Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Southern Shores, NC
December 5, 2023 7:20 PM EST (00:20 UTC)
Sunrise 6:59AM Sunset 4:51PM Moonrise 12:00AM Moonset 12:49PM
AMZ231 Croatan And Roanoke Sounds- 653 Pm Est Tue Dec 5 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers early this evening. A chance of showers late.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Fri..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon and evening, then diminishing to choppy after midnight. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely. A chance of showers after midnight.
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers early this evening. A chance of showers late.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Fri..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon and evening, then diminishing to choppy after midnight. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely. A chance of showers after midnight.
AMZ200 645 Pm Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Offshore low pressure will drag a cold front through the area overnight. The front will be offshore come early Wednesday with breezy nw flow bringing small craft conditions. High pressure will bring lighter winds Thursday through Saturday. Winds and rain chances should increase dramatically Sunday with the arrival of the next front.
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Offshore low pressure will drag a cold front through the area overnight. The front will be offshore come early Wednesday with breezy nw flow bringing small craft conditions. High pressure will bring lighter winds Thursday through Saturday. Winds and rain chances should increase dramatically Sunday with the arrival of the next front.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KAKQ 052357 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 657 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023
SYNOPSIS
A strong upper trough will swing into and across the area late tonight into Wednesday evening. High pressure builds in for Wednesday night and Thursday, before pushing offshore on Friday.
A strong frontal system likely impacts the region on Sunday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...
High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern this afternoon, but a clipper system will quickly approach from the northwest as we head into this evening. Mostly sunny skies this afternoon, but clouds will gradually increase this evening ahead of the clipper system. Since the system is cutoff from gulf moisture, majority of the QPF will be to our W-NW. However, it still appears there will be enough moisture/lift to squeeze out some spotty light rain/sprinkles tonight, potentially as early as this evening NW of RIC, to just after 00z-03z/7-10pm for the I-95 corridor. Low pressure will deepen while moving off the NC coast later this evening and into tonight due to the approaching upper trough.
Best chances for light precipitation still looks to be in roughly the midnight-4 AM tonight/early Wed AM timeframe, with a 20-40% PoP across much of the region (for rain showers) during the remainder of the morning. Precipitation ends from NW-SE Wed late morning through late aftn as the shortwave moves to our SE. While 1000- 500mb thicknesses will be ~530dm, the lowest ~2 kft AGL still appear to be too warm for much in the way of wintry precipitation. That said, model soundings do argue for potential for a brief period of sleet or graupel over the NW tier of counties as the trough axis pivots across the area Wed morning, and wouldn't be surprised to receive a report or two of some PL/graupel early Wed morning. Operational impacts would be minimal at most, with very light/spotty pcpn expected and with lows remaining in the lower to middle 30s.
Otherwise, cool and cloudy conditions for much of the day Wednesday.
The clouds in combination with the increasingly gusty NW wind will make for a chilly day with highs only rising into the mid to upper 40s. W-NW winds will average 10-15 mph inland, 15-20 mph along the coast, with gusts between 20-30 mph from I-95 on east are also forecast, peaking during Wed aftn and early evening. Total QPF generally once again averaging less than 0.10".
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...
Drying out and diminishing winds (especially inland) Wednesday night as high pressure builds back into the region from the west. Low temperatures will range generally be in the mid to upper 20s for many inland locations (some pockets of lower 20s in typically cooler spots) and 30s closer to the coast. Remaining dry on Thursday with high pressure centered south of the local area. A shortwave will pass north of the region, leading to a bit of increased cloudiness across the northern half of the forecast area. Otherwise we will see mostly sunny skies. Temperatures on Thursday will range from the upper 40s to around 50. Not quite as cold Thursday night with light SW flow across the region, lows will range from the upper 20s NW to the mid to upper 30s SE. High pressure slides offshore Friday morning, lingering offshore through the day on Friday. Temperatures begin to warm on Friday with highs generally in the upper 50s to around 60.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...
Surface high slides moves well out to sea Friday night through the weekend. Meanwhile, low pressure will begin to take shape over the central and southern high plains later Friday. That system is forecast to lift E-NE along a strong cold front Friday night into Saturday from the Gulf Coast up through the Ohio Valley. It will remain dry locally through Saturday. However, by Sunday, widespread precipitation from the west appears increasingly likely to push across our area, as the deepening and increasingly dynamic low pressure system lifts across the eastern Great Lakes. This feature will drag its attendant surface cold front through the area either Sunday night or early Monday. This system looks to bring some beneficial rainfall to the region, with both the latest ensemble mean of the GEFS showing in excess of 0.50" of rainfall areawide and the EPS showing ~0.50-1.00". Will also need to keep an eye on potential a thunderstorm threat Sunday afternoon into Sunday night (potentially a few severe thunderstorms) with such a dynamic system and very strong winds just off the surface. We will fine tune these details over the coming days.
Mild temperatures ahead of the front on both Saturday and Sunday with high temperatures in the 60s (potentially upper 60s to lower 70s Sunday). Much cooler air filters into the region behind the front Monday into Monday night. Dry weather early next week as high pressure builds over the region in the wake of the front.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 655 PM EST Tuesday...
BKN-OVC cloud cover with clouds bases averaging around 5-7k ft AGL across most of the area this evening (highest coverage N of the NC/VA border). These clouds should gradually expand, thicken, and gradually lower through the night as a potent upper trough approaches from the west later tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds are light out of the NE and will gradually turn to the NW by the late morning. MVFR CIGs are likely at all terminals (outside of SBY) after ~06-09z and lingering into Wednesday afternoon. Some localized IFR CIGs are possible across central and SE VA between 10-16z, with the best chances looking to be at RIC. Kept CIGs aoa 1000 ft in the TAF at this point, however. Additionally, scattered rain showers will be possible around and after midnight, with periodic showers persisting into early Wednesday afternoon. Gradual clearing and gusty winds (gusts to 20-25 kt) by late Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon from NW to SE.
Outlook: VFR conditions return to area terminals later Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Dry/VFR conditions continue through the remainder of the work week. A strong cold front approaches from the west of Saturday night into Sunday, bringing our next chances for sub-VFR conditions and gusty winds.
MARINE
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...
Weak high pressure is overhead this afternoon, leading to onshore flow around 5-10kt. Seas are 2-3ft and waves are around 1ft. Low pressure will form off the Outer Banks overnight, strengthening as it travels ENE into the Atlantic Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong high pressure will build into the region from the SW. This will result in winds becoming N-NE late tonight into early Wednesday morning at 10- 15 kt. Winds become NNW- NW and increase to at 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt by Wednesday afternoon. Winds remain elevated into Thursday morning as pressure gradient tightens over the area between the low pressure off the coast and the high pressure to the west. SCAs have been raised for everywhere but the upper rivers, where conditions are a bit more marginal. These zones may be added overnight if certainty in SCA conditions increases. Cannot rule out a few gusts to gale-force in the lower Bay and southern coastal waters, but local wind probs are low. Seas will increase quickly to 4-6 ft (3 ft nearshore) Wed aftn-early Thurs, with waves in the Bay increasing to 2-4 ft during this period.
The center of high pressure moves to the south over the area, over SC and GA, and winds gradually turn to the SW and become ~10 kt Thursday aftn, increasing to ~15 kt Thursday night. Uncertainty remains heading into the weekend as a dynamic system looks to approach the region, with elevated southerly winds ahead of the cold front and elevated westerly/northerly winds behind the front Sunday through Monday. 3-4 ft seas and 1-2 ft waves are expected until ~Sat.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ633-638.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 657 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023
SYNOPSIS
A strong upper trough will swing into and across the area late tonight into Wednesday evening. High pressure builds in for Wednesday night and Thursday, before pushing offshore on Friday.
A strong frontal system likely impacts the region on Sunday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...
High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern this afternoon, but a clipper system will quickly approach from the northwest as we head into this evening. Mostly sunny skies this afternoon, but clouds will gradually increase this evening ahead of the clipper system. Since the system is cutoff from gulf moisture, majority of the QPF will be to our W-NW. However, it still appears there will be enough moisture/lift to squeeze out some spotty light rain/sprinkles tonight, potentially as early as this evening NW of RIC, to just after 00z-03z/7-10pm for the I-95 corridor. Low pressure will deepen while moving off the NC coast later this evening and into tonight due to the approaching upper trough.
Best chances for light precipitation still looks to be in roughly the midnight-4 AM tonight/early Wed AM timeframe, with a 20-40% PoP across much of the region (for rain showers) during the remainder of the morning. Precipitation ends from NW-SE Wed late morning through late aftn as the shortwave moves to our SE. While 1000- 500mb thicknesses will be ~530dm, the lowest ~2 kft AGL still appear to be too warm for much in the way of wintry precipitation. That said, model soundings do argue for potential for a brief period of sleet or graupel over the NW tier of counties as the trough axis pivots across the area Wed morning, and wouldn't be surprised to receive a report or two of some PL/graupel early Wed morning. Operational impacts would be minimal at most, with very light/spotty pcpn expected and with lows remaining in the lower to middle 30s.
Otherwise, cool and cloudy conditions for much of the day Wednesday.
The clouds in combination with the increasingly gusty NW wind will make for a chilly day with highs only rising into the mid to upper 40s. W-NW winds will average 10-15 mph inland, 15-20 mph along the coast, with gusts between 20-30 mph from I-95 on east are also forecast, peaking during Wed aftn and early evening. Total QPF generally once again averaging less than 0.10".
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...
Drying out and diminishing winds (especially inland) Wednesday night as high pressure builds back into the region from the west. Low temperatures will range generally be in the mid to upper 20s for many inland locations (some pockets of lower 20s in typically cooler spots) and 30s closer to the coast. Remaining dry on Thursday with high pressure centered south of the local area. A shortwave will pass north of the region, leading to a bit of increased cloudiness across the northern half of the forecast area. Otherwise we will see mostly sunny skies. Temperatures on Thursday will range from the upper 40s to around 50. Not quite as cold Thursday night with light SW flow across the region, lows will range from the upper 20s NW to the mid to upper 30s SE. High pressure slides offshore Friday morning, lingering offshore through the day on Friday. Temperatures begin to warm on Friday with highs generally in the upper 50s to around 60.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...
Surface high slides moves well out to sea Friday night through the weekend. Meanwhile, low pressure will begin to take shape over the central and southern high plains later Friday. That system is forecast to lift E-NE along a strong cold front Friday night into Saturday from the Gulf Coast up through the Ohio Valley. It will remain dry locally through Saturday. However, by Sunday, widespread precipitation from the west appears increasingly likely to push across our area, as the deepening and increasingly dynamic low pressure system lifts across the eastern Great Lakes. This feature will drag its attendant surface cold front through the area either Sunday night or early Monday. This system looks to bring some beneficial rainfall to the region, with both the latest ensemble mean of the GEFS showing in excess of 0.50" of rainfall areawide and the EPS showing ~0.50-1.00". Will also need to keep an eye on potential a thunderstorm threat Sunday afternoon into Sunday night (potentially a few severe thunderstorms) with such a dynamic system and very strong winds just off the surface. We will fine tune these details over the coming days.
Mild temperatures ahead of the front on both Saturday and Sunday with high temperatures in the 60s (potentially upper 60s to lower 70s Sunday). Much cooler air filters into the region behind the front Monday into Monday night. Dry weather early next week as high pressure builds over the region in the wake of the front.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 655 PM EST Tuesday...
BKN-OVC cloud cover with clouds bases averaging around 5-7k ft AGL across most of the area this evening (highest coverage N of the NC/VA border). These clouds should gradually expand, thicken, and gradually lower through the night as a potent upper trough approaches from the west later tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds are light out of the NE and will gradually turn to the NW by the late morning. MVFR CIGs are likely at all terminals (outside of SBY) after ~06-09z and lingering into Wednesday afternoon. Some localized IFR CIGs are possible across central and SE VA between 10-16z, with the best chances looking to be at RIC. Kept CIGs aoa 1000 ft in the TAF at this point, however. Additionally, scattered rain showers will be possible around and after midnight, with periodic showers persisting into early Wednesday afternoon. Gradual clearing and gusty winds (gusts to 20-25 kt) by late Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon from NW to SE.
Outlook: VFR conditions return to area terminals later Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Dry/VFR conditions continue through the remainder of the work week. A strong cold front approaches from the west of Saturday night into Sunday, bringing our next chances for sub-VFR conditions and gusty winds.
MARINE
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...
Weak high pressure is overhead this afternoon, leading to onshore flow around 5-10kt. Seas are 2-3ft and waves are around 1ft. Low pressure will form off the Outer Banks overnight, strengthening as it travels ENE into the Atlantic Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong high pressure will build into the region from the SW. This will result in winds becoming N-NE late tonight into early Wednesday morning at 10- 15 kt. Winds become NNW- NW and increase to at 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt by Wednesday afternoon. Winds remain elevated into Thursday morning as pressure gradient tightens over the area between the low pressure off the coast and the high pressure to the west. SCAs have been raised for everywhere but the upper rivers, where conditions are a bit more marginal. These zones may be added overnight if certainty in SCA conditions increases. Cannot rule out a few gusts to gale-force in the lower Bay and southern coastal waters, but local wind probs are low. Seas will increase quickly to 4-6 ft (3 ft nearshore) Wed aftn-early Thurs, with waves in the Bay increasing to 2-4 ft during this period.
The center of high pressure moves to the south over the area, over SC and GA, and winds gradually turn to the SW and become ~10 kt Thursday aftn, increasing to ~15 kt Thursday night. Uncertainty remains heading into the weekend as a dynamic system looks to approach the region, with elevated southerly winds ahead of the cold front and elevated westerly/northerly winds behind the front Sunday through Monday. 3-4 ft seas and 1-2 ft waves are expected until ~Sat.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ633-638.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 | 6 mi | 80 min | NNE 12G | 52°F | 56°F | 29.96 | ||
| 44056 - Duck FRF, NC | 7 mi | 84 min | 57°F | 3 ft | ||||
| 44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) | 13 mi | 50 min | 52°F | 56°F | 3 ft | |||
| 44086 | 17 mi | 84 min | 58°F | 4 ft | ||||
| ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC | 23 mi | 80 min | NE 14G | 52°F | 57°F | 29.96 | ||
| 44095 | 31 mi | 54 min | 58°F | 4 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFFA FIRST FLIGHT,NC | 6 sm | 10 min | no data | 10 sm | Overcast | 50°F | 41°F | 71% | 29.95 | |
| KMQI DARE COUNTY RGNL,NC | 12 sm | 10 min | NE 11 | 10 sm | Overcast | 52°F | 41°F | 67% | 29.96 |
Wind History from FFA
(wind in knots)Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:47 AM EST 2.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 06:53 AM EST 0.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 12:49 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 12:58 PM EST 2.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 07:27 PM EST 0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:47 AM EST 2.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 06:53 AM EST 0.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 12:49 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 12:58 PM EST 2.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 07:27 PM EST 0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.6 |
| 1 am |
| 2.7 |
| 2 am |
| 2.5 |
| 3 am |
| 2.2 |
| 4 am |
| 1.7 |
| 5 am |
| 1.2 |
| 6 am |
| 0.9 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.4 |
| 10 am |
| 1.9 |
| 11 am |
| 2.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 2 |
Duck Pier
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:02 AM EST 2.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 07:07 AM EST 0.94 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:49 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 12:59 PM EST 2.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 07:43 PM EST 0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:02 AM EST 2.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 07:07 AM EST 0.94 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:49 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 12:59 PM EST 2.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 07:43 PM EST 0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.6 |
| 1 am |
| 2.7 |
| 2 am |
| 2.6 |
| 3 am |
| 2.4 |
| 4 am |
| 2 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.9 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.3 |
| 10 am |
| 1.8 |
| 11 am |
| 2.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.7 |
Wakefield, VA,
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