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FXUS64 KLZK 181824 AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 124 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

If you have the ability to look at a visible satellite loop, there is a very distinct mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) in place over northern Mississippi and western Tennessee early this afternoon, primarily bringing subsidence to northeast Arkansas and spreading lift east over northern Alabama and central Tennessee.
Outside of putting some high clouds in place over portions of east and central Arkansas, this feature won't play any major role in Arkansas weather, but it is pretty cool to look at and does impact short term weather conditions if you plan on traveling east through tonight. Otherwise fair weather cumulus clouds were in place over the state with temperatures generally in the lower 80s for south and central Arkansas and in the upper 70s to the north. Temperatures will continue to rise a few degrees through this afternoon with most of the state topping out in the lower to mid 80s. Water vapor satellite imagery showed a compact shortwave trough over Arkansas moving to the east-southeast with upper level ridging to our west.

Upper level ridging is expected to amplify over Arkansas tomorrow before pushing east as a weak upper level disturbance moves over the Arkansas river valley tomorrow night into Monday morning. This weak upper level disturbance is not expected to provide enough lift to cause any precipitation to develop over the state Sunday night into Monday morning, but may bring some higher level clouds over the area radiating some heat back to the surface aiding in keeping overnight lows up in the upper 60s for most locations.
Upper level ridging will build back over the state on Monday and Monday night as a strong and large upper trough moves over the western continental United States.

Low level winds will go from light and variable Sunday morning to southerly by Sunday afternoon and will remain out of the south throughout the day on Monday. The combination of upper level ridging and southerly winds will cause Arkansas to heat up over the next few days with highs topping out in the lower 90s for most locations. While no threat of hazardous precipitation or storms is in the forecast, the combination of heat and humidity will lead to elevated heat stress across Arkansas on Sunday, and moderate heat stress by Monday afternoon. If you have outdoor plans and can focus your outdoor time to the morning or early evening hours, that will help avoid heat sickness for this mid May warm up.

Cavanaugh

LONG TERM
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

To begin the period, high pressure will control the weather pattern as an upper level trough will be located across the Rocky Mountains.
By late Tuesday into Wednesday...surface high pressure will push off to the east as a low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes region. This low pressure system will bring a cold front across the state by Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms possible.
Additional unsettled weather will be possible through at least Thursday as another shortwave trough moves over the CWA

It is still too early to mention specific details, but severe weather chances are possible...although on the lower end as of this forecast package. A big question regarding the severe weather chances with the system on Wednesday will be what time of day the storms move into the CWA

Temperatures are expected to be on the warmer side through much of the period. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Higher humidity will likely make temperatures feel slightly warmer.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 64 87 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 64 89 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 61 86 65 87 / 0 0 0 10 Hot Springs AR 64 89 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 67 89 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 66 89 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 63 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 61 87 65 88 / 0 0 0 10 Newport AR 65 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 65 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 64 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 64 88 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 67 88 69 90 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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