LONG TERM
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Saturday still appears to be “best” chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms, as well as the coolest day in the period, as a weak upper-level low drifts over the forecast area. However, despite an increase in PoPs (20-60%) and PWATs (1.5-1.7 inches), only light to moderate rainfall amounts are expected. In general, deterministic models and ensembles only show rainfall accumulations around half-an-inch or less, with locally higher amounts occurring with heavier showers/storms, through Sunday. For the most part, highest amounts are anticipated to fall on the east side of the upper low -- across southeast OK and northwest AR. It’s also possible some locations may not see much, if any, measurable precipitation. Precipitation chances will trend lower through the day Sunday as the upper low transitions into an open trough and continues to lift northward over Mid Mississippi Valley.

Mid/upper-level ridging will build over the region from the west by Monday, strengthening by midweek. This will result in unseasonably hot temperatures and mostly dry weather for much of the week. Heat headlines will likely be needed each day Monday through at least Thursday, with heat indices 105F or higher each afternoon. Not only will daytime temperatures be excessive, but nighttime temperatures will be abnormally mild and humid as well, with overnight lows in the mid-upper 70s Monday night-Wednesday night. A few spots, including the Tulsa metro, may not drop below 80 degrees a couple of nights. The potent ridge is forecast to gradually retrograde westward late in the week, which should help alleviate some of the excessive heat and may allow a weak surface cold front to push into the forecast area, increasing precipitation chances on Friday and Saturday. Better details to come in later forecasts.

Mejia

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Scattered to broken low clouds in the 2-6 kft layer will continue through the afternoon, with the thicker coverage for KMLC and the terminals in northwest AR. A few afternoon showers and thunderstorms may occur (20% chance) for the AR terminals, especially near KFSM. Any impacts would be minor and brief.

Cloud cover may thin for for the first part of the night but ceilings will then redevelop and lower for southeast OK and northwest AR. Additional showers and storms may develop Saturday across AR with locally gusty wind, brief heavy rain, and lightning. Elsewhere, winds will mostly be light and out of the southeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 71 88 73 93 / 10 20 0 0 FSM 71 87 73 92 / 30 40 10 20 MLC 69 87 72 91 / 10 30 0 10 BVO 67 89 69 94 / 10 20 0 0 FYV 67 84 69 89 / 30 60 20 20 BYV 68 83 68 89 / 20 60 20 30 MKO 69 86 71 91 / 10 30 0 10 MIO 69 87 70 90 / 20 40 10 20 F10 69 87 71 92 / 10 20 0 10 HHW 69 84 70 89 / 10 30 0 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.