Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Ridge, TN

Version 3.4 		NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen
Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 5:24PM Saturday December 7, 2019 3:34 AM EST (08:34 UTC) Moonrise 2:56PMMoonset 2:54AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Ridge, TN
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location: 36.01, -84.26     debug

Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN
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FXUS64 KMRX 070820 AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 320 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight). Fairly zonal pattern aloft with dry conditions in the wake of the weak system that moved through yesterday. Surface high will not visit long, and moves off to the east tonight, opening the door to a moistening southerly flow beginning by sunrise Sunday. Mild temperatures today will be above normal as cloud cover presently over much of the area slowly erodes.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday). Models remain in decent agreement on the progression of the overall pattern through the long term period. A southward moving trough in California on Sunday will continue to dive southeast into far west Texas by Monday afternoon and evening, before shifting east across the central Gulf states and Tennessee Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning as it becomes part of a synoptic scale trough that carves out a home across the central and eastern US during that Tue/Wed time frame.

Surface low pressure develops quickly over the southern plains on Sunday in responses to the southern stream California trough shifting southeast to west Texas. This surface low will then trek northeast through missouri and finally up into Michigan Sunday night into Monday. Locally, Sunday will be dry with highs in the low to mid 50s and increasing clouds. As low pressure strengthens in the plains and shifts to the midwest, a warm front will develop and move north towards the forecast area from the south. Ahead of the warm front, H85 winds ramp up to about 30-40kt. There is some degree of downslope component to these winds, but even the more aggressive NAM shows the low level winds veering around to the southwest rather quickly. Thus, do not expect to see much of a mountain wave setup Sunday and Monday. Isentropic ascent over the region will likely produce some light rain Sunday night into Monday morning. Higher resolution guidance suggests this will be mostly tied to the mountainous terrain and perhaps the northern plateau areas. This doesn't seem unreasonable given model soundings showing a significant amount of dry air in the mid levels and more robust moisture capped at about 6000 ft aloft. Suspect that once the forecast area is firmly entrenched in the developing warm sector of this storm (mid Mon morning), that rain chances will take a marked downturn and Monday might wind up being mostly dry. Still, at this time there's enough support in keeping PoPs going through the day Monday so have some chance PoPs in there to account for this. Strong warm advection on Monday and relatively strong mixing will push temperatures up into the 60s in many locations.

Rain chances ramp back up Monday evening and Monday night as the cold front begins to approach from the west. Have categorical PoPs for much over the overnight hours Monday night and into Tuesday morning. Due to strong warm advection continuing Monday night, and a mid/late morning cold front passage forecast for Tuesday, went with a non-diurnal temperature forecast for Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures Monday night will likely hold steady in the mid to upper 50s before falling through the late morning and afternoon hours on Tuesday. The question is exactly how quickly will those temperatures fall, and when will there be a transition to snow on the backside of the front Tue afternoon and Tue night. Currently the GFS is quicker/cooler, with the ECMWF running about 10-12 degrees warmer for most places Tuesday evening. They're relatively close late Tuesday night, but by that time precipitation will be rapidly coming to an end. The forecast will reflect a middle ground approach, which will show a rain/snow mix for a few hours before transitioning to all snow Tue evening and Tue night, with all precipitation ending by daybreak Wed morning. With favorable right entrance region jet dynamics lingering overhead well into Tuesday night, it is conceivable that some light snow accumulations could be seen. Where and what exactly those accumulations will be remains to be seen at this point.

Dry, but cool, conditions will round out the period. Another potentially significant system could be on tap for next weekend, but uncertainty high at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 43 54 47 / 0 0 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 38 57 46 / 0 0 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 57 38 54 45 / 0 0 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 32 51 41 / 0 0 0 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. TN . None. VA . None.



GC/CD

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oak Ridge, TN2 mi41 minN 010.00 miOvercast44°F39°F85%1024.6 hPa
Knoxville, McGhee Tyson Airport, TN20 mi41 minN 010.00 miOvercast46°F37°F71%1023.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOQT

Wind History from OQT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS34CalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW3W33SW4Calm3355W7SW8SW74W7SW3SW3S3CalmSW3SW3W3CalmCalmCalm
Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Morristown, TN (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.