Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pahrump, NV

UPDATE
Current satellite imagery shows high clouds over the Mojave Desert and mid level clouds over the southern Great Basin.
Cloud cover will increase areawide today as an upper level disturbance moves into California and Nevada. High resolution guidance still indicates scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the southern Sierra and Great Basin later today, some of which may create breezy outflow winds. Although winds are light this morning, southwesterly winds will increase across the Mojave Desert ahead of the shortwave this afternoon. No forecast changes are needed at this time.

SHORT TERM
through Thursday.

Considerable mid and high clouds are evident early this morning across much of central and northern Nevada in advance of a weak trough dropping into the northern Rockies. Through the course of today, this cloud cover and pocket of enhanced mid and high level moisture will sag southward as a broad elongated trough axis takes shape across the Great Basin. This will encourage afternoon development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the southern Sierra eastward across the southern Great Basin.

This elongated trough axis will sag further south on Thursday and pinch off into a weak low over Southern California/Mojave Desert by Thursday afternoon. With precipitable water anomalies climbing into the 150-200% of normal range, some marginal instability will build across the deserts on Thursday which will allow for some isolated thunderstorms and pockets of very spotty light rain/sprinkles. Dry subcloud layer will keep chances of measurable rainfall limited, but sprinkles and virga induced gusty winds are certainly possible with DCAPE values of 750 j/kg or greater. Best chances for showers will be across the higher terrain of southern Nevada and the Mojave Desert, though a few sprinkles and gusty winds will be possible just about everywhere.

Aside from the precipitation chances, temperatures will remain seasonably warm with afternoon highs topping out a few degrees above normal both today and Thursday.

LONG TERM
Friday through Tuesday.

Model clusters remain in good agreement with each other, aside from the usual small differences in timing. Speaking of timing, there is a noticeable slowing trend in the models, which is not unusual. Friday, the weak pesky upper low is expected to begin ejecting to the east as the long-advertised big trough approaches the West Coast. This will allow temperatures to rise a few more degrees, and Friday is expected to be the warmest day for most of our area. There may be a few isolated weak showers/sprinkles lingering in the area Friday but mid level moisture will begin to thin out. Saturday is still expected to be the windiest day as the big trough comes ashore, with widespread gusts of 40+ mph across the region. Temperatures will begin to fall, but here is where the slower timing begins to come in. If this indeed comes to pass, the cooling will be felt more in our western zones, and areas farther east such as the Colorado River Valley and Mohave County could be similar to or even slightly warmer than Friday.
Precip chances will also begin to increase in the northwest corner of our CWA Sunday, precip chances reach their maximum, with the greatest chances in the southern Great Basin and the lowest chances south of I-40. Temperatures also crash hard as the trough evolves into a closed low and passes overhead. Highs should be 10 to 20 degrees cooler than Saturday, with some record coolest high temperatures for May 4th in jeopardy. The models' slowing trend also shows on Monday and Tuesday, as the low is much slower to move away to the east than in previous runs. If this pans out, precip chances would linger into Monday, and warmer temperatures would be delayed/tempered.



AVIATION
For Harry Reid
For the 12Z Forecast Package
Light winds following typical wind patterns are expected through later this morning when winds will pick up out of the southwest with gusts up to 20 knots. These breezier winds will continue into the evening hours before dropping below 10 knots with diurnal directional trends resuming. Increasing clouds are expected with CIGs down to 10kft possible tonight. Vicinity showers, and possibly even a thunderstorm, are expected in the higher terrain surrounding the Las Vegas Valley on Thursday afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California
For the 12Z Forecast Package
Light winds following typical diurnal directional trends with periods of lighter and variable winds will give way to breezy southwesterly winds with 15 to 25 knot gusts later this morning in the Las Vegas and Colorado River Valleys. These breezier winds will drop off this evening with winds resuming their typical diurnal directional trends. DAG will favor a southwesterly-to-westerly direction with breezier winds gusting to 25 knots this afternoon and evening. BIH will see winds pick up and settle in from the west-northwest as showers begin to develop in the higher terrain around Bishop. Variable breezy winds, precipitation, and low CIGS are expected at the terminal this afternoon into the early evening hours when precipitation will clear out and winds will decrease and fall to the northwest.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.