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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nashville-Davidson, TN

June 25, 2024 1:12 PM CDT (18:12 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:30 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM
Moonrise 11:23 PM   Moonset 9:11 AM 
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Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nashville-Davidson, TN
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Area Discussion for - Nashville, TN
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746 FXUS64 KOHX 251657 AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1157 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Toasty but fairly unhumid day across the midstate with current temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s but dewpoints down in the upper 50s to low 60s. This drier airmass along with ample sunshine will allow highs to soar into the mid to upper 90s today west of the Plateau. Deeper low level moisture is lurking just southwest of our cwa and will begin moving back into the area later today, and as a result the HRRR and CONSShort models show a couple of popup showers or maybe a thunderstorm late this afternoon or evening - mainly in our southwest counties. Therefore added a very slight chance pop based on this potential.

Tomorrow continues to appear to be our best rain chances over the next 7 days as an upper trough swings down from the north, forcing a cold front across the region. Guidance varies wildly on coverage and timing of showers and storms tomorrow, but in general highest precip chances will be during the afternoon with high likely pops warranted. Temperatures will be a challenge tomorrow especially if there are considerable clouds and rain during the morning, but otherwise should be a another hot and humid day with highs well into the 90s. Forecast soundings are all over the place with the NAM its usual aggressive self, but consensus is around 1000-1500 J/Kg MLCAPE with mid level lapse rates between 5-6 C/Km and deep layer shear near or less than 20 knots. These parameters, while not very impressive, would still be favorable for a few storms to become strong or possibly severe with damaging microburst winds the main threat. If storms can congeal into clusters or lines as the NAM suggests, there could be a bit higher potential for damaging winds, but this is uncertain. SPC continues to highlight our forecast area in a marginal risk for tomorrow, which seems quite reasonable.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Rain chances will end on Thursday and a much cooler and less humid day is anticipated, with highs only in the mid 80s to around 90. This cooldown will be unfortunately brief as an upper ridge builds across much of the southern US into the weekend.
Highs will reach the mid to upper 90s for much of the midstate Friday and Saturday with potential for a few spots to hit 100. In addition, low level moisture is expected to be higher than we have seen recently with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, which will bring max heat index values in the afternoons to around the 105 mark on Friday and between 105-110 on Saturday.
Therefore, a Heat Advisory may be needed for parts of the midstate on Friday and likely all of the area for Saturday. By Saturday night into Sunday, another cold front will sink southward from the Midwest and bring slightly cooler temperatures as well as another round of scattered showers and storms. Coverage of this round of rain doesn`t appear as widespread as Wednesday, so only chance pops are currently warranted. After that, forecast is basically rinse and repeat with a return to highs in the upper 90s by early next week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Light and variable winds will become south-southwesterly this morning, then most likely light and variable again tonight. No VIS restrictions anticipated or clouds even. VFR all the way.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 98 74 97 72 / 0 20 70 60 Clarksville 96 74 92 69 / 0 10 70 40 Crossville 90 66 91 64 / 0 0 40 60 Columbia 97 71 98 69 / 0 20 50 60 Cookeville 92 69 92 67 / 0 0 50 70 Jamestown 91 69 91 66 / 0 0 50 60 Lawrenceburg 96 71 95 68 / 0 20 50 60 Murfreesboro 97 70 98 69 / 0 20 60 70 Waverly 97 74 93 68 / 0 10 60 40

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KJWN JOHN C TUNE,TN 5 sm22 minNW 0510 smClear93°F64°F39%29.98
KBNA NASHVILLE INTL,TN 7 sm19 minS 0510 smPartly Cloudy93°F61°F34%30.00
KMQY SMYRNA,TN 18 sm16 minvar 0310 smClear91°F64°F41%30.01
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Nashville, TN,




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