Middleburg, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
L-36.com
Top   Marine   7-Day   NWS   Buoy   Airport   Tide   Map   GEOS   Radar   TAF  

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Middleburg, NC

June 22, 2024 2:17 AM EDT (06:17 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM
Moonrise 8:46 PM   Moonset 5:02 AM 
  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  News
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      HIDE   Help

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middleburg, NC
   Hourly   EDIT   Help   Map   HIDE
NEW! Add second zone forecast


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
      HIDE   Help   
NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KRAH 220520 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 120 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure aloft will remain in control ahead of a weak upper level trough that will move across the Middle Atlantic on Sunday. A pre-frontal trough and weak cold front will move into NC Monday afternoon and night, then lift northeastward across the Middle Atlantic as a warm front Tuesday and Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 925 PM Friday...

No major changes with the evening update. The 00Z upper air analyses show the 596 dam H5 high over the mid-MS Valley, with central NC on the eastern periphery of the high. At H7 and H85, the area of low pressure sits just off the FL/GA coast, almost due east of the state line. There is a tight gradient in the H7 moisture from the southern Coastal Plain to the northern Piedmont of NC. At the surface, the low was located about 40 miles southeast of Brunswick, GA at 8 PM.
The 00Z surface analysis shows a tight dewpoint gradient across central NC, with some upper 50s/low 60s over the northern Piedmont and low/mid 70s over the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. The higher dewpoint air will continue to migrate nwwd through the area this eve/tonight, with dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s expected by daybreak Sat. Still expect lows to bottom out in the upper 60s/low 70s, with max RH values overnight near/at 100 percent. As mentioned in the earlier discussion, there is a good chance for fog/low stratus tonight, especially across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 PM Friday...

Slightly hotter yet, with forecast high temperatures about 6-12 F above average and centered in the middle 90s, or about a category on average higher than those of Fri.

A mid-level high now over the srn Appalachians and TN Valley will continue to gradually weaken while retreating swwd across the lwr MS Valley and srn Plains through 12Z Sun. An associated ridge axis will continue to extend from the center of the high newd and across the srn Appalachians and wrn Carolinas, while a weak mid-level trough/low now just offshore the NC coast will meander there and promote weakly cyclonic flow and slightly cooler mid-level temperatures over the ern Carolinas. Observed 500 mb temperatures were minus 7 C at MHX this morning versus minus 5 C at GSO, for example; and that should remain the case on Sat.

At the surface, on the wrn periphery of high pressure that will become anchored near and just northeast of Bermuda, an Appalachian- lee trough will develop and remain over the srn Middle Atlantic Foothills and wrn Piedmont. Surface flow, which in recent days has maintained a considerable ely to nely component around the Bermuda high, will assume a sly direction and favor both warming temperatures and increasing moisture/humidity. That sly flow will also favor appreciable inland penetration of a sea breeze across sern and cntl NC through Sat evening.

The aforementioned increasing low-level moisture/humidity will favor areas of morning fog and stratus through the srn/cntl Coastal Plain and ern Sandhills, with surface dewpoints mostly in the lwr 70s in the morning (except for lingering 60s F probable over the nw Piedmont). That moisture will remain somewhat shallow and prone to vertical advection/"mixing out" for one more day, however, such that the 70s of the morning should decrease into the mid/upr 60s with strong diurnal heating/mixing during the afternoon (except a lingering 70-72 F from CTZ to GSB) As such, despite the increasingly hot temperatures, related Heat Index values are apt to remain mostly in the mid to upr 90s, to around 100 F in climatologically-favored areas roughly east of US 1.

It will also remain mainly dry, though with a slight-small chance of afternoon showers/storms over the srn-cntl Coastal Plain and Sandhills (similar to that now over sern NC), where sea breeze forcing and the aforementioned slightly cooler mid-level temperatures will coincide. It will become increasingly muggy and warm overnight, with the development of areas of stratus accompanying a resurgence of surface dewpoints in the the lwr-mid 70s, and with similar low temperatures.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 300 PM Friday...

...Dangerously hot temperatures expected this weekend and into early next week...

Sunday/Monday...Fairly high confidence heat forecast for Sunday/Monday, with a few caveats as precip chances return to the forecast for the first time in a while.

Synoptically...Sunday will see the upper ridge responsible for the widespread heat begin a slow migration westward toward the Four Corners. This will result in somewhat lower heights aloft across the area as the flow becomes increasingly northwesterly, yet temperatures and heat indices will still approach dangerously high values Sunday afternoon. At the surface, the combination of increased southerly flow from the Bermuda High, along with increased remnant moisture from the weak trough over GA/SC will push dewpoints well into the mid 70s by Sunday morning, with little hope of mixing out much below the lower 70s later in the day. This, along with afternoon temps in the mid 90s, will likely translate to heat indices generally in the 102-105 degree range, especially for areas along and east of US-1 although arguably the entire forecast area (even the western Piedmont) could be within a degree or two of triple digit heat indices. One caveat at this point is the potential for cloud cover with the weak trough over GA/SC as it moves northward, along with the potential for some much-needed scattered showers and storms across the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain later in the day. If these showers develop (probabilities in the 20-30 percent range), it's likely they won't occur until after we've reached out high temperature for the day. We will continue to message the potential for dangerously hot temperatures not only Sunday, but into Monday as well.

At the same time, a weak synoptic surface boundary will be making its way through the Ohio Valley, gradually crossing the mountains and arriving in NC at some point during the day on Monday. Strong southerly flow ahead of the front will allow for another dangerously hot/humid day on Monday. There is a signal in the guidance for a period of cloud cover/showers/isolated storms coincident with the frontal passage, but the exact timing at which this will happen is still unclear. Most of the guidance advertises a decaying line of showers moving through the area overnight, eventually redeveloping across the Coastal Plain Monday afternoon. Thu guidance is clear that somewhat drier air will follow the front, with dewpoints in the Triad retreating in the mid 60s by the afternoon while remaining in the low to mid 70s to the east. Thicknesses behind this front aren't notably lower, thus temperatures will once again top out in the mid/upper 90s. However with drier air in place to the west, the primary threat area for heat-related concerns appears to once again be located from US-1 eastward.

Tuesday/Wednesday: Tuesday will see limited precip chances across the area as the influences of subsidence in the wake of Monday's departing trough take hold over the area, not to mention the intrusion of lower dewpoints (mid 60s) across the area. Once again, thicknesses remain relatively unchanged and temps within the post- frontal regime will reach the mid to upper 90s. Return flow around the Bermuda High will allow dewpoints to return to the 70s on Wednesday and with temps once again in the mid/upper 90s, heat indices are likely to make another return into the triple digits Wednesday afternoon. Scattered showers will be possible especially across the western Piedmont and Sandhills Wednesday as moisture returns to the area, although chances remain low in the 20-30 percent range.

Thursday/Friday: Another longwave trough and associated surface convergent boundary appear on target to cross the mountains and sweep through the Mid Atlantic late in the week, at this point with the highest probabilities Thursday afternoon/evening. Grand ensemble precip probabilities are generally in the 40-50 percent range for Thursday and this seems more than reasonable at this stage given an approaching surface boundary, abundant moisture, and instability.
Much like the boundary earlier in the week, somewhat lower dewpoints will be drawn into the area to close out the week, but this time also accompanied by slightly lower temps in the upper 80s/lower 90s.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 120 AM Friday...

24-hour TAF period: Increasing low-level moisture in the form of +70 dewpoints into the coastal plain, sandhills, and now the eastern Piedmont counties will support a chance for IFR to MVFR restrictions in stratus and/or fog at KFAY and KRWI, and possibly KRDU.
Meanwhile, KGSO and KINT should remain VFR overnight.

The stratus/fog should scour out relatively quickly, between 12-14z, with scattered VFR cumulus clouds again this afternoon.

Outlook: An approaching cold front will support a slight chance of showers and storms and related sub-VFR restrictions on Sunday, with better coverage on Monday. Tuesday should be mostly dry before isolated showers and storms may return on Wednesday especially west.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

June 22: KRDU: 100/2022 KFAY: 101/2022

June 23: KRDU: 100/1986 KFAY: 102/1981

June 24: KRDU: 99/2010 KFAY: 102/1914

June 25: KRDU: 100/1952 KFAY: 102/1914

June 26: KRDU: 102/1952 KFAY: 101/1951

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 22: KGSO: 75/1981 KRDU: 78/1933

June 23: KGSO: 74/2015 KRDU: 77/1890 KFAY: 77/2017

June 24: KGSO: 76/2015 KRDU: 76/1888 KFAY: 79/2010

June 25: KGSO: 75/2015 KRDU: 77/2010 KFAY: 75/1952

June 26: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 76/1902 KFAY: 76/1997

June 27: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 77/1998

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       HIDE   Help




Airport Reports
    EDIT      HIDE   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KHNZ
   
NEW Forecast page for KHNZ (use "back" to return)

Wind History graph: HNZ
(wind in knots)
toggle option: (graph/table)


Tide / Current for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
   
EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   HIDE   Help
Petersburg
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:49 AM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:42 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:35 PM EDT     2.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:10 PM EDT     Full Moon
Fri -- 11:19 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
1
1
am
1.9
2
am
2.8
3
am
3.4
4
am
3.5
5
am
3.3
6
am
2.8
7
am
2.2
8
am
1.7
9
am
1.1
10
am
0.7
11
am
0.4
12
pm
0.4
1
pm
0.8
2
pm
1.6
3
pm
2.4
4
pm
2.8
5
pm
2.8
6
pm
2.6
7
pm
2.1
8
pm
1.5
9
pm
1
10
pm
0.7
11
pm
0.5


Tide / Current for Chester, James River, Virginia
   EDIT      HIDE   Help
Chester
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:02 AM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:43 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:48 PM EDT     2.79 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:10 PM EDT     Full Moon
Fri -- 11:20 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Chester, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.8
1
am
1.7
2
am
2.6
3
am
3.2
4
am
3.4
5
am
3.3
6
am
2.8
7
am
2.2
8
am
1.6
9
am
1.1
10
am
0.7
11
am
0.4
12
pm
0.3
1
pm
0.7
2
pm
1.5
3
pm
2.2
4
pm
2.7
5
pm
2.8
6
pm
2.5
7
pm
2.1
8
pm
1.5
9
pm
1
10
pm
0.6
11
pm
0.4


Weather Map
      HIDE   Help


GEOS Local Image of east us   
EDIT   HIDE



Raleigh/Durham, NC,




NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE