Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manns Harbor, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 7:47PM Friday August 23, 2019 3:31 PM EDT (19:31 UTC) Moonrise 11:25PMMoonset 12:49PM Illumination 43% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manns Harbor, NC
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location: 35.98, -75.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 231803
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
203 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will approach the area later today and tonight and
slowly cross the region Saturday. The front will stall off the coast
Sunday with low pressure moving along it Monday. Another cold front
will approach the area late next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1005 am Friday... 12z mhx sounding this morning shows an
already unstable airmass in place with mlcapes of around 1600
j kg and very little if any cin. Further evidence of this
instability is seen on satellite and radar as a few showers and
storms have built along old outflow boundaries from yesterday's
convection. Nudged morning pops up to account for the isolated
shower storm threat, otherwise previous thinking looks good and
made little other changes this update.

As of 640 am Friday... At daybreak, a warm and humid SW flow
continues over eastern nc as a cold front is currently working
its way south across northern portion of WV into va. Per the
latest high-resolution hrrr, 3km NAM and arw, think the bulk of
today will be quiet with only isolated convection as the main
forcing occurs along the cold front later this evening. High
temperatures will range from 88 to 91 degrees in most areas,
except mid 80s over the outer banks.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
As of 350 am Friday... Active night upcoming as cold front works
its way south from virginia and slowly across eastern nc
through the night. Ahead of the front, there appears to be a
sufficient (25-30 knots) amount of shear to lead to a threat of
a few strong to severe thunderstorms mainly during the late
afternoon into early evening hours. The northern zones are in a
slight risk of severe weather for tonight with strong gusty
winds being the main threat. Of a bit more concern will be the
threat of heavy rainfall, as a similar area is in the slight
risk of excessive rainfall. Given over 2 inches of precipitable
water and the slow-moving nature of the front, localized
flooding will be possible. Have likely to categorical pops over
the northern tier working into the central CWA overnight, with
lower chances near the coast as the precipitation takes a bit to
reach the southern zones. With rain-cooled air, lows will be a
bit cooler than recent night, mainly low to mid 70s.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
As of 345 am fri... A slow moving cold front pushes through the
forecast area Saturday, then more unsettled weather to continue
into early next week. Another cold front will approach the area
from the west by midweek.

Saturday... A cold front will slowly push through enc on Saturday,
ans be offshore by Sat night. As the front pushes south, a
weak shallow high pressure wedge builds in... Leading to cooler and
stable air, but thunder may be embedded near the coast.

Generally, expect widespread rain as pw values are above 2.00"
and deep warm cloud layer with the best convergence near the
frontal zone. Some embedded heavier convective cells would
produce a flood threat during especially the afternoon hours,
especially considering the copious amounts of rain we have seen
this past week.

Sunday through Monday... Model disagreements continue with the 23 00z
suite when it comes to the development of a possible tropical
system. The 00z ECMWF continues to be the most aggressive with the
development of a tropical system over the SE waters and lifting ne,
but staying well off the nc coast Sunday night into Monday. If
this occurs, the system would bring some coastal impacts,
mainly in the form of heavy rain, and gusty winds. There is some
concern of additional rainfall ahead of the possible system as
the stalled front offshore can interacts with overrunning mid
level (h85-70 mb) tropical flow out of the south. The low would
pass NE of the nc coast on Monday, keeping rain and breezy
conditions in the forecast for coastal locales. Now, the GFS cmc
models have it area of low pressure less developed, but would
still move NE and remain off the coast. Either way, the forecast
looks quite unsettled with periods of rain with some flood
threat through Monday. Temps will be held down this period due
to the clouds and rain, with highs generally around 80, and lows
mid 60s to near 70.

Tuesday through Thursday... High pressure should build back in tue
with more drier conditions, then an approaching cold front by
midweek resulting in showers and thunderstorms. Expect highs to
climb back towards climo, in the mid upr 80s. Lows continue in the
60s interior to low 70s coast.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
Short term through Saturday 18z ... As
as of 140 pm Friday... High res models show scattered convection
starting after 21z with more organized storms moving in
overnight with the front, especially in the northern sites.

Models are becoming more confident with ceilings dropping behind
the front to MVFR after midnight and then to ifr after 09z for
all sites. MVFR conditions should return after 15z, but more
widespread shra is expected towards the end of the TAF period.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday ...

as of 345 am fri... A slow moving cold front will push through enc
Saturday... Producing scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms... Leading to periods of MVFR to ifr conditions. The
frontal boundary will remain close to the nc coast and continue
bring unsettled weather Sunday and possibly into Monday as low
pressure brings additional rain and low clouds. Flying conditions
are expected to improve Tuesday back toVFR.

Marine
Short term today and tonight ...

as of 640 am Friday... Winds continue SW at 15-20 knots over the
pamlico sound and northern waters at daybreak with 10-15 knot
winds elsewhere. Seas persisting at 2-4 feet. Per latest local
swan nwps model, seas will increase a bit to 3-5 feet today
into tonight ahead of a slow-moving cold front. Winds should
remain SW 10-20 knots through the period with a veering to nw
behind the front toward early Saturday morning over the far
northern marine zones.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday ...

as of 345 am fri... A cold front will gradually push through the
coastal waters Saturday and remain just south of the area through
early next week. Winds will weaken as the front pushes through
(except for the northern wtrs) and become N NE 5-15 behind it. Seas
will generally be 2-4 ft. Wind gradient will tighten gradually
Sunday as a low pressure system organizes to the south, and high
pressure wedges in to our west. NE winds 10-20 knots with higher
gusts late Sunday through Monday. Winds are expected to gradually
diminish as the low departs to the ne. Seas will build 4-6 ft and
continue through Monday, and then gradually subside 3-5 ft Tuesday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Ms
short term... Ctc
long term... Bm
aviation... Bm ml
marine... Ctc bm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 19 mi44 min WSW 8.9 G 11 87°F 60°F1014 hPa
FRFN7 19 mi92 min 2 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 21 mi32 min 77°F1 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 26 mi50 min S 21 G 24 83°F 85°F1015 hPa
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 28 mi32 min 82°F2 ft
44086 30 mi37 min 71°F3 ft
44095 38 mi46 min 76°F3 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC15 mi57 minSSW 13 G 1810.00 miOvercast88°F75°F66%1014.9 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC17 mi52 minSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy90°F72°F58%1014.2 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC22 mi2.6 hrsSSW 1110.00 miFair89°F75°F65%1015 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMQI

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10SE8SW18SW17
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SW11SW10N4--SW11--SW11SW13SW9W9W8SW9W9
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1 day agoSW20
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SW13--SW15SW10SW11W10W7----W11W8
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2 days agoS9NW4
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--W4SW7SW7Calm----------------W7SW7--SW8SW10W13SW14
G17
S12S17
G24

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:52 AM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:58 AM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:25 PM EDT     3.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:03 PM EDT     1.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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33.12.92.51.91.30.90.80.91.42.12.83.33.63.63.32.72.11.61.211.11.52

Tide / Current Tables for FRF Pier, Duck, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.