Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Southern Shores, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Light rain lifts across the area this morning and offshore this afternoon.

Complex surface pressure pattern this morning with several areas of low pressure over the central CONUS and high pressure off the Southeast coast. Split flow is noted aloft with a southern stream disturbance lifting into the Ohio Valley as another upper trough digs into the Dakotas. Satellite imagery shows thickening mid and high level cirrus across the local area with a broad area of low and mid level clouds poised to move in from the west this morning.

The shortwave over western TN/KY will be the main area of forcing for light precip across the area today. Light rainfall spreads into the Piedmont around sunrise, spreading quickly north and east across the remainder of the area by early afternoon. Not expecting much QPF with this first system with around 0.25" across the SW counties, tapering to 0.2-0.1" to the south of I-64 and 0.1" or less for areas to the north. Lift will be short-lived with most of the precip moving offshore by early to mid afternoon. Temperatures will stay above seasonal averages but not to the level we saw across the region yesterday. Highs top out in the upper 50s to low 60s with extensive clouds for most of the day with some thinning possible across the NW and N (but not in time for any appreciable surface insolation). Will maintain chance to slight chance PoPs across the south tonight with little in the way of additional QPF. Lows tonight generally in the low to mid 40s with upper 40s and low 50s south and east of a line from Hampton Roads to Ahoskie, NC.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Weak forcing results in scattered showers for the first half of Tuesday with increasing lift and low level moisture through the afternoon and early evening.

- Widespread soaking rainfall moves in Tuesday night and especially Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. Rain comes to an end Wednesday evening with colder/drier air moving into the region.

Broad SW flow aloft will be in place on Tuesday with scattered showers possible across the southern half of the area through early afternoon. Thereafter, stronger lift begins to impinge on the Piedmont through the afternoon as a strong trough aloft digs into the upper Midwest and starts to phase with a southern stream perturbation. Have increased PoPs and QPF across the Piedmont Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will rise into the 60s to low 70s (highest SE) as southerly flow strengthens in response to surface cyclogenesis to the west. PoPs increase to categorical from NW to SE Tuesday evening into early Wednesday. Accordingly, the heaviest QPF will be focused over the western half of the area through sunrise Wednesday. Temps will not fall by much overnight with lows only in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Low pressure lifts into PA/NY Wednesday morning and deepens considerably (~990mb) into New England by the evening. Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall expected across the region on Wednesday. Storm total QPF (today's light event as well as the heavier Tuesday/Wednesday rainfall) now ranges from 1.5-2.5" with the highest amounts expected along and NW of a line from Clarksville, VA northeast to Richmond and Cambridge, MD. WPC has included the entire area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall but the very dry antecedent conditions should mitigate widespread flooding concerns. Model forecast soundings show some limited instability aloft so have included a slight chance of thunder for portions of SE VA and NE NC. The surface front progresses through the area during the afternoon with some cooler and drier air moving into the Piedmont by 4pm or so. It will also be gusty behind the front, especially near the coast.
High temps range from around 60 across the Piedmont to the mid upper 60s and low 70s east of I-95. Rain tapers off over the eastern third of the area Wednesday evening and all precip should be offshore by midnight. Colder air moves in behind the front with lows falling into the upper 20s to low 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Cold and dry Thursday and Friday with moderating temps Saturday and Sunday.

High pressure builds in for Thursday and Friday bringing drier conditions and much colder temperatures. Highs will be in the low to mid 40s Thursday and upper 30s to low 40s Friday. There could still be a slight breeze on Thursday making it feel even colder, before the wind subsides for Friday. Thursday night will be the coldest of the period with lows bottoming out in the teens to around 20 degrees for rural locations, and mid to upper 20s closer to the coast. Cloud cover will increase on Friday as a weak shortwave passes to the north. Temps increase a bit on Saturday with 40s to low 50s and not as cold overnight with lows in the upper 20s NW to the upper 30s and low 40s SE. Highs Sunday creep back into the 50s for most of the area. Will leave the weekend mostly dry for now given substantial model disagreement at this range.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions continue through tonight with cloud cover increasing overnight from SW to NE. CIGs lower Mon morning from SW to NE as a shortwave moves in with a brief period of light to moderate rain expected. MVFR CIGs will be possible at all terminals with the highest confidence at RIC/SBY where a few hours of MVFR CIGs and perhaps an hour or two of IFR CIGs will are possible. The rain moves through quickly with ~3 hours of precipitation expected at any given location. For now, the rain looks to arrive at RIC/ECG between 14-17z, ORF/PHF between 15-17z, and SBY between 17-21z. CIGs improve to VFR for all terminals except SBY by 18z with SBY improving by 21z. A few isolated, light showers are possible Mon afternoon with the best chance across SE VA/NE NC, however, confidence is too low to reflect in the TAFs. Will also note that LLWS is possible at RIC Mon morning.

Outlook: Rain chances increase Tue into Wed with moderate rain likely (potentially heavy at times) Tue night into Wed. This rain will likely bring reduced CIGs and VIS along with gusty winds. A strong cold front pushes through late Wed with improving conditions expected by Wed night.

MARINE
As of 240 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Generally Sub-SCA conditions expected through Tuesday evening, although occasional gusts to SCA criteria are likely this afternoon.

- A frontal system will bring another round of SCAs from Wednesday through Thursday. Confidence in a short (3-6 hour)
period of 35-40 kt gusts is increasing Wednesday evening through part of Wednesday night.

- Sub-SCA conditions return by late Thursday night.

Low pressure is located over the upper Midwest early this morning with high pressure off the Southeast coast. A warm front is located over the northern waters. Benign marine conditions prevail at this hour, with S-SW winds of 5-10 kt and 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves. Winds increase today as the low over the Midwest tracks eastward while the warm front lifts N across the region. Expect winds to average 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt on the bay with 15-20 kt winds (and gusts to 25 kt) on the ocean. The thinking remains the same that prevailing wind speeds/gusts will be just below SCA criteria later today across most of the waters, although occasional gusts to just above SCA criteria are likely between 15-21z/10 AM-4 PM. Went ahead and issued an SCA for the upper bay (N of Windmill Pt) during this time period, where confidence in a 3 hour period of prevailing 20-25 kt gusts is higher. In fact, local wind probs for sustained 18kt+ winds are 50- 70% here, while they are only 5-20% in the middle/lower bay zones.
Seas build to 3-4 ft later today, with 2-3 ft waves. Winds diminish to 10-15 kt this evening, then remain southerly and Sub-SCA through Tuesday. Seas subside to 2-3 ft with 1-2 ft waves during this time.

The next period of SCAs looks to be early Wed into Thursday ahead of and behind a strong cold front. S/SW winds increase to 20-25 kt (w/ gusts to 30 kt) ahead of the front by late Tue night/Wed AM. These elevated S-SW winds will last through the day on Wed. Occasional gusts to 35 kt are possible across the northern coastal waters during the day. That strong cold front is progged to cross the waters Wednesday evening. Winds abruptly switch to the WNW immediately following the FROPA. Confidence in a short (3-6 hour)
duration WNW gale event with gusts of 35-40 kt is increasing immediately following the FROPA (likely during the 6 PM-1 AM timeframe) as local wind probs for 34+ kt gusts have increased to 40- 60% across much of the marine area Wed evening. Also, model wind fields show 35-40+ kt 925mb winds for a few hrs immediately behind the front...which should be able to mix down to the sfc with the strong CAA. It is a bit too early for marine headlines for Wed/Wed night...but future shifts may need to consider Gale Watches based on trends. Winds should diminish to 20-25 kt Wed night as the front pushes well offshore. Westerly winds will continue to gradually diminish through the day Thursday. Sub-SCA conditions return Thu night and continue through the remainder of the workweek.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630.