Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Broken Arrow, OK

SHORT TERM
(Today)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

A vort max, associated with yesterday evenings convection in west Texas, was making its way east northeast across northern Texas/southern Oklahoma early this morning. Elevated convection remained ongoing within this vort max as it continued to approach southeast Oklahoma. Latest analysis/short-term guidance indicates this convection reaching southeast Oklahoma in the 12-14z time frame with an east northeast movement through the CWA this morning. Isolated strong severe potential exists for strong winds across southeast Oklahoma, though much of the instability looks to hold south of the Red River through the mid morning hours.

This vort max is progged to reach into east central Oklahoma early/mid afternoon and into northwest Arkansas mid/late afternoon and then exit this evening. In response, shower/storm chances return to the rest of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon. Isolated to limited potential for a strong/severe storm with hail and strong wind gusts will continue through sunset and then weaken with the loss of daytime heating and strengthening low level CIN. At this time the greater of the limited potential looks to be in eastern Oklahoma, where the western portion of the instability axis sets up.

Temps this afternoon are forecast to warm into the 70s to low 80s again underneath scattered to broken clouds and southerly winds generally 5-15 mph.

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Additional shower/thunderstorm chances will remain overnight tonight with another weak disturbance passing through the region.
At the same time, some short-term solutions indicate the potential for convection to develop out over the Central Plains this afternoon and drop south/southeast overnight tonight. At this time, the greater MCS potential looks to be just to our west, though will hold chance PoPs across eastern Oklahoma in the event that the eastern portion of convection reaches eastern Oklahoma.

A second weak mid/upper level shortwave is expected to move through the region Thursday while the low level moisture vectors become more aligned across CWA The combination of these features, along with any meso-scale features that are still to be determined from tonight's convection, will increase rain chances over the CWA Thursday into Thursday night. Again, with any outflow boundary from overnight convection and meso-scale details, placement of the greater storm potentials remain uncertain.
However, limited severe potentials develop again, and will continue with scattered thunderstorm chances through the daytime hours Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall potential also develops with the better moisture moving into the region Thursday, which could increase localized flooding concerns due to quick runoff from all the recent rains.

The series of weak shortwaves are progged to continue Friday and into the weekend with a weak frontal boundary sagging southeast into the CWA during the day Friday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast along with daily isolated to limited severe potentials. Weak forcing aloft over the region should help to limit organized severe potentials. The last of these shortwaves look to exit the CWA Sunday afternoon/evening, which could create a lull in precip chances Sunday night into Monday.

Looking into next week, a more amplified/defined area of low pressure moves into the Western CONUS over the weekend and then lifts northeast into the Plains Monday/Tuesday. Latest model solutions continue to track this wave across the Central/Northern Plains which would put the greater forcing north of the CWA
Shower/thunderstorm chances develop again Monday afternoon/evening with the trof axis and a frontal boundary moving into the region.
Additional storm chances continue through the end of the forecast period as a trailing wave to the parent long wave upper level trof looks to move across the Southern Plains by the middle of next week.

While precip chances remain in the forecast through the next several days, temperatures are currently expected to run close to/slightly above seasonal average temperatures into next week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Will add a VCSH at KMLC this morning as they will be near the northern edge of a decaying complex of showers and storms.
Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions will prevail until late tonight when MVFR ceilings may develop at KMLC. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and early evening, mainly at the eastern Oklahoma sites, with ceiling and visibility restrictions possible where storms occur.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 80 61 75 63 / 50 30 70 60 FSM 83 62 76 65 / 30 30 70 50 MLC 78 62 75 64 / 50 40 70 50 BVO 78 59 74 61 / 50 30 70 70 FYV 80 60 74 62 / 20 30 70 50 BYV 80 60 74 63 / 20 20 70 50 MKO 79 60 74 63 / 50 30 70 50 MIO 79 59 73 62 / 30 20 70 60 F10 78 61 74 63 / 40 40 70 50 HHW 77 63 76 65 / 40 40 70 40

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.