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FXUS64 KOHX 091202 AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 602 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1240 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Already we are seeing scattered showers develop on radar as the first batch of deeper moisture gets pushed into Middle Tennessee.
At 06Z, a 1002 mb surface low was situated a little north of STL with a cold front trailing south-southwestward into the Ozarks.
Already, dew points across Middle Tennessee are mostly in the low to mid 50s, so don't look for temperatures to drop off much more.
Low-level winds have strengthened in advance of the cold front.
The 00Z sounding from OHX showed 850 mb winds of 32 kts, and we expect 850 mb winds to increase to ~40 kts in advance of the cold front later today. Already, the new day 1 outlook from the SPC has expanded the slight risk to include all of Middle Tennessee.
The cold front will still be undergoing frontogenesis when it enters Middle Tennessee during the early afternoon. Moisture accompanying the front will be much greater by the time the surface boundary reaches the Cumberland Plateau during the evening, which is why the QPF is greatest there. At this time, the primary threat remains damaging straight-line winds. The strongest storms are likely to occur along or just ahead of the surface boundary, although the atmospheric models are showing much greater CAPE than 24 hrs. ago. Therefore, we have greater potential for large hail and isolated tornadoes than previously thought. (According to the latest SPC discussion, the greatest tornado potential is across southern Middle Tennessee.) So we certainly cannot rule out an isolated tornado or two this afternoon and evening. However, if storms ultimately develop behind the surface boundary, this will greatly limit the tornado potential. So there is that bit of uncertainty, especially while the surface boundary is still undergoing frontogenesis. Because the front makes such a hasty exit -- it should cross the Cumberland Plateau around 06Z -- the potential for snow at the end is greatly reduced. The surface low tracks so far to our north that there won't be any wrap-around here. So there may be a few flakes at higher elevations, but it appears that the precipitation will exit the mid state before freezing temperatures arrive.
Sunday is going to be a cold, blustery day.

LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1240 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Temperatures Monday morning and again Tuesday morning will end up in the 20s areawide. And several locations will wake up to freezing temperatures again Wednesday morning. However, we'll be back above climatological normals by the end of the week. The next chance of rain won't arrive until Friday night or Saturday.
Indeed, another active weather system looks to spoil next weekend just like this one.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Expect several admendments thru 10/12Z per flucuation in forecast wx elements at each mid state terminal. Although certainly tstms could occur outside given times, went with best 3 hr window at terminal for tstm impacts. Generally MVFR ceilings with IFR vsbys during best 3 hr window with mdt rain. Although confidence in specific forecasting uncertainties led not not mentioning, if strong/svr tstms develop vcnty/terminals, gusts to 50kts possible along with large hail that would impact specific terminal location operations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 67 40 46 28 / 80 90 10 0 Clarksville 66 37 43 26 / 90 60 0 0 Crossville 60 36 46 23 / 70 100 60 10 Columbia 67 38 46 25 / 80 90 10 0 Cookeville 65 38 44 25 / 70 100 50 10 Jamestown 62 37 44 25 / 60 100 60 10 Lawrenceburg 67 39 46 25 / 80 100 20 0 Murfreesboro 68 38 46 24 / 80 100 20 0 Waverly 66 36 43 26 / 90 60 0 0

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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