Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Ridge, TN

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Key Messages:

1. Scattered showers and embedded storms will remain possible the rest of today and again Monday, especially during the afternoon.

Discussion:

Currently, a weakening upper trough will across the central and southern Appalachians this afternoon. Abundant moisture and marginal instability is producing widespread scattered showers and embedded thunder north of interstate 40. More sunshine is evident south of interstate 40 and convergence into the Plateau will likely be the focus for more robust convection later this afternoon.

The overview storm motion is west to east will allow the storms over the Plateau to move across the central valley. Given PWS of 1.7 to 1.9 inches, marginal 850mb moisture transport, and west to east storm motion, some locally heavy rainfall/localized flooding issues are possible due to training of cells.

Severe threat is very limited. Shear is very limited and MLCAPES of 1500 J/Kg. There is some DCAPE around 600-800 along and south of Knoxville that could produce some strong/gusty winds of 40-45 mph. Limited CAPE is in the hail growth zone, limited shear, and high freezing levels are not conducive to hail.

Coverage and strength of convection will decrease soon after sunset but widely scattered to scattered showers will remain.

Besides the convection, abundant low-level moisture will produce areas of low-clouds and fog overnight.

For Monday, upper trough moves east but heights remain low with another upper trough approaching. Expect around round of scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Key Messages:

1. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms for Tuesday.
2. Frontal boundary will move across the area Thursday with a line of showers and storms. Isolated severe storms possible with the main concerns being damaging winds and localized flooding.
3. Drier and warmer conditions for Friday into the next weekend.

Discussion:

For Tuesday and Wednesday...Ensemble cluster analysis remain surprisingly similar in keeping weak troughing into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. The relatively low heights and continued moist and unstable airmass will produce daily convection. Greatest coverage and intensity during the afternoon and evening hours. The same story with the main concern being locally heavyfall, runoff issues, and strong and gusty winds. NAEFS keeps PWS from 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal.

For Wednesday night and Thursday, an upper trough will move across the Great Lakes and Ohio valley. Associated frontal boundary will drag south into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys during the afternoon and evening hours. Boundary layer flow out the west will increase to 30-35 knots allowing the expected line of showers and thunderstorms to be a little more organized.

Marginal instability with CAPES of 1500-2000 and mid-level lapse rates of 6.5 combined with the increased winds for isolated strong to possibly severe storms. Main concern will be damaging winds.
A moist airmass with PWS of 1.8-1.9 inches will also produce heavy rains with potential of localized flooding.

For Friday into the next weekend, trough moves east and frontal boundary moves south of the area. Upper ridging strengthens over the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. Chances of afternoon/evening storms will decrease as heights increase, and coverage mainly across the terrain features. Drier and warmer conditions are anticipated. Heat indices may approach 100 degrees by Sunday afternoon and surface dewpoints increase.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

MVFR ceilings are expected over the next couple of hours at CHA and TYS with MVFR fog already confirmed at TRI. Reductions to IFR for fog are anticipated at TRI with lesser chances of visibilities below 6 miles at the other two sites. Conditions should improve again by late morning to early afternoon, but the main question will be the timing and evolution of convection through the day.
The latest data suggests there to be activity early in the afternoon with less activity by the evening. Just like yesterday, coverage will be better around TYS and TRI. At this time, VCTS was left in the TAFs, but a storm could move over the terminal and lead to reductions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 86 72 88 / 70 90 40 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 84 70 88 / 60 90 40 60 Oak Ridge, TN 69 83 70 87 / 60 90 40 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 84 67 86 / 50 90 40 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.