Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kill Devil Hills, NC
December 7, 2023 2:18 PM EST (19:18 UTC)
Sunrise 7:01AM Sunset 4:51PM Moonrise 1:33AM Moonset 1:34PM
AMZ231 Croatan And Roanoke Sounds- 1202 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
This afternoon..W winds around 10 kt, becoming sw late. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop late.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves choppy.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming sw 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Waves choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon and evening, then increasing to very rough after midnight. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers. A chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Waves rough, diminishing to a moderate chop.
This afternoon..W winds around 10 kt, becoming sw late. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop late.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves choppy.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming sw 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Waves choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon and evening, then increasing to very rough after midnight. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers. A chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Waves rough, diminishing to a moderate chop.
AMZ200 1243 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure over the southeast will shift farther off the coast tonight into the weekend. Hazardous conditions are expected with a cold front on Sunday with improving conditions Monday.
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure over the southeast will shift farther off the coast tonight into the weekend. Hazardous conditions are expected with a cold front on Sunday with improving conditions Monday.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KMHX 071903 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 203 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
Cool high pressure builds into the area today with a warming trend to follow into the weekend. A strong cold front will cross the region late Sunday bringing strong southerly winds and increased chances of showers and thunderstorms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 145 PM Thursday...Upper ridging currently centered over the Mississippi River Valley will push eastward tonight with a subtle shortwave sliding sewd across the region. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure centered over the Southeast will slide off the coast tonight with lee troughing developing across the western piedmont. The shortwave will have very little influence of sensible weather across ENC other than to tighten the pressure gradients some, which will mostly be felt along the coast as light to moderate sw winds. Clear skies will allow for good radiational cooling across inland areas and expect temps to fall fairly quickly after sunset this evening. Low tonight expected in the low to mid 30s inland to low to mid 40s along the coast.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
As of 145 PM Thursday...The upper ridge axis becomes centered across the Eastern seaboard Friday with sfc high pressure offshore. A dry airmass remains across the region although will see high clouds passing overhead that will bring filtered sunshine throughout most of the day. light SW winds allow for warming temps and expect highs near seasonable norms in the lower 60s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 330 AM Thursday...
KEY MESSAGES
1) Strong cold front to bring the potential of multiple hazards Sunday/Sunday night
2) Above normal temperatures over the weekend
3) Below normal temperatures next week
FORECAST DETAILS
A potent shortwave will move ashore along the Pacific NW today, dive southeast into the Southern Plains by late Saturday, then lift northeast across the Southeast US/Mid-Atlantic region late Sunday into Monday. Medium range ensemble guidance have backed off a bit on the strength of the wave as it moves through the Eastern US, but it still appears likely that it will take on a negative tilt as it moves through, the strength of which is still noteworthy. At the surface, high pressure will shift offshore on Friday, with a stout return/southerly flow developing over the weekend. A cold front will then march east across the Carolinas Sunday night.
What's most impressive with this system is the kinematics. A strong 50-60kt southerly LLJ is forecast to develop on the warm side of the system, with some guidance forecasting an impressive 60-70kt within the jet. With widespread clouds and showers, heating will be strongly WAA-driven, and mixing should be on the shallow side. Even so, there should be enough mixing into the lower reaches of the LLJ, allowing a fairly widespread area of 30-40 mph winds at times prior to the passage of the cold front, especially Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Where mixing and the pressure gradient are maximized, gusts of 45+ mph will be possible. Probabilistic guidance gives a 50-60% chance of those higher gusts being reached (highest probs along the coast), and a Wind Advisory may be needed for a portion of the area.
The strong kinematics with this system will also support anomalously strong moisture transport into the region ahead of the front, with PWATs peaking as high as 1.25-1.50". The strong moisture transport will be important for both the rainfall potential and any severe weather potential. Rainfall-wise, guidance differs on where the axis of heaviest rainfall will be, but there's a pretty good signal for 1- 2" of rain given the strong lift overlapping with anomalous moisture. It's been fairly dry over the past week across Eastern NC, and we should be able to handle these rainfall amounts. However, where rainfall rates are the highest, typically flood-prone and urban areas could see some minor hydro issues.
Regarding the convective potential, the strengthening southerly flow will help advect 60s dewpoints into the area, but with warmer temps aloft and weak lapse rates, instability may only top out in the 250- 500 J/kg range. Strong deep layer shear will be present, setting up a conditional high shear/low CAPE severe weather risk. Given the strength of forcing, it's possible that a narrow band, or two, of thunderstorms will develop ahead of the advancing front, capable of pockets of enhanced wind potential. Keep in mind, with the strong winds aloft, even weak convection could help mix down some stronger gusts at the surface. As is often the case this time of year, the main limiting factor will be weak instability. Stay tuned as we continue to assess this potential.
Once the front clears the area, a drier and colder airmass is forecast to settle into the region next week. Temperatures will drop back below normal (similar to the past couple of days).
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...High pressure will remain in control through the short term with pred VFR conditions prevailing. Wly winds around 5-10 mph this afternoon backs to SW late today through Friday
LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...
Conditions will then begin to trend more impactful for aviation over the weekend as a strong cold front moves through. Ahead of the front, sub-VFR CIGs may develop as early as Saturday, becoming increasingly likely on Sunday. Widespread SHRA and scattered TSRA are expected along the front, with IFR conditions possible. Gusty southerly winds will develop Saturday night and last through Sunday evening, before becoming northerly Sunday night. Southerly gusts of 25-35kt are likely during this time, peaking Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 2 PM Thursday...High pressure centered across the Southeast will push off the coast tonight with a trough developing across the western piedmont. Current obs showing W to NW winds around 5-10 kt with seas around 3-5 ft northern and central waters and 2-4 ft southern waters. Winds will back to WSW late today as the sfc high slides offshore. Will see some tightening of the pressure gradients tonight as a weak midlevel shortwave moves across the area with WSW winds increasing to 10-20 kt. Wly winds diminish to around 10-15 kt Friday with seas subsiding to 2-3 ft across most waters by the afternoon though up to 4 ft may continue across the outer central waters.
LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...
KEY MESSAGES
1) Hazardous marine conditions expected Saturday night into Monday
FORECAST DETAILS
High pressure overhead on Saturday will lead to light winds (5-10kt) and good boating conditions. Seas will be 2-3 ft.
Conditions will begin to deteriorate Saturday night as a cold front approaches from the west. This will lead to a strengthening southerly wind and building seas. The worst boating conditions are expected later Sunday into Sunday night as the cold front moves east across the area. The front will be accompanied by a period of gale- force winds over the coastal waters, including the Pamlico Sound, and strong SCA-level winds over the remaining inland rivers and sounds. Over the warmest coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras, model guidance and pattern recognition suggests occasional gusts to storm-force will be possible (40-60% chance). Elsewhere, a solid period of 25-35kt southerly winds can be expected as the front moves through. Seas will respond to the strong southerly flow, and will build to 7-13 ft offshore (5-8 ft close to shore). Inland rivers and sounds will be very choppy to rough. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will accompany the front, and will lead to areas of enhanced wind gusts. Behind the front, gusty northwesterly winds will lay down to 15-25kt, and seas will eventually follow suite.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 203 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
Cool high pressure builds into the area today with a warming trend to follow into the weekend. A strong cold front will cross the region late Sunday bringing strong southerly winds and increased chances of showers and thunderstorms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 145 PM Thursday...Upper ridging currently centered over the Mississippi River Valley will push eastward tonight with a subtle shortwave sliding sewd across the region. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure centered over the Southeast will slide off the coast tonight with lee troughing developing across the western piedmont. The shortwave will have very little influence of sensible weather across ENC other than to tighten the pressure gradients some, which will mostly be felt along the coast as light to moderate sw winds. Clear skies will allow for good radiational cooling across inland areas and expect temps to fall fairly quickly after sunset this evening. Low tonight expected in the low to mid 30s inland to low to mid 40s along the coast.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
As of 145 PM Thursday...The upper ridge axis becomes centered across the Eastern seaboard Friday with sfc high pressure offshore. A dry airmass remains across the region although will see high clouds passing overhead that will bring filtered sunshine throughout most of the day. light SW winds allow for warming temps and expect highs near seasonable norms in the lower 60s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 330 AM Thursday...
KEY MESSAGES
1) Strong cold front to bring the potential of multiple hazards Sunday/Sunday night
2) Above normal temperatures over the weekend
3) Below normal temperatures next week
FORECAST DETAILS
A potent shortwave will move ashore along the Pacific NW today, dive southeast into the Southern Plains by late Saturday, then lift northeast across the Southeast US/Mid-Atlantic region late Sunday into Monday. Medium range ensemble guidance have backed off a bit on the strength of the wave as it moves through the Eastern US, but it still appears likely that it will take on a negative tilt as it moves through, the strength of which is still noteworthy. At the surface, high pressure will shift offshore on Friday, with a stout return/southerly flow developing over the weekend. A cold front will then march east across the Carolinas Sunday night.
What's most impressive with this system is the kinematics. A strong 50-60kt southerly LLJ is forecast to develop on the warm side of the system, with some guidance forecasting an impressive 60-70kt within the jet. With widespread clouds and showers, heating will be strongly WAA-driven, and mixing should be on the shallow side. Even so, there should be enough mixing into the lower reaches of the LLJ, allowing a fairly widespread area of 30-40 mph winds at times prior to the passage of the cold front, especially Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Where mixing and the pressure gradient are maximized, gusts of 45+ mph will be possible. Probabilistic guidance gives a 50-60% chance of those higher gusts being reached (highest probs along the coast), and a Wind Advisory may be needed for a portion of the area.
The strong kinematics with this system will also support anomalously strong moisture transport into the region ahead of the front, with PWATs peaking as high as 1.25-1.50". The strong moisture transport will be important for both the rainfall potential and any severe weather potential. Rainfall-wise, guidance differs on where the axis of heaviest rainfall will be, but there's a pretty good signal for 1- 2" of rain given the strong lift overlapping with anomalous moisture. It's been fairly dry over the past week across Eastern NC, and we should be able to handle these rainfall amounts. However, where rainfall rates are the highest, typically flood-prone and urban areas could see some minor hydro issues.
Regarding the convective potential, the strengthening southerly flow will help advect 60s dewpoints into the area, but with warmer temps aloft and weak lapse rates, instability may only top out in the 250- 500 J/kg range. Strong deep layer shear will be present, setting up a conditional high shear/low CAPE severe weather risk. Given the strength of forcing, it's possible that a narrow band, or two, of thunderstorms will develop ahead of the advancing front, capable of pockets of enhanced wind potential. Keep in mind, with the strong winds aloft, even weak convection could help mix down some stronger gusts at the surface. As is often the case this time of year, the main limiting factor will be weak instability. Stay tuned as we continue to assess this potential.
Once the front clears the area, a drier and colder airmass is forecast to settle into the region next week. Temperatures will drop back below normal (similar to the past couple of days).
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...High pressure will remain in control through the short term with pred VFR conditions prevailing. Wly winds around 5-10 mph this afternoon backs to SW late today through Friday
LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...
Conditions will then begin to trend more impactful for aviation over the weekend as a strong cold front moves through. Ahead of the front, sub-VFR CIGs may develop as early as Saturday, becoming increasingly likely on Sunday. Widespread SHRA and scattered TSRA are expected along the front, with IFR conditions possible. Gusty southerly winds will develop Saturday night and last through Sunday evening, before becoming northerly Sunday night. Southerly gusts of 25-35kt are likely during this time, peaking Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 2 PM Thursday...High pressure centered across the Southeast will push off the coast tonight with a trough developing across the western piedmont. Current obs showing W to NW winds around 5-10 kt with seas around 3-5 ft northern and central waters and 2-4 ft southern waters. Winds will back to WSW late today as the sfc high slides offshore. Will see some tightening of the pressure gradients tonight as a weak midlevel shortwave moves across the area with WSW winds increasing to 10-20 kt. Wly winds diminish to around 10-15 kt Friday with seas subsiding to 2-3 ft across most waters by the afternoon though up to 4 ft may continue across the outer central waters.
LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...
KEY MESSAGES
1) Hazardous marine conditions expected Saturday night into Monday
FORECAST DETAILS
High pressure overhead on Saturday will lead to light winds (5-10kt) and good boating conditions. Seas will be 2-3 ft.
Conditions will begin to deteriorate Saturday night as a cold front approaches from the west. This will lead to a strengthening southerly wind and building seas. The worst boating conditions are expected later Sunday into Sunday night as the cold front moves east across the area. The front will be accompanied by a period of gale- force winds over the coastal waters, including the Pamlico Sound, and strong SCA-level winds over the remaining inland rivers and sounds. Over the warmest coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras, model guidance and pattern recognition suggests occasional gusts to storm-force will be possible (40-60% chance). Elsewhere, a solid period of 25-35kt southerly winds can be expected as the front moves through. Seas will respond to the strong southerly flow, and will build to 7-13 ft offshore (5-8 ft close to shore). Inland rivers and sounds will be very choppy to rough. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will accompany the front, and will lead to areas of enhanced wind gusts. Behind the front, gusty northwesterly winds will lay down to 15-25kt, and seas will eventually follow suite.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 | 11 mi | 48 min | WSW 8G | 45°F | 53°F | 30.13 | ||
| 44056 - Duck FRF, NC | 12 mi | 52 min | 54°F | 4 ft | ||||
| 44086 | 15 mi | 52 min | 57°F | 5 ft | ||||
| 44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) | 18 mi | 48 min | 47°F | 56°F | 5 ft | |||
| ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC | 18 mi | 48 min | NNW 6G | 46°F | 51°F | 30.18 | ||
| 44095 | 27 mi | 52 min | 57°F | 5 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFFA FIRST FLIGHT,NC | 2 sm | 8 min | no data | 10 sm | Clear | 45°F | 27°F | 49% | 30.12 | |
| KMQI DARE COUNTY RGNL,NC | 7 sm | 8 min | NW 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 46°F | 25°F | 42% | 30.14 |
Wind History from FFA
(wind in knots)Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:32 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 02:34 AM EST 2.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:00 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 08:53 AM EST 0.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:34 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 02:43 PM EST 2.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 08:58 PM EST 0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:32 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 02:34 AM EST 2.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:00 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 08:53 AM EST 0.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:34 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 02:43 PM EST 2.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 08:58 PM EST 0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.1 |
| 1 am |
| 2.6 |
| 2 am |
| 2.9 |
| 3 am |
| 3 |
| 4 am |
| 2.7 |
| 5 am |
| 2.3 |
| 6 am |
| 1.7 |
| 7 am |
| 1.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 1 |
Jennetts Pier (ocean)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:31 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 02:30 AM EST 3.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 08:52 AM EST 0.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:33 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 02:39 PM EST 2.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 08:57 PM EST 0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:31 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 02:30 AM EST 3.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 08:52 AM EST 0.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:33 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 02:39 PM EST 2.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 08:57 PM EST 0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.2 |
| 1 am |
| 2.7 |
| 2 am |
| 3 |
| 3 am |
| 3 |
| 4 am |
| 2.7 |
| 5 am |
| 2.3 |
| 6 am |
| 1.7 |
| 7 am |
| 1.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0.8 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 1.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.1 |
Wakefield, VA,
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