Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Southern Shores, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 4:51PM Sunday December 8, 2019 8:35 AM EST (13:35 UTC) Moonrise 2:49PMMoonset 3:16AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 622 Am Est Sun Dec 8 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Thursday evening...
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, except 5 to 7 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft. A chance of rain.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southern Shores, NC
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location: 36.1, -75.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 081116 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 616 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure moves off the New England coast today. A weak area of low pressure moves north across the Mid Atlantic region Monday. A stronger area of low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes late Monday and into eastern Canada Tuesday. The trailing strong cold front crosses the local area Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure builds in for the mid week period.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 615 AM EST Sunday .

Latest MSAS has high pressure moving east of Long Island. After a cold/frosty start, high/mid level clouds will increase this aftrn ahead of a weak area of low pres dvlpng along the Carolina coast. Highs upr 40s NW to mid 50s SE.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 330 AM EST Sunday .

Models move the wave of low pres north across the NC coastal plain late tonite then nne across the Virginia coastal plain and Delmarva Mon. A decent slug of moisture will overspread the area with the best lift progged btwn 06Z-18Z Mon. Thus, highest PoPs will be within this time range.

For tonite, chc eve PoPs across the srn half of the fa as the initial moisture apprchs from the south, then high chc/likely PoPs after midnite (highest along and E of I95). Data also suggests an insitu-wedge across the nwrn most zones. Lows from the upr 30s NW to near 50 SE. Highest PoPs Mon morn, lowering in the aftrn as a punch of drier air pushes into the sern sections of the fa. Milder due to a south wind flow (and psbly some late day BINOVC across the se). Highs mid 50s NW (where it stays OVC due to the lingering low level wedge), to the upr 60s se.

SW flow in place Mon nite with not much support for widespread pcpn. However, enuf low level moisture to keep at least low chc PoPs in the grids attm (highest north). Mild with not much of a temp drop expected due to the srly wind flow. Lows mid 50s NW to arnd 60 SE.

Models continue to slow down the timing of the pcpn Tue ahead of the apprchg cold front Tue nite. Latest data suggests little support for pcpn thru 18Z with PoPs slowly overspreading the local area late. Thus, adjusted the grids with this trend in mind. What this does is allow for an unseasonably warm day (not quite to record levels, see CLI section below) with partial sun psbl across the east and a breezy sw wind. Highs upr 60s NW to mid 70s SE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 330 AM EST Sunday .

The cold front crosses the area Tuesday night with rain chances continuing into early Wednesday afternoon before drier air filters into the region. Lows will fall into the mid-upr 30s across the nrn zones to low-mid 40s SE. Models show thicknesses crashing behind the fropa, but with lows in the mid-upr 30s, a rain/wet snow mix is possible across the nrn zones erly Wed before the pcpn ends.

High pressure builds in with decreasing clouds by Wednesday afternoon/evening, high temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s. Dry air and clearing skies Wednesday night will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 20s NW to right around 30 degrees SE.

Models begin to diverge significantly on Thursday with the GFS bringing a shortwave trough across the region Thursday afternoon. The ECMWF and CMC are generally farther south and much slower with the shortwave. Strong (1040+mb) surface high pressure will ridge southwest into the area on Thursday with northeasterly winds keeping high temps only in the upper 30s and low 40s. Will side with the slower EC/CMC solution and keep the forecast dry on Thursday. Cold again Thursday night, low to mid 20s along and west of I-95 with upper 20s and low 30s to the east. Upper air pattern differences continue among the global models for the late week period but there is general agreement with respect to another wet period for next weekend. Will show increasing PoPs late Friday into Saturday with temperatures moderating a bit due to increased moisture/cloud cover.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 615 AM EST Sunday .

VFR conditions continue thru this eve as high pressure moves off the New England coast. Conditions quickly deteriorate to MVFR after midnite (with lcl IFR late ivof RIC) as rain/fog overspread the area due to low pressure moving up the Mid Atlantic coastal plain. SSE winds less than 10 kts today, then lgt/vrbl tonite.

OUTLOOK . Periods of lower CIGS/VSBYS in both rain/shwrs are likely thru Tues nite, as low pressure tracks well to our NW. The trailing cold front will cross the area Tues nite. High pressure builds into the area for the mid week period.

MARINE. As of 330 AM EST Sunday .

High pressure over NE will slide off the northeast coast today. Expect easterly winds locally, 5-10 kts in the bay and 10-15 kts for the coastal waters. Waves in the bay 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft.

On Monday a warm front will lift north across the area and the flow becomes southerly. Winds increase to 10-15 kts in the bay and 15-20 kts for the coastal waters. Guidance has been consistent showing seas coming up quickly. Expect seas to build to 4-7 ft in the coastal waters, and 2-3 ft waves in the bay, with around 4 ft at the mouth of the bay. While winds will initially be borderline SCA especially in the bay, seas will likely meet criteria as early as Monday morning.

Southerly flow and SCA criteria winds/seas continue on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front that will cross the area waters late Tuesday night. Waves in the bay on Tuesday 2-4 ft with 4-5 ft at the mouth of the bay. Seas 5-8 ft northern coastal waters and 4-7 ft southern coastal waters. Winds will shift to the NW in the wake of the cold front passage with SCA conditions likely continuing into Wednesday.

CLIMATE. Record highs for 12/10:

RIC . 79 in 2007 ORF . 78 in 2007 SBY . 73 in 1966 ECG . 78 in 2007

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . MPR SHORT TERM . MPR LONG TERM . MPR/RHR AVIATION . MPR MARINE . CMF CLIMATE . MPR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 6 mi65 min ENE 19 G 21 49°F 1030.4 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 7 mi35 min 53°F4 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 13 mi35 min 54°F4 ft
44086 17 mi40 min 55°F5 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 23 mi65 min NE 15 G 20 51°F 51°F1029.8 hPa
44095 31 mi49 min 54°F5 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC6 mi40 minno data10.00 miFair49°F37°F66%1030.5 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC12 mi40 minE 13 G 1810.00 miFair49°F38°F68%1030.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFFA

Wind History from FFA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:15 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:14 AM EST     3.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:37 AM EST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:26 PM EST     2.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:33 PM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.82.53.13.33.22.82.21.50.90.50.50.81.422.62.92.92.51.91.20.60.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:16 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:27 AM EST     3.40 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:48 AM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:36 PM EST     2.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:36 PM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.62.43.13.43.43.12.51.710.60.50.71.11.82.52.82.92.62.11.40.70.20.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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