Saturday, February27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ebony, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 6:04PM Saturday February 27, 2021 4:41 AM EST (09:41 UTC) Moonrise 6:37PMMoonset 7:16AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 317 Am Est Sat Feb 27 2021
Through 7 am..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt early in the afternoon, then diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 foot. Patchy fog early in the morning. Patchy fog late in the morning. Rain in the morning. A chance of rain early in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain and snow after midnight.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ600 317 Am Est Sat Feb 27 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Weak low pressure moves north along the coast this morning. A series of weak systems will bring unsettled weather over the local waters into Monday. A strong cold front crosses the mid-atlantic region Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ebony, VA
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location: 36.57, -78     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 270849 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 348 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. A wedge of high pressure across interior NC will gradually weaken as a stalled front south of the area lifts slowly northward as a warm front through early Sunday. A cold front will cross the area from the northwest late Sunday night through Monday. Cool high pressure will then build into the area Monday night through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 345 AM Saturday .

Overview: In the wake of exiting sheared shortwave trough and downstream of an amplifying mid/upper level trough over the western US, subtropical ridging will expand north and strengthen over the SE US. Meanwhile, an area of weak low pressure, currently starting to take shape along coastal NC, will move north up the mid-Atlantic and NE US coast through the day. The attendant occluded front will likely remain draped across eastern and southeastern portions of the forecast area today, while the lingering CAD airmass across the NC Piedmont undergoes gradual weakening.

Today: Forecast is currently on track with the main batch of steadier rain starting to shift north and east of the area. In it's wake, trailing weak upper level impulses moving through the area will support intermittent light rain and/or drizzle, mainly across central and northern portions of the forecast area through mid morning. South of this area, fog, locally dense in some spots is expected through daybreak.

Thereafter, expect a mostly dry day, given the void in lift and increasing heights aloft/subsidence across the area. Forecast highs will be challenging, ultimately depending on the demise/partial erosion of the left behind damming regime, which will all likelihood be a top-down process via insolation and vertical mixing, which are the most complex and tricky. The exact location of occluded/warm front will also a play a role in afternoon highs. Will follow the classic CAD climatology/paradigm in keeping the NW Piedmont, under the continued influence of CAD, though in a weakened state. Meanwhile expect southern and centrals to break out. Sky coverage should vary from mostly cloudy NW to partly cloudy/mixture of sun and clouds in the SE. Expect a very sharp NW to SE temp gradient across the area, ranging from mid/upper 50s NW to mid/upper 70s SE, with some afternoon gusts into the teens.

Tonight: The arrival of some upper impulses within the energetic SWLY flow aloft could result in some isolated to scattered rain showers late tonight/early Sunday morning. Otherwise, it should be mostly dry with favorable conditions for widespread stratus/fog development, likely dense in some locations. Lows in the mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/. As of 400 AM Saturday .

. Unseasonably Mild and Breezy .

Largely shielded by the subtropical ridge centered off the SE US coast, the steady ribbon of strongest moisture transport and perturbed energetic flow will remain north and northwest of the area. The occluded front is expected to retreat north as a warm front Sunday morning, placing all of central NC within the warm sector Sunday afternoon. This will result in unseasonably mild temps in the lower to mid 70s north to upper 70s/near 80 SE. Strong heating/insolation such as this will allow us to tap into the strong 925 mb kinematic flow, resulting in breezy/wind conditions, with gusts between 25 to 35 mph.

As far as rain chances, the weak upper impulses moving through the area Sunday morning will likely provide our best chance of seeing rain showers. Otherwise, despite some weak destabilization across southern and southeastern portions of the forecast area Sunday afternoon, any appreciable forcing looks very weak with only isolated showers possible.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 350 PM Friday .

Sunday night through Tuesday: A surface low could develop along the front in the lee of the mtns over central VA Sunday evening, quickly lifting northeast toward New England Sunday night as the cold front moves into central NC. Lows Sunday night will remain mild (mid to upper 50s) and well above normal (in fact they will be close to normal highs). Current model timing of the fropa through central NC is late Sunday night through Monday morning and out of the area Monday afternoon. The best chance for showers will be along the cold front as it moves through the region Sunday night/Monday. Highs Monday should be near normal but some 15 degrees or so lower than Sunday, mid 50s NW to mid 60s SE. while lows Monday night will also be near normal in the 30s. Tuesday and Tuesday night will largely be dry as high pressure builds east into and through the mid-Atlantic. Highs are expected to be below normal while lows will again be near normal.

Wednesday onward: Significant model differences still exist for the extended forecast period. Do not expect the whole week to be a wash, though there will be one or two opportunities for rain through the end of the week. Exactly when and how much will depend on what model is closer to the truth. For now have leaned toward the ECMWF instead of the GFS as that seems to the be trend of WPC. As such, Wednesday would be the wet day as an upper low/wave moves through the mid- Atlantic (the GFS is quicker, less potent and farther south with the wave). Thursday looks dry, and the next upper low may impact the region late in the week/early over the weekend, but confidence is low at this time.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 115 AM Saturday .

The area of widespread rain is starting to move off to the northeast. In it's wake, periods of light rain/drizzle with areas of fog are expected through daybreak. Ceilings will remain in the LIFR to IFR range areawide, with a wide range in VIS restrictions across the area with models indicating the chance for dense fog across the eastern TAF sites(KRWI,KFAY and possibly KRDU).

LLWS will persist through mid morning across central and eastern NC, as a strong 35-40kt southerly level jet overrides the light NELY winds at the surface.

Otherwise, the widespread LIFR ceilings will eventually become MVFR and transition to VFR at RDU/FAY/RWI by mid to late morning at KFAY and KRWI and at KRD during the early afternoon. GSO/INT will likely remain MVFR through the period, though it's possible they could briefly lift to VFR late in the day/evening, before the re- development of sub-VFR conditions Saturday night. Winds out of the east-northeast will veer to the southwest tomorrow and gust up to 16 knots in the afternoon.

Outlook: MVFR/VFR ceilings Saturday afternoon/early evening will transition to potential widespread fog/stratus Saturday night. VFR should return Sunday. Some spotty VFR showers are possible Sunday, along with gusty winds from the southwest of 25-30 knots. Sub-VFR ceilings return Sunday night and Monday with another period of rain showers accompanying a cold frontal passage through the area. VFR is expected to return on Tuesday. Some showers and sub-VFR conditions are possible Wednesday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . CBL NEAR TERM . CBL SHORT TERM . CBL LONG TERM . KC AVIATION . CBL/Kren/Badgett


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 88 mi53 min SE 9.9 G 11 50°F 1020.4 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 90 mi71 min SSE 2.9 46°F 1022 hPa45°F

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Hill, Mecklenburg-Brunswick Regional Airport, VA9 mi46 minN 02.50 miOvercast39°F37°F93%1023 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAVC

Wind History from AVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:19 AM EST     Full Moon
Sat -- 03:42 AM EST     3.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:14 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:00 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:02 PM EST     3.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:01 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:30 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.41.42.32.932.72.21.50.90.40-0.10.212.22.93.232.51.91.30.70.2-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for City Point (Hopewell), James River, Virginia
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City Point (Hopewell)
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:12 AM EST     2.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:19 AM EST     Full Moon
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:13 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:48 AM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:32 PM EST     2.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:01 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:18 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.92.52.72.62.11.50.90.40-0.10.20.91.82.52.92.92.51.91.20.60.2-0.1-0

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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