Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Ridge, TN
April 21, 2025 7:57 AM EDT (11:57 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:54 AM Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 2:22 AM Moonset 12:23 PM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Ridge, TN
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS64 KMRX 211132 AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 732 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025
Key Messages:
1. Showers and thunderstorms move through later today and tonight. A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible mainly this afternoon/early evening.
Discussion:
The upper ridge over our region will be flattening out in response to an upper low traversing the Great Lakes region today, and a weak surface cold front will be approaching from the west today and will move into our area tonight. The front will be losing steam as it moves in, and will likely be nearly stationary near our south and east borders by the end of tonight. The better jet dynamics with this system will stay to our north and west, but models continue to show modest instability especially south this afternoon/early evening, with MLCAPES peaking near 500 J/kg central and perhaps as high as 700-800 J/kg south. The deep layer shear of 30 to 40 kts is is mostly due to speed. The chance for severe storms is low, but a few strong to marginally severe storms could bring strong gusty winds this afternoon/early evening especially south.
The showers and perhaps a few storms will linger through much of the night tonight as the front slowly moves across our area, although northwestern portions of the area will likely begin to dry out later in the night behind the front.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025
Key Messages:
1. Warm temperatures continue this week with chances for showers and storms each day through Saturday.
Discussion:
No significant changes from yesterday's afternoon package. Quasi- zonal flow will be the headline feature this week, with small perturbations in the flow providing the necessary lift to spark scattered showers and thunderstorms every day, though some days may be drier than others. Of the perturbations modeled, there's a couple more obvious ones. The first is the front, or what's left of it, on Tuesday, with moisture still being brought northward into East Tennessee. There's weak upper level divergence present on Tuesday along with more saturated sounding profiles, with precipitation depictions indicating the better chances for rain showers, and a couple thunderstorms, is in the southeastern and eastern portions of East Tennessee into North Carolina.
The other obvious perturbation is the shortwave that both the GFS and Euro are in fairly good agreement on for Thursday. Given the agreement we may see more widespread showers and storms on Thursday with that system, and the NBM's depiction of likely rain is good, low chance of a couple thunderstorms depending on when exactly it swings through.
Hazard wise with this week is most likely lightning for anyone who has plans to be outside. It's conceivable we get a strong storm or two if enough daytime heating takes place before storms fire on any given day, especially in the late afternoon and early evening timeframe but for now no significant severe concerns are present.
Rain wise there's no immediate notable concerns, between the scattered nature of the showers and storms this week and the fact that flash flood guidance is fairly high right now across the area, we can take a couple inches of rain before concerns pop up. This week is by no means a wash out, but a good time to learn cloud types and when to come inside.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025
Will start the period with VFR conditions all sites. Showers and a few thunderstorms will move in mid/late afternoon, with the best chance for thunder at CHA and TYS. Will include prob30 groups for thunder at both CHA and TYS around the time of highest probability, and a prob30 group at TRI for a heavier shower. Will include MVFR conditions in the prob30 groups, then trend toward MVFR cigs/vsby for the last several hours all sites. Winds will become gusty from the southwest during the day, but will diminish in the evening.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 63 76 60 / 70 70 80 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 61 74 58 / 70 70 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 79 61 75 58 / 80 70 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 58 73 56 / 60 70 50 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 732 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025
Key Messages:
1. Showers and thunderstorms move through later today and tonight. A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible mainly this afternoon/early evening.
Discussion:
The upper ridge over our region will be flattening out in response to an upper low traversing the Great Lakes region today, and a weak surface cold front will be approaching from the west today and will move into our area tonight. The front will be losing steam as it moves in, and will likely be nearly stationary near our south and east borders by the end of tonight. The better jet dynamics with this system will stay to our north and west, but models continue to show modest instability especially south this afternoon/early evening, with MLCAPES peaking near 500 J/kg central and perhaps as high as 700-800 J/kg south. The deep layer shear of 30 to 40 kts is is mostly due to speed. The chance for severe storms is low, but a few strong to marginally severe storms could bring strong gusty winds this afternoon/early evening especially south.
The showers and perhaps a few storms will linger through much of the night tonight as the front slowly moves across our area, although northwestern portions of the area will likely begin to dry out later in the night behind the front.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025
Key Messages:
1. Warm temperatures continue this week with chances for showers and storms each day through Saturday.
Discussion:
No significant changes from yesterday's afternoon package. Quasi- zonal flow will be the headline feature this week, with small perturbations in the flow providing the necessary lift to spark scattered showers and thunderstorms every day, though some days may be drier than others. Of the perturbations modeled, there's a couple more obvious ones. The first is the front, or what's left of it, on Tuesday, with moisture still being brought northward into East Tennessee. There's weak upper level divergence present on Tuesday along with more saturated sounding profiles, with precipitation depictions indicating the better chances for rain showers, and a couple thunderstorms, is in the southeastern and eastern portions of East Tennessee into North Carolina.
The other obvious perturbation is the shortwave that both the GFS and Euro are in fairly good agreement on for Thursday. Given the agreement we may see more widespread showers and storms on Thursday with that system, and the NBM's depiction of likely rain is good, low chance of a couple thunderstorms depending on when exactly it swings through.
Hazard wise with this week is most likely lightning for anyone who has plans to be outside. It's conceivable we get a strong storm or two if enough daytime heating takes place before storms fire on any given day, especially in the late afternoon and early evening timeframe but for now no significant severe concerns are present.
Rain wise there's no immediate notable concerns, between the scattered nature of the showers and storms this week and the fact that flash flood guidance is fairly high right now across the area, we can take a couple inches of rain before concerns pop up. This week is by no means a wash out, but a good time to learn cloud types and when to come inside.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025
Will start the period with VFR conditions all sites. Showers and a few thunderstorms will move in mid/late afternoon, with the best chance for thunder at CHA and TYS. Will include prob30 groups for thunder at both CHA and TYS around the time of highest probability, and a prob30 group at TRI for a heavier shower. Will include MVFR conditions in the prob30 groups, then trend toward MVFR cigs/vsby for the last several hours all sites. Winds will become gusty from the southwest during the day, but will diminish in the evening.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 63 76 60 / 70 70 80 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 61 74 58 / 70 70 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 79 61 75 58 / 80 70 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 58 73 56 / 60 70 50 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KTYS MC GHEE TYSON,TN | 20 sm | 4 min | SSW 11 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 68°F | 55°F | 64% | 30.11 | |
| KDKX KNOXVILLE DOWNTOWN ISLAND,TN | 21 sm | 42 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 59°F | 59°F | 100% | 30.11 | |
| KJAU COLONEL TOMMY C STINER AIRFIELD,TN | 23 sm | 47 min | S 11G17 | 9 sm | Clear | 70°F | 55°F | 60% | 30.13 | |
| KRKW ROCKWOOD MUNI,TN | 24 sm | 42 min | SSW 08G15 | 10 sm | Clear | 63°F | 57°F | 83% | 30.12 |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KOQT
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KOQT
Wind History Graph: OQT
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of great lakes
Edit Hide
Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE