Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ballou, OK

SHORT TERM
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 920 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Scattered showers and isolated storms continue to fester across the local region within broad fetch of 30-40kt low level jet.
Cluster of severe storms continues to evolve across SW OK and will be a focus over the next several hours. 00z regional soundings sampled persistent low level capping with very steep lapse rates aloft. This inhibition was underforecast with earlier day short term guidance however the idea of stronger cap strength seems to be more resolved in the latest data. Previous scenarios of sfc based storms spreading into E OK now seems less likely. However the remnant MCV from the storm cluster to the southwest will pass through the region overnight and lift atop the sfc inversion will have access to the favorable lapse rates and additional storms could still develop with a few severe storms possible. Also, synoptic scale lift arrives nearer NE OK late tonight and into early day Tuesday and storms are expected to develop and expand along the associated cold front. Updated forecast will continue to refine overnight precip chances with lows in line with guidance.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

The weather pattern remains active through Thursday as a surface cold front moves into the northern portions of the area on Tuesday and stalls out across the area as we move into Wednesday. With an active southwesterly flow overhead, the surface boundary is likely to provide the focus for several rounds of showers and storms mid-week. The last round of showers and storms is expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning as an upper level low moves out of the Southwest and across the Plains. Severe weather will be possible Tuesday in the vicinity of the frontal boundary with damaging winds and large hail the main concern. However, a non-zero tornado threat continues. The severe weather threat lessens as we move into Wednesday. Heavy rainfall and the associated flooding will also be of concern with 2 to 4 inches of rain common across the area with upwards of 7 inches possible in a few locations. This will likely cause flooding of low lying areas and will likely result in river flooding as well.

Additional chances of showers/storms are expected Thursday night/Friday morning as an upper level shortwave grazes the area. As moisture returns over the weekend, the potential for a few more showers and storms will return.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Current conditions reflect VFR conditions across the area, and this should continue for a good part of tonight aside from storm influences. A small cluster of elevated showers and storms could briefly impact NW AR TAFs over the next 1-2 hours, then will see increasing probability across eastern OK after 02z. The overall trend should eventually be toward increased coverage in precip across NE OK by early Tuesday morning with MVFR conditions becoming more prevalent after 12z. High level of uncertainty as to how far south and east these conditions will spread Tuesday and have kept forecast as VFR for now.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 64 74 61 73 / 60 80 80 90 FSM 69 84 66 81 / 50 50 50 70 MLC 67 81 63 75 / 60 60 60 90 BVO 59 70 57 72 / 60 80 90 90 FYV 65 80 61 78 / 50 70 60 70 BYV 67 77 61 76 / 50 70 60 70 MKO 65 77 61 73 / 60 70 70 90 MIO 62 71 61 71 / 50 80 90 90 F10 65 76 61 72 / 70 80 80 100 HHW 68 82 64 76 / 30 30 40 90

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Tuesday through Thursday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Tuesday through Thursday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.