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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

AMZ100 929 Am Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. Unsettled pattern then continues through much of the weekend and into early next week as a series of low pressure systems impact the area. High pressure will build in mid to late next week.

FXUS62 KMHX 021423 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 923 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
An unsettled pattern continues through much of the weekend and into early next week as a series of low pressure systems impact the area. High pressure will build in mid to late next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 920 AM Sat...An area of low pressure now over the northern Gulf will track toward Tennessee by late today. Ahead of this low, a southwest flow of air will produce a mild and occasionally moist flow our area. The mild weather will prevail across eastern NC for the weekend. Looks like most of the precipitation over the next 36 hours will occur overnight tonight into early Sunday morning. The best chance for measurable precipitation today will be through early afternoon north of the Pamlico/Tar rivers as the initial batch of rain moves through. Otherwise, spotty light showers are expected this afternoon across eastern NC. These showers may become more numerous across the souther coastal plain towards evening. Low clouds will dissipate early this afternoon most locations but will linger near the sounds and waters north of Hatteras where cooler water temps are contributing to areas of locally dense fog which could linger into Sunday. Highs will range from the upper 60s coast, to the low to mid 70s inland.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/
As of 430 AM Sat...As the low mentioned above moves into southwest VA by Sunday morning, we see a slight increase in forcing which will lead to our best chance for showers overnight. With mild temps in the 60s, areas of patchy dense fog are again possible especially inland.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 4 AM Saturday...

Sunday...As the mid-level ridge over the ECONUS builds and the trough over the Midwest deepens, the gradient will tighten and bring an uptick in winds. The surface low associated with this trough will drag a cold front across ENC late Sunday into Monday and bring Chance to Likely PoPs with the chance for some offshore thunderstorms. The forecast has trended slightly drier over the past 24 hours with Sunday's daytime QPF down to approx. 0.1". Temps have trended up with highs in the low to mid 70s across the coastal plain (upper 60s beaches).

Monday - Tuesday...Another mid-level trough will sweep across the Midwest on Monday causing another cold front to traverse ENC overnight into Tuesday. This front looks fairly dry with the only impacts on sensible weather being cooler temps and an uptick in winds. Highs Monday will be in the mid 60s and at or just below 60 on Tuesday across the FA.

Wednesday...Not to sound like a broken record, but another mid-level trough will dig into the SECONUS early Wednesday. This system's cold front may support some showers along the OBX, but its passage will be felt more in terms of increased winds over the water and cooler overnight temps at or just below freezing across the coastal plain (beaches remain near 40).

Thursday - Friday...High pressure sets in behind Wednesday's FROPA and begins a warming trend through the end of the week and into the weekend (low 50s Thursday, near 60 Friday).

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through This Evening/...
As of 700 AM Sat...An extended period of sub-VFR conditions are expected through at least midday today. After a brief period of VFR this afternoon and early evening, a return to sub-VFR conditions is likely again tonight into Sunday morning.

Varying conditions across the terminals now with LIFR and airport minimums at our inland terminals, but highly variable conditions closer to the coast. A slow improvement is expected toward late morning, but IFR cigs may hold tough especially at KISO and KPGV through at least mid morning before a slow, slow improvement to MVFR this afternoon. Best chance for VFR will be at KOAJ and KEWN.

With a moist conditions lingering through tonight, sub VFR conditions return all terminals after 06Z.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions are possible Sunday due to vicinity showers. Fog is possible each morning, but conditions should be pred VFR through the rest of the period.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 920 AM Sat...Dense marine fog has developed over the sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras as the warm moist airmass travels across the cooler waters. This fog could persist into Sunday morning. The flow across the waters will remain SW/S through Sunday. For the most part, winds are less than 15 kt across the waters, the exception being over the outer southern and central waters in a region of warmer SST's where the flow is 15-20 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt. This stronger flow has resulted in higher 5-6 ft seas and the need to extend the SCA into mid afternoon. In addition A Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued to account for the current and expected areas of sea fog across the sounds and coastal waters.

The gradient over the waters tonight will remain tight enough for southwest winds to approach 20 kts, especially over the outer waters toward the Gulf Stream with elevated waves of 4 to 5 feet. Nearshore and over the sounds, and cooler water, wind speeds will be much lower.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...

Sunday-Tuesday...Sunday will present the next SCA conditions for waters south of Cape Hatteras. SW winds 10-15 kt increase to 15-20 kt through the day. Expect 25 kt gusts by Sunday afternoon and 3-5 ft seas building to 4-6 (some 7 footers south of Ocracoke Inlet). Conditions drop below SCA criteria around midnight Monday. Waters north of Cape Hatteras will see SW winds 10-20 kt with gusts near 25 kt and 3-5 ft seas. SCA conditions for the waters south of Oregon Inlet return Monday night into Tuesday (NW winds 15-20 kt and gusts 25+ kt, 3-5 ft seas).
Conditions improve during the day Tuesday and winds will back from NW to SW (10-15 kt).

Wednesday...SCA conditions return with the strongest gusts of the period Wednesday afternoon/evening (NW 15-25 kt with 30+ kt gusts). Seas will build from 2-3 ft Wednesday morning to 3-5 ft by Wednesday night.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ131- 135-150-152-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152- 154-156-158.

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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
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Sat -- 04:11 AM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:34 AM EST     3.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:30 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:10 PM EST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:02 PM EST     2.69 feet High Tide
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