Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ebony, VA
December 10, 2023 5:10 AM EST (10:10 UTC)
Sunrise 7:09AM Sunset 4:56PM Moonrise 4:46AM Moonset 3:04PM
ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 337 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through this evening...
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Monday morning...
Through 7 am..S winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of rain.
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain until late afternoon. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Rain late.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft, increasing to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Rain with a chance of tstms in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of snow in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Tue..NW winds 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves around 1 foot, diminishing to 1 foot or less and light chop after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through this evening...
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Monday morning...
Through 7 am..S winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of rain.
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain until late afternoon. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Rain late.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft, increasing to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Rain with a chance of tstms in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of snow in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Tue..NW winds 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves around 1 foot, diminishing to 1 foot or less and light chop after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 337 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
a strong cold front will approach from the west today, bringing strong southerly winds to the local waters. The front will cross the region tonight, with strong winds shifting to the northwest. High pressure builds in from the west Monday night into Tuesday.
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
a strong cold front will approach from the west today, bringing strong southerly winds to the local waters. The front will cross the region tonight, with strong winds shifting to the northwest. High pressure builds in from the west Monday night into Tuesday.
Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KRAH 100924 AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 424 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will consolidate and strengthen along a cold front that will cross NC today, then rapidly deepen while tracking up the coast up the coast of middle Atlantic and Northeast tonight into Monday.
Seasonably chilly high pressure will follow and extend across the Southeast through early to mid next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 350 PM Saturday...
A high amplitude upper trough, extending south from a low over Hudson Bay to the Gulf Coast, will sharpen as it shifts eastward on Sun. A few embedded s/w disturbances moving through the parent trough will further impact the progression and orientation of the trough. A pair of disturbances, one over the Deep South and the other over the TN/OH Valley, will lift ENE in tandem through the Southeast and mid-Atlantic late Sun/Sun night. The disturbances could help the trough become quasi-negatively tilted over the region. At the surface, a strengthening cold front will approach the Appalachians on Sun, then move into and through central NC Sun eve/night. An area of low pressure may develop along the front as it moves into the Carolinas. Expect both the front and low to move out of the area early Mon morning. Confluent SSW flow off the Gulf ahead of the front and SSE return flow around the Bermuda high will result in anomalously high moisture advection into the area. PWATs should increase into the 1.4 to 1.6 inch range through Sun aft/eve. There will likely be multiple rounds of convection, one moving in from the west early Sun and the other late Sun aft/eve into Sun night. Rain should be exiting the area to the northeast by daybreak Mon.
Severe Potential: One of the big questions will be how how far NW the warm front will retreat through the area, and whether or not the rain falling over the cooler air in the NW Piedmont will keep them locked into the stable side of the boundary. MUCAPE of generally 500- 800 J/Kg is expected across the area, highest across the south and east and peaking during the evening, although the forecast MLCAPE is slightly lower. The effective shear should be around 40 kts. There is at least a chance of thunder in the NW Piedmont on Sun, but the better chance for thunder and potentially strong to severe storms late Sun morn/early aft will be across the southern and eastern Piedmont. The second round of convection is a bit less certain wrt severe potential and overall character. While the convective parameters appear to maximize during the late aft/eve, it depends how much the earlier showers and storms work the environment over.
If storms are able to tap into some higher instability late, then additional strong to severe storms may occur.
In addition to the wind potential associated with the storms, wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are possible. Also, hi-res model guidance suggest there may be a brief period of stronger wind gusts, 35 to 45 mph, mainly over the Sandhills and Coastal Plain as the surface low and rain lift NE out of the area Sun night.
Precipitation: Confidence is increasing that rainfall totals could be in the 2-2.5 inch range by the end of the event, with anomalously high PWATs of 1.4 to 1.6 inches. While there is still a Marginal risk for isolated flash flooding, the system still appears fairly progressive and training of storms are not anticipated. Best chances for isolated flash flooding will generally be over the urban areas and areas of poor drainage. Lastly, have introduced a slight chance for a brief period of snow mixing in with the rain as the system lifts out Sun night. Confidence is relatively low, but the chance is there nonetheless. No impacts or accumulation expected.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 420 AM Sunday...
Lingering troughiness will be positioned over Quebec down through the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning, but the potent PV anomaly responsible for the storm system moving through Sun night, will have shifted up into VA/MD by this time. The parent trough will shift over the Northeast through the day allowing for westerly confluent flow aloft to overspread the area through Mon night. At the surface, this translates to a rapidly deepening area of low pressure off the Northeast coast while high pressure strengthens while shifting over the southern Appalachians. Strong and deep CAA behind the cold front will continue to mix down strong winds through the morning hours with NW gusts 25-30 mph. Due to the progressive nature of the surface features, the pressure gradient will quickly begin to relax Sun afternoon with gusts weakening to 15-20 mph then subsiding around sunset.
Highs will be 15-25 degrees cooler than Sun thanks to the cold fropa and strong CAA. Downsloping NW winds may offset the cooling a bit, but highs should only reach into the upper 40s to low 50s. A relaxing pressure gradient and period of calm winds underneath clear skies will lead to radiational cooling allowing lows to fall into the low/mid 20s across the Piedmont with mid/upper 20s in urban areas and the Sandhills and southern/central Coastal Plain.
.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 420 AM Sunday...
...Dry through the work week with low forecast confidence heading into the weekend...
Surface high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic will become reinforced behind a secondary cold front Wed night as an broad upper trough rotates through eastern Canada. The arctic airmass will be pushed through southern Mid-Atlantic as a nearly 1040mb surface high migrates into the OH Valley Wed into Wed night shifting over the Mid- Atlantic through Thurs night. Calm conditions underneath the Arctic high will result in the coldest conditions in the extended Fri morning with statistical guidance supporting lows in the 20s area wide.
Forecast attention shifts to the weekend as a mid/upper level closed low that becomes pinched off from the northern stream flow as upper ridging quickly rides over the top on Thurs. As which is often the case, forecast confidence decreases on the evolution of shortwave that is briefly cut off from the northern stream branch. GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance is understandably very broad with the mean 500mb flow during this time, but does show troughing in the vicinity of the closed low over the Four Corners Region that slowly meanders east into the lower MS Valley Sat into Sat night. Given the directed SW flow over the area as high pressure shifts offshore and broad low pressure develops in the northern GOM and tracking east with time towards the Southeast, support at least a continuation of slight chance PoPs into the area late Sat. Temperatures will trend towards near normal after the moderating Arctic high weakens and moves offshore late week into the weekend.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 115 AM Sunday...
Strengthening and increasingly moist southerly low-level flow over cntl NC will cause IFR/LIFR conditions and also LLWS to develop this morning, ahead of cold front now nearing the wrn slopes of the cntl and srn Appalachians. A lead, pre-frontal band of showers and storms are forecast to approach the Triad terminals around 10-12Z, then continue ewd and across the rest of cntl NC through the midday to afternoon hours. A secondary, narrow line of showers and storms are forecast to develop and intensify along the advancing cold front across SC and srn and ern NC, including at FAY, RWI, and perhaps as far west as RDU, early tonight, during which time a large area of post-frontal rain will otherwise blossom and overspread all of cntl NC.
Outlook: Strong and gusty nwly winds 20-30 kts will result behind the front tonight-Monday, including some locally enhanced ones between 30-40 kts at FAY/RWI immediately behind the front between 03-06Z. VFR conditions are otherwise expected Monday through Thursday.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 424 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will consolidate and strengthen along a cold front that will cross NC today, then rapidly deepen while tracking up the coast up the coast of middle Atlantic and Northeast tonight into Monday.
Seasonably chilly high pressure will follow and extend across the Southeast through early to mid next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 350 PM Saturday...
A high amplitude upper trough, extending south from a low over Hudson Bay to the Gulf Coast, will sharpen as it shifts eastward on Sun. A few embedded s/w disturbances moving through the parent trough will further impact the progression and orientation of the trough. A pair of disturbances, one over the Deep South and the other over the TN/OH Valley, will lift ENE in tandem through the Southeast and mid-Atlantic late Sun/Sun night. The disturbances could help the trough become quasi-negatively tilted over the region. At the surface, a strengthening cold front will approach the Appalachians on Sun, then move into and through central NC Sun eve/night. An area of low pressure may develop along the front as it moves into the Carolinas. Expect both the front and low to move out of the area early Mon morning. Confluent SSW flow off the Gulf ahead of the front and SSE return flow around the Bermuda high will result in anomalously high moisture advection into the area. PWATs should increase into the 1.4 to 1.6 inch range through Sun aft/eve. There will likely be multiple rounds of convection, one moving in from the west early Sun and the other late Sun aft/eve into Sun night. Rain should be exiting the area to the northeast by daybreak Mon.
Severe Potential: One of the big questions will be how how far NW the warm front will retreat through the area, and whether or not the rain falling over the cooler air in the NW Piedmont will keep them locked into the stable side of the boundary. MUCAPE of generally 500- 800 J/Kg is expected across the area, highest across the south and east and peaking during the evening, although the forecast MLCAPE is slightly lower. The effective shear should be around 40 kts. There is at least a chance of thunder in the NW Piedmont on Sun, but the better chance for thunder and potentially strong to severe storms late Sun morn/early aft will be across the southern and eastern Piedmont. The second round of convection is a bit less certain wrt severe potential and overall character. While the convective parameters appear to maximize during the late aft/eve, it depends how much the earlier showers and storms work the environment over.
If storms are able to tap into some higher instability late, then additional strong to severe storms may occur.
In addition to the wind potential associated with the storms, wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are possible. Also, hi-res model guidance suggest there may be a brief period of stronger wind gusts, 35 to 45 mph, mainly over the Sandhills and Coastal Plain as the surface low and rain lift NE out of the area Sun night.
Precipitation: Confidence is increasing that rainfall totals could be in the 2-2.5 inch range by the end of the event, with anomalously high PWATs of 1.4 to 1.6 inches. While there is still a Marginal risk for isolated flash flooding, the system still appears fairly progressive and training of storms are not anticipated. Best chances for isolated flash flooding will generally be over the urban areas and areas of poor drainage. Lastly, have introduced a slight chance for a brief period of snow mixing in with the rain as the system lifts out Sun night. Confidence is relatively low, but the chance is there nonetheless. No impacts or accumulation expected.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 420 AM Sunday...
Lingering troughiness will be positioned over Quebec down through the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning, but the potent PV anomaly responsible for the storm system moving through Sun night, will have shifted up into VA/MD by this time. The parent trough will shift over the Northeast through the day allowing for westerly confluent flow aloft to overspread the area through Mon night. At the surface, this translates to a rapidly deepening area of low pressure off the Northeast coast while high pressure strengthens while shifting over the southern Appalachians. Strong and deep CAA behind the cold front will continue to mix down strong winds through the morning hours with NW gusts 25-30 mph. Due to the progressive nature of the surface features, the pressure gradient will quickly begin to relax Sun afternoon with gusts weakening to 15-20 mph then subsiding around sunset.
Highs will be 15-25 degrees cooler than Sun thanks to the cold fropa and strong CAA. Downsloping NW winds may offset the cooling a bit, but highs should only reach into the upper 40s to low 50s. A relaxing pressure gradient and period of calm winds underneath clear skies will lead to radiational cooling allowing lows to fall into the low/mid 20s across the Piedmont with mid/upper 20s in urban areas and the Sandhills and southern/central Coastal Plain.
.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 420 AM Sunday...
...Dry through the work week with low forecast confidence heading into the weekend...
Surface high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic will become reinforced behind a secondary cold front Wed night as an broad upper trough rotates through eastern Canada. The arctic airmass will be pushed through southern Mid-Atlantic as a nearly 1040mb surface high migrates into the OH Valley Wed into Wed night shifting over the Mid- Atlantic through Thurs night. Calm conditions underneath the Arctic high will result in the coldest conditions in the extended Fri morning with statistical guidance supporting lows in the 20s area wide.
Forecast attention shifts to the weekend as a mid/upper level closed low that becomes pinched off from the northern stream flow as upper ridging quickly rides over the top on Thurs. As which is often the case, forecast confidence decreases on the evolution of shortwave that is briefly cut off from the northern stream branch. GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance is understandably very broad with the mean 500mb flow during this time, but does show troughing in the vicinity of the closed low over the Four Corners Region that slowly meanders east into the lower MS Valley Sat into Sat night. Given the directed SW flow over the area as high pressure shifts offshore and broad low pressure develops in the northern GOM and tracking east with time towards the Southeast, support at least a continuation of slight chance PoPs into the area late Sat. Temperatures will trend towards near normal after the moderating Arctic high weakens and moves offshore late week into the weekend.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 115 AM Sunday...
Strengthening and increasingly moist southerly low-level flow over cntl NC will cause IFR/LIFR conditions and also LLWS to develop this morning, ahead of cold front now nearing the wrn slopes of the cntl and srn Appalachians. A lead, pre-frontal band of showers and storms are forecast to approach the Triad terminals around 10-12Z, then continue ewd and across the rest of cntl NC through the midday to afternoon hours. A secondary, narrow line of showers and storms are forecast to develop and intensify along the advancing cold front across SC and srn and ern NC, including at FAY, RWI, and perhaps as far west as RDU, early tonight, during which time a large area of post-frontal rain will otherwise blossom and overspread all of cntl NC.
Outlook: Strong and gusty nwly winds 20-30 kts will result behind the front tonight-Monday, including some locally enhanced ones between 30-40 kts at FAY/RWI immediately behind the front between 03-06Z. VFR conditions are otherwise expected Monday through Thursday.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KAVC MECKLENBURGBRUNSWICK RGNL,VA | 9 sm | 15 min | S 08 | 10 sm | Overcast | 63°F | 61°F | 94% | 30.04 | |
Wind History from AVC
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) Help
Petersburg
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:35 AM EST 2.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:45 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 08:11 AM EST 0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:43 PM EST 2.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:59 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:52 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 09:21 PM EST 0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:35 AM EST 2.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:45 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 08:11 AM EST 0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:43 PM EST 2.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:59 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:52 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 09:21 PM EST 0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.1 |
| 1 am |
| 2.4 |
| 2 am |
| 2.4 |
| 3 am |
| 2.2 |
| 4 am |
| 1.6 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 0.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0 |
| 9 am |
| 0.1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.7 |
| 11 am |
| 1.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 3 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 0 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.7 |
City Point (Hopewell)
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:05 AM EST 2.24 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:45 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 06:59 AM EST 0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 01:13 PM EST 2.70 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:59 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:51 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 08:09 PM EST 0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:05 AM EST 2.24 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:45 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 06:59 AM EST 0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 01:13 PM EST 2.70 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:59 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:51 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 08:09 PM EST 0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
City Point (Hopewell), James River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.1 |
| 1 am |
| 2.2 |
| 2 am |
| 2.1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.6 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.5 |
| 6 am |
| 0.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0 |
| 8 am |
| 0.1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.6 |
| 10 am |
| 1.3 |
| 11 am |
| 2 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.3 |
Wakefield, VA,
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