Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ebony, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 7:58PM Monday August 19, 2019 10:18 AM EDT (14:18 UTC) Moonrise 9:25PMMoonset 9:07AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 935 Am Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 935 Am Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure settles over the area through mid week. A cold front approaches from the west Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ebony, VA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 36.57, -78     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 krah 191114
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
715 am edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
An area of high pressure positioned offshore will maintain a warm
and humid air mass over central nc through Thursday while a weak
surface trough remains stationary over the western piedmont. A cold
front will approach from the northwest late in the work week.

Near term through tonight
As of 350 am Monday...

a relatively moist air mass remains in place across central nc,
though not as moist as 24 hours ago thanks to a layer of drier air
aloft. This dry layer between 700 and 300mb projected to moist en
once again later today thanks to the approach arrival of a mid level
trough. This feature will back the mid level flow to a sly direction
and advect moisture aloft over central nc. While convection on
Sunday was fairly sparse, we should see a bit more coverage later
this afternoon into the evening hours thanks to the presence of the
mid level trough. Overall support is weak, however, so just
expecting 30-40 percent coverage with the greatest concentration
expected south of highway 64.

Abundant sunshine to start the day will give way to partly cloudy
skies as the atmosphere destabilizes. Afternoon temperatures will be
comparable to the past few days, averaging in the lower 90s. When
the humidity is factored in, heat indices along and east of highway
1 will reach 100 to 103 degrees.

Tonight, the bulk of the convection will diminish dissipate with
loss of hearing, though a stray shower or storm may persist until
midnight. Otherwise, skies will be fair partly cloudy. It will
remain warm humid with overnight temperatures in the low-mid 70s.

Short term Tuesday and Tuesday night
As of 350 am Monday...

while early morning fog and stratus will be absence from most places
this morning, we should see a bit more fog and stratus early
Tuesday, primarily over the southern-western piedmont. The presence
of a mid level trough overhead will enhance convergence along the
piedmont trough, leading to scattered convection by afternoon into
the Tuesday night. The bulk shear will be notably stronger, with
pockets of 20-25kts possible. This shear may be enough to result in
broken lines of convection, increasing the threat for a few strong-
severe storms producing locally damaging wind gusts. Currently do
not think the threat for strong-severe storms is worth a mention in
the hazardous weather outlook at this time since the expected strong
storm coverage expected to be isolated. If model guidance trends a
little stronger later today, then could see a mention in the hwo.

High temperatures Tuesday may end up a couple of degrees cooler
thanks to an uptick in cloud coverage. Highs should average near 90-
lower 90s.

Potential for a few showers and t-storms to persist well into
Tuesday night as the mid level shear axis aloft may strengthen
thanks to another S W passing to its north. In addition, a light
persistent low level sly flow will maintain replenish moisture in
the lower half of the atmosphere, leading to a greater risk for low
clouds patchy fog by early Wednesday.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
As of 345 am Monday...

a continued mid-level weakness will remain near ga sc Wednesday
morning bringing a slight chance of showers to the area. This mid-
level perturbation was already analyzed this morning on the 19.00z
500 mb chart near kjax. Latest run of the GFS and ECMWF bring part
of the wave through Wednesday morning and push the remainder of the
wave through Thursday. The predictability of this perturbation
remains low as it is located between a decaying mid-level ridge
across the central united states and another weak ridge east of
bermuda. For now have nudged pops up Wednesday to account for this.

Temperatures will persist above normal through Thursday with highs
in the 90s.

The main feature of interest in the long term is an approaching cold
front Thursday Friday. Widespread variability exists here as
multiple features will impact the eventual progress of the front.

The first of which is a deepening upper level low located near the
hudson bay. The latest run of the ECMWF has the wave deepening with
the trough axis oriented west east across manitoba and ontario.

This type of upper level orientation would favor the baroclinic zone
making it to north carolina. The cmc and GFS deepen the low more and
quicker than the ecmwf. The GFS has the low over the hudson bay
deepening to around 549 dam while the ECMWF has the low around 559
dam. What does this mean for the forecast? It means that an extreme
amount of variability exists. All of the solutions mentioned above
do bring the front through the area in some form though. The GFS has
the front stalling across the middle of north carolina Friday
afternoon, while the ECMWF has the front crossing central north
carolina Saturday afternoon. The cmc shows the front clearing
central north carolina Saturday. Given the wide range of solutions
here, have generally trended the chance of showers and thunderstorms
up Thursday through Saturday, while also lowering temperatures
slightly. Out ahead of the front Thursday, precipitation will be
likely across the western zones as a lee trough sets up and the
remnants of the 500 mb wave crosses north carolina. Friday into
Saturday the chance of precipitation remains elevated due to the
approaching front and multiple mid-level waves traversing the region.

Sunday, surface high pressure will be located across the
northeastern united states with the front located near central north
carolina. Latest solutions has some dry air working into the
northern zones Sunday evening, but given the close proximity to the
frontal zone have left the mention of precipitation in for Sunday as
of now. This will likely change as details on how far south the
front will make it come into better focus.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
As of 715 am Monday...

a warm, moist air mass will prevail across central nc through mid-
week. This will lead to the development of scattered convection each
afternoon. In vicinity of the heavier showers and storms, anticipate
sfc wind gusts 30-35kts, visibilities between 2sm-4sm, and broken-
overcast ceilings 3000-4500 ft. The threat of a shower or storm is
fairly equal across the board this afternoon, though difficult to
have confidence high enough to mention tempo in the forecast at this
time. Thus, will continue the mention of prob30 this afternoon-early
evening in proximity of the TAF sites. Otherwise, aside from a brief
episode of ifr MVFR fog and low stratus through 14z in vicinity of
kfay, expectVFR parameters through tonight.

Little change in the air mass Tuesday into Wednesday, though the
presence of a weak upper disturbance near by could enhance the
convective coverage each afternoon. Models are beginning the signal
that early low clouds fog will become more of an issue by early
Wednesday. The approach of a sfc cold front late in the work week
suggest an increased likelihood for early morning fog low clouds and
scattered convection during the afternoon and evening hours,
producing periods of MVFR ifr conditions.

Equipment
Gso upper air flights ( both 12z and 00z) have been scheduled
through 12z Friday.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Wss
near term... Wss
short term... Wss
long term... Bah
aviation... Wss
equipment... Rah


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 88 mi48 min SW 5.1 G 5.1 82°F 1017.1 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 90 mi48 min SW 1.9 83°F 1018 hPa76°F

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
Last
24hr
SE4
E6
E7
E8
E8
G11
E7
E7
E9
E7
G10
E5
E4
G7
SE6
SE6
SE7
S5
S3
SW4
SW4
G8
SW4
SW5
SW5
SW5
SW4
SW5
1 day
ago
SW4
NW5
NW7
W2
S2
SE3
E7
G10
SE15
SW3
SW10
S9
G12
SW6
SW6
SW11
SW8
SW6
SW5
SW4
S6
S5
SE1
SE2
S2
SE1
2 days
ago
W2
SW2
E7
G10
NE9
G12
E9
G14
E9
G12
E10
G14
E4
SW11
SW9
S8
G11
S10
S9
G12
S6
S4
S5
SW4
W3
W5
G8
W5
NW6
G9
W8
W7
W5

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Hill, Mecklenburg-Brunswick Regional Airport, VA9 mi43 minSSW 610.00 miFair83°F77°F85%1019.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAVC

Wind History from AVC (wind in knots)
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
Last 24hrCalmS3CalmS4S5CalmS6S3S3S3CalmCalmCalm------SW3----SW3CalmCalmS4SW4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS4SE10
G14
SE4CalmS3SW4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3
2 days ago--CalmW3CalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmS3S4CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--SW3SW5SW3SW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Petersburg
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:00 AM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:03 AM EDT     3.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:09 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:23 PM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
10.70.60.81.52.433.23.12.72.11.50.90.60.40.51.12.12.93.23.22.92.41.8

Tide / Current Tables for City Point (Hopewell), James River, Virginia
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
City Point (Hopewell)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:48 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:33 AM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:57 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:53 PM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0.60.50.71.322.62.92.92.621.40.80.50.40.511.72.42.82.92.72.31.71.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (10,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.