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FXUS64 KTSA 111112 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 512 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today)
Issued at 224 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Another mild and dry day is in store under NW flow aloft... with plentiful sunshine and highs in the 50s/ approaching 60 in southeast OK. Winds will remain fairly light out of the south/ southwest. A limited, localized fire weather threat may develop for a few hours this afternoon for portions of NW AR where winds could be a tad higher (up to 15-20 mph) and min RH falls to near 30%. Otherwise, the forecast continues to be quiet today.

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

The long term remains very similar to previous forecasts, primarily influenced by the trajectory of a desert SW upper low. Moisture begins to spread northward into Oklahoma ahead of this system on Tuesday, with clouds increasing from west to east during the day.
The best moisture return (and highest precip potential) is still projected to occur over western Oklahoma and the panhandles region with this system. Far western portions of our FA could see some low rain chances Wednesday, but opted to keep PoPs below mentionable since latest trends keep QPF further west. The upper low eventually makes its way into the southern plains late in the week.
Unfortunately, uncertainty remains regarding the track of the low, but most guidance maintains a more southern track which would tend to limit precip chances for our area. As a result, stuck pretty close to NBM until details become more clear. This keeps low chance PoPs generally restricted to along and south of I-40 Fri/ Sat. Much of the forecast area is running 20-50% of normal precipitation the last 30 days... so any rainfall would be welcome. This system departs late in the weekend with dry NW flow resuming.

Afternoon temps remain nearly steady in the mid-upper 50s this week, which is slightly above average for this time of year. Lows generally remain in the 30s through the period. Otherwise, no impactful weather is expected over the coming days, and any notable threat of winter weather remains elusive at this time.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites through the valid period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 58 33 57 37 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 58 33 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 60 33 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 57 27 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 55 31 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 55 33 58 37 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 57 32 58 37 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 54 30 56 37 / 0 0 0 0 F10 58 33 58 37 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 59 32 60 37 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.

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