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FXUS64 KTSA 031125 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 525 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today)
Issued at 333 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Areas of light fog continue to slowly develop this morning. Low level winds have allowed for enough mixing to keep visibilities generally in the 3 to 5 mile range, but latest satellite trends indicate the potential for denser fog development over Pawnee/Creek and Okfuskee counties. With visibilities likely dropping below 1/2 mile in some locations will go ahead and issue a dense fog advisory for these areas. The advisory may also need to be expanded and will continue to monitor latest trends.

Otherwise, mild/breezy conditions expected today ahead of a cold front, which will move into northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon.
A limited to elevated fire weather threat is expected ahead of boundary as minimum RH values fall to around 30 percent across portions of the area.

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Gusty northwest winds will likely develop behind cold front this evening, slowly subsiding into Monday as surface ridge builds into the region. Another surge of cool/dry air on Tuesday will keep temperatures near normal with a slow warming trend developing on Wednesday as southerly winds return.

Strong and gusty southwest winds are expected on Thursday and with high temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70, fire weather will once again become a concern, although low level moisture will begin to increase during this time. The warm and breezy conditions will continue on Friday ahead of next upper level storm system.

Deterministic models have trended toward a slightly faster/more progressive system with frontal passage Friday night into early Saturday. There remains however a very large spread in the ensemble members and will therefore stay close to NBM guidance for now.
Forecast highs for Saturday would likely have to be lowered 10 degrees or more if the quicker solution verifies, including ending precipitation chances sooner from west to east.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

The main weather concern this morning will be from areas of fog.
Visibility is likely to fall to less than 1 mile for KRVS and KMLC, possibly down to 1/4 mile. Other terminals may also see patchy dense fog develop but confidence is lower. Any fog will clear up by 14-15Z.

As the fog breaks up, breezy south to southwest winds will develop during the afternoon, switching to northwest this evening behind a cold front. Wind gusts of near 20 kts are expected. Some wind shear may also develop this evening, but confidence is low on its extent. So for now it was only mentioned where confidence was highest, at KBVO.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 60 33 55 36 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 62 36 56 35 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 64 35 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 60 28 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 60 30 54 32 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 60 34 52 37 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 59 33 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 56 30 53 33 / 0 0 0 0 F10 60 33 56 34 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 63 34 58 34 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ049-059- 060-064>068-070-071-073>076.

AR...None.

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