Lead Hill, AR Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lead Hill, AR

June 22, 2024 12:41 AM CDT (05:41 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM
Moonrise 8:47 PM   Moonset 5:04 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lead Hill, AR
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Area Discussion for - Little Rock, AR
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1234 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024


(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed an anticyclonic circulation in place over Arkansas while visible satellite imagery showed scattered fair weather cumulus cloud cover over the state. Both features are indicative of the dry weather pattern holding in place for much of Arkansas this afternoon. Temperatures were generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s as of 1 PM which likely represents the coolest we will be during the early afternoon hours through the upcoming weekend and into early next week.

A weak upper level disturbance is expected to move slowly east over the north central plains on Saturday and continuing east over the Great Lakes region on Sunday. The passage of this upper level disturbance will result in the dome of high pressure situated over the state to push west over Texas on Sunday. With the upper level high nudged off to our west, some very weak north or northwesterly flow aloft will make its way over Arkansas by Sunday afternoon.
This subtle shift in winds aloft is expected to be enough to send a highly modified cold front south into northern Arkansas by the peak heating hours of the day on Sunday. However a cold front is for all intents and purposes a misnomer as Arkansas is only likely to experience a wind shift to the west across much of the state while northwest winds creep across the Missouri border into northern Arkansas. The front is not expected to provide much if any relief from the heat on Sunday or into early next week as it is progged to simply stall and effectively wash out Sunday evening.

With a very warm and humid day expected across Arkansas, there is a tiny chance that we could see some isolated showers and/or thunderstorms along the front Sunday afternoon. If a few showers or storms do develop, they are not expected to produce enough rain cooled air to provide any relief from the heat. If the rain showers are indeed as transient as they appear in model data, they may only make things feel worse on Sunday by locally increasing the low-level humidity without producing enough rain to disperse the heat. Regardless of the small rain chances, heat headlines in the form of at least a heat advisory will likely be needed for much of the state, but especially in and around the Arkansas River Valley and across the lower terrain of the Mississippi Delta where heat index values are already expected to eclipse 105 degrees.
Although not in official use yet, Heat Risk will be in the Major Category, or a 3 out of 4 on the Heat Risk impacts scale. Heat Risk is an experimental product that is designed to account for many of the factors measured by the Heat Index and Wet Bulb Globe Temperature but also accounting for factors that the preceding indices cannot measure. The impact of heat and the likelihood of heat related headlines are only expected to increase as we head into early next week.

(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Message remains the same regarding the long term, w/ oppressive and hazardous heat set to return to the FA thru the middle portion of next week. Mean H500 ridging wl be in place over the Cont Divide thru much of the PD. The primary upper level high looks to stay displaced to the west of the FA, remaining centered over the Desert S/W regions, however, regionally hot and humid condns are expected acrs the Srn Cntrl US thru next week.

Mean upper N/Wrly flow wl reside acrs the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, w/ meager upper flow persisting over the FA. At the sfc, a region of high pressure wl be maneuvering acrs the OH River Valley on Mon, w/ a strong sfc low traversing acrs the Nrn Plains.
This wl setup a pattern for mean Srly to S/Wrly sfc flow acrs the FA and greater Srn Plains thru much of next week.

Temps thru the early half of the week wl approach the upper 90s, to near 100, or 100 degrees at most locations. Heat index values Mon and Tues wl easily reach or exceed heat advisory criteria, with maximum afternoon heat index values of 105-110 degrees common at most locations. In addition to hazardous afternoon heat, overnight low temps wl increase the potential heat hazard risks, w/ minimal overnight cooling potential expected, and overnight lows Mon, Tues, and Wed night only falling to the upper 70s, to near 80 degrees in most areas.

Some relief wl be noted by Wed and Thurs, as a prominent H500 shortwave is progged to eject thru the mean W-N/Wrly flow, and drive a round of widespread rain chances thru the day Wed and into Thurs.
Scattered to widespread precip is expected, providing slightly cooler temps to the low 90s for at least a few days.

This cool down wl lkly be short-lived, as upper ridging is expected to amplify again acrs the Wrn US by Fri. Greater synoptic subsidence should shut off local rain chances, and aftn temps wl lkly be on the rise again. However, broad sfc high pressure acrs the Great Lakes could bring the chance for a backdoor cdfrnt to usher in N/Erly sfc winds over the region, and provide some relief from higher dewpoints and overall mugginess by next weekend.

(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

High pressure continues to build over the area. The latest KLZK sounding indicates dry air aloft. Expect hot and dry conditions to continue with VFR conditions.

Batesville AR 93 76 96 75 / 0 0 10 10 Camden AR 96 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 10 Harrison AR 92 74 92 73 / 0 0 20 10 Hot Springs AR 95 73 99 76 / 0 0 0 10 Little Rock AR 96 78 99 79 / 0 0 10 10 Monticello AR 95 76 97 77 / 0 0 0 10 Mount Ida AR 93 73 96 73 / 0 0 0 10 Mountain Home AR 93 73 93 73 / 0 0 20 10 Newport AR 94 76 96 76 / 0 0 10 10 Pine Bluff AR 94 76 98 77 / 0 0 0 10 Russellville AR 96 75 97 76 / 0 0 10 10 Searcy AR 94 74 97 75 / 0 0 10 10 Stuttgart AR 93 77 96 79 / 0 0 0 10


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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBBG BRANSON,MO 13 sm26 minS 0310 smClear73°F64°F73%30.14
KHRO BOONE COUNTY,AR 13 sm48 mincalm10 smClear72°F64°F78%30.14
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