Sunrise 6:26 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 10:09 PM   Moonset 6:45 AM

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FXUS64 KTSA 261133 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 633 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Deep warm and moist advection collocated with diffluence aloft beneath an advancing jet streak has and will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the night.
Previous model guidance had a robust signal for a strong to severe convective line to push through the area near daybreak. More recent guidance has trended away from this idea, with instead more scattered strong to severe storm activity developing. It is difficult to say whether these adjustments in the CAMs will ultimately be justified, but we are already seeing increasing radar activity with numerous showers and thunderstorms. Either way, expect a busy remainder of the night.

The setup Friday during the day will continue to favor warm and moist advection across the forecast area. Subsidence behind the wave that will move through this morning will presumably lead to quiet weather conditions during the mid to late morning. However, by the afternoon storms are expected to develop along the dry line. The atmosphere will be very unstable with perhaps 3000-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE and little in the way of capping. Additionally, deep moisture will be present with EPS values near and above the 99th percentile for low level moisture and moisture transport. Considering this moisture, instability, and ample shear, supercells will most likely develop. Any that do occur will be capable of very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. Depending on the degree of stabilization and rate of the eastward progression of the dry line, storms may form near the Tulsa area (lesser chance) or just east of it (greater chance). These storms will initially be discrete, but should merge together with time. Considering these uncertainties, kept Pops fairly low over northeast OK, assuming a few storms would form but many areas would also be dry. As storms congeal, pops are a bit higher for northeast AR. The SPC has handled this with a slight risk over much of the area, which seems very reasonable. The WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall, as locally training storms on wet ground could result in minor flooding.

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

During the day Saturday an unusually deep surface low will rapidly strengthen across western Kansas, reinvigorating the southerly flow with impressive instability and wind shear developing. EPS EFI for both Cape-Shear and QPF has values of 0.7 to 0.8 over the area. EPS moisture values will again be near and above the 99th percentile for EPS climatology for the date.The general details paint a picture of a higher end severe weather day. Storms will likely develop along the dry line as a shortwave ejects eastwards, with tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind all possible (10-30% chance within 25 miles of any given point). A strengthening LLJ in the evening will help to prolong storm activity. Storms will gradually transition into a line of very heavy rainfall, with some some model guidance showing several inches of rain being possible in spots. The SPC has maintained an enhanced risk for Saturday with WPC showing a moderate risk of excessive rainfall leading to flooding Saturday into Sunday.
Details on the exact locations and timing will presumably come into better focus over the next 24 hours so stay tuned.

Heavy rainfall will translate eastwards Sunday before moving out of the area. A short break from the stormy weather is expected, but additional rain and thunder chances will move back into the area early next week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Line of storms moving across NE OK and possibly NW AR later this morning to bring reduced flight conditions in the near term. After the morning round, some isolated to widely scattered storms are expected to develop this afternoon. With coverage still looking on the lower side, elected to use VCTS for the E OK sites, and PROB30s for the NW AR sites to cover. After this round of storms, expected much of tonight to be quiet. After a period of VFR conditions this evening, MVFR cigs are expected to return late tonight with LLWS conditions over in NW AR.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 81 68 80 62 / 90 10 70 90 FSM 76 67 82 66 / 90 40 70 60 MLC 77 67 80 64 / 90 20 70 80 BVO 82 64 80 60 / 60 10 70 90 FYV 73 63 79 63 / 100 40 60 60 BYV 73 64 80 63 / 90 40 50 50 MKO 76 66 80 62 / 90 20 60 80 MIO 75 66 81 62 / 100 20 60 80 F10 78 66 79 62 / 90 10 70 90 HHW 75 66 80 64 / 90 30 70 70

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.

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