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FXUS64 KTSA 101630 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1030 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New SHORT TERM

SHORT TERM
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1030 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Unseasonably cool, but pleasant, conditions will persist today under mostly sunny skies. High temperatures will warm up into the lower 50s/upper 40s this afternoon. Surface ridge axis will begin to shift east of the area through the day and winds will gradually turn southerly late this afternoon or early this evening.
Significant updates are not anticipated at this time.

Mejia

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 246 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Expect another chilly night tonight as most locations fall near or below 30 degrees. Otherwise, several days of dry and uneventful weather are in store under dry NW flow aloft. By Wednesday, elevated moisture will begin to work its way back north as an upper low digs into the desert SW. While lower level moisture recovery looks minimal, could still see some low rain chances expand over western portions of the area Wednesday... with better rain chances suggested west of the FA. The low then shifts east/ southeast into the southern plains late this week with additional low precip chances spreading across the CWA. The track of this low remains uncertain, and a more southern track could reduce overall precip potential for our area. For now, kept with low PoPs offered by the NBM until better model consensus arrives.
Temperatures will remain near to slightly above average through the period with generally light winds. Expect mostly clear skies early this week, then increasing clouds by mid week with the approach of the aforementioned weather system.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites through the valid period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 50 31 58 33 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 51 29 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 51 30 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 51 25 57 28 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 49 27 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 46 30 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 49 30 57 33 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 47 29 55 31 / 0 0 0 0 F10 50 31 58 33 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 51 30 58 32 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.

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