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Marine Weather and Tides Coinjock, NC Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 6:47AM

Sunset 7:29PM

Thursday April 2, 2020 12:15 PM EDT (16:15 UTC)

Moonrise 12:15PM

Moonset 2:15AM

Illumination 71%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Coinjock, NC

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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 021108 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 708 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong low pressure will remain off the New England coast today as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. High pressure remains over the Great Lakes tonight and Friday as the low pivots back toward the coast. The low will push farther east Saturday as high pressure builds over the area.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 400 AM EDT Thursday .

Strong low pressure remains east of the New England coast early this morning, with a vigorous upper trough over the East Coast. Meanwhile, high pressure is centered N of the Great Lakes. A subtle shortwave trough has tracked around the wrn periphery of the upper trough early this morning, and this has brought some mid- clouds, but the latest IR satellite imagery depicts that this cloud cover is dissipating. Temperatures range through the 40s early this morning, with a light NW wind.

Low pressure will continue to spin off the New England coast today as high pressure ridges swd through the Great Lakes. This will maintain a strong pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region. This combined with good mixing will result in dry and breezy conditions. A NW wind is expected to range from 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph over the Piedmont, to 15-20 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph from central to SE VA and NE NC, and ~20 mph with gusts to ~30 mph for the Ern Shore. Sunny with a few aftn CU over the Ern Shore, with highs ranging from the mid/upper 50s over the Ern Shore, to the low 60s inland W of the Bay.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 400 AM EDT Thursday .

The stacked upper low is forecast to retrograde back toward the coast later Thursday night into Friday. This will likely result in variably cloudy/mostly cloudy conditions across the ern half of the area Friday (and there could even be a few light showers along the Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore) , with a partly to mostly sunny sky farther inland. Lows Thursday night range from the mid/upper 30s from the Piedmont to the interior coastal plain, to the low 40s closer to the coast where more mixing is expected. At this time, frost does not appear to be a threat over the Piedmont given light mixing and low dewpoints. Continued breezy Friday with seasonal highs ranging from the mid/upper 50s over the Ern Shore to the low/mid 60s over the Piedmont. The low slowly moves farther offshore Friday night and Saturday, with weak high pressure building into the region. Mostly clear inland to partly cloudy toward the coast Friday night, then partly sunny Saturday. Lows Friday night will generally be 40-45F, followed by highs Saturday ranging from the low/mid 50s along the coast, to the low/mid 60s inland W of the Bay.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday .

Quiet to start the extended forecast period with high pressure in control of the local weather. Skies will average somewhere between partly cloudy (west) and mostly clear (central/east) Saturday night. Overnight lows fall into the low and mid 40s. Mostly clear on Sunday with temperatures warming into the low/mid 60s near the coast to right around 70s for the Piedmont counties.

Diffuse high pressure slips to the south of the local region Sunday night into Monday as weak southerly surface flow continues. Lows fall into the upper 40s and low 50s under partly cloudy skies. Moisture levels tick upward on Monday afternoon as high temps climb into the mid 70s inland (upper 60s/low 70s near the coast). Slight chance of showers by Monday evening into early Tuesday as a series of low amplitude waves in the NW flow aloft traverse the region. This pattern will continue into the mid week period with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 705 AM EDT Thursday .

A NW wind will increase to 10-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt at RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG, and 15-20kt with gusts to 25-30kt at SBY as low pressure lingers offshore and as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Sunny today with the exception of FEW-SCT aftn CU at SBY. Mostly clear for much of the region tonight with a NW wind of 8-12kt. However, some SC could arrive from the NE at SBY late tonight.

Continued breezy Friday as high pressure remains NW of the region and low pressure lingers offshore. Variably cloudy/mostly cloudy toward the coast Friday, and partly to mostly sunny farther inland. Weak high pressure prevails Saturday and Sunday, and then pushes offshore Monday.

MARINE. As of 400 AM EDT Thursday .

A very strong area of low pressure is now centered a few hundred miles E of the northern Mid-Atlantic coast early this morning, with a broad area of weak high pressure centered from the wrn Great Lakes S to the Gulf Coast. N-NW winds are starting to increase (due to a secondary nocturnal CAA surge on the back side of the low). Wind speeds are 10-20 kt (highest N), with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves in the bay are 2-4 ft while seas offshore range from 5-7 ft N to 6-9 ft S.

Winds will increase to 20-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the bay, Lower James River, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters during the next few hours as the aforementioned CAA surge quickly moves southward. A slight decrease in winds is expected over the bay/ocean today (while remaining near/just above SCA thresholds), but NW winds over the rivers will increase during the day to 15-20 kt (w/ a few gusts to 25 kt) as mixing over land improves. Therefore, went ahead and added an SCA for the Upper Rivers starting at 10 AM this morning (running through 22z/6 PM Friday). SCAs for the Ches Bay/Currituck Sound have also been extended through 22z/6 PM Friday. The offshore low will not move much today before actually retrograding to the SW tonight-Friday. Another nocturnal CAA surge (more energetic with the low a bit closer to the area) is expected to drop southward tonight. While winds may briefly fall below SCA criteria on the rivers/Currituck Sound this evening, they will quickly increase to 15-25 kt by early Fri AM. Over the bay/ocean, NW winds will increase to ~25 kt with frequent gusts to 30 kt by early Fri AM. A few gusts of 35 kt are likely across the nrn Ches Bay zone (near Tangier Island) and the nrn coastal waters (mainly near 20 nm offshore). Do not feel that gale gusts will be frequent enough to warrant a Gale Warning tonight-Fri AM. Local wind gust probabilities for >34 kt are less than 50% over the majority of the marine area, with a few spots in the 40-50% range (mainly over part of the northernmost Ches Bay zone and near 20 nm offshore of the coastal waters N of Cape Charles). Winds slowly diminish Fri-Sat as the low slowly turns south then southeast, while the area of weak high pressure slowly builds toward the area from the NW. Winds may still be around SCA thresholds over the bay/ocean through Fri night (and turn more to the N). Winds finally fall below SCA criteria on Sat as the high moves just to the W of the waters. Winds aob 10 kt are expected during the latter half of the weekend as the high settles over the waters.

Seas will continue to slowly decrease to 4-7 ft (on average) today. However, the low pressure system will meander/loop around the waters off the east coast and will continue to send large swell waves toward the coast through at least this weekend. Seas remain 4-7 ft (on average) through Fri before increasing to 7-9 ft on Sat. Waves near the mouth of the bay may rise above SCA thresholds by Sat as well. Seas are progged to slowly fall during the second half of the weekend, perhaps falling below SCA thresholds by early next week. The SCA for the ocean was extended through 10z Sat (the end of the 4th period) for now, but will need to be extended further in future shifts.

FIRE WEATHER. As of 400 AM EDT Thursday .

Dry and breezy today with high pressure centered NW of the region and strong low pressure off the New England coast. A NW wind is expected to range from 10-15 mph inland to 15-20 mph toward the coast today, with gusts to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph toward the coast. Min RH values are expected to range from 25-30% inland to 30-40% closer to the coast. However, due to recent rain, observed fuel moisture per area RAWS stations is generally in the range of 15-22%. Therefore, this should preclude any fire weather concerns today. Continued dry and breezy over the region Friday. Min RH values are expected to drop to 20-25% over the SW Piedmont Friday along with a 10-15 mph NW wind with gusts to ~20 mph. SPC has included this area in a Day 2 elevated risk. Early green-up will likely be a limiting factor to any fire weather concerns Friday. More cloud cover from the I-95 corridor ewd will result in higher min RH values (30-35% for I-95 corridor to 40-50% toward the coast).

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 705 AM EDT Thursday .

N/NW winds have continued to allow water to exit the bay, and tidal anomalies have continued to fall during the past few hours (averaging around 1.25-1.5 ft as of 7 AM). Have dropped all Coastal Flood Advisories, as Windmill Point has already crested, and Lewisetta/Bishop's Head will crest a few tenths below minor flood thresholds this morning. The only Advisory that is currently in effect is for the bay side of Northampton County, which will be cancelled/allowed to expire as water levels at Bayford will fall below minor flood thresholds by 8-9 AM.

Decent N-NW winds/a few more ebb tides will allow anomalies in the bay to remain relatively low, and no coastal flooding is expected from this aftn-Fri. However, increasing swell (perhaps 7-9 ft) coupled w/ decreasing N winds will likely allow water to again pile up in the bay, resulting in an increase in tidal anomalies. Minor tidal flooding appears likely in many areas adjacent to the Ches Bay (and also Atlantic Ocean) this weekend. Cannot rule out a few occurrences of moderate tidal flooding this weekend in the typical flood-prone sites across the VA Nrn Neck/bay side of the Lower MD Ern Shore.

CLIMATE. March 2020 temperature ranks:

4th warmest at RIC (54.8F), #1 1945 (58.5F) 4th warmest at ORF (57.0F), #1 1945 (59.5F) 8th warmest at SBY (50.7F), #1 1945 (56.2F) 4th warmest at ECG (58.0F), #1 1945 (61.5F)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ100. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630>634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658.

SYNOPSIS . AJZ NEAR TERM . AJZ SHORT TERM . AJZ LONG TERM . RHR AVIATION . AJZ MARINE . ERI FIRE WEATHER . AJZ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . ERI CLIMATE . AKQ

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
FRFN7	15 mi	135 min				6 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370	15 mi	87 min	NNW 18 G 23	50°F			1012.8 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC	16 mi	75 min			51°F	6 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430)	20 mi	75 min			50°F	8 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA	36 mi	87 min	NW 11 G 14	53°F	57°F		1013.2 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147)	41 mi	75 min			49°F	6 ft
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA	41 mi	87 min	NW 16 G 20	50°F			1013.2 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA	43 mi	87 min	NW 9.9 G 17	52°F			1013.3 hPa
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC	43 mi	93 min	N 16 G 21	51°F	51°F		1013.4 hPa
44064	46 mi	75 min	NNW 16 G 19		53°F		1012.8 hPa (-0.8)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA	46 mi	93 min			55°F		1013.3 hPa
CHBV2	48 mi	93 min	NW 18 G 23	49°F			1011.6 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA	48 mi	87 min	NW 16 G 19	51°F			1012.9 hPa

Wind History for Duck, NC

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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Last 24hr

N30

N28

N25

N24

N21 G28

N21

N16

NW11 G15

NW9

NW7

NW8

NW9

W9 G12

W8 G13

W11 G15

W13 G18

W10 G14

NW13 G18

NW17

N22

N19 G24

N19 G23

N18 G22

NW18 G25

1 day ago

NE15

N14 G17

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NE18 G25

NE22

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NE26

NE28 G35

NE32

N29 G35

NE38

NE39 G51

NE35 G43

N30 G38

N26

N30 G38

N30 G39

N27 G33

N31 G39

N30 G37

N32

N33

2 days ago

NE2

E3

SE5

SE4

SW11

W11 G16

W9

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SW5

SW7

SW8

W9 G15

N21

N21 G26

N21 G26

NE22

NE20

N18 G22

N17

N23

N19

NE16

NE16

N17

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Currituck, Currituck County Airport, NC	5 mi	20 min	NW 10 G 23	10.00 mi	Fair	55°F	31°F	41%	0 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC	13 mi	21 min	NNW 15	10.00 mi	Fair	59°F	30°F	33%	1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONX

Wind History from ONX (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

N17 G21

N15 G23

N16 G25

N14 G24

N13 G21

N10 G17

N6

NW3

Calm

Calm

W3

W3

W5

SW4

W5

W6

W5

W4

NW4

NW6

N6

N9

NW10 G16

NW10 G18

1 day ago

N13 G16

NE8

NE7

NE13 G16

NE12 G17

NE12 G18

NE14 G20

NE9 G16

NE10 G19

NE17 G24

NE19 G25

NE19 G31

NE21 G30

NE25 G36

N23 G32

N25 G36

N23 G31

N23 G30

N18 G31

N23 G30

N19 G31

N14 G23

N13 G21

N12 G20

2 days ago

E3

Calm

SW8

W9

W12 G19

W5

W4

SW6

S3

SW4

SW6

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NW7

N15 G21

N14 G19

NE12 G20

NE10 G17

N8

NE5

N11

N12

N11

NE9

NE8

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Tide / Current Tables for Currituck Beach Light, North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA

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