Kissee Mills, MO Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kissee Mills, MO

April 23, 2024 12:35 PM CDT (17:35 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM
Moonrise 6:56 PM   Moonset 5:10 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kissee Mills, MO
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Area Discussion for - Springfield, MO
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FXUS63 KSGF 231107 AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 607 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered shower and a few storms will occur this afternoon/ evening. Highest precipitation chances (50-70%) in central Missouri, decreasing to the southwest.

- Shower and storm chances return Thursday and continue through the weekend. There is potential for strong to severe storms Friday into the weekend, but confidence in details are still low.

- Above normal temperatures return this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Current Conditions & Synoptic Overview:

High pressure has drifted southeast and weakened its grip on the greater Ozarks region, allowing southerly winds to calm under the clear skies. An area of surface low pressure is currently located over southern Manitoba, making its way into the Great Lakes region and sending a cold front south through Iowa and into eastern Nebraska. An upper-level low is collocated with the surface low, and a low-level jet over the Plains is weakening as it converges along the axis of low-level frontogenesis in Iowa and eastern Nebraska.

Today through Thursday:

As this disturbance moves further southeast into the Great Lakes, the cold front will shift south into Missouri ahead of the upper- level trough. Along this front, rain showers will develop Tuesday afternoon, though how far into southwest Missouri these showers will make it is still unclear. The deepest/strongest portion of the front will remain to the northeast, so confidence in rain is higher the further you get into central Missouri. Recent models have been trending further and further southwest with precipitation, but coverage has remained spotty even with showers making it further southwest. PoPs northeast of Springfield along the I-44 corridor are in the 50-70% range, capping out at 20-45% for the rest of the forecast area, especially further south and west. No severe weather is expected with this system, with lighting chances remaining low in the 5-20% range. Accumulation, if any, would be below a tenth of an inch with these showers.

The cold front, despite bringing precip chances up, will be fairly weak in nature. Temperatures on Tuesday will reach highs of low 70s in central Missouri and mid-70s around the further southwest portions of Missouri and far southeast Kansas. Lows in the wake of the frontal passage will be in the mid-40s to around 50 into Wednesday morning. Temperatures look similar for Wednesday, with highs in the low 70s and overnight temperatures dropping into the mid-40s to mid-50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

First things first: on the temperature front (no pun intended), after Tuesday's frontal passage, things will warm up once again. Friday will range from low to mid-70s, possibly breaching into the 80s on Saturday, before a likely return to upper 70s on Sunday and Monday.

The boundary formerly known as the cold front from Tuesday will petter out and become stationary over Arkansas on Wednesday, surging back northward as a warm front on Thursday with the help of another developing low-level jet in the central Plains. Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder could develop early Thursday morning, with storms becoming more widespread through the day Thursday.
Chances of thunder increase as the day continues, but the corridor of strongest instability appears to stay to our west until Thursday night into Friday. Ensembles show >50% chances of CAPE of 1000 J/kg or greater near the Kansas/Missouri border by 15Z on Friday (the NAM gives a bullish 1800 J/kg, but I'm not buying that) which indicates that the deep convection will likely hinge on the timing, placement, and extent of the low-level jet by Friday morning.

One thing to starting look out for with the Thursday/Thursday night portion of this system is heavy rain and minor flood potential- PWATs above 1" are nearly guaranteed beginning on Thursday morning according to ensemble probabilities, with some indicating potential for PWATs of 1.25-1.5". Despite the storms on Thursday seeming sub- severe at this point, if they train or can sustain deep convection, they could drop a couple of inches of rain. As of right now, the heaviest rain appears to stay along and west of the northwest Arkansas/northeast Oklahoma border, but if the trough of this system doesn't deepen quite that far south, far southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas could end up within a bullseye of precipitation and get a couple of inches of rain.

Rain will likely linger through the morning on Friday, but the strongest weather will more than likely be associated with a low- level jet of 50kts+ moving east from the Plains into Missouri. With such strong winds aloft (spoiler, they only strengthen with height along the leeward side of the trough) and indications of bulk shear in excess of 50kts Friday afternoon and evening, all severe threats appear to be on the table. The location of that low-level jet will again determine the extent of the impacts for our area- right now, areas near the Kansas/Missouri border appear to be the most likely to receive severe impacts, but CAMs are just out of range, so more certainty with the evolution of this system is likely to come over the next few forecast packages.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday are their own beast to forecast- the synoptic features responsible for storms in the Plains on Thursday and Friday could essentially stall there, bringing us another day of severe weather and/or heavy rain, or it could remain south and west of the Missouri Ozarks. Predictability is frustratingly low once models reach the weekend, between location, strength, and timing of features aloft, richest moisture, and instability. Nevertheless, one thing that can be conclusively said about the forecast beyond Wednesday is that the pattern will become much more active.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

For the 12z TAFS, some mid and high level cloud cover will push into the area this morning. Best precipitation chances will remain north of the 3 TAF sites and have not made mention of any showers within the 12z TAFS as probabilities look pretty low.
Some gusty winds will occur ahead of a frontal boundary from late morning through the early afternoon with the wind becoming northerly behind the front and then light and variable this evening.



CLIMATE
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 26: KSGF: 66/2016

April 27: KSGF: 67/1899

April 28: KSGF: 68/1896

Record Precipitation:

April 28: KSGF: 2.19/1996

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KBBG BRANSON,MO 14 sm50 minWSW 10G1810 smClear72°F48°F43%29.98
KFWB BRANSON WEST MUNI EMERSON FIELD,MO 21 sm20 minSW 10G1510 smClear73°F48°F41%29.95
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Springfield, MO,



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