Southern Shores, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Southern Shores, NC

June 24, 2024 2:51 PM EDT (18:51 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM
Moonrise 10:03 PM   Moonset 7:11 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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AMZ231 Croatan And Roanoke Sounds- 106 Pm Edt Mon Jun 24 2024

.severe Thunderstorm watch 451 in effect until 8 pm edt this evening - .

This afternoon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw late. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop late. Showers and tstms.

Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Showers and tstms likely in the evening.

Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.

Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.

Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms.

Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.

Thu - W winds around 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.

Thu night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.

Fri - NE winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers in the morning.

Fri night - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 106 Pm Edt Mon Jun 24 2024

Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - A weak front will approach the area today with a line of showers and Thunderstorms. Isolated severe weather is possible. Offshore winds today will shift on Tuesday as atlantic high pressure brings back southerly flow for the latter half of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southern Shores, NC
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 241803 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 203 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front slowly crosses the area today and there is a chance for showers or storms through this afternoon. Drier weather returns tonight into Tuesday, but humidity and temperatures increase yet again for Wednesday. Another cold front approaches the region later Wednesday into Thursday, bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

Early this afternoon, a cold front has made its way through much of the area and is currently located from far SE Virginia Beach and extends back into NE North Carolina. It is quite unstable ahead of the front with MLCAPE ~2500 J/kg in addition to modest shear of ~35 knots. As a result, have seen widespread convection develop along and ahead of the front with some storms becoming severe (damaging wind gusts remain the primary threat).
As typical this time of the year, the front will likely slow down as it approaches the Albemarle Sound and eventually stall south of our area. This could lead to a heavy rain threat for southern portions of our NE North Carolina counties due to training storms. The 12z HRRR supports this thinking, showing a 10 to 30% probability of 3" in 3 hours focused closer to the Albemarle Sound. Widespread flooding is not anticipated due to the dry conditions, but some localized flooding issues cannot be ruled out for areas near the sound. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for portions of our NE North Carolina counties until 8 PM, though there is a good chance that the watch will end early for our counties as the training storms continue to work over the environment.

Behind the front, drier air continues to filter into the region with dewpoints now dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s across our western counties. Cannot rule out a stray shower this afternoon, mainly across the southern half of the forecast area.
Temperatures range from upper 80s to lower 90s behind the front.

All activity likely shifts south of the area by this evening with more comfortable weather settling into the region. Clouds will decrease from NW to SE, with mainly clear skies expected tonight. Temperatures fall back into the low to mid 60s away from the immediate coast, with upper 50s possible in the typically cooler rural spots.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining hot Tuesday, though humidity levels will be comfortable.

- Heat builds again Wednesday and heat indices may near or exceed 100 F again.

Plentiful sunshine and dry conditions are expected for Tuesday with high pressure over the area. While air temperatures will be in the lower 90s (upper 80s at the coast), dewpoints will only be in the 50s to lower 60s, making for a more comfortable day.

High pressure slides offshore by Tuesday night. Winds become southerly Tuesday night which will bring more humid air back into the region. Lows Tuesday night will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. The hot and humid weather returns again for Wednesday with temperatures rising back into the mid to upper 90s for much of the area (possibly 100 in a few typically hotter spots). Heat indices increase to 100-105 F in the afternoon and Heat Advisories may be needed. Another cold front will approach from the N/NW late in the day. Guidance is trending more aggressive with shower and storm potential with this feature, especially in the later afternoon and evening. The highest coverage will tend to focus over northern and northeast portions of the area. A few storms could approach strong or severe levels given moderately strong instability and increasing wind fields aloft (best chance N). Shower/storm chances linger into the overnight period with temps generally in the lower 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms possible with a cold front later Wednesday and Thursday.

- Flash drought conditions developing across most of the area.

The front will drop S Wednesday night into Thursday, focusing the thunderstorm chances across southern VA and NE NC Thursday afternoon. Another period of stronger storms will be possible during the afternoon heating period, but lower shear and wind fields across the S suggest a lower threat. Per collaboration with neighboring offices to our S, have introduced likely PoPs in NE NC.
High temps Thursday generally in the upper 80s to around 90 F.
High pressure will situate N of the area behind the front Friday, shifting offshore by the weekend. An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out Friday across NC or the far SW Piedmont, but most should stay dry and mostly sunny. Hot weather is expected for the weekend as an upper-level dome of high pressure (594+ dm)
expands across the S-central and SE CONUS. The ridge retreats W as a trough drops S of the Great Lakes later Sunday into Monday, bringing a cold front through the area. Scattered showers and storms are thus possible Sunday ahead of this front.

Unfortunately, generally low aerial coverage of rainfall through the extended period suggests continued dry conditions and potential drought development or expansion.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

The convection from earlier has largely shifted south of the terminals, with only ECG still dealing with some lingering issues. Showers and storms will remain near ECG for the next couple of hours before settling down after ~20z. Periods of sub-VFR VSBYs (and potentially CIGs ) with any showers or storms.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period. Winds become NW in the wake of the front this afternoon, occasionally gusting to around 20 knots before becoming light and variable tonight.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR flying conditions are expected through midweek. The next chance for widely scattered showers and storms is Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

MARINE
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

- Small Craft Advisories end this morning for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, Currituck Sound, and the coastal Atlantic.

- Benign marine conditions expected tonight into Tuesday.

- Modest southerly flow returns midweek.

Low pressure is centered over northern New England early this morning, with a trailing and weakening cold front approaching the Mid-Atlantic coast from the NW. The wind remains SW 15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt for most of the marine area aside from the upper rivers. Seas range from 3-5ft S to 5-7ft N, with waves in the Ches.
Bay 2-4ft. SCAs have been extended to 7 AM for the Ches. Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound, and continue through 10 AM for the coastal Atlantic.

The cold front pushes offshore this morning into this evening as weak high pressure builds in from the N. Drier air arrives behind the front but not much cooler. The wind will shift to NW 10-15kt across the northern tier of the area later this morning. In vicinity of the coasts of SE VA/NE NC, the wind will initially be WSW early Monday, and then become light and locally variable in the aftn as the front stalls. By tonight, the wind becomes NNW 5-10kt for most of the marine area, and 10-15kt offshore N of Parramore Is. The front washes out in vicinity of the Carolina coastal plain Tuesday with very weak flow expected through early-mid aftn Tuesday. High pressure rebuilds offshore by the middle of the week with sub-SCA southerly flow returning, generally S to SSW 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt and strongest late aftn and evening Tuesday and Wednesday.
Seas will mainly be 2-3ft tonight into Tuesday with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Seas build to 3-4ft N midweek and waves in the Bay ~2ft with increasing southerly flow. Another weakening cold front pushes through the region Thursday into Thursday night. The wind shifts to NE then E late week and is expected to be at or below 15kt as of this forecast cycle.

CLIMATE
A record high min temp was set 78 was set at Richmond yesterday (6/23) and a record high max temp of 99 for the date was tied at Norfolk.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 6 mi52 minWNW 22G27 75°F 29.77
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 7 mi56 min 64°F2 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 13 mi52 min 77°F 76°F3 ft
44086 17 mi56 min 77°F4 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 23 mi52 minSW 18G21 83°F 84°F29.78
44095 31 mi26 min 80°F4 ft
44079 47 mi172 minWSW 12 80°F 29.77


Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KFFA FIRST FLIGHT,NC 6 sm21 minWNW 09G1910 smMostly Cloudy84°F73°F70%29.77
KMQI DARE COUNTY RGNL,NC 12 sm26 minWNW 10G165 smOvercast Rain 79°F75°F89%29.78
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Wind History graph: FFA
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Tide / Current for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
   
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
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Mon -- 03:57 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:52 AM EDT     3.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:51 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:10 PM EDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
2.6
1
am
1.7
2
am
0.8
3
am
0.2
4
am
-0
5
am
0.2
6
am
0.8
7
am
1.7
8
am
2.5
9
am
3
10
am
3.2
11
am
2.9
12
pm
2.3
1
pm
1.5
2
pm
0.7
3
pm
0.2
4
pm
0
5
pm
0.3
6
pm
1
7
pm
1.9
8
pm
2.9
9
pm
3.6
10
pm
3.9
11
pm
3.8


Tide / Current for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
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Mon -- 04:00 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:57 AM EDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:49 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:16 PM EDT     4.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
2.8
1
am
1.8
2
am
0.8
3
am
0.1
4
am
-0.2
5
am
0
6
am
0.6
7
am
1.3
8
am
2.2
9
am
2.8
10
am
3
11
am
2.8
12
pm
2.3
1
pm
1.5
2
pm
0.8
3
pm
0.2
4
pm
0
5
pm
0.3
6
pm
1
7
pm
1.8
8
pm
2.8
9
pm
3.7
10
pm
4.1
11
pm
4


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of east us   
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Wakefield, VA,




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