Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Middleburg, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 900 PM Friday...

It is another quiet night on radar across central NC. Only a few spotty showers are present across the far western Piedmont. A few isolated showers are also present over the northern Coastal Plain tied to the westward moving sea breeze. The majority of the storm activity is presently located over eastern TN and eastern AL to northern GA. This is tied to a broad shortwave trough extending from the OH valley into the TN valley and Deep South. Much of the guidance shows that weak shortwave energy tied to the trough will advance eastward overnight to early Sat morning, bringing with it the chance of isolated or scattered showers, mainly across the western and southern Piedmont. The greatest concentration of convection is currently in northern GA. Some guidance shows this remaining to our south in SC, while other CAMs show it holding together before weakening when reaching the Triangle Sat morning.
For now, have kept low-end chance PoPs overnight with the feature advecting into the region, highest west of US-1. With limited instability by the time any showers arrive, showers will likely struggle to hold together. Lows should stay mild with low to middle 60s under cloudy skies.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 100 PM Friday...

As the surface low over the Lower Great Lakes region slowly continues to move northeast, the trailing cold font extends down along the Appalachian Mountains and into the Southern Plains. As the trough shifts across the region during the day Saturday expect more isolated to scattered showers and storms. In the afternoon as the back end of the trough begins to exit the region along with the cold front giving it a little more lift, we could see an increase in coverage with showers and storms. Therefore, highest pops are in the late morning to early evening hours. Precip amounts are overall expected to be light varying from a few hundredths in the NW Piedmont to a tenth of an inch over the coast plain. However, there could be a few stronger storms that bring isolated amounts higher than this. The precip will clear in the NW in the late afternoon with the final push of the front exiting the Coastal Plain region shortly after midnight. Temperatures will range from the low 80s in the north to mid 80s south. After the front pushes through NW flow will begin to filter in cooler air with overnight lows in the upper 40s north to upper 50s SE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 130 PM Friday...

With the cold front well offshore by Sunday morning high pressure will be filtering cooler air Sunday and Monday. Highs will be in the 70s each day with dew points in the low to mid 40s. As the surface high pressure shifts off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning a weak trough follows it bringing the next chance of showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. After that boundary lifts north a cold front slowly moving into the region will bring showers and storms for the late week time frame with the beach chance for precip in the afternoon and early evening hours.

Temperatures mid to late week will be well above normal with the warmest day expected to be Wednesday with high temps across the region in the upper 80s and warmer spots hitting 90 degrees. As the next weather system inches closer and afternoon precip chances increase temperatures will top out each afternoon in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 730 PM Friday...

Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible mainly in the Triad overnight. Otherwise, MVFR to IFR cigs will likely develop between 09z and 12z, then persist through around late morning Saturday.

Outlook: Scattered showers and storms will be possible along a cold front as it pushes through the area Saturday afternoon; best chances will be GSO/INT 18-21z, RDU 21-00z, RWI/FAY 22-02z. Gusty pre- frontal southwest winds as well as post-frontal northwest to northerly winds of 15 to 20 kts will be possible.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.