Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 4:45 PM   Moonset 3:13 AM

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FXUS63 KSGF 200857 AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 357 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- High confidence in above average temperatures today into tomorrow (mid to upper 80s).

- Additional storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across portions of central Missouri (15-30% chances). Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with the strongest storms.

- Slight (2 of 5) risk to Enhanced (3 of 5) risk for severe weather Tuesday evening through Tuesday night. Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern (15-30% chances) with large hail (15% chance) and a few spin-up tornadoes (2-5% chances) being a lower-end threat.

- Potential for another round of severe weather Wednesday toward south-central Missouri (15% risk/confidence).

- Unsettled weather may persist through the end of this week and into Memorial Day Weekend (daily 30-50% chances for showers and thunderstorms).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 224 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

An MCS moved north of the region early this morning and another storm system was moving across eastern Oklahoma and far southern Kansas this morning. Most areas east of I-49 and south of Highway 54 only saw isolated showers.

As warm air advection continues through today, temperatures and moisture will be on the increase. Afternoon highs will climb into the middle to upper 80s with dew points in the middle 60s. This combination will allow for CAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg or greater range providing the fuel for showers and storms. This will play a part in providing for additional scattered showers and storms to develop again this afternoon.
This activity is expected to impact portions of central Missouri as an upper level short wave moves through the southwesterly upper level flow and a warm front moves north across the region.
Subtle short waves are forecast to move across Missouri allowing for additional thunderstorm potential development this afternoon and evening (15 - 30%) across mainly central Missouri generally north of the Lake of the Ozarks region. A few of these storms may be strong to severe with hail to quarters in size and damaging winds.

Rain should taper off and lift north of the Ozarks by late tonight allowing for a period of dry weather tonight through early Tuesday afternoon. Continued southerly flow will keep bringing moisture and warm air into the Ozarks Tuesday with highs in the middle to upper 80s again making for a warm and muggy day. Convective activity will be on the increase late Tuesday afternoon into the evening as a surface low moves across the plains through the day on its way towards the Great Lakes.
This surface low will push a cold front into the region. A 850MB low will also move along the same path allowing a 40-50kt low level jet to move over the region as well.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 224 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

The warm air and moisture advection ongoing Tuesday will set the stage for potential severe weather Tuesday evening into the overnight hours into Wednesday morning. Dew points are forecast to climb to around 70 degrees which will allow for CAPE values in excess of 2500 J/kg. Shear (0-6 Bulk shear 40-50 kts) will be ample enough combine with instability and frontal lift to allow for severe storm development. Initial storms may begin as supercells eventually lining out to a squall line. The one thing that may limit severe storm development is the lack of upper level support. This will be watched but if storms develop and can take advantage of all the fuel available hail to the size of golfballs, damaging winds to 60-70mph (the primary concern) and an isolated tornado or two may be possible.

The front will move into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning but is forecast to still be making its way trough the Ozarks into Wednesday afternoon before finally shifting south of the region Wednesday night. Ahead of the front, continued warm air an moisture advection will produce another day of temperatures in the 80s. while behind the front, highs will be in the 70s. As the front continues to make its way south, additional strong to severe storms will be possible, as CAPE 3000+ j/kg is forecast along with good shear (45-55 kts)
and upper level jet support.

Storms by this point look as though they will move along and parallel to the front which may lead to training storms. If this occurs, flooding will become an issue and WPC has the region in a Slight risk of flooding.

The pattern from Thursday through the Memorial Day weekend looks to change little with upper level southwesterly flow.
Periods of showers and storms are expected on a daily basis as short wave energy moves through the pattern. the expectations is that no day will be a total washout with periods of dry weather, but showers and storms will likely impact the region. There will be the potential for strong to severe storms to develop each day but timing and location will depend on shortwaves which will be a short term forecast issue.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Cloud cover associated with a storm system moving across the norther portions of Missouri will bring VFR ceilings through the day. A few showers and storms may also impact portions of the region mainly along and north of I-44 including the KJLN and KSGF airports into early this morning. After sunrise, convection looks to diminish with lingering cloud cover through tonight.

CLIMATE
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Record High Temperatures:

May 20: KSGF: 90/1964 KJLN: 92/1956 KUNO: 89/1964

May 21: KSGF: 91/1987 KJLN: 91/1987

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 20: KSGF: 71/1902

May 21: KSGF: 70/1902

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.

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