Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Broken Arrow, OK

SHORT TERM
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Latest satellite imagery shows a mid/upper-level shortwave trough/MCV continuing to shift eastward over southwest MO/northwest AR. Another MCV was observed via satellite, just southwest of the DFW metro, drifting northeastward. This MCV is expected to drift across northeast TX and along the Red River overnight tonight (and eventually over western AR later in the day) and will likely result in additional shower/thunderstorm activity near the Red River after midnight and through the early morning hours this morning.

Weak troughing/lower heights will remain present over the forecast area today, courtesy of the MCV lifting northeast out of Texas, sandwiched between two upper-level highs centered over the southern CA coast and northern Gulf coast. At the surface, a weak and ill- defined stationary frontal boundary will meander near the I-44 corridor through the daytime. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again once daytime heating gets going. Best chances (30-60%) should remain along and south of I- 44, where the best moisture and highest PWATs (1.75-2.00 inches)
remain present. Not really anticipating much in the way of severe storms at this time, though a few may potentially become strong. But if storms are able to cluster and/or train, heavy rainfall will become likely and may lead to flooding/flash flooding. It's worth noting that the overall flooding potential should be isolated and localized, if the potential arises, and widespread flooding/flash flooding is not expected. Otherwise, another unseasonably cool mid- July day, albeit slightly warmer than yesterday, underneath a mixture of sun and clouds is expected across eastern OK and northwest AR, with afternoon highs reaching the mid-upper 80s.

Lastly, patchy fog may develop a few hours before sunrise this morning, specifically across northeast OK and northwest AR.
Widespread dense fog isn't anticipated at this time. Any fog that develops will lift and erode by mid-morning.

Mejia

LONG TERM
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Precipitation chances will continue to decrease and shift eastward beginning tonight and on Tuesday as mid/upper-level ridging from the Gulf begins to retrograde over the Southern Plains and the deep moisture axis shifts eastward. Cannot completely rule out a few spotty showers/storms (20-30% chance) south and and east of I-44 during the daytime Tuesday, but most locations should remain dry.

A weak cold front will approach the area sometime on Thursday, which models have slowed down over the past few runs. The front will likely stall north of the forecast area sometime on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form ahead of the frontal boundary and may impact northern portions of the CWA Thursday into Thursday night. Better details will come in later forecast updates.

The aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge will shift westward over the Plains late in the week and into the upcoming weekend, substantially decreasing precipitation chances and increasing temperatures. Overall, temperatures will gradually increase each day through the long-term, with unseasonably warm temperatures expected by Thursday or Friday.

Mejia

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Most areas will remain dry overnight, with just a few showers ongoing near KFSM. A few spotty showers will remain possible anywhere overnight, but focusing in southeast OK and northwest AR.
Elsewhere, clearing skies will allow for patchy fog formation.
Added tempo groups to several TAF sites with reduced visibility towards dawn. A weak storm system will redevelop ceilings for most areas in the 3-4 kft layer during the day Monday, with showers and storms for southeast OK and northwest AR once again. The main impacts will be brief heavy rain, lightning, and locally gusty winds. Skies will clear for all areas by late evening. Winds will be light and variable through the period away from storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 85 71 88 72 / 20 20 10 10 FSM 86 73 86 73 / 30 50 50 30 MLC 85 70 86 72 / 40 30 40 20 BVO 88 67 88 69 / 30 20 10 0 FYV 83 68 83 69 / 40 30 40 20 BYV 83 68 83 69 / 50 30 50 20 MKO 84 70 85 71 / 20 20 30 10 MIO 83 68 86 70 / 60 20 20 10 F10 84 69 86 71 / 10 20 20 10 HHW 85 70 86 71 / 50 40 40 30

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.