SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Current water vapor imagery continues to show the same pattern that has plagued our area through the last few days. The main difference, is that the cut-off mid-level low is becoming visible with a swirl of moisture advecting back west over W MO and E KS. North of the mid-level low is a ridging pattern over the Midwest and a positively-tilted trough over the Northeast.
At the surface, not much has changed either, with a NW-SE oriented stationary boundary still draped across MO. A pressure gradient is also beginning to materialize over the Great Plains, increasing ESE'ly winds just slightly across our area.

Additionally, current radar imagery depicts showers are developing east of Hwy 65 within a regime of isentropic ascent.
As this lift advects westward, showers will gradually increase in coverage as they propagate to the WNW. These will dissipate through the mid- to late morning hours.

Low temperatures are on track to drop into the middle to upper 60s. Notably, Branson is a bit cooler than forecast, which may aid in more patchy fog development in that area this morning (30-40% chance for <1 mile visibilities).

30-70% chance of showers and thunderstorms today:

+What: After light showers from tonight dissipate in the morning, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop throughout the day (20-70% chance). A few thunderstorms could produce lightning, brief heavy rainfall, and wind gusts up to 50-60 mph.

+Where: The highest chance and coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be in the eastern Ozarks (50-75% chances). Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be more scattered west of Highway 65 (20-40% chances). These scattered storms west of Highway 65 will have the highest chance of producing heavier rainfall and gusts up to 50-60 mph.

+When: Rain chances in the eastern Ozarks will generally last from 5 AM to midnight. Higher coverage of rain will be before 1 PM with coverage becoming more scattered after 1 PM. Rain chances west of Hwy 65 will be highest from 2 PM to 9 PM tonight. Thunderstorms will be most likely during the afternoon and evening hours in all areas.

+Details: The upper-level low will begin to deepen through tonight and slowly lift NNW. Positive vorticity advection and isentropic ascent associated with the deepening low will force more widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms over the eastern Ozarks during the morning hours. Afterwards, daytime heating will generate 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE (higher values west of Hwy 65) which will bring the chance for scattered thunderstorms across our entire CWA Latest RAP model soundings depict a relatively deep moist layer all the way up through 600-700 mb with dry air above this layer and shallow inverted-V profiles below 850 mb. This sounding is representative of pulse thunderstorms capable of producing wet downbursts/microbursts, and is most prominent along the MO/KS border. The Ozarks Pulse Thunderstorm Index (OPTI) and Ozarks Pulse Severe Thunderstorm Index (OPSTI) pick this up with a level 3 to 4 out of 4 risk for pulse thunderstorms and a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe pulse thunderstorms west of Hwy 65. Therefore, any pulse thunderstorm will have the potential to produce lightning, brief heavy downpours, and wind gusts up to 50-60 mph, especially west of Hwy 65.

20-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday:

The mid-level low will begin to lift NE and phase with a wave coming off the Rockies early in the day Sunday. As it exits, lift will move eastward and promote scattered showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Ozarks during the afternoon and early evening hours (30-50% chances). As with Saturday, this environment will continue to be supportive of brief heavy rainfall and wind gusts up to 50 mph, though the magnitude of the threat is lower. OPTI is at a level 3 to 4 out of 4, with OPSTI at a level 2 out of 5.

During the short-term timeframe, highs will be in the upper 70s (eastern Ozarks) to upper 80s (MO/KS border) Saturday and in the lower 80s (eastern Ozarks) to lower 90s (MO/AR border) Sunday.
Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 60s and in the lower to middle 70s Sunday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

60-80% chance for above normal temperatures through next week:

After the shortwave exits our region, ridging will quickly build across the southern CONUS, allowing high temperatures to slowly warm to above normal through next week (60-80% chance according to the CPC Outlook). 850 mb temperatures of 23-26 C will advect into the region underneath the ridge. According to local climatology this will be above the 90th percentile for the end of July and beginning of August, and will support high temperatures into the 95-100 F range (25th-75th percentile bound). Indeed, the NBM forecast puts highs around 100 F along the MO/AR border Tuesday through Thursday. However, highs will be in the lower to middle 90s east of Highway 65 during the same timeframe. Additionally, the ENS and NAEFS ESATs continue to portray anomalous low-level specific humidity next week. NBM dewpoint forecasts are in the upper 70s (air you can wear!).
This will allow maximum Heat Index values to reach into the 100-110 F range. LREF members output a 40-60% chance for Heat Index values to be above Heat Advisory threshold (105 F) along the MO/KS border Tuesday and Wednesday. Comparably, low temperatures will be quite mild and provide limited heat relief.
Lows will be in the lower 70s (eastern Ozarks) to near 80 F (MO/AR border). Needless to say, heat will have returned and it will be important to be prepared if an advisory is issued.

During this time period, rain chances will stay below 30%. Most of the higher chances look to occur from the possibility of remnant MCSs diving through the NW'ly flow regime and clipping our northern and eastern counties. So while chances are low now, we will have to continue to monitor trends in case there is any shift in track of remnant MCSs that could increase rain chances on any given day/night next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 540 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Light patchy fog is impacting the BBG site. Several obs have dropped into the MVFR range. Given yesterday's visibilities dropping below 2 miles for a very brief period of time, have included a TEMPO group to address that possibility between 12-13Z. Otherwise, the fog will dissipate by 14Z.

The main hazard today at all TAF sites is scattered showers and thunderstorms between 19-02Z. Coverage today is expected to be higher than yesterday, increasing the chance that a TAF site is affected (30-40% chance). Latest model trends suggest JLN will have the highest chance of experiencing a shower or thunderstorm.
Additionally, the environment will be supportive for any thunderstorm to have the potential for lightning, brief heavy downpours, and wet microbursts creating wind gusts up to 50-60 mph.

Otherwise, mid and high-level clouds will be plentiful through the period with ESE winds at 5-10 kts.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.