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FXUS65 KVEF 060947 AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 147 AM PST Wed Dec 6 2023

SYNOPSIS
Seasonally warm conditions today with strong winds in the Eastern Sierra. Gusty winds and cooling temperatures spread across the rest of the area Thursday and Friday as a system moves past. Temperatures begin to rebound early next week as high pressure builds in.

SHORT TERM
through Friday.

The trough that is currently directing an atmospheric river into the PacNW begins to come ashore this afternoon. A lead shortwave embedded in this trough will impact our northern and western zones this afternoon and evening. By this time, the moisture plume associated with the AR will be drastically diminished, which is why PoPs on our section of the Sierra are only ~10%. The main impact of this system will be winds on the eastern slopes of the Sierra. A Wind Advisory remains in effect from 10AM - 10PM today, with gusts of 55-65 mph likely. Down in the Owens Valley, the potential for impactful winds is much lower. Most of the valley has a less than 10% chance of seeing gusts over 40 mph, with only isolated spots on US-395 near Cartago and north of Independence having 30-50% probabilities. Elsewhere, expect breezy south winds of 10-25 mph, with stronger gusts on the high terrain.
Temperatures remain nearly 10 degrees above normal.

The upper-level pattern briefly becomes zonal before a secondary shortwave dives southeast on the backside of the aforementioned trough Thursday night. At the surface, west-southwest winds increase along and south of Interstate-15. Could see minor wind impacts over our western deserts as winds maximize around 40 mph on Thursday. 40- 60% probabilities of 40+ mph gusts exist in the Baker-Barstow- Twentynine Palms area, but coverage is somewhat spotty. Because of this, going to hold off on hoisting any wind headlines here, but will continue to monitor trends over the next 12-24 hours.
Temperatures begin to cool ahead of this shortwave as well, dropping 5-10 degrees in our northern/western areas and 3-5 degrees in our southern/eastern locations. Low PoPs (10-30%) appear in northern Lincoln and Mohave Counties Thursday night into Friday, but any amounts will be light.

The shortwave trough axis clears our CWA on Friday, pushing a cold front through and turning winds northerly. Latest NBM shows the strongest winds across southern Nevada and down the Colorado River Valley. Will have to monitor this wind regime for the need of wind headlines, particularly in the Colorado River Valley where north winds are often strongest. The cold front is forecast to drop temperatures back to seasonal normals, with highs generally in the 50s and low 60s across the area.

LONG TERM
Saturday through next Tuesday.

A ridge will move over the region for the weekend which will bring dry conditions and warming temperatures to the region through Monday. Cluster analysis shows consensus that a ridge will move into the West Coast, though there is some uncertain with how far inland the ridge will build which will influence how warm our temperatures will climb, especially on Monday. No matter how warm (or not warm)
it gets, ensembles show a high probability for normal temperatures on Sunday and Monday.

By Monday night into Tuesday, long range models hint at a weak shortwave that will knock down the ridge and bring cyclonic flow aloft to the region. Its not a very well resolved system and thus details with it are low confidence. HOwever, given the trajectory of the shortwave and the lack of a AR on IVT probability charts this far south, there should be minimal precipitation impacts. Wind probabilities are low for impactful levels at this point which makes sense since it is a weak system. At this point, a slight cool is the main thing to watch for this system.

AVIATION
For Harry Reid...Light southwest winds will persist through around 19z to 21z, with winds shifting from the northeast to east. Winds then shift back to the southwest after 00z. Wind speeds will generally remain 10 knots or less through 06z Thurs, but may increase slightly with gusts to around 15 to 20 knots 06z to 12z Thurs.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Winds will largely remain diurnally driven for most terminals. The exception will be KBIH, where a passing upper system will result in increasing south/southwest winds this afternoon and evening. While lower elevation winds will generally remain below 20 to 30 knots, higher elevation winds in these areas will range from 45 to 65 knots, particularly along the Sierra crest and the White Mountains. This may yield moderate to severe turbulence late this afternoon and tonight. Winds should gradually decrease into Thursday. Elsewhere, winds will generally remain 15 knots or less, though KDAG looks to see increasing westerly winds by 12z to 15z Thurs. Broken mid level ceilings may develop at KBIH, with only scattered high clouds expected elsewhere.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.

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