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FXUS64 KTSA 181718 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1218 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Areas of fog across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas have dissipated this morning. A warm and humid day is on tap across the area as high temperatures soar into the mid to upper 80s for most locations this afternoon. Subtle surface to mid level ridging building into the region will keep skies mostly clear through the day with light winds. Going forecast remains in good shape with no updates needed this morning.

Bowlan

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Shortwave ridging remains largely in control Sunday, with another very warm and humid afternoon, as some spots likely reach low 90s.
Signal remains in strong to severe thunderstorm development along the dry line to our west late Sunday afternoon across northwest OK, some of which eventually moves east toward our area. This activity will be on the decline Sunday night as it moves this far east. Dry line appears less active Monday with increased capping spreading north as mid level heights again rise temporarily.

Potentially more active severe weather day is possible Tuesday as a stronger shortwave ejects into the Central Plains, resulting in stronger deep layer wind fields and modest height falls into the Southern Plains. Uncertainty continues regarding storm mode and coverage, but this period appears to offer the highest chance of severe weather for this region.

Cold front expected to push through Wednesday with storm chances continuing. Evolution of the pattern into late next week remains in question, but generally looks active.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the period for all sites.
One exception could be some patchy fog formation early tomorrow morning for the AR sites. Southerly winds will begin to increase during the day tomorrow, coming up to around 10 knots by the end of this TAF period.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 63 90 68 91 / 0 0 40 0 FSM 64 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 63 90 70 90 / 0 0 10 0 BVO 60 88 65 90 / 0 0 50 0 FYV 61 88 65 89 / 0 0 10 10 BYV 61 88 65 88 / 0 0 10 10 MKO 63 88 68 89 / 0 0 20 0 MIO 61 88 66 88 / 0 0 30 10 F10 63 88 68 89 / 0 0 20 0 HHW 63 88 68 88 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.

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