Monday, April6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Southern Shores, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 7:32PM Monday April 6, 2020 6:10 PM EDT (22:10 UTC) Moonrise 4:58PMMoonset 5:05AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 417 Pm Edt Mon Apr 6 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 11 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms this evening.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 4 ft. Dominant period 11 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 11 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southern Shores, NC
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location: 36.1, -75.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 061957 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 357 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak frontal boundary will be stalled from western Virginia to eastern North Carolina this evening. That boundary moves back north as a warm front from late tonight through Tuesday. A stronger cold front crosses the local area on Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. As of 320 PM EDT Monday .

A weak sfc boundary has settled just S of the Albemarle Sound this afternoon and its tail end is draped back into wrn VA. Right on schedule . ISOLD/SCT SHRAs/tstms are making their way ESE from the higher terrain . and are beginning to enter far wrn portions the FA. MRGL risk severe remains in place from central VA Piedmont S and SE to NE NC. NW flow aloft can be a severe wx signal here (esp in Spring). The most aggressive model for stronger convective development remains the NAM 3KM through the HREF not too much weaker though w/ slightly less coverage. Dry mixed layer w/ a very shallow moist layer right above that should limit development However. there will be the potential for at least gusty winds and hail (rainfall/QPF while briefly heavy) shouldn't result in a major (minor flooding). NNE of a LKU-RIC-ORF line . stable atmos will limit PoPs.

OTW . partly cloudy/VRB clouds through this evening . then partly to mostly cloudy overnight. Winds primarily NNE 10 mph or less . becoming ESE late May be patchy FG late. esp w/ light onshore near sfc flow.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 340 PM EDT Monday .

FA remains under WNW flow aloft Tue. Another (slightly stronger than today's) S/W in the WNW flow aloft will approach and move into the area Tue afternoon..while a warm front will have difficulty pulling back N of the entire FA (namely from the VA nrn-Lower ern shore). Moist SW flow S of the boundary will allow dew points to rise into the u50s-around 60F by Tue afternoon as temperatures rise into the u70s-l80s. SPC has upgraded the entire FA to SLGT risk severe for Tue. The highest prob for strong-severe convection would be once ISOLD/SCT SHRAs/tstms develop across the VA/NC Piedmont by early afternoon before moving E across central/ern VA by late afternoon-early evening Climatologically. its tough to get (widespread) SVR on the ern shore (this early) due to that area being surrounded by the cooler bay/ocean waters. Maintained PoPs mainly from 25-50% across most of central/ESE VA Tue afternoon-early evening . tapering to 15-25% across interior NE NC to south central VA. Will have becoming partly sunny S while remaining mostly cloudy N and NE Tue. Highs ranging from the 60s near the bay and on the ern shore to the u70s-l80s central/SE VA to NE NC.

Coverage of pcpn decreases Tue night w/ a mainly dry forecast for most areas, except for a 15-35% chc of showers across the NNE third of the FA (highest on the Lower Ern Shore). Lows Tue night in the mid 50s-around 60F.

On Wed . a sfc lo over the Great Lakes tracks across PA and eventually offshore . pushing a weak boundary through the local area during the latter part of the day Wed will be mainly dry SW. but ISOLD SHRAs/tstms cannot be ruled out late in the day . mainly E of I-95 as the boundary crosses the region (before the best upper forcing moves offshore and despite deep layered WSW flow).

SPC has the FA in a MRGL risk for severe wx on Wed OTW. partly cloudy conditions will lead to a warmer day for all areas. Highs in the 70s on the ern shore w/ mainly low-mid 80s elsewhere. The weak boundary washes out Wed night and winds turn back to the S as strong low pressure (sfc-aloft) tracks ESE across srn Canada. The associated (trailing) cold front is expected to reach near/just W of the Appalachians by 12z/09. Still dry Wed night w/ lows mainly in the 50s. That cold front crosses the region Thu . potentially leading to at least ISOLD pcpn for N and NE areas OTW. partly cloudy and breezy Thu w/ highs in the m-u70s N to the m80s over interior NE NC.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 310 PM EDT Monday .

The extended period will bring cooler wx to the local area. The 12Z/06 hints at (but to a lesser extent) a system tracking across the SE states which may brush srn VA-NE NC w/ at least clouds (Fri) OTW. partly cloudy . breezy and cooler w/ lows Thu night in the l-m40s N and W to the u40s SE. Highs Fri mainly in the m-u50s.

Dry and remaining cool Fri night through Sat night. By Sun into Mon . models disagree on the timing of a potentially more significant area of lo pres tracking through the region. Right now . used a blend of the guidance . and increased clouds/PoPs Sun-Mon. Lows Fri night in the m-u30s inland to the m-u40s along the SE VA/NE NC coasts. Highs Sat in the u50s-around 60F N and NE to the l-60s S Lows Sat night in the u30s-l40s. except u40s along the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Sun/Mon ranging through the 60s.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 135 PM EDT Monday .

Mainly VFR conditions expected through 18Z TAF forecast period. A frontal boundary will be stalled just SSW of the FA through this evening . then begin to slowly pull back N late tonight and continue through Tue. NNE winds gradually become SE tonight then SSW Tue (remaining aob 10 kt). ISOLD/SCT SHRAs/tstms will continue to develop near/S of the boundary through this evening but are largely expected to stay SW of the TAF locations. ECG has the highest chance of seeing pcpn and have included VCTS from 20Z/06-00Z/07 OTW. SCT mid-level clouds.

The front lifts back north as a warm front late tonight-Tue . but may stall before reaching the Lower MD Ern Shore. A moist S-SW flow is expected following the warm FROPA. Near term guidance has been suggesting a LO PROB that sub-VFR ceilings are possible at some of the terminals Tuesday morning (mainly at RIC/SBY). In addition, ISOLD/SCT SHRAs/tstms may develop across the VA Piedmont Tue aftn before moving ESE late afternoon-evening. Dry/VFR Tue night at the VA/NC terminals. Showers/flight restrictions may persist at SBY from Tue-Tue night.

VFR conditions expected Wed-Thu. ISOLD/SCT SHRAs/tstms (and associated flight restrictions) are both Wed afternoon (as a weak upper level system crosses the area) and Thu (w/ a more substantial cold frontal passage).

MARINE. As of 355 PM EDT Monday .

Late this aftn, a weak cold front has pushed south of the NE NC waters. Winds were NNE 5-15 kt with isolated gusts near 18 kt. The only headline left is a SCA on the NE NC coastal waters (658) until 7 PM this evening, due to lingering 4-5 ft seas in long period swell. The front will wash out in NC this evening, then lift back N late tonight/Tue morning. Winds shift to the SE or S at less than 10 kt. Mainly sub-SCA conditions expected to continue from Tue into Thu morning, with slightly stronger westerly flow expected Wed. The greatest chance for SCA conditions will be late Thu through Fri, as NW winds usher a cooler airmass into the region behind a cold front.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.

SYNOPSIS . ALB/ERI NEAR TERM . ALB SHORT TERM . ALB/ERI LONG TERM . ALB AVIATION . ALB MARINE . TMG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 6 mi53 min NE 8.9 G 9.9 58°F 1015.4 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 7 mi41 min 56°F4 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 13 mi41 min 53°F4 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 23 mi65 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 65°F 59°F1015 hPa

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC6 mi36 minNE 610.00 miFair60°F50°F71%1015.2 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC12 mi16 minENE 1310.00 miFair62°F51°F70%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFFA

Wind History from FFA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW5SW3CalmN3CalmE3--S4CalmW6CalmCalmNE6
1 day agoN7N7N6CalmN3NE4NE4NE4NE4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmN5N6N4NE6N4NE3NE5NE4E5E4
2 days agoN3NE6N5N4N5CalmCalmN3N4N3NW4N3NW3N5N8
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Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:26 AM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:38 AM EDT     3.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:53 PM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:02 PM EDT     4.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.30.31.22.33.23.83.93.42.61.60.6-0.1-0.300.81.933.743.8320.9

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:26 AM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:39 AM EDT     3.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:56 PM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:07 PM EDT     4.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.40.112.13.23.83.93.52.71.60.5-0.3-0.5-0.30.51.62.83.743.83.22.10.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.