Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Monterey, CA

UPDATE
Issued at 940 AM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a deep trough of lower situated over the West Coast, with a secondary system moving inland across the Pacific Northwest. The imagery also shows very dry air aloft parked over California. Closer to the surface though, the marine layer deepened slightly overnight in response to the trough, and pushed farther inland this morning than yesterday. In fact, low clouds made it all the way inland to Napa and all the way down the Salinas Valley. That said, the low clouds are starting to retreat. While the low clouds clear from the inland areas, expect them to linger once again along the coast today. Otherwise, expect seasonal and pleasant day across the region, with temperatures similar to those of yesterday. Forecast is handling these trends well, so no update is planned at this time. Palmer

SHORT TERM
Issued at 1243 AM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026 (Today and tonight)

Interesting water vapor imagery overnight with a few weather features of note: impressive upper level ridge with monsoon moisture sparking storms over the Desert SW into the Rockies, a major hurricane Genevieve about 600 mi SW of Baja, and a weak dry slot shortwave trough sweeping through CA. While dry at 400mb over the Bay Area satellite fog product tells a different story.
While not continuous, a much more robust marine layer is present tonight with stratus expanding over the coastal waters and beginning to move inland.

Morning inland stratus will quickly fade and erode back to the coast by mid-morning. Today will be a preview of what's to come the next few days: fading marine layer by mid-morning with warming inland temps. Wouldn't be surprised one bit if stratus lingering along the coast for much of the day. Temperatures this afternoon will be similar to Tuesday along the coast/bays with highs 60s/70s (a few low 80s) and away from the coast/marine layer influence temps will creep upwards with highs in the 80s to near 100.

One thing that will remain the same this afternoon will be the winds. Given the temp difference from the coast to inland onshore flow will bring breezy to gusty winds again. Winds will be strongest this afternoon/early evening with gusts 30-40 mph.

For tonight: despite building 500mb heights and some areas of offshore flow we will see the marine layer again with coastal clouds moving inland. Thermal belts will remain active too.

LONG TERM
Issued at 115 AM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday)

The big highlight for the long term will be the building inland heat. Thankfully, onshore flow and lingering marine layer influence will keep coastal areas in check temp wise. The large upper level ridge currently sitting well to the east will build westward Thursday into the weekend. Generally speaking the forecast remains on track with warm to hot conditions across the interior with the hottest days being Saturday and Sunday.
Confidence still remains high enough to keep some marine layer influence limiting heat potential near the coast. One change to tonight's forecast update are the temps for Saturday across the interior, which have trended down. Still over 100 degrees, but not shooting for 110 across interior Central Coast. This drop did temper HeatRisk values a little bit. Regardless of that trend, still expecting Moderate HeatRisk to develop across the interior Thursday and persisting through at least Sunday. If you have outdoor plans Thursday through Saturday across the interior be prepared and follow some basic heat safety tips: Stay hydrated, Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles, and limit activities during peak heating. The slight downward temp trend could also be attributed to some beefy NW winds over the coastal waters this weekend. ECMWF EFI highlights the strong winds over the coastal waters, which could help to enhance upwelling.

Temperatures will ease a bit late Sunday through late Monday as the large upper ridge flexes south with a passing trough to the north. The upper level ridge rebuilds by Tuesday into Wednesday causing temperatures to rise again. Longer guidance and the CPC outlook shows another round of even hotter temps will be possible around August 5 through August 8.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1015 AM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026

IFR-MVFR stratus is dissipating across the coastal and Salinas Valleys, with patches of clouds hanging on at the immediate coastal region. Moderate onshore pattern winds with some strong gusts to 25 kt will develop this afternoon and evening, with some IFR-MVFR stratus returning to the SF and Monterey Bay regions, potentially down into the Salinas Valley, through the late evening and overnight periods. Stratus will dissipate through Thursday morning, near or just after the end of the 24-hour TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO... Lingering MVFR ceilings should mix out within the next two hours. Moderate west winds with strong gusts to 25 kt will develop through the afternoon and evening hours with the skies remaining generally clear through the late evening and early overnight periods, with IFR-MVFR ceilings returning after midnight.
Stratus should dissipate through Thursday morning with moderate to strong winds expected that afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... Stratus dissipation is imminent at SNS while MRY may remain socked in through the day. Considered making the MRY TAF sub-VFR through the TAF period, but moderate confidence that there will be brief scattering in the afternoon. Moderate west winds with gusts to 20 kt will develop in the afternoon, with widespread IFR stratus returning as the winds diminish overnight.
Stratus clearing on Thursday morning is expected near or slightly after the end of the TAF period.

MARINE
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1015 AM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Fresh to strong northwest breezes with near gale force gusts persist through the remainder of the week into the weekend. Gale force gusts with moderate seas are expected along coastal jet regions along Big Sur and Point Reyes. Additionally, gale force winds are possible for the northern outer waters by the end of the weekend. Tropical activity produces long period swell across the coastal waters into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The elevated fire weather threat will continue across portions of the area through at least this weekend. Overnight RH recovery will remain moderate to poor at locations at or above 2,000 feet with values between 35 to 50 percent, with some favored locations struggling to even reach 30 percent. This will be particularly true across the Mayacamas, highest peaks of the East Bay Hills, the Diablo Range, Santa Cruz Mountains, Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges. Nocturnal drying (rapid decrease in RH through the pre- dawn hours) may also transpire which will increase the burn period or time in which fire behavior may remain active. Afternoon RH will remain critically dry with values between 20 and 40 percent, with far southern portions of the interior Central Coast potentially seeing min RH near 10 percent. Energy Release Components (ERC) are projected to climb above the 95th percentile across the interior Central Coast. Individuals across the area are advised to avoid activities that may spark a fire. Fire crews are urged to exercise extra caution when executing any prescribed burns, especially where fuels, topography, and weather align.

BEACHES
Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Long period southerly to southwesterly swell of 16-18 seconds will continue to impact our coastline over the next several days, bringing hazardous beach conditions to the Central Coast and the San Francisco Bay Area. Sneaker waves and strong rips currents will be the primary conditions, with breaking waves up to 12 feet along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points, such as Santa Cruz, Pacifica, and parts of Stinson or Ocean Beach.
This can be particularly surprising when wave heights increase suddenly after a period of seemingly tranquil wave action. In fact, sneaker waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger sets (breaking waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times between them. Due to the long period, sneaker waves are powerful and can catch beachgoers by surprise, resulting in people and pets being swept into the cold, turbulent ocean. Rip currents are strong enough to pull even the strongest swimmers away from shore.
Check marine conditions before you head out! Swim near a lifeguard, if possible. Maintain a safe distance from the water, and stay away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Never turn your back to the ocean and if you have small children or pets at the beach, please keep an eye on them. Hazardous beach conditions are anticipated to persist through Saturday afternoon.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.