Southern Shores, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Southern Shores, NC

May 18, 2024 1:16 AM EDT (05:16 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM
Moonrise 2:36 PM   Moonset 2:19 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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AMZ231 Croatan And Roanoke Sounds- 1000 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024

Overnight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms late.

Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.

Sat night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Sun - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves choppy. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.

Sun night - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves choppy. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.

Mon - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves choppy.

Mon night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves choppy.

Tue - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.

Tue night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight.

Wed - N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon.

Wed night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 1021 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024

Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - A storm system will affect the area this weekend with an increased chance and coverage of showers and Thunderstorms. The associated cold frontal passage of the storm system will occur late in the weekend followed by a stronger push of high pressure that could require an sca Mon into Tue.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southern Shores, NC
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 180155 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 955 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
Showers become widespread across the piedmont later this evening, and slowly shift east overnight, remaining likely through most of Saturday. The widespread rain will shift south later Saturday night into Sunday, though at least light rain or drizzle will still be possible. Dry weather returns Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 955 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Rain becomes more widespread late tonight and overnight, from W to E (reaching the coast between 06-12Z). Locally heavy rainfall is possible (mainly west). A Flood Watch is in place over portions of the Piedmont.

- Showers continue Saturday with below normal high temperatures, additional heavy rain possible.

Latest analysis continues to show 1020+mb Sfc high pressure centered across Atlantic Canada into northern New England, ridging into the northern mid-Atlantic. A weak quasi-stationary boundary remains draped from NW to SE across south central VA into north central and eastern NC. 00z PW values have increased to 1.5 to 1.7" over the southern third of the area in advance of a southern stream shortwave lifting out of the mid-south late this evening into the overnight.

Showers are becoming more widespread across the piedmont, and will push east to the I-95 corridor in the next few hours, reaching the coast late tonight. PWs increase to 1.6-1.8" overnight. T-storm potential is minimal and should be confined mainly W of I-95 and along and S of route 460 through 06-087z or so, removed from the cooler/less stable marine airmass closer to the coast. Relatively mild tonight with lows around 60F, except in the low- mid 50s on the eastern shore. Have added Mecklenburg County VA to the Flood Watch, which remains in effect for much of our piedmont counties W-SW of RIC metro.

00z CAMs are trending towards higher coverage and QPF remaining across these areas in the piedmont just ahead of the boundary overnight. This matches the 12z/17 HRRR PoPs and probability matched mean QPF fields. Locally heavy rainfall is likely in spots. WPC has a slight ERO just NW of our wrn CWA line, with a marginal across our W/NW counties. As the boundary slowly lifts E-NE early Saturday, the axis of heavier rain looks to also slowly shift eastward near and after sunrise Saturday, with some signal for heavy rainfall also across srn portions of the area with some elevated instability also sliding through.

Weak sfc low pressure tracks just S of the area Sat afternoon.
While moist WSW flow aloft and deep lift continues over the region in advance of the approaching upper-level system, coverage of rainfall may be hit or miss later Saturday morning into early/mid aftn as earlier day rain/convection limits any aftn destabilization. Current thinking is most of the heavier showers and storms stay to our W or SW, though cannot rule out a few storms clipping our SW counties. High temps Sat will remain below normal w/ the onshore flow and are in the 60s N to low 70s over the far south. The vast majority of the QPF falls tonight through Saturday and totals of 0.25-0.50" are expected on the eastern shore, 0.50-1.00" over most of the rest of the CWA, with 1.00-1.50" (local amounts in excess of 2.00" possible)
in the piedmont. The Flood watch remains in effect for portions of the VA Piedmont. Some heavy rainfall and 1-2" is possible over areas w/ low 3- and 6-hr flash flood guidance (where 3-5" of rain fell earlier this week). Did not expand the Watch given a general downward trend in QPF and with a lot of uncertainty/spread in the HRRR means. For instance, in areas with a median amount of 1.00-1.50" the 25th percentile has less than 0.75".

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- The more widespread rain and any additional heavy rain threat shifts S of the area after Sat evening.

- Dreary weather and a chc for additional showers are expected Sunday across the south, with drier WX later over the north.
High temperatures will remain below normal.

the 12Z/17 models generally show high pressure to north slowly building south Sat night through Sunday, as sfc low pressure moves east across the Carolinas. Still enough upper level support for likely PoPs south and chc PoPs elsewhere Sat night, with some additional moderate to locally heavy rainfall possible over far southern VA and NE NC. By Sunday, PWATs drop off to <1.50" even in the south, with only the far southern areas expected to see 0.10" or more of additional QPF. Total QPF for this system will average 0.50"-1.00" over much of the CWA, with 1.00-1.50" and locally higher amounts possible in the piedmont and over extreme SE VA and NE NC (as some additional higher QPF affects SE VA/NE NC into Sat night).

Sunday PoPs have been lowered to 40-50% in NC, and to 15-30% elsewhere. Note that even with this continued trend to a drier solution for Sunday, it will still be relatively unpleasant with increasing NE winds, cloudy skies, and highs only in the 60s.
There could be some partial clearing over the northern 1/2 of the CWA Sun aftn so highs may reach to around 70F. Partly cloudy NW to mostly cloudy SE Sun night with lows in the 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 350 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures remain below normal Monday with mostly cloudy skies along the coast.

- Dry/sensible weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures trending much warmer. A chance for aftn storms Thu.

Low pressure gradually shifts offshore Monday, though an additional low may develop S of the upper feature offshore. High pressure also nudges south into the Mid-Atlantic. NE flow is still expected (breeziest across southern coastal areas), keeping temperatures below normal across the SE, and slight below normal elsewhere.
The low levels dry out enough well inland, allowing temperatures to warm into the mid 70s. Upper 60s are expected along the coast. The majority of the area stays dry with just a slight chc of shower along the SE coast. Lows Mon night in the 50s with some upper 40s possible well inland.

Stacked sfc and upper low now gets pushed offshore rather quickly Mon night, with upper level ridging moving in by Tue. As such, have trended the forecast warmer for Tue/Wed, with highs Tue now in the upper 70s/lower 80s inland and in the low-mid 70s at the coast. The warming trend continues Wed into Thu with mid/upper 80s making a comeback. There is decent agreement among the global models that a cold front will cross the area later Thursday afternoon. Will have a chc of showers and storms over most of the area. A little cooler behind the front to end the week. Overnight lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s for the remainder of the week.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 755 PM EDT Friday...

Onshore flow has led to low clouds pushing inland today into this evening, with widespread MVFR CIGs to begin the 00z TAF period. Still appears that CIGs briefly rise over the next few hours, with short-lived VFR conditions returning in the next few hours before falling back into MVFR after midnight. E-NE winds 5-10 kt prevail, with scattered to numerous rain showers pushing into the region from the W-SW later this evening into the overnight. Flight restrictions are likely in both CIGs and VSBY, with heavy rain possible.

Outlook: A slow moving low pressure system will bring showers, and degraded flight conditions Saturday, with at least a chance for showers (and flight restrictions likely) into Sunday.
Mainly dry by Sun afternoon and night with a few lingering showers in the SE. Dry Mon-Tue.

MARINE
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Sub SCA conditions expected this evening and overnight.

- Increasing NE wind and waves for the weekend. Small craft advisory conditions are expected over the entire marine area later Saturday and through SUnday. Wind gusts to 20 to 25 kt and seas building to 4 to 7 feet.

Weak high pressure is centered along the coast from the Carolinas to New England. The wind was generally NE at or below 15kt this afternoon, with seas 3-4ft and waves in the Bay mainly 1-2ft. An area of weak low pressure will slowly approach from the west Saturday as high pressure remains over New England resulting in a tightening pressure gradient late Sat into Sun. The wind will remain NE overnight tonight around 5-10kt, becoming E to SE 5-10 kt by morning. E winds increase to 10-15kt through the morning hours with 15 kt potentially gusting to 20 kt mid to late Saturday afternoon. Seas will mainly be 3-4ft tonight into Saturday then build late Saturday into Sunday.

Low pressure becomes more organized off the Carolina coast Saturday night into Sunday, before very slowly pulling away from the coast through Monday. Meanwhile, high pressure slowly builds in from the N. A NE wind is expected to range from 15-20kt with gusts to 25 kt (strongest for the lower Bay and ocean) with seas building to 4-5ft N and 5-6ft S and 3- 5ft waves in the mouth of the Bay.
SCAs are likely during this time period for the lower Bay/ocean, with less confidence of SCA conditions elsewhere.
High pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast.

HYDROLOGY
As of 320 PM EDT Friday...

Flood Warnings remain in effect for Nottoway River near Stony Creek for minor flooding. Lawrenceville crested last night and has now fallen below flood stage. Stony Creek remains in flood and is expected to crest tonight. See FLSAKQ for additional information.

While uncertainty remains with respect to rainfall amounts and exact placement over the weekend, median expected amounts are 1.00-1.50" range across area basins over the weekend. Latest forecasts indicate these amounts will lead to a secondary rise in water level late in the weekend/early next week, but that most places stay just below Minor Flood thresholds, though will need to monitor as a slight over-performance would lead to additional flooding.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the upper Bay and portions of the Northern Neck for the high tide this evening.
Two strong flood tides with very weak ebbing is resulting in a piling up of water from Windmill Point north. Minor tidal flooding is likely at Lewisetta and Bishops Head this evening.
Water levels should drop with stronger ebbing expected overnight before the Saturday morning high tide.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ021.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ075-077.
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for VAZ048-060-061- 065>068-509.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 6 mi47 min NNE 7G8 59°F 29.97
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 7 mi51 min 65°F3 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 13 mi47 min 58°F 60°F3 ft
44086 17 mi51 min 59°F4 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 23 mi47 min NNE 4.1G8 58°F 67°F30.00
44095 31 mi51 min 58°F4 ft
41082 33 mi137 min N 7.8 56°F 57°F29.97
44079 47 mi137 min N 9.7 55°F 56°F29.96


Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KFFA FIRST FLIGHT,NC 6 sm6 minNE 0310 smClear57°F55°F94%29.95
KMQI DARE COUNTY RGNL,NC 12 sm11 minNE 0710 smClear59°F55°F88%29.97
Link to 5 minute data for KFFA


Wind History from FFA
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
   
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
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Fri -- 02:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:32 AM EDT     2.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:47 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:03 PM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:23 PM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
1.6
1
am
2.1
2
am
2.6
3
am
2.8
4
am
2.8
5
am
2.6
6
am
2.1
7
am
1.6
8
am
1.1
9
am
0.7
10
am
0.7
11
am
0.9
12
pm
1.3
1
pm
1.9
2
pm
2.5
3
pm
2.9
4
pm
3.1
5
pm
3
6
pm
2.6
7
pm
2.1
8
pm
1.5
9
pm
1
10
pm
0.7
11
pm
0.7


Tide / Current for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina (2)
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Duck Pier
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Fri -- 02:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:36 AM EDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:47 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:07 PM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:23 PM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina (2), Tide feet
12
am
1.5
1
am
2.1
2
am
2.5
3
am
2.8
4
am
2.9
5
am
2.6
6
am
2.2
7
am
1.6
8
am
1.1
9
am
0.7
10
am
0.6
11
am
0.8
12
pm
1.3
1
pm
1.9
2
pm
2.5
3
pm
2.9
4
pm
3.1
5
pm
3
6
pm
2.6
7
pm
2.1
8
pm
1.5
9
pm
0.9
10
pm
0.7
11
pm
0.7


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of east us   
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Wakefield, VA,




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