Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Monterey, CA

UPDATE
Issued at 904 AM PDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Foggy and overcast conditions continue across much of the Bay Area and Central Coast. Both the 12Z OAK sounding and Fort Ord Profiler show a deep marine layer between 2500-3000 ft. This matches well with the fairly extensive stratus coverage across the coast and interior areas. The marine layer is expected to remain fairly deep throughout today with low confidence that overcast skies will clear along the SF Bay Shoreline and along the coast. HRRR guidance indicates some potential for clearing across inland areas this afternoon/evening before widespread overcast conditions return overnight. Cooler conditions to prevail today as the weather starts to become more unsettled with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s across the interior and mid 50s to low 60s along the coast.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1224 AM PDT Wed Apr 23 2025

A shortwave trough is building over the West Coast, resulting in cooler temperatures and a deeper marine layer in the region.
Satellite imagery shows stratus developing along the coast from Point Reyes southward, moving inland into the Bayshore East Bay, across the Monterey Bay region, and down through the Salinas Valley and across the Gilroy-Hollister region. The enhanced marine layer will enable the stratus to develop further inland through the night, before the inland stratus gradually dissipates through the morning, while some coastal regions remain socked in through the day. Breezy onshore flow will develop this afternoon, with gusts reaching 20-25 mph through the gaps and passes. High temperatures today will top out in the upper 60s to the lower 70s in the inland valleys, and the middle 50s to lower 60s along the Bays and Pacific coast.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1224 AM PDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Thursday is shaping up to be pretty similar to today, with an uptick in wind gusts (reaching 25-30 mph through the gaps and passes) and a downtick in inland high temperatures (middle to upper 60s).

Friday and Saturday should see the arrival of a deepening upper level trough coming through the eastern Pacific. Confidence has continued to increase in the stronger model solutions and a potential cutoff low coming into California. Combined with a southward trend in the forecast track, the trend has resulted in an increase in PoPs throughout the region, especially south of the Golden Gate. The current forecast has PoPs rising as high as 40-50% Friday night and Saturday morning. Rainfall totals remain low; although the exact spatial extent of the rainfall is quite uncertain, we're not expecting totals above a tenth of an inch in the valleys and a quarter of an inch in the higher elevations.
Something else to keep an eye on: we're starting to see some indications of thunderstorm potential on Friday evening into Saturday morning, with NBM model output putting odds of thunderstorm activity as high as 10-15%. We'll monitor how the thunderstorm risk evolves over the next couple of days. As for high temperatures on Friday and Saturday, expect anywhere from the middle 50s to the middle 60s in the lower elevations, and the middle 40s to the lower 50s in the higher elevations.

Ridging should return after the trough moves out, with daytime highs rebounding to near the seasonal average in the early part of next week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 AM PDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Currently a mixed bag of VFR-MVFR across the board with stratus beginning to dissipate. Bayside and coastal terminals can expect to remain MVFR through the TAF period with low confidence on VFR ever being achieved. High confidence on low-end MVFR ceilings returning to all terminals tonight, lowest confidence on STS and whether fog or stratus will win out.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with westerly flow. Ceilings may briefly lift to VFR this afternoon, but confidence is low to moderate on that happening. The most likely scenario is that MVFR conditions and moderate westerly winds will prevail through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Low clouds will linger along the San Mateo Bridge Approach, particularly across the San Francisco Bay from SFO to OAK.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently MVFR with westerly flow at both terminals. Moderate confidence on a brief period of VFR for SNS this afternoon, otherwise MVFR conditions and moderate westerly winds will prevail through the TAF period for both terminals.

MARINE
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 904 AM PDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Strong northwesterly breezes and rough seas can be expected for the outer waters today. Conditions improve tomorrow with light rain chances Friday into Saturday. Strong northwesterly breezes and rough seas return Saturday afternoon.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.