Sunday, January19, 2020
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L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sunbury, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:18PM Sunday January 19, 2020 8:34 PM EST (01:34 UTC) Moonrise 2:17AMMoonset 1:05PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ633 Currituck Sound- 658 Pm Est Sun Jan 19 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt. . Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 658 Pm Est Sun Jan 19 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front moves well south of the waters by tonight. Turning much colder early this week, as canadian high pressure slowly builds toward the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sunbury, NC
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location: 36.54, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 192348 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 648 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

SYNOPSIS. Cold high pressure builds across the region through midweek. Much colder air spills across the region tonight through Tuesday night . with temperatures slowly moderating for the latter half of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. As of 230 PM EST Sunday .

Latest weather analysis reveals potent and deepening sfc low pressure over the Canadian maritimes this afternoon. The associated surface cold front is now offshore. A secondary cold front is currently pushing across the region, with cooler and drier air pushing across the region. Gusty downslope flow has kept temperatures from falling too far thus far. However, expect temperatures to plummet as winds partially de-couple through this evening. Temps fall into the 30s after sunset, and into the 20s to mid 30s by midnight. Overnight lows mainly in the 20s tonight, though some upper teens possible in the typically colder spots.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 230 PM EST Sunday .

Strong cold air advection continues Monday with brisk NW winds combining to result in a raw day across the region despite a mostly sunny sky. Bay-streamer clouds are possible downstream (south and southeast) of the Ches bay on Monday as cold, dry air interacts with the relative warmth of the waters. High temperatures will only warm into the mid to upper 30s with wind chill values staying in the upper 20s for the majority of the area. Winds decrease over land areas on Monday night but remain elevated over the water. Overnight lows range from the mid-upper teens west of I-95 to mid and upper 20s SE.

Continued cold and dry Tuesday, with highs remaining below normal. Thickness tools in agreement with cool side of MOS guidance envelope, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 30s despite a mainly clear/sunny sky. Clear and cold once again Tuesday night with early morning lows in the upper teens to mid 20s . to near 30 SE.

Models suggest the formation of a cut-off low near the GA/SC coast Tuesday night. However, models are in good agreement in taking this wave well offshore, with cyclogenesis occurring well away from the local area, thus minimizing any sensible weather impacts across the local area.

Behind this wave, modifying sfc high builds over the Mid- Atlantic and northeast Conus on Wednesday. Thicknesses begin to climb, signaling the start of a moderating temp trend. Slightly less cold on Wednesday with highs climbing to near normal in the low to mid 40s, under a mainly sunny sky.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 230 PM EDT Sunday .

Medium range period characterized by dry conditions and gradually moderating temperatures. Rain chances increase by late in the week into the weekend. Forecast period begins with high pressure at the sfc and aloft in place over the region Wednesday evening, with quiet weather persisting through Thu night. Highs in the 50s Thu/Fri. Lows in the 20s to mid 30s Wed/Thu night, mid 30s to mid 40s Friday night.

Our next weather maker will come from a developing upper trough over the central Plains Wed night and Thursday, with that system then lifting northeast Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Friday/Friday night. Remaining dry Wednesday night through Friday morning, with rain chances ramping up Friday night and Saturday. Kept PoPs in the chance range at this time with typical temporal differences between the deterministic models, though models are reasonably clustered with ensembles for this time range. PWs

Other big story weather-wise will be with quickly moderating temperatures. Pre-frontal warm front will lift across the region over the course of next weekend, with temperatures moderating back toward then above normal Saturday and Sunday (highs in the 50s to low 60s, lows in the 30s and 40s). The attendant sfc cold front approaches and crosses through the area sometime late next weekend . but with the Pacific origins of that airmass, expect temperatures to only fall back to around climo normal. In short, outside of the chilly temperatures in the short term, no chances of wintry weather to be found over the next 10 days.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 745 AM EST Sunday .

Mostly clear skies will remain through Monday night. The only exception will be south of the Chesapeake Bay. Clouds will likely form over the bay and move SSE as cold air continues to move into the area. This will likely only affect KORF, during the late morning and early afternoon. Northerly winds will remain elevated tonight and into tomorrow (N 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt) then slowly come down Monday evening.

Outlook: VFR conditions persist through Wed as cold high pressure builds back across the region.

MARINE. As of 300 PM EST Sunday .

Latest sfc analysis reveals low pressure tracking ewd near the Canadian Maritimes, with the initial cold front now just south of the waters. Winds are now out of the N-NW at 15-20 kt. Seas are 4-6 ft N/4-5 ft S, with waves of 2-3 ft on the Ches Bay. The primary CAA then arrives this evening into tonight and NW winds will increase to 22-27 kt with some gusts to ~30 kt for the Bay/ocean (even a few gusts to ~35 kt possible off the MD coast and across the nrn Ches Bay with the initial CAA this evening). Solid SCA conditions are expected for the remainder of the night, with 22-25 kt sustained winds over the bay/ocean, and 18-20 kt winds over the rivers/Currituck Sound. Seas build to 4-6 ft tonight across all marine zones, with a few 7 ft seas possible 20 nm offshore. Waves on the Bay build to 3-4 ft tonight. Seas Monday range from 4-5 ft N to 5-6 ft S. The wind is expected to become NNW at around 20 kt for the ocean/Bay/Sound and diminish to ~15 kt on the rivers. However, it looks like winds will fall below SCA criteria for only a few hours on Monday on the Lower James River. SCAs have been extended through 12z/7 AM Tue for the Ches Bay, Lower James River, srn three coastal zones, and Currituck Sound. SCAs for the upper rivers have only been extended through 15z/10 AM Mon, as wind gusts should diminish below SCA thresholds during the day on Monday and remain just below SCA thresholds Monday night.

High pressure remains NW of the region Monday night, and another (weaker) push of low-level CAA should maintain a N wind of 15-20kt, thus the extension of SCAs for the Ches Bay, Lower James River, Currituck Sound, and srn coastal waters (mainly for seas). There is not enough confidence attm to extend SCA headlines for the coastal waters N of Parramore Island, but there is a chc that 5 ft seas linger for at least part of Monday night across the nrn two coastal zones. High pressure slowly builds toward the region Tuesday into Wednesday before becoming centered from PA to the mountains of VA by 12z/7 AM Wed. 12z/19 models continue to show low pressure developing off the GA/SC coast on Tue before tracking ewd to a position well offshore of the southeast CONUS coast by Wed. The wind will become NNE by early Wed AM with speeds of ~15 kt N to ~20 kt S, and could reach 20-25 kt off the Currituck Outer Banks. This will likely maintain at least 5-6 ft seas S of Cape Charles through at least Wed AM. Seas could certainly reach 7 ft off the NE NC coast during this time. Seas subside to 3-4 ft N of Cape Charles by Tue, with 2-3 ft waves in the Bay. High pressure builds over the region Wednesday night into Thursday and slowly slides offshore Friday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>634-638- 654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ650-652.

SYNOPSIS . MAM NEAR TERM . MAM SHORT TERM . MAM/RHR LONG TERM . MAM AVIATION . CP/MAM MARINE . AJZ/ERI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 20 mi53 min N 13 G 19 41°F 51°F1017.2 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 26 mi47 min N 14 G 21 40°F 1017.7 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 29 mi53 min SE 2.9 G 8 39°F 1018.2 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 29 mi53 min 49°F1017.8 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 32 mi53 min N 23 G 29 39°F 1017.5 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 37 mi47 min NNW 29 G 34 40°F 1017.6 hPa
44064 38 mi35 min N 29 G 37 48°F4 ft1017.7 hPa (+5.2)
44087 38 mi35 min 47°F4 ft
CHBV2 41 mi53 min N 29 G 32 39°F 1015.8 hPa
44072 47 mi35 min ENE 23 G 29 38°F 47°F4 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 47 mi47 min N 22 G 29 44°F 1015.3 hPa
FRFN7 47 mi95 min 5 ft
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 47 mi47 min NNW 22 G 27 38°F 48°F1017.8 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 48 mi35 min 50°F5 ft
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 49 mi35 min 49°F6 ft

Wind History for Money Point, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA11 mi40 minN 11 G 1710.00 miFair40°F25°F56%1018.6 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA13 mi40 minN 10 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy40°F22°F50%1017.9 hPa
Franklin / J B Rose, VA24 mi40 minN 510.00 miFair38°F23°F55%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSFQ

Wind History from SFQ (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S5S6S8S7S8S7S6SW6S9SW6
2 days agoN5N8
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N7N4N3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Nansemond River, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:58 AM EST     3.81 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:19 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:04 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:17 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:17 PM EST     3.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.30.21.12.133.63.83.62.921.10.3-0.1-00.51.222.732.92.41.60.7-0

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.