Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 8:59 PM   Moonset 6:04 AM

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FXUS64 KLZK 252316 AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 616 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Surface boundary over south Arkansas was slowly lifting northward as a warm front this afternoon. The boundary will continue moving slowly northward overnight, and will push into MO during the day tomorrow.

Most of the rain tonight will be along and north of the frontal boundary, with the heaviest rainfall expected across the north.

Looking above the surface, there was a broad trof located over the western US, with several shortwaves rotating thru it. Overall flow pattern across AR will remain southwesterly. Cyclogenesis on the lee of the Rockies will spin up a few surface lows over the Plains, and will eventually bring a cold front into the area during the extended period.

LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Main feature in the long term will be a storm system in the Plains dragging a cold front toward Arkansas on Sunday. Ahead of the front, a warm/unstable environment will be in place, with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely. Some storms could be severe, especially in the northwest half of the state. The limiting factor during the event will be the track of the system, which will be toward the upper Midwest and well to the north. This will remove some of the wind energy/lift potential.

Otherwise, widespread heavy rain is in the forecast, with two to more than three inch amounts possible. Some flash flooding will likely result if this much precipitation materializes.

Given the track of the system, the front will not make it through the region, and will become parallel with the upper flow. This will keep the pattern somewhat unsettled in the days to follow, with mostly diurnal convection expected. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should pop up each afternoon, and pretty much dissipate after dark.

Above average temperatures will be noted through the period.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

MVFR/IFR conditions are likely to prevail across central and southern terminals through much of the period. Southern terminals may briefly see VFR conditions tonight before deteoriating conditions return to the forecast by tomorrow afternoon. SHRA/TSRA will once again be possible Friday as a cold front makes its way into the state.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 56 76 66 81 / 30 40 70 60 Camden AR 64 81 67 84 / 10 20 40 30 Harrison AR 53 71 63 77 / 60 80 60 50 Hot Springs AR 62 77 66 82 / 10 60 60 50 Little Rock AR 62 80 68 84 / 20 40 60 50 Monticello AR 66 82 68 86 / 10 10 20 20 Mount Ida AR 63 75 65 81 / 20 70 70 60 Mountain Home AR 53 73 64 78 / 50 70 70 60 Newport AR 58 79 67 82 / 30 30 50 50 Pine Bluff AR 63 81 68 84 / 10 20 40 30 Russellville AR 58 76 65 80 / 20 70 70 60 Searcy AR 57 78 66 81 / 20 30 60 50 Stuttgart AR 61 80 68 84 / 10 20 40 40

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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