Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ballou, OK
July 3, 2024 12:34 AM CDT (05:34 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:06 AM Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 2:39 AM Moonset 6:07 PM |
FXUS64 KTSA 030255 AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 955 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 955 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing late this evening along a boundary extending from NW OK to SE KS... most notably just south of the OK-KS border in N-Central OK. These storms are generally moving eastward and are expected to impact mainly portions of Osage/ Pawnee counties through early tonight. Then there is a low chance of additional shower and storm development along this boundary overnight tonight as it sags south... mainly northwest of I-44 in NE OK. While severe weather is not expected, moderate DCAPE has allowed storms this evening to produce strong outflow winds and some localized stronger gusts cannot be ruled out in our area tonight. Otherwise, have allowed heat headlines to expire this evening with only some minor edits to PoP, sky, & temperature grids. Remainder of the forecast is in good shape at this time.
SHORT TERM
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for most of the area, with Heat Advisories in effect for a small portion of far northeast OK and northwest AR. Afternoon heat indices of 105-115F are expected. A breezy southerly wind will continue through this evening with gusts of 15-25 mph. A few showers and thunderstorms, or perhaps just outflow from distant storms, may move into far northeast OK near the KS border this evening and overnight, but otherwise dry conditions will prevail. Low temperatures will still be quite mild, generally in the mid 70s to around 80 F.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A boundary will remain mostly stationary in northeast OK or southern KS Wednesday, allowing for southerly warm/moist advection to continue. This will maintain the unusually hot airmass in place.
Dewpoints were increased above the NBM through much of the period. Another round of Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect for Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon or evening, CAMs indicate fairly large instability but with limited wind shear. There may be just enough lift along the boundary to generate scattered thunderstorms. Assuming this does occur, these storms would be cold pool dominated and the main hazards would be brief heavy rain and strong gusty winds. Independence Day (Thursday) will feature more of the same with additional hot and humid weather. By Thursday evening, however, a cold front will overtake the stalled boundary across northeast OK. This will likely result in sufficient lift for more widespread convective initiation. With PWAT values near 2", weak steering flow, and minimal shear, areas of heavy rain and strong gusty winds will develop but other severe hazards are unlikely. As these storms develop a surface cold pool, it will force the effective frontal boundary south during the evening and overnight hours. Increased Pops during this period to 40-60%.
For most areas, Friday will be much cooler and drier with highs falling into the upper 80s with dewpoints into the 60s. Some portions of southeast OK, where the front will be slower to clear, may see a few additional storms during the first half of the day.
Low temperatures will be refreshing Saturday morning, with 60s expected across the area.
Southerly flow resumes on Saturday with temperatures and humidity levels climbing again into early next week. However, with a robust trough across the northern Plains the atmosphere will overall be cooler and less supportive of extreme heat. Presumably, this should cap maximum temperatures in the mid 90s. So although it will be hot, it will feel cooler than our current weather regime.
Additionally, as the upper trough digs into the region we will see rain chances increase beginning Saturday, but more likely Sunday to Monday. Increased Pops from the NBM to account for this.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Increasing cloud cover along with a surface boundary are forecast to move into Northeast Oklahoma this evening and remain common overnight tonight. A few showers/storms may linger overnight near the Kansas border and will continue with VCSH at KBVO. Across the rest of the CWA tonight...mostly clear to scattered high clouds are forecast
During the day Wednesday
scattered to broken mid and high clouds are forecast to continue/develop over the CWA
Low end chance of showers/storms become possible Wednesday afternoon with the boundary forecast over/near the CWA ..and have added Prob30 groups to far Northwest Arkansas. Breezy winds at the start of the period are expected to weaken this evening...become light from a variable direction to a southerly direction tonight...and then return from the south to southwest Wednesday.
VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 80 98 79 99 / 10 20 20 30 FSM 79 101 79 99 / 0 20 0 20 MLC 79 99 78 98 / 0 20 0 20 BVO 75 93 74 97 / 30 30 20 40 FYV 76 97 75 97 / 10 30 10 30 BYV 77 95 73 97 / 10 40 20 40 MKO 78 98 77 97 / 10 20 20 20 MIO 76 93 75 96 / 30 30 30 40 F10 78 98 77 98 / 10 20 10 30 HHW 78 96 78 96 / 0 10 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053>059- 063>065-068-069-073-075.
Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ060>062-066-067-070>072-074-076.
AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ001-002-010- 011.
Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ019-020-029.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 955 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 955 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing late this evening along a boundary extending from NW OK to SE KS... most notably just south of the OK-KS border in N-Central OK. These storms are generally moving eastward and are expected to impact mainly portions of Osage/ Pawnee counties through early tonight. Then there is a low chance of additional shower and storm development along this boundary overnight tonight as it sags south... mainly northwest of I-44 in NE OK. While severe weather is not expected, moderate DCAPE has allowed storms this evening to produce strong outflow winds and some localized stronger gusts cannot be ruled out in our area tonight. Otherwise, have allowed heat headlines to expire this evening with only some minor edits to PoP, sky, & temperature grids. Remainder of the forecast is in good shape at this time.
SHORT TERM
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for most of the area, with Heat Advisories in effect for a small portion of far northeast OK and northwest AR. Afternoon heat indices of 105-115F are expected. A breezy southerly wind will continue through this evening with gusts of 15-25 mph. A few showers and thunderstorms, or perhaps just outflow from distant storms, may move into far northeast OK near the KS border this evening and overnight, but otherwise dry conditions will prevail. Low temperatures will still be quite mild, generally in the mid 70s to around 80 F.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A boundary will remain mostly stationary in northeast OK or southern KS Wednesday, allowing for southerly warm/moist advection to continue. This will maintain the unusually hot airmass in place.
Dewpoints were increased above the NBM through much of the period. Another round of Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect for Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon or evening, CAMs indicate fairly large instability but with limited wind shear. There may be just enough lift along the boundary to generate scattered thunderstorms. Assuming this does occur, these storms would be cold pool dominated and the main hazards would be brief heavy rain and strong gusty winds. Independence Day (Thursday) will feature more of the same with additional hot and humid weather. By Thursday evening, however, a cold front will overtake the stalled boundary across northeast OK. This will likely result in sufficient lift for more widespread convective initiation. With PWAT values near 2", weak steering flow, and minimal shear, areas of heavy rain and strong gusty winds will develop but other severe hazards are unlikely. As these storms develop a surface cold pool, it will force the effective frontal boundary south during the evening and overnight hours. Increased Pops during this period to 40-60%.
For most areas, Friday will be much cooler and drier with highs falling into the upper 80s with dewpoints into the 60s. Some portions of southeast OK, where the front will be slower to clear, may see a few additional storms during the first half of the day.
Low temperatures will be refreshing Saturday morning, with 60s expected across the area.
Southerly flow resumes on Saturday with temperatures and humidity levels climbing again into early next week. However, with a robust trough across the northern Plains the atmosphere will overall be cooler and less supportive of extreme heat. Presumably, this should cap maximum temperatures in the mid 90s. So although it will be hot, it will feel cooler than our current weather regime.
Additionally, as the upper trough digs into the region we will see rain chances increase beginning Saturday, but more likely Sunday to Monday. Increased Pops from the NBM to account for this.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Increasing cloud cover along with a surface boundary are forecast to move into Northeast Oklahoma this evening and remain common overnight tonight. A few showers/storms may linger overnight near the Kansas border and will continue with VCSH at KBVO. Across the rest of the CWA tonight...mostly clear to scattered high clouds are forecast
During the day Wednesday
scattered to broken mid and high clouds are forecast to continue/develop over the CWA
Low end chance of showers/storms become possible Wednesday afternoon with the boundary forecast over/near the CWA ..and have added Prob30 groups to far Northwest Arkansas. Breezy winds at the start of the period are expected to weaken this evening...become light from a variable direction to a southerly direction tonight...and then return from the south to southwest Wednesday.
VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 80 98 79 99 / 10 20 20 30 FSM 79 101 79 99 / 0 20 0 20 MLC 79 99 78 98 / 0 20 0 20 BVO 75 93 74 97 / 30 30 20 40 FYV 76 97 75 97 / 10 30 10 30 BYV 77 95 73 97 / 10 40 20 40 MKO 78 98 77 97 / 10 20 20 20 MIO 76 93 75 96 / 30 30 30 40 F10 78 98 77 98 / 10 20 10 30 HHW 78 96 78 96 / 0 10 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053>059- 063>065-068-069-073-075.
Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ060>062-066-067-070>072-074-076.
AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ001-002-010- 011.
Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ019-020-029.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KTQH
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTQH
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTQH
Wind History graph: TQH
(wind in knots)
Tulsa, OK,
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