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Marine Weather and Tides Coinjock, NC Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:10AM

Sunset 5:22PM

Thursday January 23, 2020 9:41 PM EST (02:41 UTC)

Moonrise 6:20AM

Moonset 4:13PM

Illumination 1%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Coinjock, NC

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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 240018 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 718 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure continues to slide offshore tonight. Low pressure tracks across the region Friday night and Saturday morning. Another area of high pressure builds toward the area early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 330 PM EST Thursday .

Late afternoon weather analysis shows weakening sfc high pressure centered a couple hundred miles offshore of the New England coast. Upper ridging is building across the wrn Atlantic, while an upper trough is diving over the Plains. A well-defined upper low has developed at the base of the trough, and is slowly moving eastward through southeastern KS. BKN cirrus has overspread much of the area from the SW, with a couple of isolated pockets of SC noted as well. It is warmer than it has been during the last few days, with temperatures in the mid-upper 40s across most areas (w/ some low to locally mid 50s over NE NC).

The upper ridge slides farther offshore tonight as the aforementioned (vigorous) closed upper low digs across the Mississippi Valley. High clouds continue to increase through the night while low stratus overspreads the western half of the CWA from the south late tonight. Lows tonight range from the low 30s NW to upper 30s/low 40s SE, and these values will likely be achieved during the evening to early overnight hours, before becoming steady inland and rising toward the coast (especially after 4 AM). Cannot rule out a sprinkle or two over the Piedmont later tonight, but have kept PoPs aob 14% throughout the CWA through 12z/7 AM Friday. In addition, there is a chance of some patchy fog across portions of srn VA/NE NC (where some model soundings show an increase in low- level moisture along w/ a developing inversion). 12z/23 HREF probs of VSBY < 1/2 mile are ~50% in parts of interior NE NC after 4 AM.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 330 PM EST Thursday .

The upper-level low moves NE through the Ohio Valley toward the Ern Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. Moisture will be transported north due to SSW flow aloft through the day Friday allowing for a chc of showers W of I-95 beginning by late morning/early afternoon. However any showers during the daylight portion of the day will be isolated and very light ahead of the main line of convective showers arriving overnight. In-situ wedging appears weaker given a slower onset to rain in the piedmont and have therefore increased highs to the low- mid 50s over the piedmont and Ern Shore, to the mid-upper 50s across central VA, and to the low-60s for far SE VA/NE NC.

The main line of showers appears to be delayed, per latest guidance, until late Friday night into early Saturday morning. However, the line will move quickly and any one location can expect a window of about 3 hours of precip once the line reaches you. That being said, latest guidance suggests that the line will be more robust/convective than previously expected and therefore rain will be moderate to occasionally heavy. The line also appears to stay intact further east than originally expected. Have therefore increased QPF to 1.0- 1.25 inches west of I-95, 0.5- 1.0 inches over most of the CWA east of I-95, and 0.25- 0.5 inches in far SE VA/NE NC. Cannot completely rule out a stray rumble of thunder, but thunder is not expected at this time. Temperatures Friday night will be mild and range from the mid-upper 40s across the piedmont and NE counties through the Ern Shore and from the low-mid 50s in central Va southward into NE NC. Saturday will be another mild day with highs in the mid-upper 50s everywhere except SE VA and NE NC where low 60s are possible once again. Clouds clear out by Saturday night allowing temperatures to cool to the low 30s in the NW to the upper 30s in the SE. High pressure returns Sunday with near seasonal temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s across the CWA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 330 PM EST Thursday .

Dry/seasonable conditions prevail through at least Wednesday with west to northwest flow at the surface and aloft along w/ weak sfc high pressure to our N. Any Arctic air will be well to our north (across central/nrn Canada) through the extended period and potentially well beyond that. Highs will mainly range from the upper 40s-mid 50s from Mon-Wed, with morning lows in the low-mid 30s in most areas (except for some upper 30s across coastal SE VA/NE NC).

There is less agreement in the models as we head into the late week period. The 12z/23 GFS is forecasting high pressure to settle across the area by late Thu night, while upper troughing deepens over the central CONUS (w/ sfc low pressure developing along the wrn Gulf coast). The ECMWF/GEM are forecasting a weak shortwave trough to approach our area from the W during by Thursday timeframe as low pressure develops off the Carolina coast. The ECMWF/GEM solution would allow for rain chances to increase by Thu. For now, went with a blended solution w/ PoPs of 15-25% for the area from Thu AM-Thu night. Highs Thursday range from the mid 40s NW to the mid 50s SE. Lows Thu night mainly in the 30s.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 700 PM EST Thursday .

High pressure will slide offshore tonight with clouds continuing to thicken and lower, but CIGs are expected to remain VFR most of the night. However, CIGs have dropped to MVFR at RIC and is expected to remain for a few more hours before returning to VFR later on tonight. The latest guidance continues to suggest that MVFR stratus spreads northward into central VA and northeast NC by Friday morning, so have included BKN MVFR CIGs at RIC and ECG Friday morning. In addition, there is some potential for fog at ECG tonight. CIGS will lift during the late morning Friday with only brief SCT MVFR conditions possible.

Low pressure will pass across the region Friday night into early Saturday bringing rain and degraded flight conditions. Upper level low pressure crosses the region Saturday into Sunday, which should only bring passing mid-clouds and a 20-30% of showers (mainly Saturday aftn from RIC-SBY). Weak high pressure builds in from the W Monday aftn.

MARINE. As of 355 PM EST Thursday .

Late this aftn, high pressure was centered off the New England coast. This was resulting in N/NE winds 5-15 kts across the waters. Waves in the bay were 1-2 ft. Seas were 3-4 ft for the coastal waters from Virginia Beach up to the MD eastern shore, and 4-6 ft for the Srn VA coastal waters and NE NC waters. The elevated seas over the srn two coastal waters will now persist through at least Sat, due to NE or E winds becoming SE then S, as the next low/front approaches from the WSW.

Winds will become more easterly on Fri, as the high continues to move NE away from the area. Wind speeds will pick up to 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts by late in the day Fri, then become SE and increase to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts for Fri night into Sat morning ahead of the approaching low pressure system. Waves/seas build throughout the day on Fri with the persistent easterly flow, and by Sat morning expect 3-4 ft waves in the bay and seas 5-8 ft.

Cold front associated with the low pressure system crosses the area waters Sat morning into early Sat aftn. Westerly flow expected after the frontal passage. At this time, have SCAs for the Ches Bay and coastal waters for this event from late Fri/Fri evening into or thru Sat morning/aftn. May need it in the other waters, esply Fri night. High pressure builds in late Sun and remains in place for the early part of next week with sub-SCA conditions expected.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ656-658.

SYNOPSIS . AJZ NEAR TERM . ERI SHORT TERM . RMM LONG TERM . ERI AVIATION . CP/ERI MARINE . CMF/TMG

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
FRFN7	15 mi	161 min				5 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370	15 mi	53 min		47°F			1024.4 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC	16 mi	41 min			46°F	5 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430)	20 mi	41 min			48°F	5 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA	36 mi	59 min		43°F	47°F		1025.7 hPa
44086	37 mi	46 min			49°F	6 ft
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147)	41 mi	41 min			46°F	4 ft
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA	41 mi	53 min		43°F			1026.1 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA	43 mi	53 min		42°F			1025.9 hPa
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC	43 mi	59 min		49°F	46°F		1024 hPa
44064	46 mi	41 min	NNE 7.8 G 9.7		43°F	2 ft	1025.9 hPa (-0.3)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA	46 mi	59 min			44°F		1025.9 hPa
CHBV2	48 mi	59 min		42°F			1024.7 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA	48 mi	59 min		42°F			1025.7 hPa
44087	49 mi	41 min			43°F	2 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC

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11 PM

12 AM

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5 AM

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Last 24hr

NE19 G23

NE20

N19

NE17

NE17

N15 G21

N17

N17 G22

N21

N20

N16

N15

N11

N13

N13

N12

N12

N16

N14 G17

N15

N13

N13

N13

N11

1 day ago

NE25

N27

NE25 G31

NE21

NE23

NE21 G27

N21 G27

NE24

N23

N19 G26

N19 G28

N22

N21 G28

N21 G26

N20 G26

N17 G21

N18 G22

N16 G21

N18

N17 G25

N18 G22

NE19

NE21

NE19 G24

2 days ago

NE17

N16 G22

N15 G20

NE17

N19 G25

N22 G30

N21 G28

N20 G25

N20 G27

N23 G28

N23 G28

N23 G31

N22 G29

N24 G31

N23 G28

N20 G29

N20 G27

N21 G26

N21

N21 G27

N23 G28

NE24

NE24

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Currituck, Currituck County Airport, NC	5 mi	66 min	NNW 5	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	42°F	42°F	100%	1026.1 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC	13 mi	47 min	NNE 8	10.00 mi	Fair	44°F	39°F	85%	1025.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONX

Wind History from ONX (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

N8

N5

Calm

Calm

N4

Calm

NW3

N7

N8

N8

N8

N6

N8

N7

N8

N7

N8

N10

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N10

N7

N6

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N7

1 day ago

N13

N12

N12 G15

N7

NW6

N6

N9

N7

N7

N12 G16

N12 G18

N12

N14 G21

N17 G23

N12

NE12 G16

N12 G15

N12 G16

N8

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NE9

NE7

NE10

2 days ago

N13 G19

N9

N13 G19

N11 G15

N7

N7

N10 G14

N7

N9 G14

N9

N10 G14

N14 G23

N14 G23

N13 G22

N14 G22

N12 G19

N17 G20

N14 G18

N12

N11 G17

N9 G14

N10

N9 G15

N9

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Tide / Current Tables for Currituck Beach Light, North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (21,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA

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