DISCUSSION
An axis of high pressure aloft extended just off the northern Baja California coast to across Colorado during the early morning, shifted a bit further south than 24 hours ago. At the same time, a trough was moving across western Canada and the Pacific Northwest states. Under the influence of the trough to the north the high will continue to shift southward. The shift of the high will allow a drier westerly flow to move over the area for a shutdown of monsoon activity over much of northern and central Arizona.

For Today through Wednesday...The high will continue to be suppressed southward under the influence of the trough to the north. Drier air will push across the area with showers and storms becoming mostly confined to the area along and south of a Heber to St. Johns line. Only stray and extremely isolated storms are anticipated outside of the above area. The approach of the trough will strengthen pressure gradients with afternoon southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph today and Sunday. From Monday into Wednesday, troughing will begin to weaken over Arizona for weakening pressure gradients resulting in lighter afternoon winds, generally ranging from 5 to 15 mph. Look for slightly cooler daytime temperatures under the influence of the more moderate westerly flow.

From Thursday through the end of the week...The forecast models show the Pacific Northwest trough lifting and moving to the east with high pressure amplifying back over the western states. Models have not wavered from this scenario over the past 24 hours. If this pattern emerges the door would once again open to moist low- level flow from over the Gulf of California and thunderstorm outflows from over northwest Mexico/southeast Arizona. We'll be keeping an eye on the trough energy to the north but at this time we are anticipating a gradual return to an active monsoon toward the end of the week.

AVIATION
Saturday 27/06Z through Sunday 28/06Z...VFR conditions are expected with SCT-BKN cloud cover overnight. Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA are forecast from 19Z-03Z mainly confined along and south of a KPAN-KSOW-KSJN line. Elsewhere can anticipate dry conditions. Light and variable winds overnight, become southwest 15-25 kts by 16Z/17Z.

OUTLOOK
Sunday 28/06Z through Tuesday 30/06Z
VFR conditions are expected through the weekend as a drying trend develops.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be confined to the White Mountains each afternoon. Anticipate west-southwest winds 15-20 kts in the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER
Today and Sunday...A drying trend with any showers and thunderstorms mainly confined to the Eastern Mogollon Rim/southern Apache County. Afternoon southwesterly winds 15 to 25 mph both days.

Monday through Wednesday...The drying trend continues, with minimum humidity falling to 10 to 25 percent. Precipitation chances limited to southern Navajo and Apache counties. Afternoon southwesterly winds decreasing to 10 to 20 mph.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.