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FXUS64 KOHX 190151 AAA AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Nashville TN 851 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 851 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Upper level troughing influences will continue shifting eastward, thus shower chances will continue to diminish over next few hours, with shower and/or thunderstorm chances ending by midnight. Current regional temperature trends continue to support overnight forecasted lows. Tweaked hourly temperature, dewpoint, wind speed/direction, and sky condition grids blending them with previously forecasted hourly gridded late evening values. With decreasing cloudiness and light north to calm winds expected, and continued ample low level moisture present across mid state region, patchy fog formation will be possible remainder of this evening and especially as overnight hours progress. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track.

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Showers and storms have moved into the southwestern part of the CWA over the last hour with more development further north.
Looking at obs, a weak mesolow is centered near the TN/MS border.
CAMS have the mesolow moving east through the afternoon hours. The focus of showers and storms should be in the south this afternoon with more scattered activity along and north of I-40. A couple strong storms are possible mainly south of I-40 through the afternoon. Currently instability values are around 600-850 J/kg of MLCAPE with the CAMs increasing those values to 1200-1400 J/kg this afternoon ahead of the mesolow in the south. Shear is outracing the lift, so any tall updrafts will not be able to sustain themselves. Some small hail will be possible along with some gusty winds in the strongest cells. Heavy rain will also be possible across the area today especially in the south where PWAT values will be around 1.4-1.6". MRMS 1 hr QPF accumulations show some pockets of 1-2" over Wayne County recently. These types of rain amounts will be possible farther east.

As we lose diurnal influences and the 500 mb trough axis slides east, shower coverage will decrease after 00z. Sky coverage will decrease west of the plateau with very light north wind. Patches of fog could develop after midnight. Once we scour out any fog Sunday morning, temperatures will be on the increase. Upper ridging will build in from the west and highs should top out in the 80s across the area.

LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The start of the extended forecast will see a continuation of warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 80s from Monday through Wednesday. A cold front will try to approach the Mid South on Wednesday but will lose its eastern momentum as the parent low lifts out of the central plains toward Ontario. The surface boundary will get close enough for shower and storm chances to be reintroduced Wednesday night but more so on Thursday. The surface front looks like it will linger in vicinity of the area which will keep rain chances elevated on Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually taper off after 00Z. Sky cover will also diminish overnight, and with light, northerly winds, fog will be a concern. Best chance for fog along with MVFR visibilities is at KCKV, KCSV, and KSRB likely between 04Z and 13Z. Conditions will improve after sunrise with VFR areawide.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 63 86 63 88 / 20 0 0 10 Clarksville 61 85 61 86 / 10 0 0 0 Crossville 58 79 57 80 / 30 10 0 20 Columbia 61 85 60 86 / 20 0 0 10 Cookeville 60 80 59 82 / 30 10 0 10 Jamestown 58 80 57 82 / 40 10 0 10 Lawrenceburg 61 83 61 85 / 30 0 0 10 Murfreesboro 61 85 60 87 / 30 0 0 10 Waverly 61 85 62 87 / 20 0 0 0

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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