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FXUS63 KSGF 021715 AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1115 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Updated 18Z Aviation Discussion

Key Messages:

1. Chances for light rain showers today begin earlier than previously forecast; 30-60% chance begins this afternoon into tonight.

2. Warming trend and dry weather next week.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 158 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Orographic lift with continued 0-1 km moisture has allowed patches of drizzle to persist atop the Ozark plateau early this morning. Elsewhere, light fog has been observed. The current thinking is that the drizzle will wind down in the early morning hours as lift decreases and winds turn east then southeast.

One notable change with this forecast package is to introduce rain chances earlier than previously forecast. While the low levels have remained saturated (as evidenced by the drizzle), point soundings indicate the mid-levels saturate from southwest to northeast throughout the afternoon as a mid-level trough axis across the central Plains shifts east. Therefore, rain chances have been increased to 30-60% by the middle afternoon through the evening.
Accumulations still look to remain light, with forecast totals of a trace to a tenth of an inch. Instability will be almost non- existent, so no lightning will occur with this activity. RAP data suggest we start to lose cloud ice tonight with continued lift and low-level moisture, perhaps opening the door for additional drizzle, though this window looks small and conditional. This potential will continue to be monitored throughout the day. Due to this earlier arrival of rain chances and persistent cloud cover, high temperatures have been nudged down accordingly.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 158 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Sunday still looks dry for most if not all of the forecast area as a drier airmass moves into the region. Medium-range ensembles depict a mid-level shortwave digging into central Missouri Sunday night, and some members do initiate a few light showers across our northern CWA, so have maintained 15-25% rain chances.

Ensemble clusters continue to show good agreement in developing a prominent upper-level ridge across the western CONUS Monday, placing the region under northwest flow aloft and dry weather through mid-week. NBM percentile data support near to slightly above normal temperatures through this period.

Upper-level flow is progged to become more zonal Thursday into Friday, with indications of a deep longwave trough digging across the west toward the end of the forecast period. A warming trend and above normal temperatures appear likely heading into next weekend.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Clouds continue to hold across the area with IFR ceilings. MVFR to IFR ceilings continue through much of the TAF period as another system slides through the region. Scattered light showers will accompany the system late this afternoon into the early evening.
Expect reduced visibilities to around four miles within this activity. Clouds slowly exit the region late in the TAF period.
Meanwhile, light winds at 5 to 10 knots out of the south/southeast this afternoon, becoming westerly into tonight.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

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