Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kill Devil Hills, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 230 AM Saturday...

Key Messages

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with heavy rain again today

Regional radar early this morning shows scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing from GA/SC northeast through ENC. This activity appears to be associated with two separate shortwaves (one moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, and the other moving through SC).

It looks like the SC wave will continue to progress NE early this morning, and move across central/eastern NC from mid- morning through mid-afternoon today. The wave may come through a bit before the typical diurnal maximum in afternoon instability. That said, given the very moist airmass in place, it won't take much heating to support moderate destabilization just ahead of the arrival of the wave. Low-mid level temps are forecast to be a touch warmer today compared to yesterday, and this may limit the coverage some today compared to yesterday.
However, the added lift from the wave in tandem with the seabreeze should support another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Weak deep layer shear should keep the risk of severe weather at a minimum, but water-loaded downdrafts capable of strong, gusty winds will be possible. Of note, as the wave moves through today, there may be just enough of a boost with winds aloft to support an area of 20-25kt of deep layer shear north of HWY 264.
This area looks to have the best chance at thunderstorm organization, with a locally "higher" risk of strong wind gusts.
Additionally, the slight enhancement to shear in the area may allow deeper convection to be sustained a bit longer than the rest of ENC, supporting the potential for higher rainfall totals. For the area at large, anomalous PWATs of 2"+ will combine with a deep warm cloud layer and slow storm motions, supporting a risk of intense rainfall rates. A Flood Watch was contemplated for portions of ENC, especially where the heaviest rainfall totals occurred yesterday, but there is some uncertainty regarding where the heaviest rainfall totals will be. Because of this, we'll hold off on a watch with this forecast, but continue to evaluate the potential in later updates.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 230 AM Saturday...

In the wake of today's shortwave, guidance is in generally good agreement showing an area of low-mid level drying overspreading ENC this evening and tonight. Should this be realized, there may be a relative minimum in shower and thunderstorm activity tonight. Regardless, it will be another warm night, with lows in the 70s areawide.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330AM Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather pattern into Tuesday with multiple chances for severe weather and heavy rain

- Potential for dangerous heat indices midweek into the end of next week.

Sunday through Tuesday...Unsettled weather will continue into Mon/Tue as upper ridging remains anchored to the south and east.
At the same time, a slow moving upper trough gradually pushes E'wards across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic next week with multiple weak shortwaves tracking along the periphery of this upper trough. At the surface, cold front to the north at the start of the period will dive SE'wards on Sun, eventually stalling over the area Sun night, before lifting N on Mon and remaining just north of the area on Tue. As this occurs, the frontal boundary and Seabreeze will become the focus for shower and thunderstorm activity each day. The general trend for each day will be for ongoing showers and thunderstorms offshore to gradually push onshore with the Seabreeze each morning. Then by the afternoon as the front nears the area, additional shower and thunderstorm activity develops before chances lower and precip pushes offshore each night. With warm and muggy conditions expected, MLCAPES will reach 2500-3500 J/kg on Sun and then 1500-2500 J/kg on Mon/Tue. With 0-6 km deep layer shear maxing out around 25-40 kts each day and the front/Seabreeze providing ample forcing, there will be a threat for some of this activity to become severe in nature with damaging winds being the primary hazard, though a few isolated instances of hail and an isolated tornado can't be completely ruled out. The one limiting factor each day will be the weak mid-level lapse rates which may preclude a broader severe threat. Either way SPC currently has the area under a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms on Sun. Will have to monitor trends but if convective coverage is anticipated to be larger than currently expected upgrades to the current threat may become necessary.

Otherwise, with SW'rly surface flow continuing to pump ample moisture N'wards from the Gulf, expect PWATs to change little, remaining around 2 inches into Tue night while remaining muggy.
Combined with slow storm motions, potentially training storms, and plenty of moisture, any storm that does develop will be a very efficient rain maker and localized flooding threat is on the table through early in the week (See HYDRO Section for more details). As a result portions, if not all of the FA is under a marginal/slight risk for excessive rainfall into Tue. Temps each day get into the upper 80s to low 90s with lows in the 70s each night.

Wednesday into next weekend... Upper pattern eventually becomes more zonal by midweek with a return to a more summer like pattern with thunderstorms developing off the daily seabreeze and gradually pushing inland each day bringing. Will note, an upper level trough will be digging into the Mid-Atlantic from the west late next week, but should stay north of ENC given the latest guidance. As a result, a weak surface cold front may track across the region late next week, but impacts from this front remain uncertain. Of bigger note will be the hot and muggy conditions as a combination of temps in the 90s Wed/Thurs and dewpoints in the 70s will result in hazardous heat indices with "feels like" temps closer to the triple digits each day. Will have to monitor trends, but the years first heat advisories may be needed next week if the current forecast holds.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sunday/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

Key Messages

- Low confidence CIG and TSRA forecast over the next 24 hrs

A pair of upper level disturbances will impact ENC over the next 12- 18 hours, likely supporting an increased risk of SHRA, TSRA, and sub VFR conditions. The first wave is about to move off the ENC coast, and has been supporting SCT SHRA east of a KPGV to KEWN line. The next wave is currently lifting NE through South Carolina. It's this wave that is expected to bring another round of SHRA and TSRA to much of ENC on Saturday. Of note, some guidance suggests the TSRA risk may develop as early as 07z-09z this morning. In the meantime, an area of low stratus (IFR/MVFR CIGs ) will continue to impact portions of ENC. CIGs should begin to rise as the SHRA and TSRA risk increases, but there will also be a subsequent increase in the risk of sub VFR VIS. By Saturday evening, somewhat drier air aloft may nose into the area with a reduced risk of SHRA and TSRA. Overall, confidence in the TSRA and CIG forecast over the next 12-24 hours is lower than normal.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330AM Saturday...Unsettled weather will continue to persist across the area into midweek next week as multiple fronts bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to Eastern North Carolina. Greatest threat to see storms will be each afternoon and evening across the FA. This will bring a daily threat for sub-VFR conditions each day. In addition to this, early morning fog development will remain possible for areas that see rain.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

Key Messages

- Increased thunderstorm risk for areas waters again today

An upper level wave is forecast to move through the ENC waters this morning through this afternoon, supporting another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The thunderstorm risk may extend into tonight for the central and southern coastal waters. For all waters, the strongest thunderstorms will be capable of 30-40kt+ winds and waterspouts.
The greatest waterspout risk appears to be across the Albemarle Sound vicinity. Outside of the thunderstorm activity, the background flow will be southwesterly at 10-20kt which will support seas of 3-5 ft.

LONG TERM /Sunday though Wednesday/...
As of 330AM Saturday... No significant changes to the forecast on this update as high pressure centered offshore in the Atlantic will continue to interact with frontal boundaries tracking across the region into next week. This will bring daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with offshore showers in the morning clearing by the afternoon and then additional shower and thunderstorm activity expected in the evening. This will bring a threat for locally enhanced winds and seas within any thunderstorm that moves out over the waters. Otherwise 5-15 kt SW'rly winds with gusts near 20-25 kts are forecast for Sun with slightly stronger winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt will be possible on Monday with the approach of a frontal boundary.
Winds ease slightly back down to 5-15 kt out of the SW on Tue as high pressure tries to reestablish itself offshore. Seas remain around 2-4 ft through the period.

HYDROLOGY
As of 230 AM Saturday...

An area of increased lift will overlap with a moderately unstable, but anomalously moist, airmass today, supporting areas of intense rainfall rates. While the most intense rainfall rates will tend to be of relatively shorter duration at any one location, the rates may support a few instances of flash flooding. There appears to be a locally higher risk north of the HWY 264 corridor where thunderstorms may be a bit more organized, potentially supporting a longer residence time of the higher rates. This is also the same area that received the heaviest rainfall over the past 24 hours, and where FFG is the lowest. A Flood Watch was contemplated in that area, but the coverage of thunderstorms may be scattered enough to limit the overall risk. This will continue to be re-evaluated through the day. Similar conditions will be possible on Sunday and Monday as a frontal boundary remains around the area which will continue to promote a heavy rain and isolated flash flooding threat across portions of ENC.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.