Pahrump, NV Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pahrump, NV

June 22, 2024 7:00 AM PDT (14:00 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:25 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM
Moonrise 9:22 PM   Moonset 5:40 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pahrump, NV
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Area Discussion for - Las Vegas, NV
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 210 AM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Daily temperatures are expected to peak around 6 to 8 degrees above normal through Monday leading to hot conditions across the region but not excessively hot. Increasing moisture over the weekend will lead to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms over Mohave County although activity could spread into Clark and San Bernardino counties on Sunday. Over our northern areas, hot and dry conditions will persist through next week.

Saturday through Monday.

SPC meso analysis shows dry conditions across our area this morning - generally under 0.50 inch precipitable water values.
There is a slightly higher moisture gradient ranging from 0.50 inch PWAT at the triple point where Nevada, California, and Arizona meet to 0.80 inch PWAT at the far southeast corner of Mohave County. However, moisture transport is weak and there is really no indication of any moisture surge towards our area at this point. Satellite imagery shows a definite southwest component to the flow aloft which will help in keeping our skies mostly clear with the exception of some scattered mid level clouds over southeast Mohave County.

As we go through the day today, a deep pool of moisture currently residing over southern Arizona, Baja, and the Gulf of California, is directed northward by an inverted trough embedded in the 700-500mb flow along the western periphery of high pressure to our east. This inverted feature is forecast, by the HRRR, to drive higher moisture between 1-1.50 inch PWATs into our southern areas by late this afternoon. PWATs between 0.75 and 1.00 inches reach into far northern Clark County and western San Bernardino County, as well as Death Valley National Park. The HRRR is forecasting little cloud cover today and mean CAPE values between 250 and 500 joules/kg over far eastern San Bernardino and far southwest Mohave County with a probability of CAPE exceeding 500 joules/kg at 30-40% in this same area. So we have 2 of 3 ingredients in place for thunderstorm development...moisture and instability. The HRRR is forecasting very little storm activity today and its probability for thunder is 0%. This could be due to the lack of any lifting mechanism outside of daytime heating and to warm temperatures aloft which would tend to cap convection. The HRRR holds off until late this afternoon in developing storms over the eastern part of Mohave County which then are forecast to move west to around Golden Valley in the evening before dissipating.
Interestingly, a couple of HRRR runs develop isolated showers or storms in Clark County over the southeastern Las Vegas Valley this afternoon. Will have to see if this trend holds.

Sunday is still looking like our most active day out of this initial monsoon moisture surge. Conditions across the southern regions of our area are forecast to moisten further - partly due to the westward progression of moisture from thunderstorms the previous evening. The HRRR has storms developing by late morning on Sunday with widespread isolated cells through the afternoon and early evening. The HRRR forecasts 10-12 degree Celsius dewpoint temps over the southeast CWA suggesting heavy rain producing thunderstorms are possible there on Sunday. Monday, the storm activity is largely confined to Mohave County although moisture remains in place across much of our southern desert areas.

Temperatures through Monday should be similar to what we had yesterday although they could be a touch cooler on Sunday depending on how much shower/storm activity we get. The latest probabilities of 110 degrees in Las Vegas is 50% today, dropping to 38% Sunday, then back to 50% on Monday. Heat Risk is generally in the moderate range through Monday with a small area of major heat risk in southern Inyo County and the Amargosa Valley. No heat related products are in effect or are anticipated through Monday.

Tuesday through Friday.

An extended period of hot weather is the main story though much of the week as an expansive area of high pressure sets up and holds across the Desert Southwest as is typical for this time of year.
There are indications the high flattens a little Thu-Fri in response to a trough swinging across the Intermountain Region. The latest NBM indicates daily high temperatures across the Mojave Desert zones will generally be in the 108-112 degree range which is several degrees above normal...but not uncommon for late June. The official forecast for Las Vegas holds at 108-109 for most days except peaks at 110 on Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 80s. While this is hot, the latest HeatRisk grids have backed off slightly on indicating areas of major HeatRisk (level 3) for Tue-Wed and mainly keep moderate across most of the region.

In addition, moisture will not be too far away over Arizona, and afternoon thunderstorms that develop over central or western Arizona the next few days could push outflow into southern Nevada and southeast California which would increase humidity/cloud cover and bring temperatures down a few degrees. This is already showing up in the latest HRRR and NBM which indicate outflow pushing into southern Clark and southeast San Bernardino County Saturday evening. It's the time of year when a lot can change from day to day due to distant thunderstorms and we will continue to monitor the potential for moisture intrusions into our area. Meanwhile, Mohave County will see the best potential for isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms.

For Harry Reid...Winds start of variable this morning.
Gusty southeasterly winds develop for a few hours in the late morning and early afternoon, transitioning to the south-southwest later in the afternoon. After sunset, wind speeds fall to less than 10 knots out of the southwest. There is a 40 to 50 percent chance of southwesterly gust development after midnight on Sunday morning.
Skies remain clear through the forecast period besides FEW cloud development over the Spring Mountains in the afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Gusty southerly winds develop across most of the area this afternoon, decreasing in the evening. There is a 40 to 50 percent chance of another round of southwesterly gusts after midnight in the Las Vegas Valley. Overall peak gusts between 15 and 20 knots are expected at Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley terminals, and up to 25 knots at KBIH. At KDAG, gusty easterly winds pick up later this morning, shifting to the southeast in the early afternoon and eventually the west in the evening. Skies remain clear through the forecast period besides FEW cloud development over mountain peaks in the afternoon.

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.

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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KINS CREECH AFB,NV 21 sm65 mincalm10 sm--
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