Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Ridge, TN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 8:57PM Saturday July 11, 2020 12:58 PM EDT (16:58 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 11:38AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Ridge, TN
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location: 36.01, -84.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN
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FXUS64 KMRX 111124 AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Morristown TN 724 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

UPDATE. FOR 12Z AVIATION.

SHORT TERM. (Today and Tonight)

Key Messages:

1. Less humid today and tonight, but only slightly cooler.

Discussion:

Rest of the overnight .

The cold front has moved SE of the area with dew points falling into the mid 60's, and even some low 60's in SW VA. NW winds of 5-10 kts behind the front will continue to advect drier air into the region through early this morning with leftover clouds along the eastern mountains dissipating shortly after sunrise as the drier air wins out. Raised lows a bit early this morning since hourly temps have not been falling as fast as previously thought.

Today .

Broad mid/upper troughing will cover the eastern CONUS today downstream of a massive 600 DM ridge over the Desert SW. At the surface, the cold front will progress toward the Gulf coast this morning with western portions of the front trailing back to weak low pressure moving across KS while high pressure moves into the TN Valley from the west. This all means fair weather for today, with the NW flow at the surface and aloft leading to lower humidity and slightly cooler temps. NBM highs were too warm, so used the slightly cooler CONSSHORT which gives mid/upper 80's, except low to mid 80's across far NE TN and SW VA. This is not significantly cooler weather, but the lower Td's will make it feel much better. Surface heating beneath the cooler air aloft will yield 600-800 J/Kg MUCAPE, and several weak H5 vort maxes are progged to drop through the region. However, strong 850-700 mb capping and additional low-level subsidence from the surface high building in will prevent convection with just some afternoon cumulus, especially in the higher terrain of the plateau and eastern mountains.

Tonight .

A vigorous N stream H5 shortwave and associated surface cold front will drop through the broader longwave trough late tonight reaching the vicinity of IL/IN/KY. This will cause the old front to the S and W to begin lifting back NE as a warm front as the surface high shifts quickly E across the Appalachians. Light northerly flow the first half of the night will turn southerly by sunrise with moisture beginning to increase. High level clouds will increase after 09Z, but most areas will stay dry except for a few showers that could reach the N Plateau between 09 and 12Z where slight chance PoPs were brought in. Went about a degree warmer than NBM for lows based on the increasing clouds and light southerly flow late, which yields lows in the 65-70 degree range.

RG

LONG TERM. (Sunday through Friday)

Model agreement is decent overall, but some differences especially late in the period. Forecast confidence is still slightly above average for this time of year. Sunday and Sunday night a mid/upper level short wave will affect the region and a weak cold front will push into our areas as well. Models soundings show differences, with disagreement on how much convective energy will be available Sunday. However, do expect convection to affect the area by Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, and given the upper support and 0-6km shear approaching or exceeding 25kt, a few strong to severe storms will be possible so will keep this mention in the HWO. Models disagree on how much moisture will linger into Monday, so for now will keep slight chance PoPs going for some convection over all but our southwest counties.

The broad ridge of high pressure will build into our area Tuesday and Wednesday, and linger through the end of the period. Tuesday and Wednesday should be dry and hot. Enough moistening may occur by Thursday/Friday, and some models show a slight flattening of the ridge as short wave energy moves by to our north as well, to require the inclusion of some afternoon convection in the forecast for both days. Afternoon high temperatures in the valleys will reach into at least the low to mid 90s for the mid to latter part of the work week.

LW

AVIATION. 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Fog that occurred at TRI a few hours ago has dissipated, so VFR will prevail at all sites through the day with light NW to W winds of 5-10 knots. CHA and TYS will remain VFR tonight, but fog may form at TRI between 08 and 12Z. Drier air will be in place compared to the past night, so fog development is low confidence. Added MVFR vis at the end of the TAF as an early estimate.

RG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 70 91 71 91 / 0 0 40 40 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 69 89 70 88 / 0 0 40 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 88 69 89 68 89 / 0 10 50 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 65 87 66 85 / 0 0 50 50 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . NONE. TN . NONE. VA . NONE.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oak Ridge, TN2 mi66 minVar 410.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F61°F46%1013.4 hPa
Knoxville, McGhee Tyson Airport, TN20 mi66 minWNW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F59°F43%1013 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOQT

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Last 24hrS5Calm5W7W9
G15
566W44N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW33W344
1 day agoCalmCalmCalm33E7SE6W74Calm3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6--4Calm
2 days ago--CalmCalmW6W434CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Morristown, TN (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.