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FXUS64 KLZK 082004 AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 204 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 158 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

An upper trough is deepening and expanding across central and into south-central portions of the CONUS, with southwest upper flow across the forecast area, ahead of the trough. An associated surface storm system has developed, currently over Oklahoma, with low-level southerly flow bringing warmer air and moisture across the region from the GoM. High temperatures this afternoon will top out in the lower to upper 60s. Dew-point temperatures will increase to the lower to mid 60s and PWATs will reach 1-1.25 across central and southern portions of the state by tonight. As the upper trough deepens and the storm system tracks northeast toward the Midwest region tonight, a cold front will sweep eastward across the forecast area, initiating showers and storms.
Severe weather parameters indicate potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and even a lower-end threat for tornadoes: bulk shear values range from 50- 60kt, surface-based and elevated CAPE values 1000-1500 J/kg, 0-1km and 0-3km SRH 1-200 m2/s2.

By Saturday morning, the cold front will still be moving across the forecast area, with northwest wind behind the front and southerly flow ahead of the front. We'll see a contrast of dew-point temperatures in the lower 40s across northwest Arkansas and in the lower to mid 60s across southern and southeast portions of the state. With the cold front providing low-level lift and the upper forcing for ascent provided by the upper trough, scattered showers will develop early in the day ahead of the front (across much of the central, southern, and eastern portions of the CWA) and continue to increase in coverage and severity by Saturday afternoon. Much of the same severe weather parameters will be present across roughly the southeast half of the state Saturday and showers with severe storm potential are forecast across this area. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a lower-end tornado threat are forecast with these storms as well.

Showers and storms will exit the forecast area to the east Saturday night and northwest upper-level and surface flow will bring drier air to the state for Sunday (dew-point temperatures in the 20s/30s). Sunday morning temperatures will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s across the state. Highs Sunday will be in the 40s/50s.

LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 158 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Extended forecast is rather benign, as the area will remain largely between systems during the time frame.

The upper level system bring unsettled weather to the area during the short term will be exiting quickly to the east at the beginning of the period, and the upper level pattern will transition to zonal flow.

Toward the latter half of the period, another trof will begin to amplify across the western US, bringing a southwesterly flow aloft over Arkansas. Models are still having a difficult time deciding how to handle the trof, but overall the system will probably be slow to approach the midsection of the country. For the moment it looks like some rainfall will start to overspread the western parts of the state by Friday, becoming more widespread by Saturday..but I would not be surprised if the timing changed on that somewhat.

Temperatures will remain fairly close to climo during the period...with highs generally in the 50's statewide, and lows in the 30's.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 51 61 34 49 / 60 60 20 0 Camden AR 60 70 37 51 / 60 60 20 0 Harrison AR 43 56 29 45 / 50 20 10 0 Hot Springs AR 54 65 34 51 / 70 60 10 0 Little Rock AR 57 65 37 51 / 80 70 20 0 Monticello AR 61 74 39 52 / 60 70 50 0 Mount Ida AR 50 64 32 51 / 70 50 10 0 Mountain Home AR 46 58 31 46 / 50 30 10 0 Newport AR 55 63 34 47 / 70 70 20 0 Pine Bluff AR 59 70 38 50 / 70 70 30 0 Russellville AR 49 63 33 51 / 70 40 10 0 Searcy AR 53 63 34 50 / 70 70 20 0 Stuttgart AR 58 67 37 49 / 70 70 30 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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