Oak Ridge, TN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Ridge, TN

June 22, 2024 8:11 AM EDT (12:11 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 8:58 PM
Moonrise 9:09 PM   Moonset 5:29 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Ridge, TN
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Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN
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FXUS64 KMRX 221116 AAA AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 716 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Key Messages:

1. Still hot.

2. Some showers over the plateau and mountains today. Coverage will be limited though.

Discussion:

Upper ridging will largely remain in control of the weather across the southeast during the short term, though it will weaken and shift slightly westward in response to a weak wave moving through the central plains and upper midwest.

As expected, afternoon cumulus was more prevalent yesterday than the day before and a few isolated showers were even able to develop yesterday afternoon. With the ridge further weakening today, expect the upward trend in cloud cover and shower activity to continue today. Some of the CAM guidance shows very high PoPs (upwards of 60 percent) over the higher terrain of the plateau and Appalachians.
While I have high confidence that showers will develop, coverage is less certain I think. There's no forcing mechanism other than daytime heating, and For that reason, I think that capping rain chances at 20-25 percent will suffice.

Otherwise, not much to talk about. Afternoon temps will be warm once again, with low 90s forecast. Any showers that develop this afternoon should dissipate within a few hours of sunset.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Key Messages:

1. Chances of showers and storms return to the area.

2. Continued above normal temperatures.

At the beginning of this period on Sunday morning, we will be transitioning out of the pure upper ridge regime as it relocates to the west and we will be entering a more active upper northwest flow.
And it doesn't take long for the first shortwave to move through the area bringing much needed showers and storms Sunday night.

Along with this shortwave will be a very weak cold front that will bring slightly drier air into the area Monday and into Tuesday, but then the winds return to the south and bring in more moisture and another round of showers and storms ahead of the next slightly stronger cold front in the Wednesday through Thursday timeframe.

Between these two systems Monday night through Tuesday night look dry. And then after the second system, things should be drying out during the day Thursday and through Friday. In general, the first system looks like it will only offer up to about a 1/4 inch, with the second system offering some areas up to about 1/2 inch. We'll get what we can take.

For severe threats on Sunday, the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk clips our NW counties. This seems reasonable, given that the terrain could get things started there ahead of when the main line of storms comes into the area. Also, with a northwest flow, storms that develop in more favorable areas to the northwest will move fairly quickly toward our NW corner. However, it does look like the greater threats are northwest of our area, and that the bulk of the showers and storms will move in Sunday evening and overnight when the airmass has started to stabilize somewhat. The storm threats will be outflow/downburst winds. The flooding threat looks minimal since it has been dry and the storms will be progressing steadily with little chances of training, and as mentioned before, precip amounts are expected to remain light overall.

Looking ahead to the severe threats for the Wednesday/Thursday event, this system is a little better organized than the Sunday system, so it bears watching as that system approaches, but as usual this time of year, the timing of the storms can make a big difference--storms near max heating being stronger than storms overnight.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

ISOLD to SCT SHRA and perhaps even a few TSRA should develop over the Appalachians and the Cumberland plateau areas this afternoon.
Do not expect these to be INVOF any terminals, so will stick with light and variable winds and SCT060 bases to account for expected CU field.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 73 96 75 / 10 0 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 72 93 72 / 10 10 10 60 Oak Ridge, TN 92 72 93 71 / 10 10 10 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 69 90 70 / 10 10 10 70

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KTYS MC GHEE TYSON,TN 20 sm18 mincalm10 smPartly Cloudy75°F68°F78%30.16
KDKX KNOXVILLE DOWNTOWN ISLAND,TN 21 sm21 mincalm10 smMostly Cloudy70°F70°F100%30.16
KJAU COLONEL TOMMY C STINER AIRFIELD,TN 23 sm21 mincalm10 smMostly Cloudy72°F70°F94%30.20
KRKW ROCKWOOD MUNI,TN 24 sm16 mincalm10 smPartly Cloudy70°F68°F94%30.19
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Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,




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