Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ebony, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 825 PM Thursday...

Minimal tweaks made with the evening update. Some passing high clouds will move through during the first half of the night, with clearing skies after that. No frost concerns anywhere tonight, with lows in the 40s most places (an isolated reading in the lower 50s is possible). Previous discussion follows.

As of 245 PM Thursday...

Mainly clear and mild tonight, mostly sunny and warm Friday.

The skies were sunny across the region this afternoon. After a chilly start, the temperatures jumped into the upper 60s to lower 70s after morning lows of 32-42. Surface winds were light and variable as the center of the 1025 mb surface high was located over the region. The center of surface high pressure will shift across the region and settle just off the NC coast late this afternoon.

Expect sunny skies this afternoon with highs very similar to those of Wednesday, with less wind. Winds will be light and variable from mid-afternoon into the evening. Highs generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s north to south.

The appears to be too much dry air to overcome tonight and the chance of low stratus in the east appears to be low. The flow does slowly become return flow, but moisture return should be meager through tonight. There will be some increase in high clouds late today and for a period tonight due to the passage of the cirrus to our west and north; otherwise, expect clear skies tonight with Lows mostly in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 245 PM Thursday...

Breezy southwesterly winds at 10 to 20 mph will bring much warmer air to the region beginning Friday. Highs around 80.

High pressure will be offshore Friday afternoon and night with good S-Sw return flow across NC. Ridging off the SE coast will become dominate. This will allow strong subsidence and warming beginning Friday. Highs in the 80-84 range is expected with SW winds 10-20 mph. Expect clear, dry, and mild conditions under high pressure Friday night with lows in the lower 60s (May-like and 12-15 degrees above normal for for 12z/April 19).

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 400 PM Thursday...

Tranquil weather and very warm temperatures will prevail this weekend. Some light precipitation chances return early next week, but widespread soaking rain is not expected.

As mid-level ridging peaks in strength and extends NE into the Carolinas on Saturday, a surface high will remain anchored just west of Bermuda. This pattern will S/SW low-level flow and well above normal temperatures. With ample sunshine and only some thin high clouds possible, Saturday's highs will be in the mid-to-upper-80s.
Fortunately, despite the warm temperatures, dew points shouldn't be oppressive on Saturday, mainly in the mid-to-upper-50s. Model point soundings indicate enough mixing for SW winds to gust to 15-25 mph.
Lows Saturday night will also be quite mild with increasing high clouds, in the lower-to-mid-60s.

Meanwhile, a deepening mid/upper low and surface low will move east across Ontario, Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes over the weekend.
This will push a backdoor cold front south into the mid-Atlantic on Sunday, and some guidance indicates it may try to creep into our far NE zones on Sunday evening/night, but it will have a hard time getting too far with the surface high still anchored to our SE. Even if it does make it, it looks dry, with the only effect being some briefly lower dew points behind it. A second mid/upper low and associated surface low will move NE from the Southern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night, dragging a cold front to its south and weakening/suppressing the Southeast US ridging. Despite this and some high clouds in advance of the front, Sunday's temperatures should continue to be very warm with highs in the mid-to-upper-80s. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper-50s to lower-60s.

The Great Lakes mid/upper low will then push E/NE into southern Ontario and Quebec early next week and weaken into an open wave, eventually dragging a cold front into central NC. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the front's timing and placement, but the bottom line is it does not look like it will be associated with a lot of precipitation, given a lack of upper forcing with the low tracking so far to our north. The GFS, ECMWF and CMC along with their ensembles have all slowed down the timing of the front on their 12z runs compared to yesterday. The GFS now depicts a passage on Tuesday morning and afternoon, while the ECMWF holds it off until Tuesday night. Thus Monday/Monday night's POPs have decreased to just slight, as guidance shows just a few prefrontal showers possibly reaching mainly our northern and western counties. Monday should still be quite warm ahead of the front with highs in the 80s.

POPs then increase to the 30-40% range on Tuesday with the front, lingering on Wednesday (highest south) as the front looks to stall and weaken. The front may then wash out or lift back north as a warm front late Wednesday into Thursday in response to a surface high moving east of New England and southerly flow returning. So continue some chance POPs on Thursday. Again, coverage doesn't look widespread, and ensemble mean QPF is only around a quarter inch or less each day. A few storms can't be ruled out each afternoon and evening, but instability doesn't look overly impressive, as ensemble probabilities of at least 500 J/kg of CAPE are mostly in the 30-50% range. At this time there only looks to be a slight "cooldown" behind the front, with forecast highs in the upper-70s to mid-80s from Tuesday through Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 125 AM Friday...

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hours TAF period. Very shallow moisture advection across the Coastal Plain through the overnight hours may result in periods of ground fog around sunrise. Confidence is slightly higher at RWI compared to FAY where upstream cross-over temperatures advecting into the region may be met as temps fall into the mid 40s. A steep surface inversion will slowly mix out throughout the morning hours, after which time WSW winds will increase to around 10 kts with gust up to 20 to 25 kts and flat cumulus around 4 to 7 kft are expected.

Outlook: Low-end MVFR cigs will be possible at GSO/INT Sat morning slowly lifting to VFR by the afternoon. A strengthening LLJ of 35 to 45 kts may result in marginal LLWS at all sites Fri night. Next chance for sub-VFR will come Monday from a slight to low chance of showers.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.