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FXUS65 KFGZ 071205 AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 505 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
A dry trough of low pressure will bring increasing southwest winds across northern Arizona today. Winds will become stronger and more west to northwesterly on Friday. There are slight chances for light precipitation in the Four Corners region on Friday. Saturday will be cold before a warming trend begins Sunday.

DISCUSSION
A band of high clouds moving across northern Arizona marks the passage of an upper level trough. This will bring increasing southwest winds to our area today. This will allow more mixing to valley locations which will bring a few degrees of warming especially for areas north-east of the Mogollon Rim today.
Higher elevation temperatures will be about the same or a few degrees cooler than yesterday. The southwest winds today will become 10 to 20 MPH with gusts to between 30 and 40 MPH...especially from the Kaibab Plateau to the Mogollon Rim to the White Mountains and downslope areas just to the northeast.

The main trough will move across northern Arizona tonight with the aforementioned areas seeing steady or even stronger winds. The winds will become west to northwest during the day Friday. This trough has only limited moisture and the (slight) chances for showers will be limited to north of a Page-Window Rock line Friday and Friday evening. High temperatures will drop 8 to 12 degrees from Thursday to Friday.

As the trough moves east of our area Friday night through Saturday, cold northeasterly winds will develop as surface high pressure builds over the Rocky Mountain states. Saturday morning lows will be rather cold with only the lowest elevations remaining above freezing. Some single digit readings are expected in some of the mountain valley locations. High temperatures Saturday will be some of the coldest so far this season, with mid 30s in the mountains including Flagstaff and Window Rock, to upper 40s and 50s for Prescott and the Verde Valley. Northeast breezes gusting 20-30 mph at times along/south of the Mogollon Rim and Bradshaw Mtns will make it feel even colder.

High pressure briefly builds toward the region Sunday through Monday with high temperatures rebounding. Much of the guidance shows a weak cutoff low somewhere over the Southwest by Tuesday with a cool down and increasing clouds.

AVIATION
Thursday 07/12Z through Friday 08/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions are forecast with only a slight chance of MVFR conditions along the Arizona/Utah border between 05Z-09Z.
Southwest winds gusting to 20-25 kts developing by midday, continuing into tonight northeast of higher terrain features where local gusts of 30-40 kts will be possible.

OUTLOOK
Friday 08/12Z through Sunday 10/12Z
Look for VFR conditions. Friday will see west to northwest wind gusts of 20-40 kts through midday gradually diminishing in the afternoon.
Gusty northeast winds developing from KFLG-KSOW south and west by early morning Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER
Today through Friday...For today look for southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph becoming west to northwest on Friday. Otherwise, dry and turning cooler.

Saturday through Monday...Dry. North to northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph on Saturday will become light and variable Sunday and Monday. Colder on Saturday with some warming from Sunday into Monday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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