NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS64 KOHX 071928 AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 128 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Saturday Night)
Issued at 122 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Mostly sunny conditions across the mid state this afternoon.
Temperatures have warmed into the 50s for most areas with southerly winds of generally 10 to 15 mph. Satellite imagery showing an abundance of patchy high level cloudiness across much of the lower and mid ms valleys and back across TX.

The pattern across the middle portions of the country will be changing rapidly over the next 12 to 36 hours or so. Upper level energy across the northern Rockies will shift east with the upper trough showing a marked increase in amplitude across the upper midwest and Dakotas by Friday evening. Frontogenesis will then commence with the cold front moving toward the MS river on Saturday afternoon. Surface energy will work northward quickly along the boundary with additional weaker pieces of surface energy along the mid and deep south portion of the boundary. As some of the better ul energy catches up with the front, forcing will increase across our area by Saturday evening. Precipitation in the form of widespread showers and tstms will increase in coverage and intensity. The 40-50 pops for the day on Saturday will increase to categorical levels by Saturday night.

In addition to the copious amounts of rainfall, a marginal risk of severe is in place to the west of I-65. If any severe storms occur it will be within the Saturday afternoon and evening time frame. The better forcing looks like around 9 pm in the marginal area, phasing with showalter values of near zero and capes of just 100 or 200j/kg. The 850 mb jet looks like 45 kts or so. There is a fair degree of helicity phasing with the better forcing so the system will bear watching. Otherwise, looks like 2 inch rainfall amounts are possible with the bulk of the rainfall slated for Saturday night.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 122 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

In the extended forecast, Turning colder behind the front. Some of the low level moisture will hang on through Sunday night across the Plateau. Could see some snow flurry activity for that area. Skies should become clear/sunny again on Monday and through the remainder of the period. There does look like a dry cold front around the mid week timeframe with a reinforcing surface high behind it.

For the extended temps, its looking rather cold and below normal for Sunday and Monday with lows mid to upper 20s and highs in the 40s. A slight warmup into the 50s will follow but the aforementioned reinforcing surface high will still keep conditions seasonably cool.



AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR conditions expected at all sites over the next 24 hours.
Southwest winds may gust to around 15 to 20 knots this afternoon, then become light overnight tonight. They'll increase once again by early Friday morning as the pressure gradient begins to tighten ahead of an approaching low pressure system.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 41 63 53 67 / 0 0 60 90 Clarksville 42 63 55 65 / 0 10 80 90 Crossville 35 56 45 59 / 0 0 50 70 Columbia 40 61 53 66 / 0 0 60 90 Cookeville 39 60 50 63 / 0 0 60 80 Jamestown 37 58 47 61 / 0 0 60 80 Lawrenceburg 40 61 53 65 / 0 0 60 90 Murfreesboro 40 63 52 67 / 0 0 60 90 Waverly 41 62 53 64 / 0 10 80 90

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Nashville, TN,