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FXUS64 KLZK 021956 AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 156 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

It's a tale of two Arkansas this afternoon: persistent cloudiness over NWrn sections has held temps in the 40s and 50s F while readings in the upper 50s to mid 60s F are common over SErn sections where ample clearing has been observed. This is largely thanks to an incoming upper trough and sfc front currently traversing the Red River Valley.

Per regional radar imagery, light rain continues developing near the boundary across Ern OK with light returns stretching Ewrd into AR, although dry air in the H900 to H600 layer suggests rain will be quite limited away from the boundary itself. Did maintain the highest PoP thru tonight across NWrn sections where the most favorable overlap of forcing/moisture will reside, especially as a sfc low develops over OK before brushing NW AR as it moves NEwrd.
Elsewhere, no substantiative rain is expected. Temps will fall into the 30s/40s overnight with gradually clearing skies thru the morning hours Sun.

For the remainder of the period, the pattern aloft will remain active with another upper trough dropping SEwrd thru the Plains/Midwest Sun into Mon. This will push another front thru the area, although moisture will be scarce and no additional rainfall is expected. Temps will remain in the 50s/60s F for highs and 30s/40s F for lows thru Mon.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 155 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

A cold front is expected to push through the state Tuesday. However, with the limited amount of moisture associated with the front, PoPs are expected to remain on the low side. A mostly quiet long term period is expected as high pressure will keep mostly dry and calm conditions around after Tuesday.

As mentioned above, a ridge of high pressure will control much of the weather pattern across the state bringing southerly winds late in the week. This is expected to keep temperatures average to above average through the period before another weather system impacts the state next weekend.

Temperatures are expected to be in the mid 50s to upper 60s through the period with overnight lows in the 30s to upper 40s. Wednesday is expected to be the coldest across the state as we feel the effects of the cold front that passes through Tuesday.



AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Sat imagery shows persistent low cigs invof HRO/BPK with a broader area of BKN/OVC high clouds streaming in over the NWrn half of AR. Highest potential for continued MVFR/IFR cigs will remain invof Nrn sites with some SHRA activity late evening. Cigs will gradually lift overnight with clearing skies late in the period, and winds will remain largely L/V.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 40 61 39 55 / 10 0 0 0 Camden AR 38 62 39 59 / 10 0 0 0 Harrison AR 36 60 35 53 / 20 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 38 60 40 58 / 10 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 43 61 42 58 / 10 0 0 0 Monticello AR 43 63 43 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 35 62 37 58 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 38 60 36 53 / 40 0 0 0 Newport AR 41 60 40 55 / 10 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 41 62 41 58 / 10 0 0 0 Russellville AR 38 62 37 58 / 10 0 0 0 Searcy AR 39 60 39 57 / 10 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 41 60 40 56 / 10 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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