Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Ridge, TN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 117 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

As anticipated and forecasted by the models, a weakening and dying MCS is currently entering the forecast area from KY. Lightning activity has greatly fallen off before it reached our CWA border. We do not anticipate severe storms, but a minor gust of wind cannot be ruled out. Middlesboro, KY just after 12:30 gusted to almost 30 mph.
Decent CAPE, DCAPE, and EBShear are present for this time of night; 2500 J/Kg, and almost 40 KT Effective.

Later this morning into the afternoon and possibly early evening hours, still holds fairly low confidence on evolution of activity today in regards to, strength, timing, location, and hazards besides damaging wind gusts. Timing for the frontal passage itself will be between 2 and 8 pm ET. The latest HRRR depicts another round of showers and storms will barrel down from the Ohio Valley region around sunrise and after. A few samplings of forecast soundings over southwest VA show strong to severe storm capability, with increasing vertical shear. There may be parts of the forecast area, in particular, southwest VA, that may see repeated rounds of precipitation from this morning into the afternoon, which raises the concern for flooding from training storms. QPF totals vary from the HRRR to the RRFS, though the RRFS tries to bring chances a bit further south, meanwhile, the HRRR keeps activity restricted to the northeastern sector of the CWA In all, the instability will surely be there (will it be impacted by morning activity?), moisture is surely present, and forcing coming from the front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms for much of the day with some strong to severe capability. The main hazard still remains damaging wind gusts, with isolated flash flooding from heavy rainfall and possible training. Smaller than 1 inch hail could be possible, as well as well as a tornado, given the increase in shear and SRH later today.

Before getting into the rest of the forecast period, which won't be much to touch on at all, it will be hot and humid again later today.
Southwest VA into northeast TN may escape the hottest conditions, as well as the Southern Appalachians, but that goes without saying.
Upper 90s to mid 100s for heat indices today from the central valley south to the GA border (southern valley).

Tomorrow into the first weekend of August will see temperatures dropping to just below normal and for the most part, holding steady as lower heights from the western side of the trough sink south.
Humidity will also trend lower into Thursday before a trend upward begins Friday. Surprisingly enough, once we clear things out of here late tonight, dry weather will most likely persist into early Saturday before precipitation chances creep back in. Surface high pressure at that time, begins to be replaced by another shortwave lobe and a system possibly moving in from the NW.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Isolated showers will move through near the KTRI airport this morning with minimal categorical impacts. More robust convection will likely move through late this morning into the afternoon.
Convection will be scattered enough that there is low confidence on specific timing of impacts at the airport, but strongest storms could have gusty winds and heavy downpours briefly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 73 90 67 / 20 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 71 87 64 / 60 30 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 93 69 87 64 / 50 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 66 82 59 / 90 30 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.