Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sunbury, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 6:24PM Monday October 21, 2019 4:31 AM EDT (08:31 UTC) Moonrise 11:41PMMoonset 1:29PM Illumination 48% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ633 Currituck Sound- 407 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 am edt this morning...
Through 7 am..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Today..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to 5 kt after midnight, then becoming se late. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..N winds 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..S winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 407 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure will continue northeast and away from the delmarva today, meanwhile high pressure will build into the local area. A strong cold front will cross the region Tuesday night. High pressure returns for the mid week period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sunbury, NC
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location: 36.54, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 210801
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
401 am edt Mon oct 21 2019

Synopsis
Weak high pressure builds into the area through this evening.

A strong cold front will cross the region Tuesday. High
pressure returns for the midweek period.

Near term through tonight
As of 345 am edt Monday...

latest sfc analysis shows ~1006 mb low pressure centered
offshore of the DELMARVA coast. In its wake, overcast
skies gusty N winds continue to prevail across the area. Cc z
radar product showing some very light rain drizzle prevailing
along the lower bay tidewater this morning.

Weak sfc high pressure over the piedmont will slowly build east
into the area today. However, low and mid levels remain moist.

And given light N winds, no real mechanism in place to quickly
dislodge clouds quickly this morning. Will likely see some
breaks in the overcast and perhaps some opaque sunshine across
the piedmont by afternoon. Otherwise, grids will average out
mostly cloudy for most... Partly cloudy well inland. Highs today
mid- upr 60s.

Clouds may briefly start to thin this evening, but will increase
all over again overnight ahead of next system currently over the
oh tn river valleys this morning. Remaining dry early, but some
weak overrunning will start to push toward the area late
tonight. We will have a chance of showers return to the forecast
over the western third of the area late tonight, after 06z 2a
edt Tuesday. Increasing clouds and a bit milder with lows in the
50s to near 60.

Short term Tuesday through Thursday
As of 345 am edt Monday...

another active weather day expected on Tuesday. Deepening low
pressure will pivot across the great lakes region early Tuesday,
becoming occluded as it moves into into ERN canada Tuesday aftn.

The attendant sfc cold front will be approaching the area to
begin the day on Tuesday, and will cross the local area late
tue into Tue night. Ample gulf moisture is progged to stream ne
toward the region ahead of the front, and indeed pops are in
likely to categorical range (60-80%) over the western half of
the area or showers occasional rain through much of Tuesday
morning aftn W an additional quarter to half-inch of rainfall
expected. However, the main complicating factor is with several
weak perturbations out ahead of the front, which could lead to
another sfc low forming along the approaching boundary over the
coastal carolinas.

Cams each handle approaching front... And the pre-frontal wave...

a little bit differently, but all can agree that theta-e ridge
will lift SW to NE glancing the SE coastal plain late Tuesday
afternoon, then slipping offshore Tuesday night. This feature
will provide a quick influx of moist llvl air (td climbs into
the upper 60s to ~70 ahead of the front along the SE coast
Tuesday aftn). Given the resultant marginal sfc instability and
favorable forcing for ascent, potential does exist for a short-
lived round of strong to severe storms across the far SE corner
of the local area (mainly NE nc and possibly into the eastern
tidewater area) after 18z 2pm on Tuesday into early Tuesday
evening. The SPC has now placed this area in a day 2 slight
risk, and this will need monitoring over the next day or so.

Farther inland, forecast soundings look quite stable, with
lifted indices remaining neutral to positive through the day and
clouds showers ongoing through Tue aftn. While a rumble or two
of thunder cannot be totally discounted across central
va northern neck ERN shore, will keep thunder confined to the se
corner of the local area at this time and will maintain mention
in hwo.

Behind the front, rain clears out from west to east late. Lows
low 40s nw... Mid 40s to mid 50s elsewhere.

Cooler and drier for Wed thu, as cool high pressure builds
in from the w-sw post-frontal and becomes centered over the
local area on thu. Highs in the mid 60s to around 70 on
Wednesday, and in the upper 60s to low 70s on Thursday. Chilly
early morning lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Wed night.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday
As of 345 pm edt Sunday...

sfc high slides offshore Thursday night. Model solutions then
diverge with respect to the evolution of the trough from Friday
through next weekend. The ECMWF gem are forecasting an upper low
to form near the base of the trough in the SRN plains and very
slowly move ewd through the weekend (with our area remaining dry
through most of sat). The GFS has a more progressive solution
(w rain moving into the area by late Fri before the trough axis
crosses the region Sat night). For now, went with a model blend
with no higher than chc pops for the Fri night-sun timeframe.

Will continue to monitor model trends during the next few days.

High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s on Thu fri
and lows mainly in the 40s inland with low 50s near the coast
(some upper 30s possible on Thu with the high near over the
area). Slightly cooler next weekend W highs mainly in the 60s
(low 70s possible in far SE va NE nc).

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
As of 200 am edt Monday...

ifr CIGS prevail across the area early this morning, with some
lingering -ra dz near the coast. -ra dz slowly tapering off over
the next few hours as low pressure offshore of the delmarva
coast continues to pull farther offshore this morning. Still a
chc for some patchy 4sm br at ric toward sunrise (mainly 08-10z).

However, expecting the bulk of the <2sm br fg to remain in the
piedmont and have held out for the time being.

Mostly cloudy conditions persist through the day today, with
cigs improving to at least high-end MVFR by aftn (vfr possible
after 18z... Especially at ric). Winds become light and veer to
the ne-e by evening.

Outlook...

scattered showers and isolated tstms are expected ahead of a
cold front Tue which may result in brief periods of sub-vfr
conditions. High pressure builds into the area for the midweek
period.

Marine
As of 330 am edt Monday...

low pressure continues to lift NE off DELMARVA early this morning
and will continue to drift further away from the region throughout
the day. High pressure will build in for Monday. Wind directions
this morning will be N NW and eventually become N NE by later in the
day. Wind speeds continue to slowly decrease as the pressure
gradient relaxes however remain gusty this morning. Most locations
are now below gale criteria and will allow the warning to expire at
08z and will replace with a sca. While wind gusts will diminish
below 20kts later this morning, elevated waves seas will take much
longer to diminish. SCA for the bay will go until 20z for 3-5ft
waves, by later this afternoon waves should diminish to 2-3ft. Sca
for the coastal waters will initially go until 06z Tuesday but may
have to be extended further if seas are stubborn to subside. Seas
this morning will be 5-9ft, 4-7ft late this evening, and 3-5 ft
Tuesday morning.

Cold front crosses the area late Tuesday. Gusty NW winds 10-20kts
are expected through Wednesday morning in the wake of the frontal
passage. SCA winds seas are possible for a small window Wednesday
morning. High pressure then returns for Thursday and early
Friday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
anz630>632-634.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for anz633.

Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for anz638.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Tuesday for anz650-652-654-
656-658.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Mam
long term... Eri
aviation... Eri mam
marine... Cmf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 20 mi44 min N 8 G 15 60°F 68°F1013 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 26 mi44 min N 14 G 18 59°F 1013.2 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 29 mi50 min N 4.1 G 9.9 59°F 1013.8 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 29 mi50 min 66°F1013.5 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 32 mi50 min NNW 17 G 20 59°F 1013.1 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 37 mi44 min N 28 G 32 60°F 1012.7 hPa
44064 38 mi32 min N 21 G 29 60°F 66°F4 ft1012.6 hPa (+2.2)
44087 38 mi32 min 66°F4 ft
CHBV2 41 mi50 min N 26 G 32 60°F 1011.8 hPa
44072 47 mi32 min ENE 19 G 23 59°F 65°F3 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 47 mi44 min NNW 19 G 26 60°F 1011.7 hPa
FRFN7 47 mi152 min 5 ft
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 47 mi44 min NNW 14 G 17 58°F 66°F1013.7 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 48 mi32 min 69°F7 ft
44041 - Jamestown, VA 49 mi32 min 57°F 65°F1 ft1014.8 hPa (+1.5)
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 49 mi32 min 67°F7 ft

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA11 mi37 minNNW 510.00 miOvercast58°F58°F100%1014.2 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA13 mi37 minNNW 87.00 miOvercast57°F56°F97%1013.5 hPa
Franklin / J B Rose, VA24 mi37 minN 410.00 miOvercast57°F57°F99%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSFQ

Wind History from SFQ (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW10W7NW5
G16
NW3NW7W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Nansemond River, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:33 AM EDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 10:27 AM EDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:02 PM EDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:38 PM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.92.73.33.73.73.32.721.3111.42.12.93.74.34.54.33.832.11.41

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.