Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kissee Mills, MO
November 30, 2023 5:47 PM CST (23:47 UTC)
Sunrise 7:05AM Sunset 4:57PM Moonrise 7:48PM Moonset 10:24AM
Area Discussion for - Springfield, MO
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FXUS63 KSGF 302308 AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 508 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Key Messages:
1. Widespread rain this evening into tonight. Forecast rainfall totals of 0.75 to 1.25 inches, with localized amounts up to 2.00 inches.
2. Scattered light showers and/or drizzle may persist through much of the day Friday, mainly north of I-44.
3. Warming trend and drier ahead next week.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Tonight: Radar imagery depicts scattered showers across the area this afternoon. An upper-level wave is nearing approach to the region, and will support additional lift over the area into tonight. As a result, coverage increases into the evening and tonight. Elevated instability will remain limited with this system, though a few stray thunderstorms may occur across southern Missouri. Additionally, occasional wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph will accompany the surface low as it lifts through the area.
An analysis of recent observations and model soundings depict an environment favorable for efficient rainfall. Precipitable water values around 1.00 to 1.20 inches are around the 90th percentile for late November. Taking a look at potential rainfall amounts, guidance is in good agreement that most of the area will see around 0.75 to 1.25 inches, with potential pockets around 2.0 inches. This is well represented in the Local Probability-Matched Mean (LPMM) on the recent HRRR guidance that shows pockets of 1.5 to 2.0 inches of rainfall.
No flooding is expected with this system given the dry antecedent conditions. Beneficial rainfall amounts are forecast to occur drought stricken areas of west central into central Missouri.
Friday: Expect the bulk of widespread rain to lift northeast out of the area early Friday morning. However, confidence is increasing in the potential for light showers and/or drizzle lingering through Friday afternoon. Confidence is highest along and north of the Interstate 44 corridor where guidance depicts the loss of cloud ice in the vicinity of low-level moisture and lift.
The persistent cloud cover and lingering rain chances sets the stage for a cool day with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Saturday-Sunday: Ensemble guidance depict the longwave trough holding across the Plains through the weekend with an additional quick moving shortwave on Saturday night. This may support light rain shower chances (20-40%) across central Missouri on Saturday night. Meanwhile, highs will range from upper 40s (north) to middle 50s (south) through the weekend. No rain chances in the forecast for Sunday.
Monday-Thursday: Heading into next week, WPC Cluster Analysis depict ridging developing over the western CONUS, with northwest flow aloft. This will support a warmer and drier pattern through next week. Temperatures are forecast to be above normal, with highs in the middle to upper 50s. NBM guidance depict highs in the lower 60s late in the forecast period, around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of the year.
AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 507 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Showers are currently moving across the area ahead of an area of of surface low pressure. The area showers will continue to move across the area the evening. There is some weak instability so an isolated embedded thunderstorm is not out of the question but coverage will be limited. IFR ceilings and visibilities will occur with the showers this evening.
As the area of low pressure moves through tonight gusty southeasterly winds will occur this evening into tonight. The showers may transition to more drizzle tonight into Friday morning. IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities will occur across the area tonight through Friday morning. Visibilities could be reduced to less than a mile at times in the drizzle tonight into Friday morning.
Low level moisture will remain across the area through the day on Friday. Ceilings should gradually start to increase Friday afternoon but will likely remain MVFR for much of the area. Winds will become more southwesterly during the day on Friday.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 508 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Key Messages:
1. Widespread rain this evening into tonight. Forecast rainfall totals of 0.75 to 1.25 inches, with localized amounts up to 2.00 inches.
2. Scattered light showers and/or drizzle may persist through much of the day Friday, mainly north of I-44.
3. Warming trend and drier ahead next week.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Tonight: Radar imagery depicts scattered showers across the area this afternoon. An upper-level wave is nearing approach to the region, and will support additional lift over the area into tonight. As a result, coverage increases into the evening and tonight. Elevated instability will remain limited with this system, though a few stray thunderstorms may occur across southern Missouri. Additionally, occasional wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph will accompany the surface low as it lifts through the area.
An analysis of recent observations and model soundings depict an environment favorable for efficient rainfall. Precipitable water values around 1.00 to 1.20 inches are around the 90th percentile for late November. Taking a look at potential rainfall amounts, guidance is in good agreement that most of the area will see around 0.75 to 1.25 inches, with potential pockets around 2.0 inches. This is well represented in the Local Probability-Matched Mean (LPMM) on the recent HRRR guidance that shows pockets of 1.5 to 2.0 inches of rainfall.
No flooding is expected with this system given the dry antecedent conditions. Beneficial rainfall amounts are forecast to occur drought stricken areas of west central into central Missouri.
Friday: Expect the bulk of widespread rain to lift northeast out of the area early Friday morning. However, confidence is increasing in the potential for light showers and/or drizzle lingering through Friday afternoon. Confidence is highest along and north of the Interstate 44 corridor where guidance depicts the loss of cloud ice in the vicinity of low-level moisture and lift.
The persistent cloud cover and lingering rain chances sets the stage for a cool day with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Saturday-Sunday: Ensemble guidance depict the longwave trough holding across the Plains through the weekend with an additional quick moving shortwave on Saturday night. This may support light rain shower chances (20-40%) across central Missouri on Saturday night. Meanwhile, highs will range from upper 40s (north) to middle 50s (south) through the weekend. No rain chances in the forecast for Sunday.
Monday-Thursday: Heading into next week, WPC Cluster Analysis depict ridging developing over the western CONUS, with northwest flow aloft. This will support a warmer and drier pattern through next week. Temperatures are forecast to be above normal, with highs in the middle to upper 50s. NBM guidance depict highs in the lower 60s late in the forecast period, around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of the year.
AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 507 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Showers are currently moving across the area ahead of an area of of surface low pressure. The area showers will continue to move across the area the evening. There is some weak instability so an isolated embedded thunderstorm is not out of the question but coverage will be limited. IFR ceilings and visibilities will occur with the showers this evening.
As the area of low pressure moves through tonight gusty southeasterly winds will occur this evening into tonight. The showers may transition to more drizzle tonight into Friday morning. IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities will occur across the area tonight through Friday morning. Visibilities could be reduced to less than a mile at times in the drizzle tonight into Friday morning.
Low level moisture will remain across the area through the day on Friday. Ceilings should gradually start to increase Friday afternoon but will likely remain MVFR for much of the area. Winds will become more southwesterly during the day on Friday.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBBG BRANSON,MO | 14 sm | 62 min | ESE 06 | 4 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Lt Rain | 50°F | 50°F | 100% | 29.80 |
| KFWB BRANSON WEST MUNI EMERSON FIELD,MO | 21 sm | 12 min | ESE 14G19 | 3 sm | Overcast | Mist | 50°F | 50°F | 100% | 29.75 |
Wind History from BBG
(wind in knots)
Springfield, MO,
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