Ebony, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ebony, VA

May 7, 2024 5:07 PM EDT (21:07 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM
Moonrise 4:38 AM   Moonset 6:57 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 339 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024

Through 7 pm - W winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.

Tonight - N winds 5 kt, becoming S in the late evening and early morning, then becoming sw late. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop, increasing to around 1 foot in the late evening and overnight. A chance of showers and tstms early in the evening.

Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.

Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.

Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot, increasing to 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.

Thu night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.

Fri - W winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.

Fri night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.

Sat - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot, diminishing to 1 foot or less and light chop in the afternoon.

Sat night - S winds 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop, increasing to around 1 foot after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 339 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a weak front meanders just to the north of the area this evening. A series of low pressure systems will pass along that front, resulting in chances for showers and storms each day through midweek. Outside of any Thunderstorm influences, marine conditions are expected to be mainly benign through Thursday. A stronger cold front looks to pass through Friday into Friday evening.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ebony, VA
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Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 071930 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 330 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure across the western Atlantic will extend into the Southeast through Thursday as a series of mid to upper-level disturbances move across the region on Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will move across the region late Thursday into Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As of 305 PM Tuesday...

* Convective coverage should be much more limited this afternoon and evening than previous days.
* A marginal/Level 1 threat for isolated severe storms remains in place this afternoon and evening but with limited coverage.

The latest surface analysis shows a stationary front extending west to east across the OH Valley that extends southeast into the northern Chesapeake Bay. A large region of surface high pressure extends from the southwestern Atlantic into the southeastern U.S.
The air mass across central NC remains moist with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s across much of the area with some upper 60s to near 70 in the Coastal Plain. Deep layer moisture remains above average with the morning RAOBS observing PW values in the 1.3 to 1.4 range. Latest mesoanalysis products note a moderately unstable airmass across the southern half of central NC with MLCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg while it is more stable to the north near the VA border with MLCAPE values in excess of 500 J/Kg and with modest mid level lapse rates. Water vapor imagery shows the slow moving shortwave trough with multiple embedded vortices beginning to exit eastern VA/NC.

A period of little to no precipitation is expected across central NC during much of the afternoon hours as narrow mid-level ridging aloft moves into the area along with some downslope flow develops just above the surface. Expect convective coverage to be much less than previous days. CAMs continue to suggest a general scenario where scattered convection develops to our west across the higher terrain over the next few hours with the storms making a run toward the western Piedmont during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
This convection should wane as it moves east and the evening wears on. With limited forcing,expect convective coverage to be limited overnight with noticeably less stratus and fog than previous nights.

The Marginal/Level 1 severe weather threat is conditional on whether deep convection develops or moves into the area. Forecast soundings note that deep layer shear will range between 25-35 kts along with instability that ranges up to near 2000 J/Kg, especially across the south and southwest. Given the profiles along with DCAPE values in excess of 900 J/Kg across the western Piedmont, the primary threat should be damaging wind gusts and possibly large hail with the greatest threat from 5-10pm.

Another muggy night is expected tonight with lows in the mid 60s to around 70. -Blaes

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 PM Tuesday...

* Severe weather threat has increased with a Slight/Level 2 threat for severe storms during the late afternoon through Wednesday night.
* Summerlike heat and humidity is expected with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat index values in the lower to mid 90s in many locations.

A transient and short lived mid-level ridge axis across the Carolinas early Wednesday morning will shift east and flatten during the day as a strong and active southwesterly flow extends from TX across the OH Valley into New England. This strong southwesterly flow will settle east/southeast closer to the Carolinas on Wednesday and Wednesday night transporting multiple disturbances into the TN and OH Valleys that will trigger clusters of thunderstorms.

SPC has upgraded the severe weather outlook for our area on Wednesday to a Slight Risk/Level 2 threat. With surface dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s and afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, the atmosphere will become moderately to strongly unstable with MLCAPE values of 2000-3000.
Strong deep layer shear of 25-30 kts with a favorable DCAPE environment will support a primary threat of damaging winds.
Large hail is also possible. Convection allowing models suggest that there may be two rounds of convection including one during the mid afternoon to mid evening driven by peak instability, differential heating and a weak lee trough with a second round of convection possible during the overnight as convection across the eastern TN Valley moves across the mountains and into NC.

Wednesday may be and/or feel like the hottest day of the year thus far in many locations with muggy highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and max heat index values in the lower to mid 90s in most locations away from the Triad and VA border counties. Lows Wednesday night could threaten record high mins with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. - Blaes

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

* Confidence remains low in Thursday's severe weather threat.
* Cooler/drier this weekend.

Thursday...
The anomalously deep upper low over the Central Plains will split on Thursday, with one portion migrating to the Desert Southwest, while the remaining energy will be absorbed into a trough over the Ohio Valley. As this takes place, a potent shortwave trough is forecast to eject eastward through the Southeast states and into central NC by mid afternoon. Synoptically, the ingredients should be in place for strong to severe showers and thunderstorms across the area with 40-50 kts of deep layer shear across the area, PW's approaching 1.8 inches in spots, MLCAPEs well into the 1500-2000 J/KG range, and a forcing mechanism in the form of a weak surface trough crossing the mountains. However, the forecast uncertainty is rooted in how much early morning convection (leftover remnants from Wednesday's Tennessee Valley storms) will disrupt things and stabilize the atmosphere later in the day. Should the day begin with widespread stratiform rain and extensive cloud cover, the severe threat in the afternoon could be lessened as MLCAPEs will likely be considerably lower. If remnant convection remains to the south or is largely absent altogether, severe weather will be much more likely.
Unfortunately, how things will play out on Thursday is likely not going to be clear until late Wednesday.

Confidence is relatively high for rainfall across the area and as such, I'll maintain the 60-80 PoPs across the area and work on pinning down the severe details as we get closer. Temps should reach the upper 80s to lower 90s but could be a category or two cooler if cloud cover persists through the day.

Friday...
Friday should see two shortwaves round the base of the upper trough and move into the area during the late morning/early afternoon hours. These are in advance of an approaching surface cold front, which is likely to get hung up west of the mountains and not arrive until late in the afternoon/evening. As such, PoPs will once again remain relatively high in the 40-50 percent range area-wide until the cold front sweeps the anomalously high PW's off the coast Friday night. The severe threat looks to be much less on Friday given the potential for cloud cover and mid level drying although it would not be surprising in the least to see a few stronger storms across portions of the Coastal Plain where temps will manage to make it into the lower 80s. Temps will be a bit cooler to the west, only topping out in the mid 70s.

Saturday/Sunday...
The upper low will remain north of the area this weekend, with northwesterly flow taking shape across the Piedmont. While there are some ensemble solutions advertising widely scattered showers at times this weekend, downsloping effects would likely greatly limit these chances and keep them confined to areas of the northwest Piedmont. PoPs have been trimmed to be 15 percent or less and really only over the far NW Piedmont locations. Temps should also be noticeably cooler with highs in the low/mid 70s. Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Monday/Tuesday...
A southern stream trough will approach the area on Tuesday. Ahead of the trough, temps will warm back closer to seasonal normals with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Add about 2-3 degrees to that for Tuesday ahead of the approaching wave which will also bring about a return of rain chances (20-30 percent PoPs)
to the area.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

Most of central NC is experiencing VFR conditions this afternoon although there are some patchy MVFR CIG restrictions in the Triad in some residual low stratus and across the southern Sandhills. VFR conditions are expected across most of central NC this afternoon and tonight as convective coverage will be more limited than during the past few days. There will be some convection however, a few, light VFR showers are possible across the northern Coastal Plain through mid afternoon. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the mountains this afternoon and this convection will approach and move into the western Piedmont and Triad areas late this afternoon and early this evening as they weaken. The convection should dissipate as it moves east across the northern Piedmont. Given the limited confidence and coverage will only include VCSH in the TAFs at KINT and KGSO for now but may amend later and include a tempo for showers between 22 and 02Z. Mainly VFR conditions are expected overnight into Wednesday morning with a few layers of mainly mid and high clouds. Don't expect much stratus overnight and just some diurnal cumulus on Wednesday. Southwest winds are expected through the period, ranging from 6 to 10 kts today with a few gusts to 16 to 20 kts with a light southwest wind tonight.

Outlook: Scattered to possibly numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected on Wednesday and Thursday with associated CIG and VSBY restrictions. Some storms may be strong to severe, especially on Thursday. Somewhat more limited convective coverage is expected on Friday and much quieter conditions with generally VFR conditions expected into the weekend. -Blaes

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
44041 - Jamestown, VA 78 mi37 min WNW 3.9G3.9 78°F 74°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 88 mi49 min NNE 1.9G8 72°F 29.75
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 90 mi82 min 0 77°F 29.7765°F


Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KAVC MECKLENBURGBRUNSWICK RGNL,VA 9 sm12 minWSW 0510 smMostly Cloudy81°F66°F62%29.82
KLVL BRUNSWICK MUNI,VA 18 sm12 minWSW 04Overcast81°F64°F58%29.77
Link to 5 minute data for KAVC


Wind History from AVC
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
   
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Petersburg
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Tue -- 03:44 AM EDT     3.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:24 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:18 PM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:19 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.9
1
am
2
2
am
3.1
3
am
3.8
4
am
4
5
am
3.6
6
am
3
7
am
2.3
8
am
1.6
9
am
0.9
10
am
0.4
11
am
0
12
pm
0.1
1
pm
0.9
2
pm
2
3
pm
2.8
4
pm
3.3
5
pm
3.2
6
pm
2.7
7
pm
2.1
8
pm
1.4
9
pm
0.9
10
pm
0.4
11
pm
0.2


Tide / Current for City Point (Hopewell), James River, Virginia
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City Point (Hopewell)
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Tue -- 03:15 AM EDT     3.60 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:12 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:48 PM EDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:07 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

City Point (Hopewell), James River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
1.7
1
am
2.6
2
am
3.3
3
am
3.6
4
am
3.5
5
am
2.9
6
am
2.2
7
am
1.5
8
am
0.9
9
am
0.3
10
am
-0
11
am
0.1
12
pm
0.8
1
pm
1.6
2
pm
2.4
3
pm
2.9
4
pm
3
5
pm
2.7
6
pm
2
7
pm
1.4
8
pm
0.8
9
pm
0.4
10
pm
0.1
11
pm
0.3


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of east us   
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Wakefield, VA,





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