Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 9:13 PM   Moonset 6:19 AM

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FXUS64 KTSA 251931 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 231 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Through tonight )
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Some convection continues across far NE OK this afternoon along and just north of a surface warm front. As this feature continues to lift north, the area should be mostly convection free until later tonight. Additional storms are expected to develop within a low level jet axis that sets up to the west late this evening. An area of storm will spread east into NE OK after 09z. Large hail and straight line winds will be the primary severe threats but an isolated tornado threat will exist given the favorable shear that will be in place.

LONG TERM
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Convection will be ongoing Friday morning, however the severe threat will lessen through the morning as the low level jet subsides. Storms may linger across far NW AR into the afternoon, so will keep high PoPs in those areas after 18z. Isolated to scattered storms that can develop back further to the west during the afternoon will have severe potential as the airmass in this area becomes unstable once more. Greatest severe potential will be Saturday as afternoon storms develop along a surface dryline to the west. Storms will move east and enter eastern Oklahoma during the late evening hours. Storm strength will be maintained by a developing low level jet, along with favorable diffluence aloft. All modes of severe will be possible before the severe threat transitions to a more heavy rainfall/ flash flooding threat. Deep layer moisture over the area along with low level flow paralleling the mean flow will support training convection by late Saturday evening and during the overnight hours across NE OK, and will enhance the flooding threat. The upper trough axis will lift through the area on Sunday, with the focus for convection and some severe weather setting up across SE OK and NW AR later in the day Sunday. The first part of the week should remain relatively dry, with increasing storm chances by mid week and another frontal boundary moves into the area.



AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

MVFR conditions will linger into the early afternoon across far northeast OK and northwest AR as showers and a few thunderstorms persist along and north of a warm front. Expectation remains that MVFR ceilings return this evening to remainder of the area, with potentially strong LLWS developing. Consensus is for a strong squall line to develop in northwest TX late this evening and arrive in eastern OK sometime around 10-12z. This complex will likely weaken to some degree with eastward progression, however strong wind gusts remain possible into eastern OK sites early Friday morning. IFR conditions likely with the passage of storms, and MVFR should prevail through Friday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 63 82 67 81 / 90 70 10 70 FSM 62 78 67 84 / 70 90 60 50 MLC 67 79 68 82 / 80 80 30 70 BVO 60 82 63 81 / 90 70 10 70 FYV 58 75 63 81 / 70 90 60 50 BYV 56 73 63 80 / 60 80 60 50 MKO 62 77 65 81 / 90 80 20 60 MIO 59 77 65 81 / 90 90 20 50 F10 65 80 67 80 / 90 70 10 70 HHW 66 75 66 80 / 60 80 40 50

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.

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