Wednesday, April8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Ridge, TN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 8:06PM Wednesday April 8, 2020 7:23 AM EDT (11:23 UTC) Moonrise 8:00PMMoonset 6:50AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Ridge, TN
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location: 36.01, -84.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN
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FXUS64 KMRX 080735 AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Morristown TN 335 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

SHORT TERM. (Today and Tonight) . The upper pattern this morning is highlighted by split flow with broad/flat ridging anchored in the southern stream across the southeast CONUS, while the northern stream remains rather zonal, for now. At the surface, a series of boundaries exist across the OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes region, with anticyclonic flow dominating over the Deep South. Currently across East TN and southwest VA/NC, llv moisture advection is underway amidst modest wly/swly llv flow which is supporting increasing low stratus, and even some weak shower activity moving in out of the Plateau associated with a subtle H5 impulse.

Moving into/through Wednesday, conditions across the TN Valley will improve as the day progresses with the aforementioned low clouds scting out to favor low cu and ample heating amongst sustained sly/swly moisture advection. With that, did keep pops mentionable albeit low during peak heating as iso/sct convection is possible once convective temps are reached (highs in the 70s to low 80s), with low confidence in placement. Meanwhile the synoptic pattern really starts to amplify as a fast moving H5 wave/trough dives out of Canada across the Northern Rockies into the Plains, resulting in surface cyclogenesis across MO/IL. This deepening surface low will propel a fast moving cold front into a very moist/unstable warm sector over the OH Valley late Monday evening with ample convection to accompany. This frontal convection will then race across the Plateau, through the Great Valley, and into the Southern Appalachians around sunrise Thursday.

Profiles in the warm sector across East TN are fairly impressive ahead of the convection (despite the timing) with very steep lapse rates amidst deep dry air and unidirectional/strong sheer. As for hazards, nothing is off the table as large hail and damaging winds are certainly the primary threats, but an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out as some embedded rotations are likely. Instability does look to wain closer to daybreak as the line of convection moves east, mainly just on diurnal trends, therefore would expect some gradual weakening closer to the NC line. All said, SPC has upgraded areas generally west of I75 to an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms, which is where instability/shear are maximized, while the remainder of the area is essentially favored in the Slight Risk Category. As for timing specifics, the CAMs seem to be in fairly good agreement with only one slower outlier. Typically these fronts outperform as far as speed/timing thus leaned away from the slower outlier thereby favoring a fast fropa between midnight and 5-6AM eastern time.

CDG

LONG TERM. (Thursday through Tuesday Night) . On Thursday, the upper lvl shortwave will have transitioned into a deep low across the Great Lakes with strong jet dynamics across the Ohio valley. At the surface, an area of low pressure will be located well north of the area with a trailing cold front through the Appalachians. At the start of the period on Thursday, we may be dealing with the tail end of strong to severe thunderstorms along the cold front. Hi-res CAMS suggest much if not all of this activity to be out of the area by 12Z however a lot can change over the next 24 hours regarding how quick this activity gets through the area. For more information on the kinematic and thermodynamic environment ahead of this line please refer to the short term segment of this AFD. Otherwise, winds quickly turn toward the northwest behind the front advecting a much drier and cooler airmass into the Tennessee valley. Highs on Thursday should reach the mid to upper 60s.

Cyclonic flow will still dominate the region on Friday with strong northwest flow in place aloft. High pressure at the surface will quickly filter in underneath the descending branch of the trough. Continued dry and cooler weather conditions are anticipated on Friday and Saturday with increasing heights aloft and high pressure at the surface. Temperatures both days will be much cooler with highs in the 50s to 60s. Saturday and into Sunday, a northern branch shortwave will quickly eject south into the northern plains while a southern stream begins to phase over the southern plains. Still some model difference regarding the timing of phasing as well as where the resulting surface low will track. This will greatly determine any strong/severe potential into the late weekend and early next week. Do not want to get caught up in to many details at this point as a lot can change. What is more confident is that the shortwave embedded within deep cyclonic flow across the plains will traverse the Tennessee and Ohio valley late Sunday night into Monday. Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany this wave. Temperatures will moderate as low lvl winds turn toward the south ahead of this wave.

Tuesday into Wednesday confidence is low regarding how quick the front can kick out. As a result will likely keep low end PoPs for Tuesday and Tuesday night to account for this. Looking ahead to Wednesday, another shot of cooler and drier weather should accompany the departing front.

AD

AVIATION. 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A mixture of VFR/MVFR and possibly IFR during this taf cycle. Llv moisture continues to increase this morning which will foster intrusion of low stratus by daybreak from the west at all sites. Expecting mostly MVFR cigs with this stratus layer, however guidance indicates possible further lowering to IFR at TYS/TRI, confidence being highest at TRI. Also cannot rule out some iso shra at all sites, thus included VCSH for such through sunrise. Otherwise, low VFR cu to highlight the day, perhaps with heating induced shra/tsra at TRI. Winds will remain swly in the 6-10kts range with gusts in the 20-25kts range this afternoon.

CDG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 61 69 44 60 / 20 80 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 59 66 41 56 / 20 80 20 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 79 58 66 40 57 / 20 80 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 55 64 37 53 / 30 90 30 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . NONE. TN . NONE. VA . NONE.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oak Ridge, TN2 mi30 minN 010.00 miOvercast62°F55°F80%1010.1 hPa
Knoxville, McGhee Tyson Airport, TN20 mi30 minSW 710.00 miOvercast63°F57°F81%1009.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOQT

Wind History from OQT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalm5--4CalmW9
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SW5SW7SW7SW66S644SW3CalmSW3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalm--W4S4453NW53NE5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4S6S5533CalmCalmCalm5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Morristown, TN (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.