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FXUS64 KTSA 040450 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1050 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 620 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

The main update to the grids was to insert sprinkle mention across NE OK into NW AR in association with upper low moving across KS into MO. Remainder of forecast remains untouched. Cold front/wind shift has entered NE OK early this evening and will progress east/south tonight.

Lacy

SHORT TERM
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 200 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Cold front currently into NW OK will sweep quickly eastward this evening with breezy northerly winds following. A few sprinkles or flurries could skirt across NE OK and far NW AR, however measurable precipitation is not expected.

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Sunny skies and only slightly cooler conditions on Monday with the next cold front passing Monday night into Tuesday. This frontal passage is also likely to remain dry.

Pattern change develops by mid week with ridging aloft expanding through the central CONUS. Breezy southerly winds and noticeably warmer temperatures will return with temperatures well above seasonal normals Wednesday through Friday.

Forecast uncertainty increases by next weekend with the latest data continuing to show considerable spread in the strength and timing of the next trough and associated frontal passage. The general trend will be toward some increase in precip chances and cooler temperatures next weekend with details yet to be determined.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

A couple of changes were made in the 06z TAF package. First, went ahead and included LLWS at all terminal sites, except for MLC and FSM, through about 08-10z as winds gust to around 40 knots about 2000 feet above ground level behind a cold front that is currently pushing through the region. Secondly, added MVFR ceilings at FYV, ROG, and XNA for a few hours just before sunrise as a low- level inversion tries to setup over the NW AR terminals. Although the forecast confidence of ceilings occurring isn't the greatest, signals in NAM forecast soundings suggest a brief TEMPO group for these three terminals is warranted. Otherwise, VFR is expected to prevail at all sites through the forecast period with light W/WSW winds backing out of the SW/S by the end of the forecast period.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 60 32 56 35 / MMM 0 0 0 FSM 62 36 56 35 / MMM 0 0 0 MLC 64 34 57 35 / MMM 0 0 0 BVO 60 28 56 32 / MMM 0 0 0 FYV 60 30 54 32 / MMM 0 0 0 BYV 60 34 51 37 / MMM 10 0 0 MKO 59 32 55 34 / MMM 0 0 0 MIO 56 29 52 33 / MMM 0 0 0 F10 60 32 56 35 / MMM 0 0 0 HHW 63 35 57 35 / MMM 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.

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