Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Low Mountain, AZ
May 19, 2024 4:29 AM MDT (10:29 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:05 AM Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 3:56 PM Moonset 2:59 AM |
FXUS65 KFGZ 190828 AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 128 AM MST Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Warm and dry weather will continue over the weekend with a slight cool down next week. Look for gusty afternoon winds each day, strongest on Monday with the passing of a dry weather disturbance.
DISCUSSION
Similar to recent mornings clear skies were being observed across Arizona during the early morning. For today, a drying southwest flow will set up across northern Arizona as a longwave trough develops over the western states. As a result, look for warm daytime temperatures to continue with another round of afternoon sustained winds in the 10 to 20 mph range gusting to around 35 mph. It will remain dry.
On Monday and Tuesday...A stronger shortwave disturbance will rotate through the western states longwave pattern producing even stronger winds. Look for southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph gusting into the 45 to 55 mph range, especially from the Mogollon Rim northward Monday afternoon. The main concern on Monday will be a heightened fire weather threat as dry air and gusty winds combine for an environment conducive to rapid fire spread. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for portions of northern Arizona on Monday.
Later on Monday into Tuesday there will be enough moisture combined with dynamic lift and cooling aloft for a slight chance of high based showers. The northern border and Four Corners could see a stray shower. In addition, a nose of moisture will attempt to sneak over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains area for slight chances for showers in those locations as well. Lighter winds are forecast for Tuesday as the short-wave moves eastward. High temperatures will cool some by around 5 to 10 degrees compared to Sunday.
From Wednesday onward...A series of short-wave troughs continue to brush northern Arizona delivering afternoon west to southwest breezes each day and periodic slight chances for high-based showers along the Arizona/Utah border.
AVIATION
Sunday 19/06Z through Monday 20/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light winds overnight becoming southwest 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts after 16Z Sunday. Winds decrease again after 02Z Monday. Local visibility reductions from wildfire smoke are possible, especially near KPAN.
OUTLOOK
Monday 20/06Z through Wednesday 22/06Z
Stronger southwest winds 20-30 kts with gusts from 35-45 kts develop on Monday. Winds turn west to northwest Tuesday at 10-20 kts gusting to 25 kts. VFR conditions are expected.
FIRE WEATHER
Today and Monday..Cooler and dry conditions, with critical fire weather conditions possible on Monday. Southwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts 25-35 mph today, increasing to 25-35 mph with gusts 35-50 mph on Monday. Afternoon minimum RH 5-15%, with overnight recoveries 30-60%.
Tuesday through Thursday...Continued dry conditions with near-normal temperatures. West winds 10-20 mph on Tuesday, becoming southwest on Wednesday. Winds increasing to 15-25 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH 5- 15% each afternoon.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for AZZ107>110-112>114-139-140.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 128 AM MST Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Warm and dry weather will continue over the weekend with a slight cool down next week. Look for gusty afternoon winds each day, strongest on Monday with the passing of a dry weather disturbance.
DISCUSSION
Similar to recent mornings clear skies were being observed across Arizona during the early morning. For today, a drying southwest flow will set up across northern Arizona as a longwave trough develops over the western states. As a result, look for warm daytime temperatures to continue with another round of afternoon sustained winds in the 10 to 20 mph range gusting to around 35 mph. It will remain dry.
On Monday and Tuesday...A stronger shortwave disturbance will rotate through the western states longwave pattern producing even stronger winds. Look for southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph gusting into the 45 to 55 mph range, especially from the Mogollon Rim northward Monday afternoon. The main concern on Monday will be a heightened fire weather threat as dry air and gusty winds combine for an environment conducive to rapid fire spread. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for portions of northern Arizona on Monday.
Later on Monday into Tuesday there will be enough moisture combined with dynamic lift and cooling aloft for a slight chance of high based showers. The northern border and Four Corners could see a stray shower. In addition, a nose of moisture will attempt to sneak over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains area for slight chances for showers in those locations as well. Lighter winds are forecast for Tuesday as the short-wave moves eastward. High temperatures will cool some by around 5 to 10 degrees compared to Sunday.
From Wednesday onward...A series of short-wave troughs continue to brush northern Arizona delivering afternoon west to southwest breezes each day and periodic slight chances for high-based showers along the Arizona/Utah border.
AVIATION
Sunday 19/06Z through Monday 20/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light winds overnight becoming southwest 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts after 16Z Sunday. Winds decrease again after 02Z Monday. Local visibility reductions from wildfire smoke are possible, especially near KPAN.
OUTLOOK
Monday 20/06Z through Wednesday 22/06Z
Stronger southwest winds 20-30 kts with gusts from 35-45 kts develop on Monday. Winds turn west to northwest Tuesday at 10-20 kts gusting to 25 kts. VFR conditions are expected.
FIRE WEATHER
Today and Monday..Cooler and dry conditions, with critical fire weather conditions possible on Monday. Southwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts 25-35 mph today, increasing to 25-35 mph with gusts 35-50 mph on Monday. Afternoon minimum RH 5-15%, with overnight recoveries 30-60%.
Tuesday through Thursday...Continued dry conditions with near-normal temperatures. West winds 10-20 mph on Tuesday, becoming southwest on Wednesday. Winds increasing to 15-25 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH 5- 15% each afternoon.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for AZZ107>110-112>114-139-140.
Flagstaff, AZ,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE