Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ballou, OK
September 23, 2023 8:27 AM CDT (13:27 UTC)
Sunrise 7:07AM Sunset 7:17PM Moonrise 2:46PM Moonset 12:00AM
FXUS64 KTSA 231136 AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 636 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Low level moisture will continue to lift north into the area today ahead of an approaching upper level storm system. Strong boundary layer heating will likely lead to a very unstable air-mass to develop across much of the area by late afternoon with limited CIN. As upper low shifts east into the northern Plains, a mid/upper level jet streak will overspread the region with strong diffluent flow aloft. Strong to severe thunderstorm are expected to rapidly develop near approaching cold front across far northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon. Strong deep layer shear of 40-50 kts coupled with MLCAPE values in 2500-3000 J/kg range suggest a few discrete supercells will be possible initially with all hazards possible, including very large hail and at least a limited tornado threat. Storms will likely evolve into one or more bow segments/clusters as cold pool develops with convection likely growing upscale into a MCS by late evening into the overnight hours.
In addition to the severe threat, very heavy rainfall is expected with PWATs climbing to around 2.0 inches. With the slow storm motions expected and moist antecedent soil conditions from previous rainfall, localized flooding will be likely. A flood watch will be issued for portions of eastern Oklahoma, generally east of Highway 75 extending into far northwest Arkansas. It's possible a few counties may need to be added to the flood watch but this area is currently the most susceptible to excessive runoff. Widespread 2-3 inches of rain is likely over much of region with locally 5 to 6 inches possible. Storms are expected to shift south into southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas late tonight into Sunday morning with a continued flooding threat.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
A secondary mid/upper level wave will shift into the southern Plains during the day Sunday with another round of strong to severe storms across southeast Oklahoma along/south of cold front. Very heavy rainfall will again be possible with these storms and the flood watch will likely need to be extended in time for portions of southeast Oklahoma, possibly extending into west-central Arkansas.
It's possible a few locations in southeast Oklahoma could see both rounds of heavy rainfall which would cause more significant flooding. The severe/heavy rainfall threat is expected to shift south into the ArkLaTx region late Sunday night.
Weak high pressure at the surface will build into the area for the early to middle part of the work week with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the extended periods. A slow warming trend is also forecast as ridging aloft lifts north into the central/southern Plains.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
VFR conditions will prevail for the first half of the forecast period. Attention turns to thunderstorm potential, some of which will likely be strong or severe, initially across northeast OK in the 22-00z time frame. Storms will carry potential for strong and gusty winds with MVFR conditions as they progress SE, reaching SE OK/NW AR 03-06z most likely. More widespread MVFR conditions may develop late in the period across northeast OK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 89 69 81 64 / 40 90 30 20 FSM 91 71 84 68 / 10 90 70 50 MLC 91 70 84 65 / 20 80 60 50 BVO 89 65 81 58 / 50 80 30 10 FYV 88 65 81 61 / 20 90 60 30 BYV 87 66 80 61 / 10 90 60 30 MKO 89 68 81 64 / 20 90 50 30 MIO 88 66 80 60 / 40 90 30 10 F10 89 67 81 63 / 20 80 50 40 HHW 93 70 87 67 / 20 70 70 70
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Flood Watch from 6 PM CDT this evening through Sunday morning for OKZ049-055>058-060>063-067>076.
AR...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 636 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Low level moisture will continue to lift north into the area today ahead of an approaching upper level storm system. Strong boundary layer heating will likely lead to a very unstable air-mass to develop across much of the area by late afternoon with limited CIN. As upper low shifts east into the northern Plains, a mid/upper level jet streak will overspread the region with strong diffluent flow aloft. Strong to severe thunderstorm are expected to rapidly develop near approaching cold front across far northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon. Strong deep layer shear of 40-50 kts coupled with MLCAPE values in 2500-3000 J/kg range suggest a few discrete supercells will be possible initially with all hazards possible, including very large hail and at least a limited tornado threat. Storms will likely evolve into one or more bow segments/clusters as cold pool develops with convection likely growing upscale into a MCS by late evening into the overnight hours.
In addition to the severe threat, very heavy rainfall is expected with PWATs climbing to around 2.0 inches. With the slow storm motions expected and moist antecedent soil conditions from previous rainfall, localized flooding will be likely. A flood watch will be issued for portions of eastern Oklahoma, generally east of Highway 75 extending into far northwest Arkansas. It's possible a few counties may need to be added to the flood watch but this area is currently the most susceptible to excessive runoff. Widespread 2-3 inches of rain is likely over much of region with locally 5 to 6 inches possible. Storms are expected to shift south into southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas late tonight into Sunday morning with a continued flooding threat.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
A secondary mid/upper level wave will shift into the southern Plains during the day Sunday with another round of strong to severe storms across southeast Oklahoma along/south of cold front. Very heavy rainfall will again be possible with these storms and the flood watch will likely need to be extended in time for portions of southeast Oklahoma, possibly extending into west-central Arkansas.
It's possible a few locations in southeast Oklahoma could see both rounds of heavy rainfall which would cause more significant flooding. The severe/heavy rainfall threat is expected to shift south into the ArkLaTx region late Sunday night.
Weak high pressure at the surface will build into the area for the early to middle part of the work week with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the extended periods. A slow warming trend is also forecast as ridging aloft lifts north into the central/southern Plains.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
VFR conditions will prevail for the first half of the forecast period. Attention turns to thunderstorm potential, some of which will likely be strong or severe, initially across northeast OK in the 22-00z time frame. Storms will carry potential for strong and gusty winds with MVFR conditions as they progress SE, reaching SE OK/NW AR 03-06z most likely. More widespread MVFR conditions may develop late in the period across northeast OK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 89 69 81 64 / 40 90 30 20 FSM 91 71 84 68 / 10 90 70 50 MLC 91 70 84 65 / 20 80 60 50 BVO 89 65 81 58 / 50 80 30 10 FYV 88 65 81 61 / 20 90 60 30 BYV 87 66 80 61 / 10 90 60 30 MKO 89 68 81 64 / 20 90 50 30 MIO 88 66 80 60 / 40 90 30 10 F10 89 67 81 63 / 20 80 50 40 HHW 93 70 87 67 / 20 70 70 70
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Flood Watch from 6 PM CDT this evening through Sunday morning for OKZ049-055>058-060>063-067>076.
AR...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KTQH TAHLEQUAH MUNI,OK | 18 sm | 12 min | SE 09 | 10 sm | -- | 73°F | 66°F | 78% | 29.93 | |
| KGCM CLAREMORE RGNL,OK | 19 sm | 12 min | SSE 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 29.88 |
Wind History from TQH
(wind in knots)
Tulsa, OK,
Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE