 330 pm thu... The latest buoy obs are showing SW winds
15-20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots and seas are 2-3 north of
oregon inlet and 4-5 ft south. Expect southwesterly winds to
continue with wind gusts reaching up to 30 kt late this evening.

A small craft advisory remains in effect for the coastal waters
and sounds south of oregon inlet, with the potential for
occasional winds to 25 kt across the croatan and roanoke sounds
through late afternoon, but the duration too short to justify
inclusion in the sca. The SW gusty winds will gradually diminish
overnight, but SW 15-20 knot will continue through Friday. Seas
will gradually build to 4 to 6 ft tonight, and subside Friday
morning to 3-5 ft.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday ...

as of 255 pm Thursday... The pressure gradient will relax some
Friday night through Sunday with winds dropping to 10 to 20 kts
and seas 3 to 5 ft. A cold front will approach from the
northwest late Monday into Monday night, increasing the pressure
gradient across the waters with SW winds increase again to 15
to 25 kt Monday with seas 4-6 ft, highest for the central
coastal waters. The front shifts closer to eastern nc waters on
Tuesday, shifting the strongest gradient farther offshore,
allowing SW winds to diminish 10-20 kt and seas mostly 3-4 ft.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Heat advisory from 11 am to 7 pm edt Friday for ncz029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Friday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Friday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Sgk
short term... Bm
long term... Dag ms
aviation... Dag sgk
marine... Dag bm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 19 mi43 min SW 17 G 20
FRFN7 19 mi91 min 1 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 26 mi49 min SSW 21 G 25 84°F 86°F1014.8 hPa
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 28 mi31 min 80°F3 ft
44086 30 mi36 min 76°F3 ft
44095 38 mi45 min 82°F4 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC15 mi51 minSW 1210.00 miFair82°F76°F85%1014.6 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC17 mi51 minSW 710.00 miFair82°F75°F80%1014.2 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC22 mi37 minSSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds79°F73°F82%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW8SW7SW10SW8SW9SW8SW6SW7SW7SW8SW8SW7SW9SW8S8S12
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2 days agoCalmCalmSE3CalmSE3CalmS4SW7SW4SW5SW5S4S8S9S13
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SW6SW6SW6S4SW9SW8SW9

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
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Thu -- 03:17 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:12 AM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:11 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:27 PM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.10.50.10.20.71.52.32.93.232.61.91.10.50.20.40.91.72.53.23.63.63.2

Tide / Current Tables for FRF Pier, Duck, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.