Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southern Shores, NC

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Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:23PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 12:22 PM EDT (16:22 UTC) Moonrise 8:06PMMoonset 5:29AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 958 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Rest of today..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds, decreasing to 4 seconds this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southern Shores, NC
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location: 36.1, -75.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 171325
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
925 am edt Wed jul 17 2019

Synopsis
High pressure remains off the southeast coast through the weekend.

A trough of low pressure will cross the region tonight and Thursday.

Otherwise, hot and humid weather will continue until Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 925 am edt Wednesday...

latest msas shows the shwrs along a weak trof having pushed
offshore with the sern ridge dominating. Meanwhile, a sfc trof
extends south across ind from the remnant low of barry. Temps
already beginning to soar thru the 80s and will be into the 90s
by noon.

High res models showing two separate areas where convection is
progged to develop today. First will be across sern va nern nc
where the hrrr and rap showing convection firing up along the
seabreeze left over boundaries shorty after 18z. Secondly,
will be convection that develops ahead of the sfc trof over the
blue ridge mid aftrn then tracks ese across the piedmont aftr
21z. SPC has most of the local area (except nc) in a marginal
svr risk (mainly pulse type storms for wet microbursts hail),
much like yesterday.

Combo of highs in the mid-upr 90s along with dew points in the
low-mid 70s results in heat index values btwn 105-109 along and
east of i95, 100-104 across the piedmont. Thus, current heat
advsry continues as is for now.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday
As of 500 am edt Wednesday...

hot conditions will be moving into the area for the rest of
this week and into this weekend. Today, temperatures will climb
into the upper 90s along i-95 and mid 90s elsewhere.

Dew points will also be in the mid to upper 70s, leading to
heat indices of 105-107 (mainly areas along and east of i-95,
including DELMARVA and NE nc). Showers tstms may pop-up along
the seabreeze for NE nc and hampton roads late in the morning to
early afternoon (pops 20-30%). Later in the afternoon, storms
will develop as the shortwave moves across the area. Highest
confidence for precip will be from richmond on northward, and md
eastern shore. Pw values will be greater than 2" across the
area, therefore storms will likely produce heavy rain. Tstms
will develop once again on Thursday as a trough remains in the
area. Temperatures won't be as hot with highs only in the mid
90s and lows in the lower 70s.

Friday and Saturday is when the excessive heat builds in. High
pressure aloft will build over the area as a sfc high off the
coast bring moisture up from the tropics. Highs will be in the
low 100s for the richmond metro and va piedmont and upper 90s to
near 100 elsewhere (low-mid 90s at immediate coast). These
temperatures combined with dewpoints in the 70s will give way
to heat indices of 110-115. An excessive heat watch may be
needed for fri-sun as this looks to be a prolong heatwave. In
addition, overnight lows will not provide much relief from the
heat. Lows will struggle to drop below 80, especially in the
urban area of the richmond metro and hampton roads.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 240 pm edt Tuesday...

not much to say (that hasn't already been conveyed) about the
upcoming heatwave Fri into early next week (mon). A typical mid
july summertime wx pattern persists through the extended
forecast period as (stagnant) hi pres sfc- aloft builds from the
se mid-atlantic states on W through the mid ms valley.

Confidence is very high right now that this will be the hottest
period of the summer so far and result in dangerous heat
indices. Mainly partly cloudy... Hot humid during the day... Very
warm humid at night through the period (w AOB climo diurnal
pops (blo 30%) - except a bit higher by mon). Highs Fri in the
90s... Then highs Sat and Sun mainly 95-101f - locally u80s-l90s
at the immediate coast each day. Heat effects will be cumulative
through the period as nighttime lows will avg 75-80f.

Heat advisories (heat indices 105-109f) and or excessive heat
warnings (heat indices 110f+) are likely Fri through next
weekend (dependent upon future dew point forecasts). Will
continue to highlight this potential in the hwo. Record highs
may be tough to reach but record high lows appear to be
attainable... See climate below.

A breakdown of the hot pattern is showing up on the extended
guidance Mon through Tue as the heat ridge weakens and a trough
aloft begins to amplify toward the ERN conus. Highs still in the
90s Mon W pops to 40-50% ahead of an approaching cold front.

Timing of that front completely through the fa remains uncertain
but it does appears that Tue will begin the cooldown in earnest
(w continued relatively high pops). Highs Tue in the u80s.

Aviation 13z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 705 am edt Wednesday...

vfr conditions noted across area terminals this morning. Sct-
bkn mid and high clouds with a ssw wind of 5-8kt to continue
early this morning through midday, increasing to 8-12kt out of
the SW by aftn, with some occasional gusts to ~15-18kt possible.

We do have the chc for some additional isolated to widely sct
aftn evening showers tstms this aftn, mainly over SE sections
from phf orf ecg.

Outlook: very similar setup on thu, with a chance for additional
sct showers and storms Thursday aftn evening, dropping back to
20% or less Friday through Sunday. Predominate conditions will
remainVFR at terminals, with brief flight restrictions (mainly
due to lowered vsby) with any showers tstms.

Marine
As of 430 am edt Wednesday...

early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered well off the mid
atlc coast, while a trough of low pressure was pushing thru the oh
and tn valleys. This was resulting SW winds 5-15 kt over the waters
with waves and seas 1-2 ft.

The trough of low pressure will slide eastward toward the area this
aftn into tonight. This will tighten the gradient a bit and kick ssw
winds up to 10 to 15 kt in the ches bay, and 15 to 20 kt in the
coastal waters. This will build waves to 2 ft in the ches bay, and
seas to 3-4 ft on the coastal waters.

The winds will begin to relax to 5 to around 10 kt on the bay and
rivers, and 10 to 15 kt on the ocean waters on thu, as the trough of
low pressure slides over the area. This pattern will continue into
fri, allowing for a continued weakening of the winds to 5-10 kt.

But, once the weak trough breaks down, the bermuda high will once
again begin to build into the region and ssw flow will again
strengthen to 10-15 kt over most of the waters for Fri night thru
sun.

Climate
Upcoming heatwave may challenge or break record highs and or
record high lows (esp from Fri through sun).

Richmond record high record high low
wed (7 17) 100 1980 76 2005
thu (7 18) 101 1977 77 2005
fri (7 19) 101 1942 77 2013
sat (7 20) 103 1930 78 2013
sun (7 21) 104 1930 77 1930
mon (7 22) 103 1952 79 2011
norfolk record high record high low
wed (7 17) 100 1887 80 1983
thu (7 18) 104 1942 79 1995
fri (7 19) 101 1942 84 1942
sat (7 20) 102 1942 79 1977
sun (7 21) 101 1926 80 1983
mon (7 22) 102 2011 82 2011
salisbury record high record high low
wed (7 17) 99 2012 80 1983
thu (7 18) 100 2012 78 2012
fri (7 19) 99 1977 78 2013
sat (7 20) 104 1930 83 2013
sun (7 21) 106 1930 77 2017
mon (7 22) 104 1930 80 2011
elizabeth city record high record high low
wed (7 17) 99 1942 78 1995
thu (7 18) 107 1942 79 2012
fri (7 19) 105 1942 80 2012
sat (7 20) 104 1942 78 2012
sun (7 21) 102 1987 79 1983
mon (7 22) 104 1952 79 2011

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for mdz021>024.

Nc... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz012>017-
030>032.

Va... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for vaz064-075>090-
092-093-095>100-511>525.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mpr
short term... Alb cp
long term... Alb
aviation... Ajz mam
marine... Ess tmg
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 6 mi52 min SSW 9.9 G 13 87°F 72°F1017.7 hPa
FRFN7 6 mi142 min 1 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 7 mi22 min 82°F1 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 13 mi22 min 83°F1 ft
44086 17 mi27 min 83°F2 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 23 mi52 min SSW 14 G 17 1018.5 hPa
44095 31 mi36 min 82°F2 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC6 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair89°F75°F64%1017.9 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC12 mi42 minWSW 1010.00 miFair89°F75°F63%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from FFA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE4S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmSW3SW5SW4SW4SW5SW4CalmSW3CalmCalmS3SW5SW6
1 day agoN5N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4N3CalmN4

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
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Wed -- 02:38 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:32 AM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:30 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:50 PM EDT     3.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.60.10.10.41.11.92.73.13.12.72.11.30.60.20.20.61.42.233.63.73.42.8

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:48 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:41 AM EDT     2.98 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:32 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:55 PM EDT     3.90 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.60.70.20.10.411.82.52.932.72.21.40.70.30.30.61.32.23.13.73.93.73.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.